Author: Robert Zimmerman

Rocket Lab’s shares lose 10% because of a negative assessment by stock analyst

9:53 am

Because one stock market analyst, Bleeker Street Research (BS) this week issued a negative assessment of Rocket Lab’s schedule for launching its new Neutron rocket, the company’s shares have lost about 10% of their value in the past few days.

In the report, BSR opines that while Rocket Lab has captivated investors with the promise of Neutron, its research shows the promise is built on shaky ground.

BSR believes the Neutron launch won’t take place until mid-2026, and could be delayed until mid-2027. Engine development, structure production, Wallops Island in Virginia, USA, launch pad construction, and transporting Neutron to the site are all factors cited by BSR as driving the delay.

BSR also questioned whether Rocket Lab could get its launch price of $50-$55 million.

Delays in launching a new rocket are to be expected, though as of now Rocket Lab has not indicated any issues that would preclude their predicted first Neutron launch in 2025.

One wonders if this report is merely the typical price manipulation you see all the time from stock market honchos. Issue a negative report which causes the price to drop, and then use that drop to buy up shares at discount prices.

At the same time, the analysis could be correct, though it depends on unnamed sources.

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AST SpaceMobile successfully tests cell-to-satellite calls transmitting video

9:37 am

According to press releases from both Verizon and AT&T on February 24, 2025, each has successfully tested cellphone-to-satellite video calls using the first set of satellites in AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellite constellation. From ATT:

AT&T and AST SpaceMobile have successfully completed a video call by satellite over AT&T spectrum using the BlueBird satellites launched last September. These are the same satellites that will be used to start commercial service.

From Verizon:

Verizon and AST have yet again pushed the boundaries of what can be done with mobile devices by successfully trialing a live video call between two mobile devices with one connected via satellite and the other connected via Verizon’s terrestrial network connection.

The satellites will essentially act like cell towers in space, filling in all dead spots not reached by ground-based towers.

AST’s constellation is competing with Starlink, which has signed T-Mobile for its service. In addition, Eutelsat-Oneweb has just successfully tested using its satellite constellation for the same purpose.

I suspect that in time, when these satellite systems have been thoroughly tested and have become operational, they will allow these phone networks to begin decommissioning their cell towers on Earth, thus reducing their costs significantly and thus lowering the cost to their customers.

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Lucy takes first picture of its next target asteroid

9:12 am

Lucy's future route through the solar system
Lucy’s route to the asteroids. Click for original blink animation.

The asteroid probe Lucy, on its way to the orbit of Jupiter to study numerous Trojan asteroids, has taken its first picture of the the main asteroid belt asteroid Donaldjohanson, which it will pass within 600 miles on April 20, 2025.

The map to the right shows the spacecraft’s looping route to get to the Trojans, with that image of Donaldjohanson in the lower right. Though the asteroid is about two miles side, it will remain an unresolved point of light until the day of the fly-by. This image was taken from a distance of 45 million miles. As for the asteroid’s name:

Asteroid Donaldjohanson is named for anthropologist Donald Johanson, who discovered the fossilized skeleton — called “Lucy” — of a human ancestor. NASA’s Lucy mission is named for the fossil.

After this encounter, Lucy will head to the Trojans, where it will visit its first six asteroids (including two binaries) in 2027-2028.

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The Europa Clipper team prepares for Mars fly-by

8:52 am

Europa Clipper's route to Jupiter
Click for original image.

As planned, Europa Clipper is set to do a very close fly-by of Mars on March 1, 2025, zipping past the red planet at a speed of 15.2 miles per second only 550 miles above its surface. The graphic to the right shows the spacecraft’s planned route to Jupiter, including an additional fly-by of Earth in 2026.

During this first fly-by the science team will test two of Europa Clipper’s instruments.

About a day prior to the closest approach, the mission will calibrate the thermal imager, resulting in a multicolored image of Mars in the months following as the data is returned and scientists process the data. And near closest approach, they’ll have the radar instrument perform a test of its operations — the first time all its components will be tested together. The radar antennas are so massive, and the wavelengths they produce so long that it wasn’t possible for engineers to test them on Earth before launch.

The spacecraft launched with transistors not properly hardened for the hostile environment around Jupiter. Engineers claimed these would “heal” themselves once in Jupiter orbit. No word on whether there has been any issue from these components since launch.

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February 25, 2025 Quick space links

3:16 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • On this day in 1969, Mariner 6 was launched on a Mars flyby mission
    Like the previous fly-by mission, Mariner 4, and Mariner 6’s parallel mission, Mariner 7 and launched at approximately the same time, Mariner 6 focused on getting images of the dark areas of Mars as seen from Earth, which we now know are the Martian cratered highlands. Thus, all these missions suggested quite incorrectly that Mars was just like the Moon.
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Pushback: North Carolina University quickly backs down when challenged over its remaining DEI policies

2:03 pm

NC State: Maybe rotten to the core
NC State: Rotten to the core?

The tide really is turning: Two weeks ago I reported the effort by Stephen Porter, a professor at North Carolina State University, to force it to eliminate Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs (DEI) from its many policies. Porter had been ostracized and demoted by its faculty and staff back in 2021 for daring to question these policies then, but managed to keep his job.

