About 300K excess deaths in 2020 based on untrustworthy CDC data
Two different analyses today took a closer look at the Johns Hopkins report last week that claimed there were no excess deaths in 2020, despite the COVID-19 epidemic.
Though I remain unconvinced that the Wuhan virus is the plague that the fear-mongers keep claiming, the first story makes a good argument, using CDC statistics, that there have been excess deaths in 2020, though this same analysis makes no claim as to the cause of those excess deaths. The conclusion:
Using the latest CDC data, we can know [the number of excess deaths] with relative precision for 2020 through the week ended September 16.
For the calendar years 2014-2019, through September 16, the average number of deaths from all causes (adjusted for population growth) was 1,991,648. For 2020 through September 16, the number of deaths from all causes was 2,302,633. This means that over the first 37 weeks of 2020, there were 310,985 more deaths in the United States than should be expected based on the averages from the six preceding years.
The fact that 310,000 people in the United States are dead who would likely still be alive in any ordinary year means, at the very least, we are not dealing with a hoax.
The author also makes it very clear that in doing this analysis he is not trying to justify the government’s dictatorial response to COVID-19. His analysis also does not tell us how many of these excess deaths are from those measures, instead of COVID-19 itself. He also does not factor in the reality that the number of deaths each year are going to go up regardless, as the population increases.
Nonetheless, his analysis is useful in providing a sense of the scale of the disaster of 2020. Compared to some of the worst past epidemics, these numbers are relatively low, and remained confined to the older and already sick population. They certainly do not justify the panic that has ensued.
The second article underlines the political nature of the panic, pointing out that, based on the apparent and completely unrealistic drop in deaths from heart disease as noted in the Johns Hopkins report, the numbers still appear cooked, and unreliable. The author notes:
But her analysis led to yet another revelation when she examined the 2020 data during the same period, because COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was peculiar because heart disease is generally the leading cause of death. She finally discovered the truth: when she compared the frequency of deaths per cause during that period, she learned that as opposed to the predicted increase across all causes, there was a statistically significant decrease in deaths attributed to heart disease.
The most revealing finding is that “[t]his trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years” and, most suspicious, “the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19.”
We should generally be skeptical when we see an overwhelming consensus among scientists, be it in the politically jaded world of climate change or, indeed, COVID-19. The unavoidable conclusion is that the statistics are fundamentally misleading and that for what appears to be political reasons, deaths from other diseases are being categorized as COVID-19 deaths.
Even if there is a lag in reporting of statistics from the CDC, that would not account for this data. There is no justification for the drop in heart attacks deaths, unless those deaths are being improperly assigned to COVID-19, and thus warping the data and making it less trustworthy.
All told, the data now (as well as from the very beginning of the epidemic in March) continues to tell us that some response to COVID-19 was certainly warranted. The data however still suggests that the actual response was inappropriate and a panicked over-reaction that not only did not address the problem properly, but very likely worsened it. In fact, there remains ample evidence — such as placement of infected patients in nursing homes in many states — that the response itself, not COVID-19, might have caused a large bulk of this year’s excess deaths.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Two different analyses today took a closer look at the Johns Hopkins report last week that claimed there were no excess deaths in 2020, despite the COVID-19 epidemic.
Though I remain unconvinced that the Wuhan virus is the plague that the fear-mongers keep claiming, the first story makes a good argument, using CDC statistics, that there have been excess deaths in 2020, though this same analysis makes no claim as to the cause of those excess deaths. The conclusion:
Using the latest CDC data, we can know [the number of excess deaths] with relative precision for 2020 through the week ended September 16.
For the calendar years 2014-2019, through September 16, the average number of deaths from all causes (adjusted for population growth) was 1,991,648. For 2020 through September 16, the number of deaths from all causes was 2,302,633. This means that over the first 37 weeks of 2020, there were 310,985 more deaths in the United States than should be expected based on the averages from the six preceding years.
The fact that 310,000 people in the United States are dead who would likely still be alive in any ordinary year means, at the very least, we are not dealing with a hoax.
The author also makes it very clear that in doing this analysis he is not trying to justify the government’s dictatorial response to COVID-19. His analysis also does not tell us how many of these excess deaths are from those measures, instead of COVID-19 itself. He also does not factor in the reality that the number of deaths each year are going to go up regardless, as the population increases.
Nonetheless, his analysis is useful in providing a sense of the scale of the disaster of 2020. Compared to some of the worst past epidemics, these numbers are relatively low, and remained confined to the older and already sick population. They certainly do not justify the panic that has ensued.
The second article underlines the political nature of the panic, pointing out that, based on the apparent and completely unrealistic drop in deaths from heart disease as noted in the Johns Hopkins report, the numbers still appear cooked, and unreliable. The author notes:
But her analysis led to yet another revelation when she examined the 2020 data during the same period, because COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was peculiar because heart disease is generally the leading cause of death. She finally discovered the truth: when she compared the frequency of deaths per cause during that period, she learned that as opposed to the predicted increase across all causes, there was a statistically significant decrease in deaths attributed to heart disease.
The most revealing finding is that “[t]his trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years” and, most suspicious, “the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19.”
We should generally be skeptical when we see an overwhelming consensus among scientists, be it in the politically jaded world of climate change or, indeed, COVID-19. The unavoidable conclusion is that the statistics are fundamentally misleading and that for what appears to be political reasons, deaths from other diseases are being categorized as COVID-19 deaths.
Even if there is a lag in reporting of statistics from the CDC, that would not account for this data. There is no justification for the drop in heart attacks deaths, unless those deaths are being improperly assigned to COVID-19, and thus warping the data and making it less trustworthy.
