The devastating epidemic that simply wasn’t devastating
It is now more than a year since the arrival of the coronavirus in the United States and the panicky wave of fear it brought to our governments and many of our citizens, shutting down whole states, bankrupting millions of businesses, and shuttering schools for practically a whole year. In the process our governments have demanded we change how we live in fundamental ways, from no longer gathering together in any social setting to wearing masks wherever we go, inside or out.
Was that reaction correct? Readers of my website know that I never believed it rational, and that it was an entirely out-of-proportion response to what was really nothing more than a new variation of the flu.
Well, we now have some data that reveals the actual scale of the COVID-19 epidemic, as shown by the CDC graph below:
Click for CDC source page.
The yellow curve indicates the upper bound threshold for expected deaths. Any week that exceeds that threshold is considered to be a week whereby more people died than would normally be expected.
The graph reveals many things, the most of significant of which is that this epidemic was simply not devastating and that all the harsh lockdowns, mask mandates, and panic were simply unnecessary. To explain that conclusion will require some analysis, as follows.
The most obvious take-away from this graph is that the 2020 and 2021 waves of COVID-19 definitely caused more deaths than previous flu seasons. The 2018 flu season had been considered a bad one, as shown by the graph. Both COVD-19 waves exceeded it. These final numbers are also higher than I and others had expected or predicted based on earlier data. However, a wider and deeper view of these numbers shows that the earlier more optimistic conclusions were still largely correct.
First, we must remember that the numbers of deaths from the flu practically vanished during this epidemic, which seems unlikely. More likely, based on the financial benefits awarded to doctors and hospitals for assigning any undetermined respiratory illness to COVID-19 and not the flu, most flu deaths were instead labeled COVID. Thus it is not surprising that during the last two years the numbers were high, as they probably included deaths from both COVID and the flu. We were hit with a double whammy these past two years.
Second, the data continues to show that the large majority of these deaths occurred among the elderly sick. If you go to the source webpage and change the settings to show you deaths by age, it shows that in the past 40 weeks almost all deaths were for those over 45 years of age, with more than 75% of those deaths older than 65 years of age. Previous studies have found that of the aged who were dying most did so because of a combination of several chronic illnesses and COVID. In other words, these individuals were poised for death because of age and their overall very bad health, and the addition of a respiratory infection, such as COVID or the flu, was enough to push them over the edge.
Nor is this unusual. Sadly it is the norm, and has always been so. Old sick people do not have the resources to fight off a sudden respiratory illness that is relatively harmless to the rest of the population. While almost everyone else recovers, the disease kills them.
Fourth, and most important, the number of excess deaths demonstrate that the last two flu/COVID seasons, while bad, were not terribly different than the many other bad flu seasons we have weathered in the past without blinking an eye.
To illustrate, take the numbers for the week ending January 2, 2021, the worst week on record. According to past data, the CDC expected there to be 59413 deaths that week, with an upper bound of 61,248. Instead, 83,283 people died (these are not deaths from just COVID, but from all causes). Whether or not we had an epidemic, it is perfectly normal for about 60,000 people to have died that first week in January, because it is a basic fact of life that it ends at some point.
Nonetheless, in that week there were about 29% more deaths than would normally be expected during a normal flu season. O my God! We are all gonna die!
NOT. When compared to the entire population, this increase is a pinprick. There are presently about 330 million people alive in the U.S. Eighty-three thousands deaths equals a death rate of 0.00025, which means 99.975% of the population survived during that first week of January. Even more revealing, had the number of deaths been what the CDC expected, about 60,000, then 99.982% of the population would have survived instead, a difference of .007%, a percentage difference so small that scientists would normal consider it what they call an insignificant number.
More important, that difference means that the COVID-19 epidemic for the past year was not something that warranted a panic. It was simply nothing more than a variation of the flu, though clearly more deadly to the elderly sick. Had we treated it like the flu, we would have acted to first and foremost protect that elderly sick population, while letting everyone else go about their lives normally.
