Update on the status of Vulcan, Ariane-6, and New Glenn

Link here. This excellent article is focused on whether these three new rockets, none of which has yet completed its first test flight, will be able to meet their launch contract obligations with Amazon, which needs to launch at least 1,600 satellites of its Kuiper broadband constellation by July 2026 to meet its FCC license requirements. Those requirements also obligate Amazon to have the full constellation of about 3,200 satellites in orbit by July 2029.

The launch contracts to these three untried rockets was the largest such contract ever issued, involving 83 launches and billions of dollars.

To sum up where things stand in terms of the first test launch of each rocket:
» Read more

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New Shepard remains grounded, a year after launch failure

More than five months after completing its mishap investigation of the New Shepard launch failure one year ago, Blue Origin’s suborbital spacecraft remains grounded, with no clear indication when it will fly again.

In March, Blue Origin announced the results of its anomaly investigation: The nozzle on the first stage’s single BE-3PM engine suffered a “thermo-structural failure,” which caused a thrust misalignment and brought the mission to a premature end.

In its March 24 announcement, Blue Origin said that it had begun implementing some corrective actions, “including design changes to the combustion chamber and operating parameters, which have reduced engine nozzle bulk and hot-streak temperatures.” The company also stressed that it expected to return to flight “soon,” with a re-launch of those same 36 research payloads.

Almost six months later, that “soon” has translated into “someday.” It seems the slow pace of everything Blue Origin does has now taken over its one successful operational product. It has released no information about a new flight schedule, or even the present status of the spacecraft.

The result? Even though Blue Origin was flying commercial suborbital flights regularly about two years earlier that Virgin Galactic, the latter company has now completed more flights. This slow pace is not how a commercial company driven to earn profits and compete successfully operates. In the end it drives away customers, while ceding market share to competitors.

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Astronomers discover two new polar-ring galaxies

Polar ring galaxy
Click for original image.

Using a combination of optical and radio telescopes as well as computer modeling, astronomers think they have identifed polar rings of gas orbiting two different galaxies, adding these to the relatively small population of known polar-ring galaxies.

Polar ring galaxies are unique in that they have an outer ring of gas and stars circling the galaxy at right angles to its plane. A composite image of one of these new galaxies is to the right, cropped, reduced and sharpened to post here. From the press release:

Jayanne English, a member of the WALLABY research team and also an expert in astronomy image-making at the University of Manitoba, developed the first images of these gaseous polar ring galaxies using a combination of optical and radio data from the different telescopes. First, optical and infrared data from the Subaru telescope in Hawaii provided the image for the spiral disk of the galaxy. Then, the gaseous ring was added based on data obtained from the WALLABY survey, an international project using CSIRO’s ASKAP radio telescope to detect atomic hydrogen emission from about half a million galaxies.

The creation of this and other astronomical images are all composite because they include information that our eyes can’t capture. In this particular case, the cold hydrogen gas component, invisible to the human eye, is seen in radio “light” using CSIRO’s ASKAP. The subtle colour gradient of this ring represents the orbital motions of the gas, with purple-ish tints at the bottom tracing gas that moves towards the viewer while the top portion moves away. The emission from the ring was separated from the radio emission emanating from the disk of the galaxy using virtual reality tools, in collaboration with Professor Tom Jarrett (University of Cape Town, South Africa).

As the abstract of the research paper notes, the computer models used “show that the data are consistent with PRGs [polar-ring galaxies] but do not definitively prove that the galaxies are PRGs.” There is much uncertainty, as it is difficult to determine the orientation of some rings relative to their galaxy’s plane.

Nonetheless, these result suggest polar ring galaxies might be more common, and thus might help refine the theories of galaxy formation and merger.

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Starlink and SES team up to provide broadband service to cruise lines

SpaceX’s Starlink constellation and SES’s satellites in higher orbits are forming a partnership to provide cruise ships better global coverage for broadband.

The SES Cruise mPowered + Starlink service would mostly use SpaceX’s low Earth orbit network (LEO) and satellites in medium Earth orbit (MEO) from SES. In northern and southern regions, apart from the poles where there is no service, SES vice president of product management for maritime products Gregory Martin said their joint offering would leverage its geostationary satellites.

SES would sell and manage the multi-orbit service when it becomes operational later this year and SpaceX would get a cut of the sales, Martin told SpaceNews in an interview.