All told, the data now (as well as from the very beginning of the epidemic in March) continues to tell us that some response to COVID-19 was certainly warranted. The data however still suggests that the actual response was inappropriate and a panicked over-reaction that not only did not address the problem properly, but very likely worsened it. In fact, there remains ample evidence — such as placement of infected patients in nursing homes in many states — that the response itself, not COVID-19, might have caused a large bulk of this year’s excess deaths.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
There is no justification for the drop in heart attacks deaths, unless those deaths are being improperly assigned to COVID-19, and thus warping the data and making it less trustworthy.
No, what the drop in heart disease deaths (not “heart attacks”, Myocardial infarction is just one of a dozen or so forms of heart disease) suggests is that people with heart disease that would have died from that condition in 2020 are far more likely to die from/with Covid should they be infected with it.
Not surprising really, Covid puts stress on the heart and can damage the heart, if the heart is damaged the additional burden could be too much for it.
From what I can tell on average people who die from Covid lose about 5 years of life, if they have severe chronic heart disease they probably only lose a few weeks or months.
Mr. Z: “His analysis also does not tell us how many of these excess deaths are from those measures, instead of COVID-19 itself.”
THANK YOU for this place of sane, critical thinking. I am waiting to see it reported on mainstream propaganda for lazy media consumers, that Gen. Yeager died of Covid, as it will mean that much more money for the hospital where he died.
When smart, free people finally give in to the anger that is seething within them, I hope and pray that they will demand that their elected politicians and all businesses that believed in masks social distancing and chastised those who had other beliefs, are charged with manslaughter.
Certainly zero studies are needed to inform people with common sense that physical health across this nation is on the decline because of closed gyms and social distancing, mental health is on the decline and domestic violence on the rise because of an increase in alcohol and drug abuse as a result of doldrums of lockdown. When the suicides start pouring in, especially among teens now deprived of any normality as their hormones continue to rage as in all adolescents ……
… it will be time to hold those who were accessories to homicide economic and societal, accountable. They will be to blame for far more deaths than the virus itself.
Andrew W: “From what I can tell …” based purely on what and who you believe.
If you hold a glass of water above the ground and let go of it, I don’t believe it will fall to the ground and spill any more than I believe it will remain hovering in the air intact.
I know it will fall to the ground. I discern the profound difference between what I believe and what I know.
With this Covid 19 hysteria, what people believe is being wrongly equated with what people know, and those beliefs are being forced on people at great cost as those behind the tyranny refuse to discern what they believe from what they know.
If there is great incentive $$$ for the flu to be classified as Covid, then will the flu disappear as a result of that this year?
Or will the flu in fact be diminished as a result of the population being hyper aware of washing their hands and generally staying away from others and it is in fact Covid that is infecting those that that find themselves sick?
Or is it the flu? They have very similar characteristics and results.
If we can not reliably discern the honesty and accuracy of our presidential election numbers, how can we reliably determine these numbers who are currently sick when there exists this incentive for a result rather than an accurate result.
Is it calculation? Or is it tabulation?
Cotour, seeing as how good fitness, one of the two major ways humans keep their immune systems strong, is frustrated nationally right now because of social distancing (group sports are prohibited) and closed gyms … it seems pretty predictable that ALL illnesses in the population will increase.
The Achilles Heel of requiring studies to prove what common sense has already established, leads to a lot of wasted effort and deceit.
I think there are two things underway at the moment.
Government is genuinely concerned about the over loading potential of the hospital system within their jurisdictions And I can understand that concern and I can agree with that concern. Because that in fact is the ONLY thing that any government has to be concerned about, that is in fact their job.
And each state will accomplish that job in various different ways. Some more authoritarian, and some less. Is what it is.
And then you have this second #2 associated “THING” that is currently underway in the world and is embraced by the Democrats who believe that they will next be in control of the White House, stay tuned on that.
And that second “THING” is the “Great Reset”, where the elite managers of countries and people have determined certain things that will no longer be tolerated by them. And in order to gain that great control over these various populations the necessary destruction of personal businesses would serve them well. If a good percentage of the populations in the world are made dependent on their governments for their survival they will become very agreeable. Or that is the theory anyway.
And Joe Biden and his “Build Back Better” bumper sticker slogan is right on board with this necessary manipulation and restructuring of the populations of the world.
Remember, “You will own nothing, and you will be happy. That is their theory anyway.
This is what all of this smells like to me anyway. One big smoking steaming pile of fertilizer.
Cotour … I guess I missed where it says in the Founding Documents that it was government’s job to prevent potential overloading of hospitals. Government is like fire, a dangerous servant and a fearful master, as one of the Founders said (I forget which). IMO, government has zero business telling citizens how to stay well. Its business is to 1) establish what are my rights and 2) defend them when they are infringed. Let hospitals take care of potential overloading.
Republicans and conservatives of today are a far cry from what they were 40 years ago. Any self-respecting Republican would have automatically fought state-run mandated health insurance strategically mislabeled as “care” and assumed that that’s why he was elected. But by 2012, Republicans and conservatives were ticked at me because I refused to vote for a Republican “severe conservative” Mitt Romney, Father of ObamaMandatedHealthInsurance, and made excuses for Romney on the pretense that “Well, it was Massachusettes, after all …”
” IMO, government has zero business telling citizens how to stay well. Its business is to 1) establish what are my rights and 2) defend them when they are infringed. Let hospitals take care of potential overloading.”
