An up and down Sun, for real this time
Though I am a bit late in covering this story (due to moving, unpacking, Passover, and an unexpected visit to the dentist), NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center on April 9 released its monthly update of the ongoing sunspot cycle of the Sun. The most recent graph is below the fold.
In order to understand the context of this new graph, however, it is necessary to make a correction and clarification.
In my previous update on March 11, I noted how the Sun’s activity, after several months of decline, had leaped upward, repeating the same up-and-down pattern we have seen for the past three years. To quote myself:
Since the Sun began it ramp up to solar maximum back in 2009, the pattern has been consistent, two steps forward, one step back. First there are several months in a row in which the number of sunspots show a steep rise, followed immediately by several months in which the sunspot numbers decline just as steeply, though by not as much. All told, since 2009 we have seen this pattern repeat four times.
February’s numbers have continued that pattern.
Unfortunately, my conclusion above was premature. February’s numbers did not continue that pattern. It turns out that one day after this update, NOAA issued a correction to its monthly graph. Apparently they had mistakenly switched the numbers for January and February, giving the impression that the Sun’s activity had risen in February when in truth it had continued to plunge. On the left is a cropped inset of the pertinent area for both the incorrect and corrected graph, so that everyone can see the error and its significance.
Thus, despite the recent flurry of activity from the Sun that caused many uninformed journalists to write about how we are all going to be fried by the upcoming solar maximum, in February the Sun’s activity actually declined significantly. In fact, the sunspot activity in February 2012 was the lowest it had been in more than a year, not what you would expect as the Sun ramps up to solar maximum. Below is the full correct graph for February.
The new graph for April, however, does finally leap upward, so that what I wrote last month, whereby the Sun’s activity follows an up and down pattern as it ramps up to solar maximum, finally came true.
Even so, total activity still remains far below predicted levels.
Meanwhile, the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have also revised their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum, increasing slightly the predicted sunspot number at maximum from 59 to 61. They still expect maximum to occur in the spring of 2013.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Readers: the rules for commenting!
No registration is required. I welcome all opinions, even those that strongly criticize my commentary.
However, name-calling and obscenities will not be tolerated. First time offenders who are new to the site will be warned. Second time offenders or first time offenders who have been here awhile will be suspended for a week. After that, I will ban you. Period.
Note also that first time commenters as well as any comment with more than one link will be placed in moderation for my approval. Be patient, I will get to it.