It appears by partnering their services, the two companies make the deal better for cruise companies.

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Weird rocks on Mars

Weird rocks seen by Curiosity and Perseverance
For original images, go here and here.

Time for two cool images, this time from both of the American rovers on Mars.

The left picture above was taken on September 9, 2023 by the high resolution mast camera on Curiosity. It shows what appears to be a many-layered but rounded rock which appears typical of the many boulders that cover the terrain through which Curiosity is presently traveling. In the past the layered rocks that Curiosity has observed lower on the flanks of Mount Sharp have not been rounded. Instead, the delicate layers have often extended outward at the rock’s edges, almost like paper or threads. For some reason, the layers in the rocks here have been eroded smooth, suggesting they were once covered by flowing water or ice, able to round the rough edges in a way that Mars’ thin atmosphere can’t.

What is puzzling is the location, higher on Mount Sharp. One would expect the reverse, with such erosion more typical lower on the mountain and uneroded delicate layers more common higher on the mountain.

The right picture above was taken on September 8, 2023 by one of the high resolution mast cameras on the rover Perseverance in Jezero Crater, about 5,000 miles to west of Curiosity. It shows a rock whose shape is so strange it is hard to fathom a geological process that would result in this form. Possibly the rock was a surface layer on a larger round boulder, and the normal freeze-thaw cycle of Mars caused it crack off as one piece. The lump in the middle however makes this explanation questionable.

Also puzzling is the curved shape. On Mars almost no geological layers have been found that are curved. They are generally flat and horizontal, reflecting the lack of tectonic processes that on Earth often twist and squash layers.

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Ingenuity completes 58th flight on Mars

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

Ingenuity yesterday successfully completed its 58th flight on Mars, flying 571 feet to the northwest for 107 seconds at a height of 33 feet.

The overview map above shows with the green line the approximate route of the helicopter. Though the Ingenuity engineering team has updated the flight log (at the link above), the route has not yet been added to the Perseverance interactive map. I am guessing at that route based upon the flight plan posted on September 7, 2023, which stated the rover would head northwest as well as image science targets. That suggests it was flown above Perseverance’s planned route, as indicated by the red dotted line.

This particular flight was different than recent flights, which have generally lasted slightly longer and covered a slightly longer distance, probably so the helicopter could find a safe landing spot. This time Ingenuity landed about 23 seconds early, though the distance traveled was still slightly longer. The difference once again was almost certainly caused by the helicopter’s software picking a good landing spot. It just got above its planned landing spot sooner than expected, found a good pad, and then landed.

The blue dot marks Perseverance’s present location. It is presently moving west to reach what the scientists consider an important geological contact between two layers.

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Repeating moonquakes on Moon found to be caused by remaining sections of Apollo 17’s LM

Scientists reviewing the archive seismic data produced by the seismometers placed on the Moon by the Apollo missions have discovered that repeating small moonquakes in that data were actually caused by base of Apollo 17’s Lunar Module (LM) that provided a launchpad for the part of the LM that lifted the astronauts off the Moon.

Triangulating the origin of the mystery quakes, researchers surprisingly realized they came from the Apollo 17 lunar lander base, which expands and vibrates each morning as it becomes heated by the sun.

“Every lunar morning when the sun hits the lander, it starts popping off,” Allen Husker, a Caltech research professor of geophysics who worked on the project, said in a statement. “Every five to six minutes another one, over a period of five to seven Earth hours. They were incredibly regular and repeating.”

That the extreme range of temperatures experienced by the LM could cause detectable quakes as the LM base expanded suggests strongly how difficult it is for a spacecraft to survive the lunar night lasting 14 Earth days. For all we know, that base has now literally fallen apart due to these stresses. This in turn suggests it is highly unlikely that India’s Pragyan rover will come back to life when the sun rises on September 22, 2023.

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Lucy gets first images of its first target asteroid, Dinkinesh

The asteroid Dinkinesh as seen by Lucy

The asteroid probe Lucy has obtained its first images of Dinkinesh, the first of the ten asteroids the spacecraft is hoping to visit during its twelve year voyage to the Trojan asteroids.

The image to the left shows the motion of that asteroid over a two day period when Lucy was getting the pictures.