I will go in a different direction than your interpretation here:
1. Government, specifically a state government, does not establish your Rights, the Constitution enumerates and establishes your Rights. Government in the form of a sovereign state government in the United States Of America is necessary to provide a structure of law and order, a defense of its borders from foreign and domestic criminal and military operatives. And generally to provide the various infrastructures to do so, and to provide education for its people, pick up the garbage, keep the water and the electricity flowing. Etc. That’s government.
Government in all of its forms is always a potential threat to your Rights, and the Constitution is the counter balance to that threat. Government is necessary, but it is a necessary evil.
2. See #1, government does not ensure your Rights when they are infringed, that is the function of the Judicial system and the law duly passed by legislatures / law makers directed by the tenets of the Constitution.
3. A hospital, existing and licensed by a sovereign state, during a declared emergency specifically, like during a pandemic, is fundamental to the function of the state and its security. So those who have been politically empowered and have been elected to office retain a fiduciary responsibility that those various systems that ensure the states security and they can make rules and regulations that govern how those various entities that ensure the security of the state operate. The state has its own police force, controls the national guard and can in some instances curb your Rights etc. Your Rights are not absolute.
There are consequences to elections, so be careful who you elect to inhabit these offices and become empowered and have those fiduciary responsibilities and the powers of the state that can infringe on the Rights of the people that go along with them. It takes all kinds and we can all relate to the different styles of the various governors and how their personal philosophy and style can determine just how oppressive they might choose to make things within the borders of their state during these emergency events.
4. I do however agree with you 100 percent here: “IMO, government has zero business telling citizens how to stay well.”.
Government, and those who become empowered cares only about its responsibilities regarding its power and the states security and cares not one second in the big picture about you, me or anyone else’s health. The only overarching thing going on in these various states is the concern for the hospital system within the state from becoming overloaded or being crashed. At which time then everyone’s security is threatened. And so steps are seen needed to prevent that from occurring and Rights can be curbed / “Locked Downs” etc. And that IMO is the simplified version of what in fact is underway.
(And I am not defending or justifying anything that any state government is doing during this virus event. I am just fleshing out what their motivation is or may be and how they might express the real power that they hold and control. The power you give to the various people that seek it)
Government has real power, and with real power there are certain rules, and what are those rules? Power will be abused. And so now we again come around to the function of the Constitution.
What is the Constitution? The Constitution is the counter balance to the nature of man as it relates to governance and power.
Cotour: I do however agree with you 100 percent here: “IMO, government has zero business telling citizens how to stay well.”. Good. As I expected, we’re on the same page.
Language is one of the most powerful non-material forces in humanity — the only one I can think of more powerful is music, as it transcends language.
Most people grossly underestimate how powerful language is; repetitive marketing manipulates them handily by taking advantage of that fact. Government, thru mass media, is second only to the medical industry for aggressive repetitive marketing to the American public.
Language is also powerful in that lingering over the many definitions of words that are by the nature of language dynamic (concepts remain fixed while language used to describe them changes with every generation) can effectively obscure focus and vision on the pretense of clarifying it.
That is a big half a meatball you are leaving hanging out there.
Thanks to Mr. Zimmerman for posting the clarification re excess deaths. The second article is senseless and suggests that heart disease is being re-categorized as covid death. We still have 310k excess deaths, so how is this significant?
To you denialists out there – to what do you attribute the 310k excess deaths?
Jeff Fauva: This is a warning. You will cease calling those who disagree with you, or remain unconvinced of your position, as “denialists.” Period. This is name-calling, and I will not have it here.
Do it again and I will suspend you for a week.
Cotour … the judicial system, etc. etc, are part of government.
Here’s a hanging meatball: Government is genuinely concerned about the over loading potential of the hospital system within their jurisdictions And I can understand that concern and I can agree with that concern. Because that in fact is the ONLY thing that any government has to be concerned about, that is in fact their job.
I say their job — government is made up of many parts including judicial and legislative — is wrongly described as having responsibility for whether or not hospitals may suffer “potential” overloading.
We’re on the same page. Any argument can be extended to infinity as long as folks are willing to debate the meaning of, say the word “is.” Or “establish.”
“Administrative” government is separate from the judicial and the legislative. Associated but separate, lest government just be your owner, much like cattle or goats. Much like the CCP owns and manages their population.
The administrative / political form of government is always a potential threat to your Rights.
And the only thing that constrains it from coming and kicking your door down if they thought that necessary for any reason is the Constitution and by extension the judicial and legislative.
I am just suggesting you tighten up your words and definitions.
“To you ( skeptics ) out there – to what do you attribute the 310k excess deaths?”
I remember posting data from the CDC of deaths attributed to the “lockdown”. A lockdown instituted by tyrants in most states and many countries, panicking over the spread of an RNA virus no more harmful than the common cold.
The “excessive deaths” came from an unusual rise in suicide. (Among men, the suicide rate was higher than the death’s caused by the wo-flu, even with the inflated numbers) There was also, if you remember, an increase in pain medication/fentanyl accidental overdoses. (still occurring, even though you don’t hear about it) There’s also the deaths attributed to the lockdown of the hospitals preventing necessary life preserving procedures/surgeries postponed to long.
These are all unnecessary deaths directly contributed to the result of the suspension of constitutional liberties which has destroyed incomes, jobs, businesses, families, and has increased alcoholism to the point that the local liquor stores can’t keep up with the demand. This of course leads to poor health, underline conditions like obesity, diabetes, liver and heart disease, sleep apnea that all leads to the comorbidities that result in death when you catch a cold. Any cold or flu can cause death at this point especially among the “shut in” elderly.
I would also remind you that it is not necessary to catch a cold from someone else, many diseases and viruses are not treatable and you carry them with you your entire life. When your immune system is compromised by poor health, no exercise and experimental vaccinations, you have a higher probability of dying from a reoccurring infection you already have in your body.
