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An up and down Sun, for real this time

Though I am a bit late in covering this story (due to moving, unpacking, Passover, and an unexpected visit to the dentist), NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center on April 9 released its monthly update of the ongoing sunspot cycle of the Sun. The most recent graph is below the fold.

In order to understand the context of this new graph, however, it is necessary to make a correction and clarification.

In my previous update on March 11, I noted how the Sun’s activity, after several months of decline, had leaped upward, repeating the same up-and-down pattern we have seen for the past three years. To quote myself:

Since the Sun began it ramp up to solar maximum back in 2009, the pattern has been consistent, two steps forward, one step back. First there are several months in a row in which the number of sunspots show a steep rise, followed immediately by several months in which the sunspot numbers decline just as steeply, though by not as much. All told, since 2009 we have seen this pattern repeat four times.

February’s numbers have continued that pattern.

wrong and right

Unfortunately, my conclusion above was premature. February’s numbers did not continue that pattern. It turns out that one day after this update, NOAA issued a correction to its monthly graph. Apparently they had mistakenly switched the numbers for January and February, giving the impression that the Sun’s activity had risen in February when in truth it had continued to plunge. On the left is a cropped inset of the pertinent area for both the incorrect and corrected graph, so that everyone can see the error and its significance.

Thus, despite the recent flurry of activity from the Sun that caused many uninformed journalists to write about how we are all going to be fried by the upcoming solar maximum, in February the Sun’s activity actually declined significantly. In fact, the sunspot activity in February 2012 was the lowest it had been in more than a year, not what you would expect as the Sun ramps up to solar maximum. Below is the full correct graph for February.

February 2012 corrected sunspot graph

The new graph for April, however, does finally leap upward, so that what I wrote last month, whereby the Sun’s activity follows an up and down pattern as it ramps up to solar maximum, finally came true.

Even so, total activity still remains far below predicted levels.

March 2012 sunspot graph

Meanwhile, the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have also revised their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum, increasing slightly the predicted sunspot number at maximum from 59 to 61. They still expect maximum to occur in the spring of 2013.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

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