Had we done that — as we have done traditionally since the Enlightenment — the virus would have quickly spread through the general population, killing almost no one while rapidly running its course so that it had less chance to reach that protected elderly sick and vulnerable population.
Edvard Munch’s Scream, a perfect representation of today’s culture.
Instead, Democratic Party governors in states like New York, Michigan, Washington, and Pennsylvania decided — in their panicked belief that the virus was about to kill millions based on computer models that were inherently flawed and untrustworthy — that they couldn’t favor this vulnerable population with any protection. To make sure they had plenty of emergency room beds for the hoards of sick COVID patients from the general population (hordes that never materialized), they required nursing homes to take in COVID patients, thus exposing that most vulnerable population and thus killing tens of thousands for absolutely no reason.
COVID-19 was not a pandemic, it was simply a somewhat worse flu season that caused a sad but entirely intolerable number of additional deaths among the older population because of fear and panic the strong and healthy decided to let them die.
Had we responded rationally and with courage, we might not have even had the number of the excess deaths now documented. Those elderly sick in New York, Michigan, Washington, and Pennsylvania might still be alive, and the non-devastation from COVID-19 might have been even less noteworthy.
But we did panic, and the result was not only many additional unnecessary deaths, but a terrible transformation of our society from one that was an exuberant celebration of freedom to a culture that now crouches in fear from the thunder gods.
The children who lived through the horror of masks and Zoom and isolation in the past year will not be the kind of adults who will build a nation of the free and brave. They will live in fear, and will impose that fear on all around them.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
COVID-19 was not a pandemic…
So are you denying that there’s a pandemic?
I’m pretty sure no one thinks that there IS a pandemic. Both the CDC and WHO backed that off months ago.
The problem with determining whether or not there WAS a pandemic is definitional. “pandemic” – much like “tort” – is a term-of-art. It does not mean what most people think it means.
For example, there was an Ebola pandemic, but not many people in the United States even noticed. For the average person on the street, “pandemic” means we’re all going to die. For medical professionals, it means something else entirely – I believe it has something to do with infection rates and virulence coefficients, but I’m the average person on the street.
For useful intents and purposes, the word can mostly be ignored.
As popularized by Mark Twain:
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Astute, well thought out and concise.
merriamwebster.com says:
pandemic (adjective)
pan·dem·ic | \ pan-ˈde-mik \
1: occurring over a wide geographic area (such as multiple countries or continents) and typically affecting a significant proportion of the population
significant (adjective)
sig·nif·i·cant | \ sig-ˈni-fi-kənt \
1: having meaning
especially : SUGGESTIVE
a significant glance
2a: having or likely to have influence or effect : IMPORTANT
a significant piece of legislation
also : of a noticeably or measurably large amount
a significant number of layoffs
By these criteria there are multiple pandemics every year, supposing one considers the various strains of influenza and the common cold (another corona virus), and Covid definitely fits this.
You could change Bob’s statement to:
COVID-19 was not a _devastating_ pandemic…
to reflect what was likely his intent.
Trent Castanaveras: Until around 2000 the word “pandemic” did not exist, or if it did it was used by almost no one. When a disease spread across the globe it was always referred to as an epidemic.
It appeared to me that “pandemic” was a made up crisis word created by politicians and academia to up the fear level when an epidemic occurred.
Thus, I refuse to use it. Epidemic works just fine, as it always did.
Mr. Z: “Until around 2000 the word “pandemic” did not exist, or if it did it was used by almost no one.”
That’s fair. Although it’s been around for a bit more than a century, it’s use has been in niche applications. I first saw it in the documentary The Hot Zone a couple decades ago.
An interesting thought: Since the word has been popularized by the entertainment industry, with all the reveling in various dystopian futures, it’s impact was far greater to the common man. The Stand, Outbreak, Utopia, The Crazies, etc. ad nauseum- the list goes on for pages. It’s almost like we’ve been being primed.