It is said that everyone has cancer, it is only when your immune system does not recognize it, or can no longer remove it, that it overwhelms you to the point of death.
Mr. Z, may I suggest that when Jeff Fauva uses the word “denialists” to describe those who question Jeff’s beliefs that he confuses with knowledge, he is not name-calling, he is instead avoiding profanity and being civil while expressing disagreement. I am okay with his choice of the word “denier” as opposed to some obscenity. In fact, it is a very good thing when he does that because it provides great opportunity to identify the dynamics of the dispute that would disappear if he was silenced.
It illustrates what is like religious zealotry, we’ve seen it in the environmentalist movement and now we see it in people who believe in the infallibility and benign intent of medicine …
The approach is exactly the same, folks who think all non-believers will burn in hell.
Jeff Fauva serves a valuable purpose here for folks seeking truth. I’m afraid the Jeff Fauvas of the world perceive truth as something handed to them, because they think they deserve it, in what they read or hear, when reality dictates that truth must be sought by investing personal effort and re discerning the difference between beliefs and knowledge.
Cotour … I am suggesting you lighten up on micro-focusing on words and language, because doing so only obscures from the larger vision and focus. I speak from rather large experience. Forest, trees. :^)
Understanding that “micro focusing” on details is essential to understanding the context and conversation that is underway.
Max … reading your post, I want to stand up, fire my Ruger into the ceiling, and yell “That’s our kinda stuff!”
Very well said.
I predict a very grim Christmas as teen suicides pile up.
Cotour, remember the saying “Keep it simple.”
Ignore the shiny objects; the spangles and glitters of the micro-definitions of words that lead down many rabbit holes, are a mighty temptation.
It is the difference between writing that succeeds, and writing that fails.
Covid is no more a matter of belief than measles, small pox etc.. It is not my belief or view – it’s a fact – a thing that exists out there in the world that you disbelieve at your own peril.
Admitting that Covid is deadly, widespread and an ongoing American tragedy implicates Dear Leader Trump as not just fallible, but tragically incompetent. The willingness to dismiss Covid sits comfortably with the idea the Trump overwhelmingly won the election – in denial. Unquestioning belief in their Dear Leader is the true problem.
My last point on this matter:
The governor of Georgia is attempting to override the legislature and the Constitution.
Should he be able to do that? Where did he get that power from? (There is a difference between a governor and a legislature and the judiciary)
If the difference here is not understood then the governor can do as he pleases to the consternation of those who have empowered him. The governor has given himself powers that he does not Constitutionally have. What would that be called?
Now that is good writing, simple and to the point of the matter.
Jeff Fauva:
Like all good Democrat operatives you reference what it is that you either are doing or want / need to promote.
The term “Dear Leader”, refers to the Communist Chinese and specifically Chairman Mao. And it is in fact Joe Biden who is by documentation in bed with the Communist Chine$e to the tune of millions via his cash flow once removed front man son. Your assumptions as to other human beings gullibility is rich to say the least. Typical, a stereotype of a stereotype.
https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/HSGAC_Finance_Report_FINAL.pdf
“Hunter Biden’s connections and financial associations appear to have accelerated significantly after he associated himself with Ye Jianming, who had deep connections with the Communist regime and PLA. However, that didn’t seem to have any impact on Hunter Biden, who made millions from the relationship. Indeed, Hunter Biden and his family, to include James and Sara Biden, associated with other Chinese nationals such as Gongwen Dong. In one case, the three of them went on a $100,000 global spending spree after Gongwen Dong and Hunter Biden opened a joint account. In addition, Hunter Biden received millions of dollars over a period of years from Gongwen Dong’s companies. According to records acquired by the Committees, many of these transactions involved potential criminal financial activity”
Like most all and every Democrat I know your either half educated, which is the norm for the every day American Democrat today, or you are an operative pushing a narrative like you were on the corner selling heroine and whores. Its the only way for the Democrats, what else do you have?
Weak arguments for the feeble minded.
Hey, Jeff, you still are only pounding your chest claiming that your beliefs are facts. I think Trump stinks as much as any Democrat, and have thought so since he vied for the nomination in 2016.
You will have a skewed and wrong perspective of what’s really happening as long as you believe that those who choose to live with courage while frightened people are free to stay home and order out, are necessarily Trump supporters. That is false, I don’t believe it is false, I know it is false, personal knowledge.
Discerning belief from knowledge is critical if you really want to know the state of the world around you. Otherwise, you’re operating on falsehoods.
Robert wrote: “The author also makes it very clear that in doing this analysis he is not trying to justify the government’s dictatorial response to COVID-19. His analysis also does not tell us how many of these excess deaths are from those measures, instead of COVID-19 itself.”
William Briggs gives a weekly analysis of CDC data, and other Wuhan flu topics. In these updates, he includes a chart, labeled “US: Weekly All-Cause, Flu+Pneumonia & COVID Deaths,” comparing total U.S. deaths (solid black line) to those not attributed to Wuhan (the dashed black line). (Please note that the drop on the right side of the chart is due to delays in reporting to the CDC.)
https://wmbriggs.com/post/33790/
Briggs’s chart shows that there are an excess of deaths this year that do not seem to be an extension from previous years and summers. We would expect an increase due to population increase and the aging of the baby boomers, but this chart shows more than we would have expected. There is even a sharp spike in non-Wuhan attributed deaths that occurred at the time when hospitals were virtually closed to non-Wuhan related ailments.
It is very clear from this chart, based upon CDC data, that many tens of thousands of people have died due to the government’s abominable reaction to this flu. They treated it as though it were as deadly as Ebola.
