Actual data: COVID-19 is only a threat to the old AND sick


Link here. The author does a nice job of summarizing the data we now have detailing the mortality demographics of the Wuhan virus. What that data tells us is that almost no one in the general population is threatened by this disease, at all, and thus all the extreme society-wide measures so far taken (lock downs, masks) are completely absurd.

First, the average age of those who have died is 78 years old, which also happens to be the normal average life expectancy of Americans. That means the virus has done nothing to change that overall life expectancy.

Second, of those who did die from the Wuhan virus, 75% already had underlying medical conditions. Like the flu and pneumonia, if you were old and sick, the virus acted to put the final nail in the coffin. For everyone else, it was not an issue at all.

Third, of those aged and elderly who died, 42% lived in nursing homes, many of whom were victims of bad state policies that exposed them unnecessarily to infected individuals while being confined to these facilities.

Let’s recap what the available data have shown us so far. Those dying of COVID-19 are overwhelmingly very old and most often very unhealthy, and nearly half of them lived in nursing homes, where less than one-half of one percent of our country’s population lives. Though the media seem uninterested in reporting any of that, we know well, and as near to precision as we might expect in a viral pandemic, whom COVID-19 actually kills.

Nor is this all. Of those in the healthy younger population, the data now tells us that COVID-19 is one third less deadly than the flu or pneumonia. When compared to these other diseases, fewer young people get the Wuhan virus, or even show symptoms if they do, and of those who do show symptoms one third fewer people die from the disease.

In other words, society has no reason to be afraid of this virus. We should have continued life as normal, with the exception of taking some extra care to protect the elderly sick.

Instead, we are becoming a society of fear and ignorance, covering our faces for no reason, isolating ourselves from our fellow man, and fearful to even go outside and enjoy life, out of fear not only of the Wuhan flu but in terror that others will ostracize us to being normal and unafraid.

It is time for this idiocy to stop. Sadly, I do not expect it to. We have fallen in love with this fear, and want to embrace it instead.

16 comments

  • Marcus

    Even if COVID-19 only killed people in their 90’s, it would still decrease the average life expectancy because that’s how averages work. But it is up to you whether you care that someone dies of a disease at 90 who might have lived to 95 otherwise. Or have you seen data showing that almost everyone who has died was just about to pass anyway anyway. Just the existence of one or more underlying conditions doesn’t mean much if you include conditions like obesity that around 42% of the adult population has anyway (according to the CDC). I’m curious how you define the “general population” and how many regular people that definition might leave out.

  • Cotour

    Sweden, NYC, and New Zealand, who is in better shape related to herd immunity?

    https://youtu.be/v-YkFyH701Q 6:30

    (Andrew W, a worthwhile view)

  • Andrew_W

    Cotour, which strategy (Sweden vs NZ) makes more sense will largely depend on whether an effective vaccine is developed and distributed in the next few months. If there’s never a vaccine NZ would have made the wrong bet, if a vaccine is available in the new year or before, 6,000 Swedes would have died earlier than they would otherwise have done.
    Both countries continue to suffer economic damage, possibly NZ less so, as our exports are largely unaffected and few businesses are now affected.

    Heller claims herd immunity in NY and Sweden, well, that might be so if things have returned to normal in NY and Sweden, if measures are still in place that reduce transmission of the virus, such as social distancing, bars having restrictions on the spacing of patrons, sports stadiums remaining unused, sports events suspended. Are things back to normal in NY? If not I’d suggest the evidence for herd immunity having been reached isn’t there. I’ve been looking for any recent studies on antibody rates in NY but haven’t found any, unless there is evidence that at least 50% of NYers now have antibodies I’m skeptical of claims that immunity claims has been attained.

    Inside the boarders things are back to normal here, no masks, social distancing gone, sports events running with stadiums full. Heller claims the tourism industry devastated, It’s certainly fallen on hard times, but New Zealanders are normally frequent international travelers, and they’re now traveling within the country more than previously, so the loss of international travelers has in large part been offset by the increase in locals.

    I doubt NZers are now living in fear to a greater degree than NYers or Swedes at the moment, quite the opposite.

  • Rose

    Andrew, have any groups suggested plans which allow international visitors to NZ who arrive via secure quarantine facilities?