Small edit in first paragraph under Scream: “hordes”
Andi: Thank you as always. Fixed.
the percent numbers have two extra 9’s.
.00025 death rate is .025%
survival rate is .99975 or 99.975%
numbers matter: You are correct. I forgot to move the decimal when switching to percents. Thank you.
“Quite an experience to live in fear, isn’t it? That’s what it is to be a slave.”
Blade Runner 1982
https://youtu.be/0zXajYDnprQ
0:10
Nine Inch Nails –
” Head Like A Hole ” (1990)
https://youtu.be/ao-Sahfy7Hg
4:31
“Pandemic” means Andromeda Strain to me.
As a WuFlu recipient, here’s my two cents.
> WuFlu is real, but not the existential threat to society that the purveyors of panic-demic made it out to be. We did not have to wound our society the ways we have … not even for me. Doing so has set a perilous precedent for the next crisis and the heroic-in-their-own-mind Karens that will rise to meet it.
> But to many of the purveyors of panic-demic, this was a crisis not to waste. One of their (myriad) beefs with President Trump was that he didn’t go all-in with them … but instead respected federalism more than any other President in my lifetime, perhaps even including Reagan. That is another precedent that I hope takes root for future Presidents – and reflected in the resolve of state leaders to not just let the Federal piper call the tune.
> All this being said …. as I’ve said before, if you want to tie down an adversary so that you can impose your will on the world, WuFlu is well-suited for that objective … “wounded” casualties place a heavy logistical and psychological burden on an adversary that is moral enough to seek their care and comfort. Add to that the longer-lasting presence, and the plausible deniability of not being an obvious weapon, and if this was designed, the designer qualifies for the title Patton conferred upon Rommel in the movie.
Which thinking about it, tells me that this bug likely did escape inadvertently from the lab … as opposed to being intentionally released a few more years down the road, when China might have its Peking ducks in a row to “reclaim” Taiwan.
Many politicians have slipped, and told the truth. This “pandemic ” was an opportunity for a new “equitable ” and “sustainable ” economic reset. A ” case ” was historically a person with symptoms confirmed by a test, now it is just a positive test. We were preached to for years about the difference between HIV positive and actually having AIDS, according to the new rules they are the same. Similarly the definition of pandemic was changed to include any infectious agent, dangerous or not. I have difficulty believing that it is a coincidence that the director of WHO at the most important period of it’s existence is a Marxist philosopher and has no public health, medical or infectious disease expertise. This was planned, and launched at the first opportunity.
Covid and the “Great reset”? There are no coincidences here IMO.
And where will Covid actually be devastating? Apparently India, 300,000 new cases a day and people dying in the streets because of lack of hospital capacity. (And that is probably a low number).
And surprisingly what is a common denominator in India as counter intuitive as it sounds given it is a sun drenched country?
80 to 90 percent of the population is extremely deficient in Vitamin D due to there almost exclusively vegetarian diet.
Of course there were fewer deaths from the flu because people were masks and quarantined
Any idiot should have realized that
This virus killed 10x as many as the flu
And also 3 times more were severely injured many permanently
Craig Austin–
I’m glad you brought up the AIDs vs. HIV thing.
–>Just guess who was ‘in charge’ of that whole affair –>Fauci.
That little weasel has been grifting the taxpayers for almost as long as I’ve been alive.
Jeff-
excellent example!
(original 1971)
John
If the flu was stalled by lockdowns an unable to spread, we wouldn’t have had any ailments, including COVID.
I am currently laboring with my 6 th cold since last June. Corona series includes the common cold.
The point being, the lockdowns aren’t stopping the spread, only causing excess mortalities.
