At a conference in Washington DC yesterday both Russia and Japan announced the Moon as their next primary space exploration goal.
The new colonial movement: At a conference in Washington DC yesterday both Russia and Japan announced the Moon as their next primary space exploration goal.
If the U.S. gets a competitive private aerospace industry going — which seems increasingly likely — I’m willing to bet those companies will get to the Moon before either of these governments.
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The new colonial movement: At a conference in Washington DC yesterday both Russia and Japan announced the Moon as their next primary space exploration goal.
If the U.S. gets a competitive private aerospace industry going — which seems increasingly likely — I’m willing to bet those companies will get to the Moon before either of these governments.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
“If the U.S. gets a competitive private aerospace industry going — which seems increasingly likely — I’m willing to bet those companies will get to the Moon before either of these governments”.
SpaceX’s manifest shows that there is a sizeable market to support the commercial outfits. But isn’t the high upfront costs for a commercial lunar operation too high? Wouldn’t government funding beat commercial ventures in this case?
It may not be an either/or situation, though – I’m thinking it’s likely NASA would turn to SpaceX (or one of the other commercial ventures) & fund them for a Moon program (assuming Congress & the president were willing). After all, it was always private co’s like McDonnell/Douglas, Rockwell, Gen. Dynamics etc. that actually built launchers & spacecraft under contract from NASA and/or the U.S. gov’t. Some of the frequent contributors here probably have more inside dope on the situation than I do – I’m only an enthusiast, never worked in the industry myself, so I welcome any enlightenments or corrections if I’m misinformed…
I’m thinking that space exploration/exploitation in the 2010’s might be analogous to aviation in the 1930’s: government provides the initial incentives (mail contracts) for development of hardware, operating procedures, and infrastructure, after which companies acquire more business (passengers/cargo) and develop new routes and markets on their own.
Bingo for you, Blair! The development of the American aviation industry in the 1920s and 1930s is exactly the approach we should use now. And I’ve written and said this more times than I care to count. Free enterprise is what built the country, not government programs. When the government realizes this and acts to aid private enterprise instead of squelching it, the country prospers.
Having the government build the rockets and spaceships — as we have done for the past forty years — copies the Soviet model, which sadly has been proven to be failure, repeatedly. Remember, the shuttle didn’t reduce the cost to orbit as promised, and NASA never was able to get a shuttle replacement built.
Hopefully, paying SpaceX and others for transit will allow NASA to focus more of its budget on payloads and maybe even allow them to develop a true space ship for BEO.
People have hit on this a already but the real advantage to a COTS CCDEV approach is that NASA doesn’t control the launch companies, allowing them to sell their services to whoever has the money. Even if people or companies could afford to purchase launch services from NASA, they would never sell them.
Going forward it is important at every stage to remove NASA from control or match them with private capabilities. It will be great if NASA sets up a lunar base but worthless to the commercial community if they can’t access it for their own purposes. I just don’t see NASA building a facility larger than what they need or opening it up for others to use but maybe that is also a slim possibility.