    That wouldn’t work well for short-term business or holiday travelers, but could work for those intending longer visits, such as for visiting relatives. It could also do for foreign students or those entering on working holiday visas.

  • Rose

    This AP story debunks the claim that US Secretary of Education DeVos said 0.02% of children would die from COVID-19 if schools are reopened.
    * https://apnews.com/afs:Content:9100492807

    But it does go on to say, “According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the COVID-19 mortality rate for children under four is 0.2 percent and 0.1 for people from five to 17.” That seems crazy high! Is the CDC really claiming that.

    I suppose the CFR to IFR ratio might be much higher in children, and that children may be much more resistant to infection, both shifting the CFR higher than one would expect from the number of deaths, but I though the COVID-19 morality rate for children was vanishingly small.

  • Andrew _W

    We’re working on that, film crews for the tv version of LOTR are coming in, as are America’s Cup teams, they’re looking at nz hosting international competitions like the scheduled southern hemisphere international rugby competition between nz, Aust, AS and Argentina. There’s also talk about musicians and international boxing/fight events. There have been 30,000 NZers return home in recent weeks, and it’s certain that others in need of travel for business will be able to get in.
    Most kiwis haven’t been impressed at the organization that’s gone into the quarantine system. Too much govt incompetence on display.

  • Andrew _W

    AS should have been SA – South Africa – auto correct.

  • mkent

    A few points.

    1) The article makes the common mistake of comparing *counted* COVID-19 deaths and *estimated* flu deaths. This is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Since the CDC has not provided an estimated COVID-19 death toll yet, the direct comparison should be made between counted COVID-19 deaths (114,741 at the time of his writing) and counted flu deaths (15,620 in the 2017-2018 flu season). The COVID-19 death toll is thus far seven times as high as the worst seasonal flu season in American history.

    2) He also seems to make the common mistake of equating “underlying medical conditions” with “near death’s door.” Medical researchers have a definition of “underlying medical conditions” so broad that one-third to two-thirds of Americans fall into that category. For example, in the underlying study that this article is written against…

    * Underlying medical conditions include cardiovascular disease (congenital heart disease, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, hypertension, cerebrovascular accident/stroke, valvular heart disease, conduction disorders or dysrhythmias, other cardiovascular disease); diabetes mellitus; chronic lung disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/emphysema, asthma, tuberculosis, other chronic lung diseases); immunosuppression (cancer, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, identified as being immunosuppressed); chronic kidney disease (chronic kidney disease, end-stage renal disease, other kidney diseases); neurologic conditions (dementia, seizure disorder, other neurologic conditions); chronic liver disease (cirrhosis, alcoholic hepatitis, chronic liver disease, end-stage liver disease, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, other chronic liver diseases); obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2).

    That’s a lot of conditions! How common are they? 22% of Americans have hypertension, 12% are obese by the definition used in the underlying study, and 9% have diabetes. I didn’t look up all of the rest. There’s some overlap, but I think you’ll find that if you run all of the numbers, nearly half if not more than half of all Americans will fall into that “underlying medical condition” category.

    3) The author mentions using the South Korean fatality data to downplay the virus’s lethality. Have you ever run the numbers using that data? I have. If you break down the South Korean fatality rates by age and apply those age-based rates to the American population, factoring in the infection percentage needed to achieve herd immunity, you’ll find that the death toll among Americans will be in the millions by the time herd immunity is reached.

    We should pray every day that America never sees the type of fatality rate seen in South Korea. Either that or we beat this disease without ever getting to herd immunity.

  • James Street

    Washington state has scheduled their coronavirus pandemic to end on November 5, 2020, two days after the elections:

    “Emergency rule effective July 8, 2020 expires November 5, 2020, for more information see https://lni.wa.gov/rulemaking-activity/
    WAC 296-800-14035 2019 Novel coronavirus prohibited business activities and compliance with conditions for operations.
    (1) Where a business activity is prohibited by an emergency proclamation an employer shall not allow employees to perform work.
    (2) Employers must comply with all conditions for operation required by emergency proclamation issued under RCW 43.06.220, including Safe Start phased reopening requirements for all business and any industry specific requirements.
    (3) An “emergency proclamation” means a proclamation that is in effect, including proclamation amendments and conditions, and issued under RCW 43.06.220 and is in effect at the time the emergency rule was adopted.”

