No trend in hurricanes since 1970
The uncertainty of science: A new study has found no trend, up or down, in hurricanes that made landfall since the 1970s, despite many global warming predictions that said the numbers of catastrophic hurricanes would increase.
Key quote:
There are a lot of ups and downs in the data, but no obvious trends.
The scientists note that though they see no obvious trends, it is difficult to pin anything down because the variability from year to year is so great.
That large variability in occurrence means – as a simple matter of mathematics – that our ability to detect changes in tropical cyclones one or two magnitudes smaller (or more) on similar time scales is obviously made difficult, if not impossible.
So, when next you hear a global warming expert, either a teenager not attending school or a Democratic politician who doesn’t remember anything from school, claiming we are all going to die from giant hurricanes caused by human-caused global warming, remember this study. It demonstrates that those “experts” have no idea what they are talking about.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The uncertainty of science: A new study has found no trend, up or down, in hurricanes that made landfall since the 1970s, despite many global warming predictions that said the numbers of catastrophic hurricanes would increase.
Key quote:
There are a lot of ups and downs in the data, but no obvious trends.
The scientists note that though they see no obvious trends, it is difficult to pin anything down because the variability from year to year is so great.
That large variability in occurrence means – as a simple matter of mathematics – that our ability to detect changes in tropical cyclones one or two magnitudes smaller (or more) on similar time scales is obviously made difficult, if not impossible.
So, when next you hear a global warming expert, either a teenager not attending school or a Democratic politician who doesn’t remember anything from school, claiming we are all going to die from giant hurricanes caused by human-caused global warming, remember this study. It demonstrates that those “experts” have no idea what they are talking about.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
There are a lot of ups and downs with temperature too but the low number of hurricanes makes it harder to imagine patterns. Of course, waiting for a data set that is large enough to be meaningful means that people can’t seize on human’s evolutionary fear of an uncertain future in order to gain political power.
Gee, what do you know! Guess Al Gore and David Suzuki may have been wrong?
This is an email from a developing conversation I am having with a 35 year old, Liberal, gay, young lady (Hates Trump :) friend who considers herself an urban prepper of sorts.
———————
As an example: We have all been warned about how hurricanes have become more plentiful and even more powerful and dangerous, more deadly even (Be afraid). These “facts” are spouted in the media and parroted by politicians every day 24 / 7 and has become imbedded in the every day discussion of many Americans.
But then you look at the actual evidence / data, specifically related to hurricanes. 50 years of hurricane data and what does it show?
————-The Forbes Article———-
Hurricanes have not in fact increased in either number or furiosity. By what was being sold you would expect that those data charts would be standing almost straight up and going higher related to hurricane frequency and intensity. But that is not what is in fact, by the evidence, happening.
It began as just plain old “Global Warming”, and that was too specific, what if the earth did not participate and it cooled? Then it transformed into “Anthropogenic Global warming”, I think that confused people because that’s a big word and the data did not support it and so it had to become the more generalized term “Climate Change”. That way what ever happened the term would cover it. Controlling words and terms and their definitions.
My main point here, weather, environment, pollution and CO2 levels aside for the moment, we will get to what is valid and what is not, these words and terms are being created and modified and controlled as needed and are used in an attempt to shape opinions in the world and specifically in America with the end goal being to install a One World type government control model. And this model demands that America be defanged and to be gotten in line in this Socialist / EU style model. And that demands that the Constitution be hollowed out and made neutral.
And that potential resulting power vacuum in the world will without doubt be filled by the Chinese. Without a strong America, China owns the planet earth. (This may all sound crazy to you but I have been at this for a long time and these are my conclusions based in data and by what is plainly being transmitted)
And it may be a stretch for you to make these connections but this is exactly Big Picture what is under way and is a threat to America, you, me and everyone else who believes in our country and freedoms as they are. This is what Soros and all of his billions are focused on accomplishing. Soros is a Globalist (One World Government) its all about control and “Sustainability” so they say, and is not to be confused with someone who believes in Global trade, two very different things.