Regardless, the Canadian military revealed they brought COVID to North America in October 2019 while returning from the 2019 Military World Games, held in WUHAN. They RCMP, without warrant, banged on the journalist’s door who revealed the letter sent from the Canadian Military’s chief surgeon to the Canadian Prime Minister. The letter was ignored by the Canadian government and kept from the media until the surgeon general in frustration exposed the scandal by sending it to media who would listen.
As such, COVID, the flu, everything else was dispersing worldwide, from October 2019 to March 2020, WITH NO CONTROLS. We’re likely very close to herd immunity anyway, a goal we would want to achieve.
Mr. Zimmerman argues that “these people were poised for death.” But if that was the case we would see the number of deaths drop below the number of expected deaths as a result of those deaths being brought forward. The drop-in deaths in the graph he shows is a result of the time it requires to collect data. So as of to date I would argue that most of the lives lost to the virus were shortened by more than a year, by how much more than a year we will learn in the future.
Dave O.
Internationally we’ve seen the flu almost completely disappear from many countries, in Australia and New Zealand flu cases are down by more than 99%, the missing flu cases are not covid cases because in those countries the number of covid cases is very low. The reason flu cases has dropped more spectacularly than covid cases as a result of lockdowns and other measures is because covid is far more contagious than the flu. Colds are also more contagious then the flu, so also have not been restricted to the same extent
As the flu returns, will the powers that be demand lock downs, and mask usage for that?
People fell for it so easily this time.
In the following essay, the graph titled “CDC US: Weekly All Deaths:: Dotted = All Cause — COVID” shows a bold line that is all deaths. The dotted line shows the deaths with those attributed to Wuhan flu subtracted.*
https://wmbriggs.com/post/35380/
The large drop off at the end of the bold green line (2021 reporting) is due to reporting delays, late reporting to the CDC. Virtually all reporting is complete in eight weeks, so the green lines are accurate counts to at least week 9 of 2021. We can see that the 2020 excess deaths in the US exceed those attributed to Wuhan flu, and the remaining excess are the deaths that were caused only due to the reaction to the Wuhan flu.
Since we know that there were many Wuhan flu deaths that were also caused by the reaction, it is clear that we should never react like this ever again. It was like killing the cats during the Bubonic Plague.
It is clear that the number of deaths attributed to Wuhan flu is too high. There is a large financial incentive to report deaths as being from, with, suspected, or assumed related to Wuhan flu, and some reported deaths, such as auto accident deaths, were so blatantly false that they were caught. What we will never know is how many falsely “with,” “suspected,” or “assumed” attributed deaths were not blatant enough to be caught, such as people who had died due to the flu or pneumonia.
Notice the lack of flu cases in the graph titled “WHO Flu: Positive Specimens From GISRS: 2009 — 2020” The flu has virtually disappeared for the past year. Has it gone the way of smallpox or are these deaths being reported as Wuhan flu deaths?
John wrote: “Of course there were fewer deaths from the flu because people were masks and quarantined
Any idiot should have realized that”
If masks and quarantines stopped the flu, then why didn’t they stop the Wuhan flu, too? Shouldn’t any idiot realize that both would be stopped if either were stopped by these measures?
Jeff Wright wrote “‘Pandemic’ means Andromeda Strain to me.”
That was the potential, but in the story it only killed off most of one small town and a pilot who flew overhead.
* There is a light red line that branches off from the bold red line. The CDC was giving two different numbers for total weekly deaths, but they stopped presenting the lower number, last summer. Dr. Briggs keeps that lower line in his reporting.
When I was a kid in the late 70’s, my dad, a Ph.D. microbiologist, explained to me the distinction between a pandemic and an epidemic, the difference being ‘widespread” (pan-) and ‘concentrated in limited area/s’ (epi-). Not being well verse in ancient languages I can’t tell you if the prefixes are Latin or Greek. Nonetheless, at least to scientists, the terms have been in use for a while.
You once received more push back on your Covid articles. I’m thinking those commenters have given up on you.