Because of Briggs’s charts, over the past several months, I had a hard time accepting the reported conclusion of the Johns Hopkins report.
Jeff Fauva,
You asked: “To you [ahems] out there – to what do you attribute the 310k excess deaths?”
We have been very clear that these excess deaths are due to the government reaction to the Wuhan flu. We do not deny a flu exists, we claim that the reaction is overblown, unnecessary, and counterproductive. That you do not understand this by now says much about your comprehension abilities. I expect that we will have to explain this to you several more times, as you continually deny that we have these answers for you and as you continue to insist that we deny that the flu even exists.
I have complained to you before that there are many tens of thousands of deaths due to the reaction to Wuhan. There are far fewer than 310,000 deaths attributed to Wuhan, so where do you attribute those tens of thousands of unaccounted deaths?
Your belief is not that a flu exists, it is that the government and the experts are telling you the truth about it. It is not as deadly as you and others believe. It does not spread as fast as you have been told. Masks do not work. Lockdowns are counterproductive. Shutdowns cause far, far more harm than any good that they are claimed to provide. We are being oppressed by rulers who do not believe that any of these measures do any good, because these rulers freely violate their own rules and measures. You should know this by now. You should have the capacity to learn from what is going on about you, but you do not.
The person in denial is you. You deny that the reaction is astonishingly harmful, not protective, and you gleefully advocate for more of this abominable harm.
Edward: thanks for the lengthy and well considered reply. Two points/questions:
1) Eventually, all of these deaths will have an official cause of death attached to them. Where will you move the goalposts when we have 300k+ deaths officially attributed to covid?
2) Australia recorded 7 new cases in the entire country today. (all from travel into the country – none from local transmission) If lockdowns are counterproductive, masks don’t work etc., explain why Australia managed to extinguish the virus, while we have well over 221k new cases and 2200 deaths?
janyuary: Sorry to lump you in – I appreciate your independent thought. I still think that it is generally true that folks who downplay covid lethality are Trump supporters. My sense is that a large number of folks predisposed to support Trump have been long immersed in right-wing media that promotes conspiratorial views.
Jeff
Australia did not extinguish or eradicate the virus. They just didn’t have any reported cases.
Do you also believe that China, a nation of billions. also eradicated it? They can not even stop the smuggling of rare earth minerals out if their country by ship, let alone monitor and patrol almost 19.000 km of land border.
Or that Iran and North Korea also stopped it?
How about Africa?
If you believe all of that then of course I believe you would trust the word of the CDC. An organization that admits it doesn’t get any of its other number right the first time but their covid are true.
Jeff, thanks for the thought and compliment that I exhibit independent thinking … I will point out that I know many Trump fans (a bunch of pretty smart ones post here) who are also independent thinkers, although with whom I disagree, and I know a whole buncha Democrats who are also independent thinkers, just credulous ones.
“Credulous.” It’s a great word to know, Jeff.
Blaming “right-wing media that promotes conspiratorial views” is absolutely every bit as legitimate a concern as the left wing media which you apparently fail to recognize, that also promotes conspiratorial views, and today’s Democrats have long been immersed in them, so long that they fail to recognize a pot calling a kettle black.
Jeff let me clarify on the above statements — the many smart Trump fans who post at this site but with whom I disagree regarding Trump. They have faith in him; I just have more faith in my own track record of correctly calling spades spades even when my friends were just sure they were going to end up diamonds. Jeff, I believe Trump’s abilities and motivations are wildly exaggerated. That is what I believe. What I know is that a lot of folks who loathe Trump also loathe the lockdown lunacy, just as many who adore Trump do.
Especially for those who tend to be credulous, young and inexperienced mostly, it is critical to discern what one knows from what one believes.
Edward, Pzat … nice reads! Nicely done.
Meant to add Cotour to that list as well!! Ooops, sorry! Patriots all.
Cotour: Appreciate your thoughts. Just to put this part to rest:
“Like most all and every Democrat I know your either half educated, which is the norm for the every day American Democrat today, or you are an operative pushing a narrative like you were on the corner selling heroine and whores.”
Higher education levels correlate with voting Dem – advanced degree holders 62% to 37%
https://www.businessinsider.com/2016-2020-electoral-maps-exit-polls-compared-2020-11#as-voters-education-levels-increase-theyre-more-likely-to-vote-for-clinton-or-biden-instead-of-trump-5
Probably just a voice recog error, but don’t confuse heroine, (female hero) and heroin (drug).
janyuary: The reason I post here is to check my priors/beliefs against smart conservatives/libertarians who set me straight, so thanks for your responses.
I guess I reflexively push back against a couple ideas: 1) that the lockdowns are draconian and 2) that there is some kind of government conspiracy. Folks in New Zealand have been going to restaurants, movies and sporting events in stadiums since the summer because they aggressively attacked the spread of the virus early. The measures they used were much more restrictive than anything we’ve been asked to do, but these measures paid huge dividends, while we’ve been playing whack-a-mole. Now we have lockdown fatigue and a growing sense that these measures don’t work because we’ve never seriously implemented them.
Why can’t we have nice things like New Zealand?
You just keep on selling it.
Most all of my Democrat friends are ALL un or misinformed, and most all of them are ALL college educated. All good hard working people with good morals and ethics.
Do you know who they come to when they need something clarified or explained to them? A Deplorable.
You know ALL of the people you see reporting the news have all graduated from journalism school? And they are mostly to a man and a woman just human tools. I would bet that you are a result of a “Higher” education.
Half informed and fully indoctrinated, just one more, “Good Soldier”.
Hoping you stick around, most do not, for the obvious reasons.
