Tentative crash date for Long March 5B core stage: July 31st
Click for full image.
Engineers from the Aerospace Corporation have now made the first preliminary calculations and determined that the core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket that launched July 24th will crash to Earth uncontrolled on July 31, 2022, give or take one day.
The map to the right, reduced to post here, shows all the orbits during that 48 hour period. Note that, except for most of Europe, almost all the high population regions of the globe are in the crash zone.
This prediction is very tentative, and will change as the core stage’s orbit evolves in the next few weeks. It also could change entirely if China has updated the rocket’s engines so they can be restarted at least once to de-orbit the stage properly, as it has hinted it could do. If however the orbit begins to decay without any action by China, then we will know those hints were lies, and that China is once again violating the Outer Space Treaty by acting with willful negligence to threaten harm to others with one of its launches.
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As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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Click for full image.
Engineers from the Aerospace Corporation have now made the first preliminary calculations and determined that the core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket that launched July 24th will crash to Earth uncontrolled on July 31, 2022, give or take one day.
The map to the right, reduced to post here, shows all the orbits during that 48 hour period. Note that, except for most of Europe, almost all the high population regions of the globe are in the crash zone.
This prediction is very tentative, and will change as the core stage’s orbit evolves in the next few weeks. It also could change entirely if China has updated the rocket’s engines so they can be restarted at least once to de-orbit the stage properly, as it has hinted it could do. If however the orbit begins to decay without any action by China, then we will know those hints were lies, and that China is once again violating the Outer Space Treaty by acting with willful negligence to threaten harm to others with one of its launches.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
That Joe Biden, the leader of the free world, is on the payroll of the CCP gives them unlimited license to all kinds of evil.
“10% for the big guy”
I wonder if the attitude of China is influenced by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bombing_of_the_Chinese_embassy_in_Belgrade