Greg Cochran, a conservative who happens also to be an expert in infectious disease, wrote on March 9, 2020 that we should not flatten the curve, we should “nuke the curve.” He was correct. Had we done this 400,000 lives would have been saved and the economy would have suffered fewer losses in the long run. But, this country is not run by decent, intelligent people. Its ruling class does not care about those in its charge. It cares exclusively about fortifying its power and control. And its expert class is little better than its political leaders, probably because they are dependent on the patronage of such.
I despise this attitude of some of the general public: ” Its ruling class does not care about those in its charge. ”
And many Americans unfortunately see things in similar paternalistic terms. Wrong, Bad, Uninformed, Misinformed.
“It cares exclusively about fortifying its power and control. “. Yes, I call that “Strategy Over Morality”. And in understanding that and plainly seeing that “those in its charge” need to change their perspective and wield their real power at the voting booth in a wiser and more ruthless and informed manner.
On another subject:
The other day one of my millennial pseudo / convenient “Leftist” SJW lady friends came to see me. And in the conversation, which she was partaking in through her home made cloth mask we hit upon the subject of the virus.
Keeping in mind that she has observed me in my unique situation for more than a year NOT wearing a mask, dealing with many, many, thousands of other human beings every day and Not becoming infected. Her conclusion? “Your just lucky you have not gotten the virus!” (I just smiled and shook my head, and recognized that I was generally a lucky person)
Now let me get this straight: You have worn a mask most every day from the beginning of this virus event, you have generally stayed in your house away from most other people, you have stayed home most of the year from your job, AND both you and your partner both got the virus. Thankfully you both survived it and came out the other end just fine. And you both still wear a mask everywhere even though you now have natural immunity. And you have both also chose to receive the vaccine, and you still choose to wear your mask standing here talking with just me at a proper distance with the doors open and in the free flowing, just like being out doors air, being moved by my fan.
AND, I have not gotten the virus to date by doing what I have determined was the best way to deal with the situation. And “I” am “Just Lucky”?
Like I said, I just smiled and shook my head.
What was “strong” about “Boston Strong”?
Excessively supine acquiescence?
For what period of time was the “Salk Polio Vaccine” made available under the ruse of an “Emergency Use Authorization”?
Important paper on the use of Ivermectin in a prophylactic manner V Covid 19 in a study from India :
85% lower infections out of the 3532 individual healthcare workers that participated in the study within the hospital.
https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-208785/v1/d6ff79a3-d354-4aba-a6b0-4bc123bbd225.pdf
” We estimated the hazard ratio, excluding those who had been diagnosed as COVID-19 positive before the
commencement of the study using the Kaplan-Meier method. The probability of SARS-CoV-2
infection was 85% lower in those taking two-dose ivermectin at the end of 30 days (HR 0.15; 95% CI, 0.11- “
Dr. John Campbell reviewing the study information: https://youtu.be/XYv30g7TKVM
AND, the Social Media overlords do not allow such reviews apparently.
THESE ARE TWO INTERESTING COVID HEADLINES
“Dr. Cole on Covid Jabs: “We’ve Seen More Deaths From This Shot Than All Vaccines in the Last 20 Years Combined”
“Indian Health Ambassador Gets COVID Vaccine Live on TV to Show Everyone How Safe It Is – Dies 2 Days Later”
Both the W.H.O. and Merck are not supportive of the use of Ivermectin in dealing with Covid, even in India where the virus is raging.
The W.H.O. only recommends Ivermectin be tried in clinical trials, and Merck says there is no safety data on Ivermectin even though the drug has been prescribed safely about 4 BILLION times with minimal negative results. The only solution for these international players?
(Keeping in mind that there are always side effects when taking all drugs. I think I remember there were 16 deaths from Ivermectin in all of those almost 4 Billion doses. There are 150 deaths a year and I believe 6000 or so deaths associated with the taking of ………………………………Tylenol.