“Folks in New Zealand have been going to restaurants, movies and sporting events in stadiums since the summer because they aggressively attacked the spread of the virus early.”
And as a result of this strategy the entire country is totally isolated from the rest of the world and can not ever open up to the rest of the world until, 1. They develop a functional herd immunity, which is not possible since they have chosen the isolation rout. Or, 2. There is developed a vaccine that is effective at which point the government will have to mandate that their entire country be vaccinated. And there in lies the rub.
And it is all based on empowered individuals in government, mostly Left leaning, getting to weigh and make these choices. Its all strategy. But what must also be considered, and this is not a conspiracy theory, this is a clearly stated agenda in government proposed by the World Economic Form and friends, “The Great Reset”. Remember, “You will own nothing, and you will be happy”.
Are you on board with that agenda, Jeff? Are you ready to go full Democrat Socialist? If so, you give up your private property Rights first.
And the irony here? It is only because of Trumps aggressive pushing and fast tracking of the pharmaceutical company’s in America and the world to develop these vaccine therapies at an accelerated pace that may be what saves them from the strategies and the decisions of those empowered among them.
Cotour, well said. Ours is a world where high IQ folks who nonetheless lack formal education or papered degrees, in many fields survive their dangerous jobs because of their smarts and produce important services and food for everyone in the doing. Little room for error dictates that the stupid, no matter how well educated, in the same line of work may well perish, even those with PHds behind their names.
Maybe that’s why people like you and me gravitate to this site: we instinctively recognize kindred spirits whose jobs are different than most. Most jobs, if a boss or employee goofs, it means a loss of money or reputation. In some jobs, though, if a boss or employee goofs, it can mean loss of life. Such courage and willingness to accept accountability, is worth celebrating.
Press on, Cotour.
Jeff Fauva,
You wittily asked: “Where will you move the goalposts when we have 300k+ deaths officially attributed to covid?”
You really don’t pay any attention, do you? I’m not moving goalposts, as I have explained this position since summer.
“If lockdowns are counterproductive, masks don’t work etc., explain why Australia managed to extinguish the virus, while we have well over 221k new cases and 2200 deaths?”
I believe that Australia counts Wuhan deaths only, and does not attribute those who died with or were suspected or assumed to have Wuhan as a Wuhan death. The CDC does. I cannot believe that you have been reading posts here on BtB for this long without learning this severe problem this the U.S. Wuhan death count.
“Higher education levels correlate with voting Dem – advanced degree holders 62% to 37%”
Interesting that you equate indoctrination with intelligence rather than a lack of independent thinking. It is too bad that critical thinking is no longer taught in school, because if it were then you and others like you would realize that the Democratic Party is very bad for America, freedom, and independent thinkers.
“I guess I reflexively push back against a couple ideas: 1) that the lockdowns are draconian and 2) that there is some kind of government conspiracy.”
Interestingly, both are true by definition. The lockdown actually are harsh and severe, excessively so. We have battled pandemics before without resorting to such drastic measures. Governors have discussed amongst themselves the use of lockdowns, and they have taken action; the very definition of conspiracy. Again, no critical thinking on your part, otherwise you would have known better, just some sort of parroting of the crowd you run around in. They are not thinkers, either.
janyuary wrote:”In some jobs, though, if a boss or employee goofs, it can mean loss of life.”
One of those jobs is politician. Several governors thought that it would be a good idea to force nursing homes to take in Wuhan-ailing patients. College educated but terribly stupid. And Democrat. Leadership, which means that the supposedly smarter college educated Democrats voted for them. Even though they are directly responsible for tens of thousands of Wuhan-caused deaths, Democrats still worship them. College educated, but not so smart after all.
Edward: Thanks for the considered reply. I have only been reading here for a month, so I’m not clear on you covid explanations. What exactly is the real cause of death among the 200k or so currently officially attributed to covid?
“I believe that Australia counts Wuhan deaths only, and does not attribute those who died with or were suspected or assumed to have Wuhan as a Wuhan death. The CDC does. I cannot believe that you have been reading posts here on BtB for this long without learning this severe problem this the U.S. Wuhan death count.”
– Put aside the covid accounting. Aussies are in restaurants, movie houses, and stadiums while we are suffering 3k deaths a day. My point is that serious dedication to lockdown measures can work and the point stands.
“Interesting that you equate indoctrination with intelligence rather than a lack of independent thinking. It is too bad that critical thinking is no longer taught in school, because if it were then you and others like you would realize that the Democratic Party is very bad for America, freedom, and independent thinkers.”
– So people without college degrees are immune to indoctrination? Critical thinking is only taught outside of schools? This is a ‘superior knowledge’ argument that boils-down to “the real uneducated people are the educated people”, which I would argue is a key component of propaganda.
Your starting point was classifying people and giving a higher value to those who are allegedly or more “educated”, not mine.
And my point was that I know many people who have lots of degrees and your point, other than a specialization in a particular field, has never been apparent to me.
Especially in todays world where we can plainly demonstrate that most in the higher education world are indoctrinators with a clear Left leaning at the minimum bent rather than educators.
Cotour: Appreciate the reply. I was simply countering another post that claimed Dems are less educated – I did not “classify or assign value”.
Jeff Fauva,
You wrote: “So people without college degrees are immune to indoctrination?”
I don’t know what I said to give you that idea. You don’t pay attention, then you make up your own conclusions. Excellent reasoning and argument technique. [That was sarcasm.] “E” for effort, but “F” for failing to act educated. People without a college education have managed to avoid that particular and popular indoctrination mill, but they are still subject to biases in news reporting (e.g. Wuhan is so deadly and contagious that you all have to stay home while we get to come in to the studio to do our reporting), in the entertainment industry, as well as in school from K through high school. You also make the assumption that all smart people go to college and that only smart people go to college. I have met some astonishingly stupid college students and college graduates, and I know several smart people who skipped college and went straight into doing their own things.