See: U.N. Agenda 2030. No firearms, no private property and so much more, everything that goes along with it.
—————
It should be an interesting ride.
Cotour:
I totally agree with you on globalism, George Soros and the final purpose of climate hysteria. The dangers of satanic cultural Marxism, which dominates the minds of western elites, exist in many areas. The worst is the sexualization of children. It is pure evil, as Nick Fuentes rightly says.
Nicholas J. Fuentes: The Fabulous Kids of RuPaul’s Drag Convention
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT-FG4VnpCI
Questioner:
Your ability to recognize what I state above as being so and then at the same time raise up a young Right wing American extremist like Nick Fumente as the answer to these issues is much like the Left raising up the likes of the poor little girl who needs a hug, Gretta Thunberg, as being their new “leader”.
Neither a 21 year old personable ultra Conservative young man who can reasonably characterized as an extremist, nor a 16 year old emotional, twisted face young lady be raised up to such heights, they can not competently lead anyone IMO.
And you have also raised up “Vital Islam” as being superior to all Western culture.
Does not compute.
Cotour:
Thank you for your response. How to rank Nick Fuentes’s overall political position is one thing. I’ll come back to that later. Another thing is that what I was talking about here in last comment above (Marxist sexualization of children) should actually be described as abnormal by every normal person. Fuentes is completely right here and I hope you see it that way too. Your comment is welcome.
As for the assessment of Nick Fuente’s political position, which regardless of his political classification, I consider him to be a great political talent as well as his friend James Allsup. Btw, both of them would certainly have made already considerable career progress within the corrupt mainstream Republicans. But both had the option to do so, but they decided, following their heart, otherwise. Please take into account that the whole political system (including the “Conservatives”) has moved extremely left (under the influence of cultural Marxism) in the past 50 years. Furthermore, Nick cultivates the method of sharp contrasting, what earned him the nickname: “Nick the knife”.
He represents more or less conservative positions that were normal around 1960, if you assume a somewhat more moderate presentation of his views. The only reason these positions appear to many people to be extreme or reactionary is that the whole political spectrum has moved extremely to the left (including the Republicans), which is equaled as “progress”. Of course, it won’t stay that way in the long run.
Your comparison of Nick with Greta is wrong in many ways, but not only because Greta is part a large team and a lot of money stands behind her. She is ideological part of the ruling elite and in reality part of the propaganda machinery of the cultural Marxists, who now have the say in the West. With Nick, everything is exactly the opposite: he is against the post-marxist establishment, has no big donor and is even fought by the ruling elite.
As for my use of the word “vital” in the context of the Islamic world, you have misinterpreted it. That is probably my fault. I am primarily referring to the number of offspring, the existence of intact family structures and the strong importance of non-material values and of, related to that, religion. All three points are of course interlinked.
Chairman Mao was also a great political talent, as were many other ambitious men of history, and we can all recognize where they drove the bus. I think the toll is 100 or 200 million dead in modern times? So much for the virtues of political talent.
Your fascination with this young and ambitious Right wing extremist is mystifying to me. “Nick The Knife” lives in his parents basement, literally, by his own honest admission. And to promote that we all go back to the 1960’s is, what is the word? Counter productive? Really racist? Really counter productive? These kinds of “solutions” are not for one moment acceptable in a nation that is as diverse as America is. Its just wrong minded and regressive.
I will accept your correction on the “vital Islam” comment. I happen to agree with you, they are without doubt more prolific than the West in the production of more and more adherents. Their culture however is a dark and also regressive and oppressive culture and needs to be reformed. But that can and never will happen, and therefore it is fundamentally incompatible with the Western ethics and culture. To attempt to blend the two without that fundamental reformation that is a dangerous mostly to the Wests system. So lets not do that.