2013: “Time reported that closer to 500 people die in the U.S. from overdosing on acetaminophen, with another 55,000 to 80,000 ending up in the ER for the same reason”. )
The “vaccines” / read gene therapy are apparently the only way to go according to the W.H.O. and Merck.
And there is clearly information related to the effective use of Ivermectin both as a prophylactic and a treatment for Covid being used in real world situations by real world doctors taking the best care they can of their patients.
Even Dr. Campbell is once again astonished at these what appear to be irresponsible decisions at the minimum by these international players. There is one hell of a lot of a push for only these “vaccines” and it seems a bit to much IMO. Total rejection of rational doctoring and inexpensive solutions during a declared emergency world wide.
https://youtu.be/HFcF2ppAeR4
Is it just me?
There are no conspiracies, and there are no coincidences.
geTaylor:
The Salk Polio Vaccine
“Unconditional Surrender” (1956)
https://youtu.be/G9z2uym00jE
14:33
Of course, like has been observed previously, its all really about the Benjamins:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/merck-scraps-two-treatments-for-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-will-focus-on-antiviral-for-non-hospitalized-patients-2021-04-15
“The companies now plan to test molnupiravir in non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients in a Phase 3 trial, with plans to file for emergency authorization in the second half of the year. They are also planning to see if the experimental therapy works for post-exposure prophylaxis. ”
Coincidently, Merck is also the company that developed and produces Ivermectin. But Merck does not support Ivermectin being looked at for Covid, they appear despite the growing evidence of the efficacy of Ivermectin to not want it promoted. The reasons why are apparent to me.
And I have no problem with corporations doing what they do, develop new products and sell them to make a profit. But like everything else there are lines.
When a corporation or a government agency for that matter promote how moral they are, how “Woke” they are, and they talk about justice for all. But then “manage” a message about what clearly appears to be an effective drug to deal with a current and growing in some places pandemic and down play it because they have a new offering soon to arrive on the scene and they do not want to dilute their profit potential, that is fraud at the minimum and possibly criminal at the max?
And the government agencies that lord over these therapies are clearly at some level culpable and in cahoots here. The companies influence politics and the politics serves their masters.
Its always about the Benjamins, and the Benjamins buy power. So therefore, its always about power.
Cotour–
(full disclosure– my daughter & son-in-law, both work for Big Pharma, -but not Merck specifically)
Ivermectin has been off-patent since like’ 1996 or so. Without patent protection, Merck will not spend the money & time required to get it re-approved specifically for the wuhan-virus.
That drug you mentioned they are going with– they already spend ‘like 1 billion acquiring & developing it into & through Phase 1 & Phase 2 trials. And under the current (emergency use loop-hole) environment, they’ll get it through Phase 3 relatively quickly.
[2015 Stats point to “an average of 2.3 billion dollars +9 years” to get a drug approved by FDA]
The huge problem with the pharmaceutical-industry?
— The end-user, isn’t really the customer. Your Doctor decides what drugs you get, you bring the Rx to the Pharmacy, but you are not the customer. Your insurance-provider, is the customer.
(There does exist a mythical “average wholesale price” for pharmaceutical’s, but much like airline tickets, nobody is paying the identical price on any given flight.)
Thanks Wayne:
I recognize all that you identify, but where Merck and the CDC and the WHO go off the rails and into that dark place is when they actively undermine Ivermectin and any potential off label use of it even though real world doctors are saving lives with it. And that is clearly what the evidence demonstrates.
Develop your new drug, but when you actively work against something especially during what is classified as a health emergency world wide, that is suspect to me and an abuse of power.
These entities are essentially telling people in India or other under served country’s during a world wide heath emergency a percentage of you are going to have to die because your illness does not fit in with our new product phase 111 approval and its release. And any drug that has already been released and is proven effective that is now off patent must be rejected and vilified by the corporate media and the government actors.
