16 comments

• Cotour

  April 28, 2020 at 11:32 am

  How can Trump help here and garner support? Reverse the formal declaration of a national emergency which as I understand is still in place that overlies this entire situation. It is the legal basis for the usurping of the individuals Rights.

  https://www.cnet.com/news/trump-declares-national-emergency-over-coronavirus-outbreak/

  Remove it and allow each governor to manage their own degree of emergency. But it will probably be a couple of more weeks before the president does that and relinquishes his control.
• Rose

  April 28, 2020 at 2:25 pm

  Cotour, have the Feds used the national emergency to limit the states in any way? Hasn’t the federal approach to shutdowns and safe practices been entirely one of recommendation? Trump has used it to invoke the Defense Production Act, but haven’t the states always had a free hand with regard to shutdown and reopening? I’ve probably missed something, but I’d love to see a list of instances where the federal declaration has led to the usurpation of individuals rights.

  What Trump can do is to work very quietly (so quietly that word of his involvement doesn’t leak, since bipartisan support will be needed — McConnell is enough of a bugbear by himself) behind the scenes to support McConnell’s efforts here: “McConnell Wants Next Bailout Bill to Deal With the ‘Lawsuit Pandemic’ That’s Coming”

  * https://pjmedia.com/trending/mcconnell-wants-next-bailout-bill-to-deal-with-the-lawsuit-pandemic-thats-coming/

  We need safe harbour legislation to encourage businesses to take the risk of reopening.
• Phill O

  April 28, 2020 at 2:58 pm

  The simplest solution was to warn vulnerable people to stay home and pay people who were sick to stay at home. Herd immunity would have occurred sooner and a bunch of old people with health issues (a bug drain on the system) would have been removed.

  Can you imagine the outcry if Trump had of proposed this.

  However, the overreach of the left who think government should solve everything—–
• Cotour

  April 28, 2020 at 3:31 pm

  With a Federally declared national emergency in place that IMO legally overlies everything. And if you were to go against it that would introduce potential legal consequences and the suspension of your insurance as long as the order is in place. If you are in business you do not want to do anything that might suspend or interrupt your insurance so you are captive to the declared order.

  And all of the complaints of the varying degrees of peoples Rights being altered and stepped upon more or less in the 50 states depends on which governor we are talking about and their philosophy related to those Rights and this declared national emergency.

  Trump has gone out of his way to not step too harshly on those Rights, the governor of Michigan however took a very different path, as did the governor of New Jersey who does not see himself as being hampered in any way with the Bill Of Rights or the Constitution.

  This is in real time what it is that you get when you “Buy” and empower an individual at the polls, the consequences of elections.
• commodude

  April 28, 2020 at 3:39 pm

  Cotour,

  where is the constitutional basis for suspension of rights?

  Not bureaucratic or legal, but Constitutional?

  Fredo has trashed the rights of every New Yorker, but the media has spun it as big brother taking care of us.
• Cotour

  April 28, 2020 at 4:05 pm

  We are ‘free”, we are not FREE. No one on the planet is FREE. Everyone lives within what ever societal structure within which they live. As long as there is government there are parameters within which we live.

  There are special situations where your “freedoms” can be adjusted or even stepped on, this virus and this declared national emergency being one of them.. Your freedoms are not absolute.

  The Constitution forms the parameters and framework within which we all exist. The people of Communist China exist within the framework and parameters within which they live. Compare.

  And again, that is why it is so important that people understand who it is that they vote for and empower and give the fiduciary responsibility to make those decisions during those times where Rights can be stepped on. I.E. wars, national emergencies etc. Otherwise we all live a pretty good and relatively “free” and happy life in America.