Cotour:
You don’t really want to compare the ultra-communist and mass murderer Mao with the Christian, paleo-conservative Fuentes? You can not be serious!
You mention America’s diversity. I see this diversity as a threat to America’s internal peace. America pays a very high price for immigration policy, which was introduced after 1965 and is based on leftist ideology. Gradually, an increasingly totalitarian US state will be required to control the growing tensions between different population groups. I’m afraid freedom will be lost for that.
If we don’t agree here, at least let’s fight together against the sexualization of children and globohomo, or are you ultimately a Progressive/Liberal? I hope it not the case.
Wow I Love Pride Month | James Allsup
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS3Xb5X42AU
The funny thing about America and the result of our Constitution and the paradigm changing effects it has is something that I do not believe you understand.
Yes, the Left is perverted in their own special way and has crafted a plan through legislation to infiltrate America with poor dependent immigrants from our Southern border and not from Eastern Europe. But the funny thing about America and our Constitution is that once, usually after a generation in the country, legally or illegally you get to think and act in your own interests. America, the result of out unique Constitution becomes like a contagion, an infection, and there is seldom a cure for it once you acquire it. Yes, this is how we Americans are sick, sick, sick.
This fundamental difference, the existence of the American Constitution, allows one to be optimistic. Think of who is the president currently, D.J. Trump. The president because of the scheming of those same Liberals now Leftists was suppose to be one Hillary Clinton (Ma Barker), that did not work out so well. It was a lock, a 100% lock. The people and the system designed to ensure its own fairness and survival allowed for this result, all primarily based in the judgement of the people and not those elites. And that is why they want to gut it all and make the people ineffective.
Is it perfect? No, but it gives the people the opportunity to take back their power on several levels, up to and including being armed to do so. Very unique, something that is escaping you and the man child “Nick The Knife” who lives in his mommies basement.
In other words you miss the potentials that the unique American Constitution provides. You are promoting old European solutions to problems because you really do not understand America.
Cotour:
Thank you for reply. It is a pity that they do not want to comment on the actual topic, the satanistic sexualization of children and the hyper- (homo-) sexualization of US society (=Globohomo clown world). Then I could see where they really stand politically. Real or false conservative?
I think her bad talk about Nick Fuentes is unfair and somewhat mean. Compare yourself with him where you were mentally and cognitively at the age of 20 or 21. I’m assuming that the review will make you a little more modest.
Surely he should start thinking about moving out of his parents’ house. But you also have to understand it. He can’t be sure if his “business model” will continue to work due to YouTube’s increasing censorship, even if last year may have supplied a pretty good living (rumor: $ 200,000?) to him. The fact that he was recently demonitarized by Youtube proves his caution.
I think I know a little bit more about the political situation in America than you think. It seems to me that your optimism about the integration of the many millions of immigrants is not very justified. Among other things, for two reasons: 1. These immigrants predominantly vote for the Democrats, as proven. 2. There are now so many of them that they no longer have to integrate (or become Americans) into main society. Their number is sufficient to form their own societies in America. And at some time point in future, not so far away, they are even the majority. At first in America’s South-West.
Btw, open border policy is part of cultural Marxist / Globalist ideology. Why do you share and support these views?
If you have ever read anything that I have ever written here on BTB about such things you can not reasonably conclude that I am a big supporter or a supporter in any way shape or form of the “Marxist / Globalist” ideology.
I heard that “Nick The Knife’s” mother made him take the garbage out and wash the car the other day in return for his “Man”, or as Jesse Lee Peterson calls him “Beta Male” cave.
Like I said, some things just do not make sense to me.
” . . . Claiming we are all going to die from giant hurricanes . . .”
I’ve never come across any such claim and neither have you, so straw man.
Pay attention, Andrew W:
https://youtu.be/Q0u-Jc33C1Y 1:46 min That is all it will take.
Shep Smith “Your going to die!”.