In the end we are all just numbers and on our own, and when government says that they have the moral authority to make life and death decisions for the many, that is a subjective false perspective adopted by the Pedestrian Realm, (S.O.M.). Government and corporate entities are bereft of morality, they are but things.
Government, be not in love with it. Its necessary, but its a necessary evil.
Andrew W:
“On Sunday CDC Director Rochelle Walensky finally admitted that “many, many hospitals” were counting COVID deaths to include cases that were not COVID deaths.”
All about the Benjamins.
Bonus: Only about 50 percent of CDC employees have taken “The Vaccine”.
What do CDC employees know about the vaccines and the risk of Covid where they are not running en mass to get the vaccine?
Do as I say, not as I do.
From the Indian health directive:
“vi. Consider Tab Ivermectin (200 mcg/kg once a day, to be taken empty stomach) for 3 to 5 days”
From the COVID Blog:
“There are currently 292 studies, including 219 peer-reviewed studies (as of May 15, 2021) showing that hydroxychloroquine is highly effective for treating both early and late stage COVID patients. It is also effective as a prophylaxis. The drug is very cheap to manufacture.”
The powers that be AND the main stream media talking head manipulators specifically in America insist that everyone take the shot. And they actively down play and actively discredit ANY other clear effective method of dealing with a virus contagion where the death rate is about 2%. And those who do die from the virus have several other contributing conditions.
https://zenodo.org/record/4642956#.YKK66oeSlPZ
“The outcome of this report is the conclusion that the probability of a laboratory origin for CoV-2 is 99.8% with a corresponding probability of a zoonotic origin of 0.2%. This exceeds most academic law school discussions of how to quantify ‘beyond a reasonable doubt,’ the threshold for finding guilt in a criminal case.
The report contains the detailed analysis and quantitative basis for the statistics and conclusion. It should be noted that because of the commutative property of the collected adjustments to the probabilities, the order in which they are used in the overall calculation is immaterial and the same end likelihoods will be reached regardless of the order of input.”
A buddy in Connecticut just sent this to me. Anyone with the proper knowledge and degree might interpret this information for everyone.
https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/DDS/COVID-19_2021/DPH_covidvaccine_ingredients_and_work_2_3_21.pdf
One of the components of the Moderna vaccine is SM-102
SM-102: From: Cayman Chemical: Safety Data Sheet acc. to OSHA HCS: 4/11/21
· Signal word Danger
· Hazard-determining components of labeling: Chloroform
· Hazard statements
H225 Highly flammable liquid and vapor.
H302 Harmful if swallowed.
H310 Fatal in contact with skin.
H315 Causes skin irritation.
H319 Causes serious eye irritation.
H351 Suspected of causing cancer.
H361 Suspected of damaging fertility or the unborn child.
H372 Causes damage to the central nervous system, the kidneys, the liver and the respiratory system
through prolonged or repeated exposure.
H402 Harmful to aquatic life.
H410 Very toxic to aquatic life with long lasting effects
There are apparently two forms of the SM-102, one with Chloroform and one without.
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-339133801807
No, it wasn’t a pandemic, nationally, all the time. The criteria were satisfied for certain periods in certain parts of the country, but not otherwise. Pan = Greek for “all” (everywhere), epi = Greek for “widespread.” I would call it a highly uneven epidemic, serious in some places, moderate in others.
The only consistent policies that did the trick were early and rigorous travel bans (which were resisted and criticized in the US until mid-March 2020) and repeated “snap” lockdowns, strict but short (like in Israel, three times). The problem in the US was that travel bans were not fully put in place until late March (which was at least two months too late) and the consequences were then dealt with, in vain, by long, unnecessary lockdowns that didn’t touch the real danger in care facilities and hospitals. That need didn’t come into focus until mid-summer 2020, which was absurd and almost criminal.