I had asked you: “There are far fewer than 310,000 deaths attributed to Wuhan, so where do you attribute those tens of thousands of unaccounted deaths?” Instead of an answer, all I get is another question from you: “What exactly is the real cause of death among the 200k or so currently officially attributed to covid?”
See? You answered your own question in your very next sentence. You really don’t pay attention.
I told you that I would have to explain it more times. So once again: some of the reported deaths are due to Wuhan flu. The CDC accepts reports of those who died with Wuhan virus (not from) as part of that category, and even accepts reports of suspected or assumed Wuhan deaths as being due to Wuhan virus — no evidence necessary. Medical facilities and local governments are eager to report these extraneous deaths, because the federal government passes out generous amounts of cash for any Wuhan-attributed death. This is why we get reports of auto accidents and shootings being attributed to Wuhan flu. Reporting it that way is accepted, until more enlightened people catch it, and is either intentionally or unintentionally encouraged by the federal government. Since it has gone on for nine months or more, I think it is intentional.
As the number of Wuhan tests increases, the number of those “with” Wuhan virus increases, so when anything happens to those who are tested positive, they become another victim attributed to Wuhan. What we know for sure is that there are fewer people dying of Wuhan flu than the 3 thousand being reported. The corruption of the data prevents us from knowing how many there really are, how bad the flu really is, and what the level of response is appropriate. What we do know, is that the current response is resulting in tens of thousands more deaths than those saved. Mayor de Blasio said that we are doing all this to save just one life, but all the collateral deaths are clearly not worth the one life that we are still waiting to be saved. Once that life is finally saved, then we can get back to normal living, to our friends and families, to our sources of income in order to cover our living expenses, to our doctors, and our schools. We will be free to travel outside our houses without special permission from the government. How tyrannical is that?
“Put aside the covid accounting. Aussies are in restaurants, movie houses, and stadiums while we are suffering 3k deaths a day.”
And this does not clue you in that Wuhan is not as bad as advertised?
Our restaurants could and should be open. Our movie houses could and should be open. Our stadiums could and should be open. Instead, we are ruled by people who do not obey their own rules, because they know that they are nonsensical and useless. They know that masks are worse than useless (they don’t use them when they think no one is watching) and hand washing is the best way to prevent the spread of disease, but they mandate face diapers (masks) and barely mention hand washing.
The rules are for people who don’t want the responsibility of making their own decisions, that many people seek a way to not have to deal with any of these things. These people are children and cowards, unable to cope with making rent, getting a job, paying for healthcare, or repaying college loans (for many of them, college should be free). What you have is a state of terrified children, going along with unreasonable, counterproductive rules, just because the people that they depend upon for parental guidance tell them to. That is why Australia is so open and does not have as much of a problem. They are not imposing such counterproductive measures on their population.
Our rulers want us to be dependent, as though they are our ersatz parents, and they are turning us into wards of the state. Many teenagers want to be thought of as adults, but even when they are adults they still are afraid of the responsibilities. It is hard work, requires paying attention — especially to what is important and what is urgent — and requires trading fun activities or purchases for necessary ones.
People are losing hope and losing the will to live. What is there worth living for if we can’t meet girls, date them, then marry them and start a family? Most people want their friends and families at their weddings, which is why they spend so much money and planning time on weddings. These days, such crowds are outlawed in most of the U.S.
These lockdowns take away our lives.
Obamacare was supposed to prevent people from losing everything just because of a disease, but we are many people are losing it all even when they have no disease. What a complete failure Obamacare turned out to be.
Edward: Thanks for the reply.
“What we know for sure is that there are fewer people dying of Wuhan flu than the 3 thousand being reported. The corruption of the data prevents us from knowing how many there really are, how bad the flu really is, and what the level of response is appropriate.”
And there it is. Always boils down to some conspiracy that allows one any mental contortion to explain away facts as plain as day. Arguing against a conspiracy is pointless. You win – congrats.
Australia abandons the vaccine due to HIV false positives?
https://www.dw.com/en/australia-ends-local-covid-vaccine-trials-due-to-hiv-false-positives/a-55900847
HIV delivery system?
Well this is not good, I will not be taking any of them
Jeff Fauva,
You wrote: “Always boils down to some conspiracy that allows one any mental contortion to explain away facts as plain as day. Arguing against a conspiracy is pointless. You win – congrats.”
Except that it is not a conspiracy. It is a failed method for reacting to this virus.
You may see conspiracies everywhere, but a conspiracy is a very specific thing. For Wuhan, the government is trying to compensate hospitals and medical facilities for their hard work, but they have gone about it in a very wrong way.
Unless you think that there are people at the CDC who have done this intentionally. I do not. I think that they are merely incompetent. Incompetence requires no conspiracy.
Edward:
The charge you make is that many deaths attributed to covid are actually car accidents, knife wounds, 500 ton weights, ACME dynamite etc.. and the numbers reported are way off because hospitals/morgues are getting paid-off to report them as covid deaths. That is a conspiracy theory.
Jeff Fauva,
You wrote: “The charge you make is that many deaths attributed to covid are actually car accidents, knife wounds, 500 ton weights, ACME dynamite etc.. and the numbers reported are way off because hospitals/morgues are getting paid-off to report them as covid deaths. That is a conspiracy theory.”