Lucy took these images while it was 14 million miles (23 million km) away from the asteroid, which is only about a half-mile wide (1 km). Over the next two months, Lucy will continue toward Dinkinesh until its closest approach of 265 miles (425 km) on Nov. 1, 2023. The Lucy team will use this encounter as an opportunity to test out spacecraft systems and procedures, focusing on the spacecraft’s terminal tracking system, designed to keep the asteroid within the instruments’ fields of view as the spacecraft flies by at 10,000 mph (4.5 km/s). Lucy will continue to image the asteroid over the next months as part of its optical navigation program, which uses the asteroid’s apparent position against the star background to determine the relative position of Lucy and Dinkinesh to ensure an accurate flyby. Dinkinesh will remain an unresolved point of light during the long approach and won’t start to show surface detail until the day of the encounter.

Lucy’s primary targets are asteroids in the two Trojan groups that orbit the Sun in the two Lagrange points in same orbit as Jupiter, fore and aft of the gas giant by 60 degrees. For a map of Lucy’s full mission profile, go here.

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Frank Rubio on ISS sets new record for an American in space

Though Frank Rubio was only supposed to do a six month mission, a leak on the Soyuz capsule that brought him and his two crewmates into space has resulted in all three doing a mission exceeding one year, and setting a new record for an American in space.

Today Rubio broke the old American record of 355 days, set by Mark Vande Hei in 2022. When they return on September 27, 2023, all three will have spent 371 days in space, the third longest manned mission in history, exceeded only by Sergei Avdeyev’s 381 in 1999 and Valeri Polyakov’s 437 in 1994-1995, both on Russia’s Mir space station.

Based on my interviews with Polyakov and Musa Manarov (who was on the first mission with Vladimir Titov to spend one year in space — 366 days total — in 1988) for my book Leaving Earth, it will take Rubio about one year to fully recover from this mission, though he will likely be able to function almost normally within a month or so.

It remains interesting that these American records set by Rubio and Vande Hei occurred because of decisions by the Russians, not the American space agency NASA. NASA has consistently resisted doing long missions on ISS, even though this is exactly the kind of medical research required if we are to send humans on multi-year missions to Mars and beyond. Even more embarrassing, the longest NASA planned mission, flying Scott Kelly for 340 days, was touted by NASA as a year-long mission, even though it was never going to and did not achieve that distinction.

In doing this research the Russians have always led, and appear to continue to do so on ISS.

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SpaceX launches 21 Starlink satellites

SpaceX last night launched 21 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg in California, using its Falcon 9 rocket.

The first stage completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

64 SpaceX
42 China
12 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

In the national rankings, American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 74 to 42. It also now leads the entire world combined, 74 to 67, while SpaceX by itself now trails the rest of the world (excluding American companies) only 64 to 67.

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Ridge in Martian lowland plains

Tiny ridge in Martian lowlands
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image is interesting not because it shows us some spectacular Martian terrain, but because the most distinct feature is a thin ridge only a few feet high that pokes up out of the northern lowland plains for apparently no reason.

The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on July 1, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The ridge is about 1.8 miles long, and is only about five feet high on its western end, rising to about 25 feet on its eastern end.

The colors differences indicate that the ridge’s peak is likely bedrock, and the surrounding greenish/blue hue suggesting sand and rocks covered with dust. The ridge might be the top of a deeper buried topological feature but that is only a guess.
» Read more

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A galactic cloud

A galactic cloud
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope. It shows what scientists dub a lenticular galaxy, with features that put it somewhere between a spiral galaxy and an elliptical (which has no structure a appears instead a cloud of stars), sitting about 73 million light years away.

NGC 3156 has been studied in many ways … from its cohort of globular clusters, to its relatively recent star formation, to the stars that are being destroyed by the supermassive black hole at its centre.

Why this galaxy has no spiral arms is somehow related to its age and its central black hole, but the detailed theories that astronomers have to explain this are far from confirmed.

The image is interesting also because of its lack of foreground stars or background galaxies. Its location in the sky explains this, as Hubble was looking at right angle to the Milky Way’s galactic plane, essentially looking directly into the vast emptiness between the galaxies.

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Two launches today, one by ULA and one by China

Today there were two successful launches. First China launched a remote sensing satellite using its Long March 6 rocket that lifted off from its Taiyuan spaceport in the south of China.

No word on where the rocket’s lower stages and four strap-on boosters crashed inside China.