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-more-deadly
“It’s a fact: climate change made Hurricane Harvey more deadly ”
No straw man, your just not paying attention, or maybe you are paying attention and just hear what you want to hear?
Cotour, you must have sent me the wrong links as there were no claims in them that we’re all going to die.
I have a friend and he is a bit of a Liberal rock head, a Trump hater for hates sake, and despite what ever actual evidence is presented and what reasonable people would agree were facts he just refuses the reality of it all.
I tell him right to his face that he is a “Knuckle head” bordering on a “Chuckle head”. I am not calling you that here on BTB, but you and possibly one other poster here are starting to remind me of him.
Funny, you can accuse me of being pedantic, but at least I’m not making things up. You on the other hand have been unable to supply anything to support your claim and resort to the ad homenim of saying I remind you of a “knucklehead bordering on “chucklehead”.
Andrew W:
As per the Forbes article, there has been no appreciable increase in either frequency or intensity in hurricanes in the past 50 years according to the data presented. Many media talking heads and politicians on the Left claim the exact opposite. And without doubt these media talking heads and Left leaning politicians have been promoting that hurricanes have become more deadly.
Reconcile.
I’ve made no claims about trends in frequency or intensity of hurricanes, I have seen data that points to more hurricanes but that less are making landfall due to hurricanes taking more eastward tracks.
Lets diagnose:
“I’ve made no claims about trends in frequency or intensity of hurricanes”.
Then in the same sentence you state:
“I have seen data that points to more hurricanes “.
Do you see now why you are reminding me of my friend?
Andrew _W,
You wrote: “‘. . . Claiming we are all going to die from giant hurricanes . . .’
“I’ve never come across any such claim and neither have you, so straw man.”
Really? The last I heard we have until the end of 2030, and then it is all over.
(The first I heard was that we had until the year 2000, but Anthropomorphic Global Warming (AGW) advocates have set multiple deadlines since then, too.)
One might think that the AGW crowd is crying wolf, but judging by your reaction the AGW crowd stops acknowledging these deadlines and drop-dead dates almost as soon as they are proclaimed.
Then again, some of those who proclaim our doom run out and buy oceanfront housing. So much for those hurricanes. Most AGW advocates, however, merely continue to use powered transportation, power their homes and workplaces, and buy goods and services that are produced and delivered using power, so we really can’t take seriously the whole “we’re all going to die” crowd.
A couple of years ago, a hurricane made its way up the U.S. East Coast, and the New York subways flooded. The AGW crowd claimed that this was proof positive that the oceans were rising and that they were right about the end of the world, if we didn’t do something fast. Of course, the New York subways flood whenever there is more than a normal amount of rain, so the AGW advocates just tried to play on people’s ignorance of reality. The same goes for Miami waterfront roads flooding during unusually high tides, since much of the Florida peninsula is only a couple of meters above sea level.
Obama even declared during his inauguration that “the oceans will stop their rise,” but judging from the reactions of AGW advocates, Obama did not have such god-like powers after all, and now we have only eleven years left. Tick tock, tick tock.
Eat, drink, and be merry for (a few years after) tomorrow we die.
I wasn’t the author of the data I was referring to, and data is data, it’s a measure, not an opinion but as the article makes clear there is not particularly high confidence given the variability in hurricane numbers year to year.
Edward, Cotour hasn’t provided evidence that people have claimed we’re all going to “die from giant hurricanes”, do you think you can do better?
Here is a human being that claims what you claim no one has claimed.
Shep Smith, talking head https://youtu.be/Q0u-Jc33C1Y
No it does not. He’s referring to a specific situation with one particular hurricane and only to people in the hurricanes path. Nothing to do with the claim that’s being discussed about AGW causing giant hurricanes that will “kill us all.
Try this on:
https://youtu.be/F-IgOWwzIL4
This one points out death, catastrophe, and even they talk about Obama pointing out how the seas will rise. I suppose he had that halted around Marathas vineyard before he plunked down his $13 million?