First: that is not what I said. I said that deaths of those with Wuhan were allowed to be counted in the total and that your list was explicitly excluded because they get caught. The accepted list includes especially illnesses of those who tested positive, were suspected of having Wuhan but were not tested, or that were merely assumed to have Wuhan but were not tested.
You really need to stop embarrassing yourself and pay attention to what people write. In other threads you have said that paying attention is too time consuming, but it only requires a little extra brain power. The advantage is that you do not look foolish or stupid to those around you, or on the inter-web thingy.
Second: you really do not have any idea what a conspiracy theory is. Again, you appear fooling or stupid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory
What I explained is mere incompetence on the part of the CDC, not a conspiracy that they communicated with anyone. You may believe the CDC to be sinister, but it is merely incompetent. You may need a conspiracy theory in order to explain why no one believe you, but the rest of us research facts, figures, and actual science. You are far more transparent than you think you are.
Cotour–
“Australia on Friday abandoned the development of a domestically developed COVID-19 vaccine after several participants in early-stage trials returned false-positive HIV test results.”
“The university’s researchers included small amounts of HIV protein as a “molecular clamp” as part of the vaccine’s design.”
Edward:
Let’s start fresh. 1) There are 300k excess deaths. 2) There are 300k deaths reported from covid. Your assertion is that 2) is incorrect, and that this number is actually much lower. Fair? If so:
– Why are the reported numbers wrong?
– How far off are they?
– For the delta between the reported number and your number, what is the true cause?
Just a style note – not an accusation of anyone in particular. If a reply goes on a riff using buzzwords and rants about Obammy and Killary yadda yadda, the more the post seems like a diatribe and I tune-out right away. Keep it succinct and to the point and I’m happy to read. Thanks!
Simple and to the point:
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/hospitals-have-incentive-to-inflate-covid-deaths-cdc-chief-admits
“The federal CARES Act, the $2-trillion emergency relief package Congress passed in March, increases per-patient Medicaid reimbursements to hospitals by 20% for patients listed with a “principal or secondary diagnosis of COVID-19.”
Jeff Fauva,
You wrote: “– Why are the reported numbers wrong?”
In the way that I have already stated but that your uncomprehending eyes reject. You are conflating correlation and causation, a common error amongst those who do not understand the scientific method and how to use it properly.
You already said it yourself:
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/data-hospitals-underwhelmed-by-2nd-covid-wave-as-they-were-with-1st/#comment-1098226
“– 300k *excess* deaths means that these are actually folks who would have lived-out the year.”
In context, this means that these excess deaths are not the ones who are dying of Wuhan, because 92% of those are people who are already suffering from multiple comorbidities that are life threatening enough to require being in nursing homes or require other medical attention. The people most susceptible to Wuhan flu are those who are already at death’s door. Therefore, the excess deaths must come from a different population, one that is healthier, such as adults who are now too afraid to go to the doctor for minor ailments, such as those comorbitities, but once the ailment is big enough to drive them to the doctor, it is too late. Such as people whose elective surgeries were cancelled, because life saving procedures for cancer and heart disease are scheduled in advance, making them “elective” in the eyes of the government smackdown against disobeyers. such as teenagers who wonder why life is worth living under lockdowns,
— What is there worth living for if we can’t meet girls, date them, marry them, and start a family? These lockdowns take away our lives.
“– How far off are they?”
As I already stated, the data is so corrupted that we do not know. Once again, you show your inability to do any reading so that you can understand the actual situation rather than the fantasy you have in your head.
“– For the delta between the reported number and your number, what is the true cause?”
I keep repeating myself, but you are not smart enough to read or else you are not smart enough to comprehend. I can only do so much spoon feeding. I feel so sorry for your teachers. At once, they earned their pay by having to put up with you and failed to earn their pay by failing to educate you. Frankly, I want my tax money back.
“If a reply goes on a riff using buzzwords and rants about Obammy and Killary yadda yadda, …”
Considering that you are the only one to use those buzzwords, I would suggest that you not be flamboyantly hypocritical, because that demonstrates some of the poorer parts of your personality.
“Keep it succinct and to the point and I’m happy to read.”
Well, isn’t that special. Here you are, complaining that you don’t understand my points, but you insist that you don’t read my explanations or my links when you ask for clarifications. Why do you ask when you know that you won’t read them? Whenever someone has kept it succinct and to the point, you don’t understand their point.
For the record, if I want to go off on a riff or a rant or if I want to use buzzwords, then that is what I am going to do. If you don’t like it, that is on you.
If you didn’t want long replie, then why did you ask so many questions?
Are you a troll, Jeff? If you are then I have been having a lot of fun at your expense. If not then it speaks volumes to your lack of intellectual power.
Jeff Fauva,
For succinctness’s sake, let’s start fresh: I am right, you are wrong.
Is that succinct enough for you? It certainly must meet your “to the point” requirement.
But it does not answer any of your questions, so are you really “happy to read?“
Edward: Thanks for the lengthy replies/diatribes
“As I already stated, the data is so corrupted that we do not know. Once again, you show your inability to do any reading so that you can understand the actual situation rather than the fantasy you have in your head”
The heart of your argument continues to be a conspiracy theory. You offer pwns rather than eveidence. This is pointless.
Jeff Fauva,
You argue from ignorance as to what a conspiracy theory is. You project your own thought of conspiracies onto me.
My argument is about data handling. Having worked in science labs and as a test engineer, I know this subject. Data corruption does not take a conspiracy, it can be as simple as human error. What is important is the ability to recognize corrupted data, no matter the cause, so that it does not get (mis)used in life-critical situations, such as pandemics. .
There are many learned people on this site. It would do you well to learn something from them. That way you do not look foolish trying to palm error or incompetence as conspiracy.