First manned Starliner flight delayed
Boeing has revealed that the first manned flight of Starliner will be delayed until 2018.
This delay for Boeing is not really a surprise. Unlike SpaceX, the company had done very little actual development work on the capsule before winning its contract from NASA. They therefore have a lot more to do to become flight worthy. My one worry is their contract. If the contract is fixed price, as with the original cargo contracts awarded SpaceX and Orbital ATK, Boeing will have no incentive to delay, as they won’t be paid anything until they achieve specific milestones and will get no additional monies to cover the added costs of the delay. If the contract is cost-plus, however, NASA’s traditional contract system used for SLS, Orion, and almost every other boondoggle since the 1960s, then Boeing will be paid regardless of the delay, and NASA will also be on the hook for paying the additional delay costs, thus giving Boeing an incentive to slow walk the construction.
I think the contract was fixed-price, but am not sure. Anyone out there have an answer?
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Boeing has revealed that the first manned flight of Starliner will be delayed until 2018.
This delay for Boeing is not really a surprise. Unlike SpaceX, the company had done very little actual development work on the capsule before winning its contract from NASA. They therefore have a lot more to do to become flight worthy. My one worry is their contract. If the contract is fixed price, as with the original cargo contracts awarded SpaceX and Orbital ATK, Boeing will have no incentive to delay, as they won’t be paid anything until they achieve specific milestones and will get no additional monies to cover the added costs of the delay. If the contract is cost-plus, however, NASA’s traditional contract system used for SLS, Orion, and almost every other boondoggle since the 1960s, then Boeing will be paid regardless of the delay, and NASA will also be on the hook for paying the additional delay costs, thus giving Boeing an incentive to slow walk the construction.
I think the contract was fixed-price, but am not sure. Anyone out there have an answer?
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
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Fixed-price milestone-based.
Excellent. Thank you. Do you have a source?
Here’s a link to a search results page from Doug Messier’s Parabolic Arc. The search predicate I used was “Boeing Commercial Crew Milestones.” The most recent stories seem to be from about two years ago, though I didn’t look at them all and they did not come out in chronological order. But Boeing’s contract is plainly a fixed-price-per-milestone deal. The milestones are described in some detail.
So, yes, it seems Boeing will eat the cost of the Starliner delay.
“Do you have a source?”
In this case my source is me. But you probably want something more definitive.
OK, how about…
18–COMMERCIAL CREW TRANSPORTATION CAPABILITY CONTRACT – CCTCAP – BOEING
“The contract contains three Contract Line Item Numbers (CLINs) for each effort:
CLIN 001 Fixed Price Core Contract for DDTE/Certification
CLIN 002 Fixed Price IDIQ for Post Certification Missions (PCM)
CLIN 003 Fixed Price IDIQ for Special Studies”
BTW, a preview function would be helpful.
BTW, the length of the delay is not being widely reported. It’s currently about four months, from Oct 2017 to Feb 2018. Boeing’s current schedule is:
Oct 17 Pad abort test
Dec 17 Unmanned flight test
Feb 18 Manned flight test
I’m hearing SpaceX had a slightly bigger slip, but they didn’t announce it. Echoes of the CRS-2 contract, where Boeing announced that they had been eliminated, but Lockheed never did, even though they had been eliminated five months before Boeing. Each company chooses differently what information to share.