The US also labored under the mistaken leadership of Fauci, a laboratory research scientist, not a public health person, with confusion reigning on masks and an almost total neglect of effective and lower-cost steps to take, like improving ventilation and focusing public health advice on people with comorbidities (obesity, diabetes, etc.) to lose weight, improve diet and blood sugar levels, and so on. Once vaccines were out, there was little done for patients with suppressed or impaired immune systems. (I know several such people, and they were given almost no guidance. It’s not clear that the vaccines will work for them, because their immune systems can’t produce enough antibodies.) Fauci-ism = magical obsession with vaccines as the only thing worth thinking about. Fauci’s history with AIDS in the 1980s and 1990s manifested the same pattern, the same obsession with vaccines and neglect of everything else.
Too many were mesmerized by bad computer models and didn’t pay enough attention to data, early enough.
Cotour.
“On Sunday CDC Director Rochelle Walensky finally admitted that “many, many hospitals” were counting COVID deaths to include cases that were not COVID deaths.”
No, that’s not what she said.
https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/us-cdc-director-didnt-state-that-covid-19-deaths-were-over-counted-her-statements-about-deaths-among-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-were-misinterpreted-jim-hoft-gateway-pundit/
I would only guess after all of this is hashed out probably 10% (?), 20% (?) or so of the deaths will be misreported as being from Covid and are questionable.
But that is speculation. We must wait probably another year or more to really get the “true” numbers. And many will not believe them anyway because of the blatant fraud and corruption that is being revealed in the medical industry, in politics, in the government agencies and in media regarding Covid.
I really trust none of them, and if I incorrectly reported any on the subject then I stand corrected………..for now.
And I remember this from Andrew W: “America will have 2 or was it 3 million deaths from Covid.”
And that projection was as good as anyone else’s at the time suppose.
And wait till it is announced that everyone who had their first dose of the “Vaccine” is commanded that they are on the list for the next, and the next? Its a big stinking pile of corruption, bad decisions and agendas that are not fully recognized at this point in time.
And I remember this from Andrew W: “America will have 2 or was it 3 million deaths from Covid.”
Well, initially when it was clear the US couldn’t put the cat into the bag I thought over 2 million, then with better treatments that estimate went down to 1.4 million. And do you remember the caveat? That that was without the development of a vaccine?
Touch’e:
And then we have the potentials from the solution.
In my experience every solution you adopt in an existing design / situation creates 2 or 3 new problems. And the question remains, is the solution tolerable and does it provide the needed solutions without creating too many negatives?
I hope that the enthusiasm about the “vaccines” are validated and are as advertised and are long term safe. But given what went on, what is going on and what will go on and ultimately be revealed they may not be as clean as hoped.
https://youtu.be/D1QrEn-WbiQ
The entire situation has been poorly handled, and when I say poorly I mean possibly criminally.
I will throw this in just for Southern hemisphere purposes; https://youtu.be/hMafqAwDaQw
All criminal at some level. In a free world that is.
I will throw this in just for Southern hemisphere purposes;
Yes, horrible place Australia, don’t go there, Victoria and Queensland are virtually police states.
(I think we may have had this discussion before).
And Covid statistics are being revised as we write, down:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/california-county-covid-19-death-toll-lowered-by-400-after-counting-method-change_3846874.html?utm_source=newsnoe&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=breaking-2021-06-06-3&mktids=c44fbc8e41046b17bce6909fa95538ba&est=LO013Jw72%2F7cbi%2FK8hj6UQ02wwjfcf%2BWZcT4yNj88xfCs6zMZu0OTk%2BWSCrVgQ%3D%3D
“Tucker Carlson: Why did they lie to us for so long?”
June 3, 2021
https://youtu.be/32V-e7saq60
11:42
Curious-
Ref: “Too many were mesmerized by bad computer models and didn’t pay enough attention to data…”
I’d edit that to say, “some were mesmerized…” The rest of the Usual Suspects? = Power mad psychopaths.
Nine Inch Nails –
“Head Like A Hole ” (1989)
https://youtu.be/ao-Sahfy7Hg
4:31