OSIRIS-REx scientists refine Bennu’s future Earth impact possibilities
Using the orbital and gravity data compiled during OSIRIS-REx’s visit to the asteroid Bennu, scientists have refined its future orbits as well as the most likely moments it might impact the Earth.
In 2135, asteroid Bennu will make a close approach with Earth. Although the near-Earth object will not pose a danger to our planet at that time, scientists must understand Bennu’s exact trajectory during that encounter in order to predict how Earth’s gravity will alter the asteroid’s path around the Sun – and affect the hazard of Earth impact.
Using NASA’s Deep Space Network and state-of-the-art computer models, scientists were able to significantly shrink uncertainties in Bennu’s orbit, determining its total impact probability through the year 2300 is about 1 in 1,750 (or 0.057%). The researchers were also able to identify Sept. 24, 2182, as the most significant single date in terms of a potential impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700 (or about 0.037%).
Although the chances of it hitting Earth are very low, Bennu remains one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system, along with another asteroid called 1950 DA.
This paper’s conclusions are confirming what had been found earlier in the mission, while OSIRIS-REx was still flying in formation with the asteroid. Nonetheless, it is essential to refine these numbers as precisely as possible, so this confirmation is excellent news.
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Using the orbital and gravity data compiled during OSIRIS-REx’s visit to the asteroid Bennu, scientists have refined its future orbits as well as the most likely moments it might impact the Earth.
In 2135, asteroid Bennu will make a close approach with Earth. Although the near-Earth object will not pose a danger to our planet at that time, scientists must understand Bennu’s exact trajectory during that encounter in order to predict how Earth’s gravity will alter the asteroid’s path around the Sun – and affect the hazard of Earth impact.
Using NASA’s Deep Space Network and state-of-the-art computer models, scientists were able to significantly shrink uncertainties in Bennu’s orbit, determining its total impact probability through the year 2300 is about 1 in 1,750 (or 0.057%). The researchers were also able to identify Sept. 24, 2182, as the most significant single date in terms of a potential impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700 (or about 0.037%).
Although the chances of it hitting Earth are very low, Bennu remains one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system, along with another asteroid called 1950 DA.
This paper’s conclusions are confirming what had been found earlier in the mission, while OSIRIS-REx was still flying in formation with the asteroid. Nonetheless, it is essential to refine these numbers as precisely as possible, so this confirmation is excellent news.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
My understanding is that asteroids occupy inherently unstable orbits due to the number of unknown interactions which result in unpredictable modifications to their path. I’ve got a hunch my understanding is rather simplistic, could someone elaborate, please? Thank you
Col Beausabre,
It’s a fascinating field that has developed rather recently as an extension of celestial mechanics has led to the study of orbital resonances. Asteroids are somewhat trapped in their orbits and have formed “families” dependent on what and how they are trapped in an orbital resonance.
Saturn is a giant working lab in the exploration of high order orbital phenomena.
It gets even weirder when they start postulating the migrations of the planets during the formation of the solar system. Some theories suggest that Jupiter was formed near the Sun and migrated outwards to where it is now. A lot of wildly beautiful speculation.
Col Beausabre,
Keep in mind the Yarkovsky Effect:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarkovsky_effect
On the other hand, this may only add to your problems in understanding the unknown perturbations of an asteroid’s orbit.
On the third hand (the gripping hand, for you Niven/Pournelle fans), how much do we need to worry about what happens should Bennu, a mere pile of loose rock, strike the Earth:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OSvtznJYuI (12 minutes, Scott Manley)
Armageddon
https://youtu.be/qk9MK5smzVE
9:30
“With Bruce Willis as your project manager and Michael Bay as the director, of course it’s possible to stop an asteroid hurtling towards earth by using massive explosives and a team of deep-core drillers!”
When I first read Edward’s comment above, instead of Yarkovsky, my pre-coffee brain saw Velikovsky.
It was unsettling.
Wayne, one of my favorite quotes is at/around 1:27 in the clip … “Beggin’ your pardon, sir, but …”
But is this happened today, we’d likely have a greater chance at deflection if we called SpaceX and put incentives in the contract to maximize deflection distance – and assure the prevention of another close approach in the future.