WTH? (What the heck) the video you link to doesn’t even mention hurricanes, let alone giant hurricanes that are going to kill us all!
Andrew _W,
A few hours ago, you said that someone accused you of being pedantic. I join him in that accusation.
AGW advocates continually tell us that we are all going to die from AGW. I’m pretty sure that the doomsayers were adamant that there would be more and more Katrina-type hurricanes that would be a major part of our doom. If hurricanes would not be part of our doom, then why did they harp on and on about them?
Be it rising oceans, hurricanes, melting ice at our poles or in our scotch-on-the-rocks, or droughts accompanied by floods, it does not much matter, because every year our doom keeps not happening, as we pass deadline after drop-dead date.
Isn’t that the point? That all this doomsaying is bogus hocus pocus? Or maybe it is just hokum. Either way, even the true believers don’t believe in it.
YouTube Rationality Rulers recently put up a video taking “nutpickers” with their “nutpicking” to task, nutpicking is picking out claims made by nutters on the other side of a debate and smearing the nutty claims across all your opponents. Mr Zimmerman has just gone one further, picking out nutty claims not being made by alarmists and smearing them with those fictitious claims.
RE people do exist Edward, as do other people with extreme views that are best ignored, your argument is just an appeal that nutpicking and smearing their claims across others is reasonable. Perhaps to you it is.
This video stresses the year 2030, and it just so happens that the U.N. has something called Agenda 2030 that has been in the draw for many years. How convenient, just like the Patriot Act. (And this is why Trump is such a monkey wrench in these Leftists like Soros and all of the really intelligent and wealthy among us)
https://youtu.be/mFgXTQ7o56E
We need the U.N. and these Globalists to solve all of these problems for us all, in America and all over the world. OR WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE! Catastrophe (code word for death), starvation (Code word for death), flooding, rising tides, melting glaciers, bush fires, earth quakes, (All code words and terms for death, your death) it will all be solved when the damn Americans surrender their Constitution and their taxes, their wealth, their guns, their Bibles and their free speech to the U.N. and get in line. Be afraid!
https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/22267-un-agenda-2030-a-recipe-for-global-socialism
I think you and all of the other Chuckle heads on the planet know what it is that I think you really need to be afraid of. Or after all of this, do I have to continue to explain this to you?
RE supposed to be ER (extinction rebellion), autocorrect.
Andrew _W,
You wrote: “your argument is just an appeal that nutpicking and smearing their claims across others is reasonable”
Isn’t the topic of discussion the claims of the “nutters,” those with extreme views who say that we are all going to die? Wasn’t this topic picked by you in your first comment in this thread?
Here’s a good one, claims extinction (Extinction = death) for us all on the planet within the first 60 seconds.
https://youtu.be/21D3ByfPTx8
“The Last Hours Of Humanity”
How am I doing Andrew W? Satisfied now?
Googled “we’re all going to die from giant hurricanes” and found a few articles.
Nothing in that one claiming we’re all going to die from giant hurricanes either Contour, so na, you’re still on zero.
Andi, that’s surprising, all I got was:
“No results found for “we’re all going to die from giant hurricanes”.”
Andrew_W:
Yowza, ma’ man!
Do you really (really, really, really?) think one can type in that phrase, and get accurate search results from it?
You are placing way tooo much faith in these companies and the people who run them.
Ferengi Rules of Acquisition No. 190
“Hear all, trust nothing.”
Dr. Robert Epstein
Stanford Seminar –
“The Search Engine Manipulation Effect (SEME) and Its Unparalleled Power”
October 2015
https://youtu.be/TSN6LE06J54
1:14:03
and the companion follow-up
Stanford Seminar –
“Unethical Algorithms of Massive Scale”
Dr. Robert Epstein
June 2017
-available at the same site-
(Ill spare Mr. Z having to moderate 2 links in one post.)
For years I have been going to the beach and its never got closer. Why not?