A review of the last half century of major ice calving events in Antarctica detects no trend
Click for original image.
The uncertainty of science: A review by scientists of major ice calving events in Antarctica that have occurred in the last 47 years has detected absolutely no trend either up or down, despite decades of predictions that human caused global warming would cause huge sections of the icecap to break off and catastrophically change the Earth’s climate.
The graph to the right comes from figure 4 of the paper, and illustrates the lack of trend. Note how the actual observations, the blue dots, show no increase in large calving events. From the abstract:
We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.
The researchers of course genuflect to human-caused global warming in their conclusion by stating that the shrinkage predicted in the Antarctic ice cap (but not yet seen in any significant amount) could instead be occurring due to an increase in small calving events.
The lack of an upward trend in annual maximum iceberg area could be attributed to an overall increase in the number of smaller calving events, which may inhibit the development of extremely large calving events. As such, small calving events pose the greatest threat to the current stability of Antarctic ice shelves.
Since there is no detailed or reliable data of the number of smaller calving events, this hypothesis is entirely made up, and carries no weight. It is simply a fantasy created to maintain the fiction of global warming. A more open-minded look at these results would say that the larger events provide an excellent guide to the overall trend, and that the icecap simply isn’t shrinking as predicted.
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Click for original image.
The uncertainty of science: A review by scientists of major ice calving events in Antarctica that have occurred in the last 47 years has detected absolutely no trend either up or down, despite decades of predictions that human caused global warming would cause huge sections of the icecap to break off and catastrophically change the Earth’s climate.
The graph to the right comes from figure 4 of the paper, and illustrates the lack of trend. Note how the actual observations, the blue dots, show no increase in large calving events. From the abstract:
We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.
The researchers of course genuflect to human-caused global warming in their conclusion by stating that the shrinkage predicted in the Antarctic ice cap (but not yet seen in any significant amount) could instead be occurring due to an increase in small calving events.
The lack of an upward trend in annual maximum iceberg area could be attributed to an overall increase in the number of smaller calving events, which may inhibit the development of extremely large calving events. As such, small calving events pose the greatest threat to the current stability of Antarctic ice shelves.
Since there is no detailed or reliable data of the number of smaller calving events, this hypothesis is entirely made up, and carries no weight. It is simply a fantasy created to maintain the fiction of global warming. A more open-minded look at these results would say that the larger events provide an excellent guide to the overall trend, and that the icecap simply isn’t shrinking as predicted.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
wikipedia is a bit unclear as to whether the entire Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking or not. I assume that means the Antarctic is not losing ice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_ice_sheet
but they do say Artic sea ice has declined by 50% since the first satellite images.
“… The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty-first century, with a decline rate of 4.7% per decade (it has declined over 50% since the first satellite records) …”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline#:~:text=Global%20warming%2C%20caused%20by%20greenhouse,since%20the%20first%20satellite%20records).
NY Times had an alarming article this week on artic tundra wildfires.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/climate/arctic-emissions-carbon-ice-warming.html
There is no giant thermostat in the sky which says it has to be 300 parts per million of CO2, or whatever.
Greens are bent on the idea that we just have to go back to pre-industrial levels–like when the Thames froze over.
No thanks.
I seem to remember -perhaps on BtB an article discussing an old National Geographic map showing much less ice at the arctic circle than there is today.
I seem to remember an article – perhaps on BtB – that showed an older National Geographic map with much less arctic ice than today.
“The lack of an upward trend in annual maximum iceberg area could be [hypothesis] attributed to an overall increase in the number of smaller calving events, which may [hypothesis] inhibit the development of extremely large calving events. As such, small calving events pose [declarative statement] the greatest threat to the current stability of Antarctic ice shelves.”
As Tim Allen would say: “Hunhh?!”
The common term for “small ice calving events” is called “melting”… Antarctica is a large continent with 3 miles of ice on top of it. The worlds largest glacier system flowing to where? The South pacific ocean we’re hundreds of feet thick ice slides into the ocean. When enough of the ice flow extends into the bottom of the ocean where it eventually begins to float, the melting accelerates but the ice is thick and will extend for miles before a large section will break off. Meanwhile the calving (melting) occurs constantly because pacific water is warm.
The graph above confirms what observations have been telling people all my life. Thank you for posting this.
As for the arctic, the only glacier systems flowing into the Arctic sea is off of Greenland. The rest of the Arctic is covered in ice seasonally and melts seasonally. It’s average winter time thickness every year is 3 to 9 feet thick. (The movies of submarines coming up through the ice is a good illustration of how thin it is)
When I lived above the Arctic Circle, I experienced 24 hour sunlight keeping the temperatures between 60 and 80° all summer. All the snow melted and ran to the rivers because of the permafrost, everything else was just a muddy mess with lots of mosquitoes.
Pilot whales live in the Arctic year around, they need air to breathe which indicates that the Arctic is never completely frozen over… Not ever.
It’s the loss of all the cute cuddly polar bears like Al Gore said that breaks my heart. Without the Antarctic ice the poor guys stood no chance. But now that I think about it, they were white so I guess they had it coming.
John, Polar bears are not native to the Antarctic and there are no penguins in the Arctic
The ice in the arctic circle is already afloat. Glaciers calving off Greenland and Antarctica is what is scaring folks.
I wish China would abandon Silk Road II through Islamic countries and build oil derrick towers beneath the waves so as to have a Drake passage route. Transport that ice to where fresh water is needed.
Okay, if you melt Arctic Sea ice, do you get salt water or fresh water? If it is salt water, what do Polar Bears drink? If it is fresh water… how?
Awwww, so the climate change killed all the penguins in the Arctic too. So sad, they were only part white. Poor bastards.