Shortly thereafter, ULA used its Atlas-5 rocket to place a reconnaissance satellite into orbit for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

For ULA, this was only its second launch in 2023. The leaders in the 2023 launch race are now as follows, with China’s total corrected:

63 SpaceX
42 China
12 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

In the national rankings, American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 73 to 42. It also now leads the entire world combined, 73 to 67, while SpaceX by itself now trails the rest of the world (excluding American companies) only 63 to 67.

CORRECTION: Hat tip to reader John Foley (see his comment below), who noted that China’s total appeared to be one short. I went back and discovered I had missed a March 22, 2023 launch of a Kuaizhou 1A rocket from the Jiujian spaceport, placing four weather satellites in orbit. I have now added that launch to China’s total, and corrected the other numbers.

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SpaceX launches 22 Starlink satellites

SpaceX tonight successfully launched another 22 Starlink satellites, lifting off from Cape Canaveral using its Falcon 9 rocket.

The first stage completed its seventh flight, landing safely on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

63 SpaceX
40 China
12 Russia
7 Rocket Lab
7 India

In the national rankings, American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 72 to 40. It also now leads the entire world combined, 72 to 65, while SpaceX by itself now trails the rest of the world (excluding American companies) only 63 to 65.

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Curiosity’s upcoming travels on Mount Sharp

Curiosity's view on September 6, 2023
Click for original image.

Overview map
Click for interactive map.

The panorama above, cropped, reduced, sharpened, and annotated to post here, was created on September 6, 2023 from eleven pictures taken by the right navigation camera on the Mars rover Curiosity.

This mosaic looks south, into the slot canyon dubbed Gediz Valles. The red dotted line on the panorama as well as the overview map to the right indicates the planned route the science team plans on traveling as it sends Curiosity higher and higher on Mount Sharp. On the overview map Curiosity’s present position is indicated by the blue dot. The yellow lines show the approximate area covered by the panorama above.

As noted in today’s update from the science team:

The rover is currently driving across bumpy terrain consisting of rounded bedrock sticking up between dark sand and drift as she drives south, and slightly uphill, along the Mt. Sharp Ascent Route. Due to the rugged ground, the rover sometimes ends her drive with a wheel or two perched on a rock.

When the rover’s placement prevents use of the arm, the scientists have it do other things, such as take more images of the many layers on Kukenan.

As rocky as this future route is, it appears it is less rocky than earlier terrain, which the science team found impossible to traverse requiring several route detours. Thus, the pace forward has been a bit faster lately.

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Good news? FAA issues own report on April Starship/Superheavy launch

The FAA today closed out its own investigation into the April test launch failure of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy rocket, stating that it found “63 corrective actions SpaceX must take” before another launch license will be issued.

Corrective actions include redesigns of vehicle hardware to prevent leaks and fires, redesign of the launch pad to increase its robustness, incorporation of additional reviews in the design process, additional analysis and testing of safety critical systems and components including the Autonomous Flight Safety System, and the application of additional change control practices.

It is not clear how many of these corrections have already been completed by SpaceX. The FAA made it clear however that it does not yet consider its requirements to have been met.

The closure of the mishap investigation does not signal an immediate resumption of Starship launches at Boca Chica. SpaceX must implement all corrective actions that impact public safety and apply for and receive a license modification from the FAA that addresses all safety, environmental and other applicable regulatory requirements prior to the next Starship launch.

The timeline suggests FAA is demanding additional actions from SpaceX. The company submitted its own investigation report to the FAA on August 16th. The FAA then spent almost a month reviewing it, during which it almost certainly decided some of SpaceX’s corrections were insufficient. It has now followed up with its own report, listing additional actions required.

Remember, no one at the FAA is qualified or even in a position to do a real investigation. They are simply acting as a chess kibitzer on the sidelines, making annoying commentary based on less information than held by the players of the game (in this case SpaceX). Unlike a chess kibitzer, however, the FAA controls the board, and can force SpaceX to do its recommended moves, or declare the game forfeited by SpaceX.

If the FAA has required additional actions, we will find out in the next few days when SpaceX destacks Starship/Superheavy and rolls both back into the assembly building. It is also possible we instead shall have a few weeks of back-and-forth negotiations by phone, zoom, paper, and face-to-face meetings, whereby SpaceX engineers will be desperately trying to make FAA paper-pushers understand some of their engineering work which will eventually result in an agreement by the FAA to let SpaceX launch.

