In the past two years a number of space startups as well as established companies have shifted their work focus from getting NASA or commercial contracts to pursuing projects from the War Department.

The best example of this has been Sierra Space, which until three years ago was entirely focused on building a Dream Chaser reusable mini-shuttle to bring cargo to and from ISS, as well as partnering with Blue Origin to build their proposed Orbital Reef space station.

Then, in late 2023 the company underwent a major management and staffing shake-up aimed at winning military and national security contracts. At the same time work on its LIFE inflatable module — intended for Orbital Reef — practically ceased, while the effort to get Dream Chaser finished seemed to slow to a crawl, eventually causing NASA to drop it as an ISS cargo vehicle.

Sierra Space however is only one example. During this time Rocket Lab shifted its focus somewhat to the military in developing HASTE, its suborbital test version of its Electron rocket, in order to win substantial hypersonic test contracts from the Pentagon. And then there’s Tory Bruno, who quit his job as CEO of the rocket company ULA to take a job at Blue Origin heading a national security team aimed at winning that company military contracts.

So what has caused this shift? Has investment in the civil space industry dried up?

Hardly. The number of rocket startups continues to grow, fueled by the many new and established satellite companies planning constellations of tens of thousands to millions of satellites as well as the orbiting manufacturing possibilities presented by the five space stations under development. There is a lot of investment capital pouring into these efforts

The reason for this shift — which really isn’t so much a shift but a new focus that many companies are adding to their portfolio — is provided by an article today in Air & Space Forces Magazine, describing the War Department’s recent decision to add $10 billion to the budget of its Golden Dome project, raising it to $185 billion, while noting this:

The Pentagon envisions Golden Dome as a vast network of sensors, satellites, and interceptors designed to protect the United States from missile threats. During a White House briefing last May, President Donald Trump—who has championed Golden Dome as a signature defense project since the start of his second term—said the program would cost $175 billion and would field an initial capability by 2028.

Since then, some analysts have released estimates that are much higher. Todd Harrison from the American Enterprise Institute has projected costs ranging anywhere from $250 billion to $2.4 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the cost at $542 billion. The cost of widespread space-based interceptors in particular is seen as likely to be high.

A new gold rush, in space

To put this bluntly, the space industry heard these numbers and immediately responded like the 49’ers during the 1850s gold rush: “Thar’s gold in dem hills!”

Nothing I am noting here is breaking news. It has been obvious within the space industry now for more than a year. I just decided it was important to document these facts here on Behind the Black, so that my readers would have the larger context of what is happening in the industry.

While at first this shift appears as if it is going to hurt the commercial side of this industry, that is a short-sighted view. Every technological development and contract won for the military will help fuel the work in commercial areas. We should see strong growth across the entire industry, making the establishment of lunar and Mars colonies easier, not harder.

All of this assumes of course that the U.S. doesn’t go bankrupt due to the ungodly debt being created by this kind of federal spending. It also assumes the Democrats won’t regain power, shutting it all down to spend money instead on aiding the worst sort of Muslim terrorists, allowing unlimited immigration from those terrorist nations, funding the queer agenda, and finally working to establish of a new Soviet nation, here in the United States — all goals that Democrats in the past two years have publicly, aggressively, and repeatedly announced as their ambition.

Stay tuned. The next few years should be very very interesting.