Though the university had claimed in 2023 it had dropped DEI and instead instituted a “institutional neutrality” policy, Porter had no trouble finding DEI requirements and webpages still scattered everywhere in its rulebooks and webpages.

He decided to go to war, to file complaints with the NC Board of Governors about four different violations of its own “institutional neutrality” policy.

To his surprise, less than two weeks later the university responded somewhat positively. First, the university eliminated DEI from its overall strategic plan. That this hadn’t been done earlier either indicates sloppiness and incompetence by NC State’s administration, or a real reluctance to eliminate DEI. Either way, they have finally done so.

Second, they have quickly removed the still standing DEI websites that Porter had cited in his complaint.
» Read more

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Curiosity looks uphill into canyon

1:10 pm

Panorama taken on February 23, 2025
Click for full resolution. For original images, go here and here.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

The panorama above, reduced and sharpened to post here, was created by me from two photographs taken on February 23, 2025 (here and here) by the left navigation camera on the Curiosity rover on Mars.

The overview map to the right provides the context. The blue dot marks Curiosity’s present position, with the white dotted line its past travels and the red dotted lines its planned route. The yellow lines indicate the approximate area covered by the panorama above.

Several things to note. The boxwork indicated on lower left of the overview map is the rover’s next major geological target. Though the rover team has made no announcement of a major route change, they have clearly diverged from that route by heading south and uphill into this canyon.

In reviewing the interactive map, I have not found any really good route up to the boxwork, other than this canyon. My guess is that the rover team is scouting it out as a possible new route. The panorama above is part of that scouting, and it certainly suggests that the canyon would be a good way to go.

They might also be considering this change because the old route would take them downhill, which would only have them studying geological layers they have already seen up close in Curiosity’s earlier travels. The team might have decided to forego the old route because it would not only look at geology already documented, it would add stress to Curiosity’s already stressed wheels. Since it appears the terrain up hill is going to continue to be this rough for as far as the eye can see, they likely decided it was better to move into unexplored geology now rather than later.

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Australia’s government proposes subsidies to build spaceport in Western Australia

10:28 am

Australian spaceports
Proposed commercial spaceports in Australia

The Labor Party that presently runs Australia has now proposed a $2 million program to “develop a business case” for a spaceport in the generally unpopulated state of Western Australia.

The red arrow and two X’s on the map to the right shows three potential locations. The Eucla and Christmas Island locations have been proposed by a private startup dubbed Space Angel. The Albany location has been proposed by a different startup called WA Australia.

At present, only the Bowen spaceport on Australia’s eastern coast has all its license approvals to do orbital launches, with the first now scheduled for mid-March. Southern Launch however has been a suborbital launch site for decades, and is also where many spacecraft returning from space have landed.

That the present leftist Australian government is considering a program to encourage new spaceports at these other locations instead makes me wonder if there isn’t a bit of political quid-pro-quo going on. Why favor these new locations in Western Australia exclusively? Why not offer this program to all the spaceports? I am especially suspicious of this proposal considering the regulatory burden the Labor government has placed on those other eastern spaceports, delaying approvals for years.

With so many commercial Australia spaceport proposals however suggests the political pressure to ease those regulations might be soon forthcoming.

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New calculations now say asteroid 2024 YR4 will almost certainly not hit the Earth in 2032

9:49 am

According to an announcement from NASA yesterday, the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth in 2032 is now reduced to 0.004%, meaning that it almost certainly not a threat at that time.

There remains a 1.7% chance it will instead impact the Moon in 2032.

These refined calculations were likely achieved by looking not at the asteroid itself (it is now too far away), but at places where it might have been visible to ground-based telescopes in the past, assuming it had an orbit that will hit the Earth in 2032. Since those past observations did not see it, those orbits are thus eliminated, and the threat goes down.

Of course, the uncertainty remains. It also remains important that we obtain more detailed information about this asteroid, because it is still a potential threat to the Earth.

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More changes in NASA’s upper management

9:40 am

NASA yesterday announced more changes in its upper management, almost all related to its manned Artemis program.

NASA announced today that Johnson Space Center Director Vanessa Wyche is now Acting Associate Administrator, succeeding Jim Free who retired over the weekend. Cathy Koerner, who has been leading the mission directorate that manages the Artemis program, will retire this Friday. Her Deputy, Lori Glaze, will take over on an acting basis.

These are not major changes. The new appointees, Wyche and Glaze, have been upper managers for a long time within NASA’s manned management structure that has created the present Artemis program.

These changes are also tentative depending on what Jared Isaacman decides to do once he is confirmed by the Senate as the actual administrator, replacing Janet Petro, who was named last week as the acting administrator. If Isaacman and Trump decide on canceling SLS and restructuring the entire Artemis program, both might also decide it needs an entirely new management staff.

I must also note the lack of any men in this list. NASA’s DEI effort for decades as apparently left no guys in that upper management, or if they are there, it continues to push them aside to support DEI racial and sex quotas, even though it now does not use those terms.

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