Remember, none of this kind of regulatory interference and investigation took place between SpaceX and the FAA during the Trump administration when SpaceX was flying a Starship suborbital test flight almost monthly. The heavy boot of regulation arrived soon after Biden. The two are closely linked.

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Senate approves Biden’s FCC nominee, giving him a Democrat majority on FCC

FCC: now controlled by Democrats
The FCC, now controlled by the
power-hungry Democratic Party

Failure theater: The Senate yesterday voted 55 to 43 to approve Biden’s Federal Communications Commission (FCC) nominee, Anna Gomez, thus giving the Democrats a 4 to 3 majority on the Commission.

This was Biden’s second nominee to the commission, with the first withdrawn when it was clear the Senate opposed the nominee.

Biden tried again in May with the nomination of Gomez, a State Department digital policy official who was previously deputy assistant secretary at the US National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) from 2009 to 2023. A lawyer, Gomez was vice president of government affairs at Sprint Nextel from 2006 to 2009 and before that spent about 12 years at the FCC in several roles.

Gomez got through the confirmation process with relative ease, though most Republicans voted against her. Both parties seem to expect the FCC to reinstate net neutrality rules now that Democrats will have a majority.

Imposing net neutrality is essentially socialism/communism for the internet. It will squash competition, cost a fortune, and eventually be used as well to squelch dissent online (which translates into silencing conservatives).

From the perspective of space, the majority on the FCC is likely very bad news as well, for several reasons. » Read more

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Layered glaciers in two small Martian craters

Layered glaciers in two small Martian craters
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on April 7, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows what planetary scientists label somewhat vaguely as “layered deposits,” because though the features inside both of these craters strongly resemble glacial ice features, until this is confirmed a good scientist remains skeptical.

I can be more bold, and call the layers glacial in both of these small and very shallow craters (less than a 100 feet deep). To explain this it is important to understand that the lighting and shadows make it hard to distinguish the high points of these layers. Based on the elevation data from MRO, the ground descends to the south, and the mesa in the southern half of each crater’s floor is actually far below the layers and material to the north.

This elevation data suggests that the layered material is surviving best against the crater’s northern interior wall, which at this latitude, about 36 degrees south, will be in shadow the most.
» Read more

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Ingenuity flies on, completing its 57th flight

Overview map
Click for interactive map

On September 3, 2023 Ingenuity successfully completed its 57th flight on Mars, traveling 713 feet for two minutes and nine seconds. As noted at the tweet at the link, the helicopter has now accumulated more than 100 minutes of flight time.

As it has on almost all its recent flights, the helicopter flew a slightly longer distance for slightly longer that its flight plan, probably because it was taking time to find a safe landing spot.

The green dot on the overview map above shows Ingenuity’s new location. It has moved west and north of Perseverance, following the rover’s planned route as indicated by the red dotted line. The blue dot marks Perseverance’s present location. The yellow lines indicate the approximate area of the mosaic below, just released by the Perseverance science team, taken on July 8, 2023 by the rover’s high resolution camera and cropped and reduced to post here. It shows us the rover’s eventual path forward, into that mountain gap.

Mosaic looking west at the rim of Jezero Crater
Click for original, full resolution image (a large file).

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MOXIE completes its last run on Mars, producing oxygen from the atmosphere

The MOXIE instrument on the rover Perseverance in Jezero Crater on Mars has completed its sixteenth and last operational run, once again demonstrating that oxygen can be extracted from the Martian atmosphere in sufficient quantities to supply a future colony of humans.

Since Perseverance landed on Mars in 2021, MOXIE has generated a total of 122 grams of oxygen – about what a small dog breathes in 10 hours. At its most efficient, MOXIE was able to produce 12 grams of oxygen an hour – twice as much as NASA’s original goals for the instrument – at 98% purity or better. On its 16th run, on Aug. 7, the instrument made 9.8 grams of oxygen. MOXIE successfully completed all of its technical requirements and was operated at a variety of conditions throughout a full Mars year, allowing the instrument’s developers to learn a great deal about the technology.

Future MOXIEs will likely be larger in scale, even more efficient, and include methods for liquifying and storing any oxygen produced, though for producing a breathable atmosphere for Martian colonists all that would be needed would be an enclosed habitat. An operating MOXIE-type oxygen generator could fill it.

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