    From “Chapter 296-800 WAC Safety Standards for Core Rules (Form Number F414-059-000)”
    https://lni.wa.gov/safety-health/safety-rules/chapter-pdfs/WAC296-800.pdf

  • Andrew_W

    From a couple of doctors with several masks and blood oxygen meters. [9:18]
    Do MASKS affect your OXYGEN levels? // DOCTOR Covid-19 Vlog #24
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZEYFgmXrLc

    Summary: Masks made no difference.

  • LocalFluff

    I can reassure you that there is no fear in Sweden because of this common cold virus. Instead there is rejoicement. For once the rest of the world has gone more crazy than our politicians!

    People of about average life span age die from a common cold virus. Surprise surprise. No one promised you eternal life. What else would they (we, soon) die of?
    “- Let’s test those who die for a common cold virus! Guess what we will find.”

    The general mortality rate will speak its statistical language about this in hindsight. The poverty that the lockdown has caused will kill 100 times more than this virus.

  • Max

    Coast to coast tonight reported a new outbreak in Russia, more deadly and affecting children. Searched for information, this is all I could find.
    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-coronavirus-kazakhstan-denies-unknown-pneumonia.html
    “As of July 13, there were 59,899 confirmed coronavirus cases and 375 deaths in the country. But the situation is evolving quickly and could be a lot worse than this.

    On July 8, the Chinese embassy in Kazakhstan warned Chinese citizens that the country had an “unknown pneumonia” outbreak more deadly than COVID-19. The following day, the Kazakhstani health ministry acknowledged the presence of viral pneumonias of “unspecified” cause, but denied that the outbreak was new or unknown. The newly appointed health minister, Alexey Tsoy, declared that the claim published by Chinese media “does not correspond to reality”.

    They’re already calling it Covid 20
    But then we knew they must maintain the fear until the new Bolsheviks have full control.
    And yes, no conspiracy theory can be complete without a bio weapons lab nearby.

  • pzatchok

    Its sort of sad to say but T guess we have to remind todays children.

    Only the strong survive.
    We have artificially tilted the numbers in favor of the living do to our increased medical effectiveness.
    But in the end nature WILL catch up to us.

  • Cotour

    This from the real world:

    NYC: Just spoke with an emergency room doctor in a major NYC hospital, I asked her “So what’s going on in the hospital?”.

    Dr.:”You mean with Covid?”

    “Yes”.

    Dr. :”Nothing going on, I barley see anyone with Covid now” “I was so busy yesterday with people coming back to the emergency room all I had time for was to drink a coke for lunch”.

    Dr. : But I hear its getting worse in places like Florida, but its not as bad as it was here”.

    “Do you mean in numbers or severity?”

    “Severity, I have a friend who went to FLA and she says its much less severe than it was here when it started”.

    Emergency room Dr., Covid essentially now zero in NYC and the severity of the viruses effects are now diminishing.

    And that’s what is going on in the real world/ NYC.

  • Edward

    LocalFluffwrote: “The poverty that the lockdown has caused will kill 100 times more than this virus.

    Unfortunately, we will never be able to assess this collateral damage, just as we cannot assess how many people are now dying or will die because of delayed diagnoses, reduced exercise regimens, increased suicides and alcoholism, and other health, sociological, political, or financial reasons. The worldwide damage due to the reaction to this minor flu is horrific.

    We cannot believe the numbers that we are getting, in the rest of the world, because there are financial incentives to diagnose Wuhan flu, and coroners are allowed to suspect or assume that someone died of or with the Wuhan virus. The numbers are obviously inflated and not in the least bit scientific. Medical definitions have changed; someone who is infected is now counted as a case, but it used to be that a case was someone who needed medical care, not someone who was asymptomatic or already over the flu (asymptomatic, of course).

    Sweden clearly did it right. While the rest of the world is suffering under the bad reaction to this faux panicdemic, Sweden has no worries that there will be a “second wave.”

  • Cotour: I should post the last month daily numbers from New York again. They are averaging about 5 to 10 deaths per day, hardly something to worry about for general society.

    I will. I have post planned to talk about New York at greater length, but it needs two weeks to pass to prove the point.

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