An up and down Sun, for real this time
Though I am a bit late in covering this story (due to moving, unpacking, Passover, and an unexpected visit to the dentist), NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center on April 9 released its monthly update of the ongoing sunspot cycle of the Sun. The most recent graph is below the fold.
In order to understand the context of this new graph, however, it is necessary to make a correction and clarification.
In my previous update on March 11, I noted how the Sun’s activity, after several months of decline, had leaped upward, repeating the same up-and-down pattern we have seen for the past three years. To quote myself:
Since the Sun began it ramp up to solar maximum back in 2009, the pattern has been consistent, two steps forward, one step back. First there are several months in a row in which the number of sunspots show a steep rise, followed immediately by several months in which the sunspot numbers decline just as steeply, though by not as much. All told, since 2009 we have seen this pattern repeat four times.
February’s numbers have continued that pattern.
Unfortunately, my conclusion above was premature. February’s numbers did not continue that pattern. It turns out that one day after this update, NOAA issued a correction to its monthly graph. Apparently they had mistakenly switched the numbers for January and February, giving the impression that the Sun’s activity had risen in February when in truth it had continued to plunge. On the left is a cropped inset of the pertinent area for both the incorrect and corrected graph, so that everyone can see the error and its significance.
Thus, despite the recent flurry of activity from the Sun that caused many uninformed journalists to write about how we are all going to be fried by the upcoming solar maximum, in February the Sun’s activity actually declined significantly. In fact, the sunspot activity in February 2012 was the lowest it had been in more than a year, not what you would expect as the Sun ramps up to solar maximum. Below is the full correct graph for February.
The new graph for April, however, does finally leap upward, so that what I wrote last month, whereby the Sun’s activity follows an up and down pattern as it ramps up to solar maximum, finally came true.
Even so, total activity still remains far below predicted levels.
Meanwhile, the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have also revised their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum, increasing slightly the predicted sunspot number at maximum from 59 to 61. They still expect maximum to occur in the spring of 2013.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Readers: the rules for commenting!
No registration is required. I welcome all opinions, even those that strongly criticize my commentary.
However, name-calling and obscenities will not be tolerated. First time offenders who are new to the site will be warned. Second time offenders or first time offenders who have been here awhile will be suspended for a week. After that, I will ban you. Period.
Note also that first time commenters as well as any comment with more than one link will be placed in moderation for my approval. Be patient, I will get to it.