  This is the difference between the Pedestrian Realm and the Political Realm.
• Rose

  April 28, 2020 at 4:15 pm

  French PM unveils plan to lift lockdown: ‘We must learn to live with the virus’

  * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfbUtJXWUik

  Et c’est la vie dans le nouveau monde.
• Cotour

  April 28, 2020 at 4:35 pm

  And PS: Besides all of the other Rights as of birth identified in the Bill Of Rights, the Second Amendment assures that the people ultimately have the final say who and how their country is run. Even though that they as individuals must surrender and give their proxy to a representative and that representative assumes the fiduciary responsibility and gets to make those decisions that may in fact at times infringe on their Rights.

  The people of America will be armed, and that is unique in the formation of a scheme of governance, and so let it remain unique.

  Fear is a good thing, the Founders knew well what they were up against.
• Cotour

  April 28, 2020 at 5:05 pm

  To my point about insurance and business attempting operating within a federally declared emergency.

  Mitch McConnel: https://youtu.be/aa1eweVnjhs
• James Street

  April 29, 2020 at 8:08 am

  If you’re thinking of going to a freedom rally I would encourage you. There was one in Washington state’s capital of Olympia a couple weeks ago. I didn’t go for fear of violence. Our governor is Jay Inslee, and Antifa is active in Olympia. In the past they’ve beaten up conservatives there. It turns out that 2,500 patriots showed up that day and it was a beautiful peaceful gathering. If you’re organizing this event give people the address of where to park so they can plug it into their GPS.
• Ian C.

  April 29, 2020 at 8:50 am

  Phill O,

  Herd immunity

  Let’s be generous and assume that all infected become immune — but for how long? Currently the speculation is 1–3 years. It takes around 30–75% of the population to be infected once to attain herd immunity, assuming the R0 remains stable (between 1.5–4.0). 30–75% of the American population (330M) is 100M–250M. Of those — because “it’s just a stronger flu” — 1% will die. That’s 1M–2.5M.

  The fatality rate of 1% is an average over all age and risk groups, assuming proper treatment when needed. If we protect (isolate) the vulnerable, it’ll go down. If the health care system is overwhelmed because too many people require treatment at the same time, it’ll go up (to 10%) and we need to add those secondary non-C19 deaths from lack of treatment.

  Now we have to navigate around a fine line: let C19 run through the population fast enough to get 30–75% of the population infected before immunity in the individuals vanishes (1–3 years) vs. the capacity of the health care system (to keep the fatality rate below 1% while allowing treatment of other patients).

  We need the data from the health care system (plus educated guesses about possible capacity enhancements), run it for individual immunity of 1 year and 3 years, that gives us two quantitative scenarios that we can work with.
  But that’s only the public health perspective. Now we need to take into account the economic and demographic-cultural aspects to prototype workable policies. We need to protect the vulnerable, help affected businesses and workers (that might have to close down for a while), someone has to pay for what others will receive. Then those policies need to be understood, accepted and lived by the people and easy to be enforced where necessary. Considering the heterogeneous population of the US, that’s not easy. And all those possible policies are subject to political influences of interest groups.

  Now throw in the other stuff I post here as something one needs to consider. No vaccine and no cure. Infected might keep the virus permanently (reactivated liked herpes). Each new round of infection (permanently) harms organs (heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, etc.) and makes the body susceptible to co-infections. It impacts the old and ill first, but it takes longer for younger people because they start with a stronger immune system, thus nobody is safe. Every week ends with a new bunch of reports and studies that indicate something new about the virus (and it’s usually something horrible). It’s far from being understood.
  We know how to deal with the measles and the seasonal flu. But this has a lot of novelty and uncertainty. It leaves one with trial and error and incremental and hopefully reversible steps. Some (Republicans) focus on the economic and individual liberties side, others (Democrats) on the public health aspects. There are no easy answers.

  Nah, it’s an ungrateful job.
• Max

  April 29, 2020 at 11:56 am

  Phill O said;
  “Can you imagine the outcry if Trump had of proposed this?”

  Good point, every time Trump signs a controversial executive order, a liberal judge stops it with an inJunction before the ink is even dry. Where are all the judges to stop the governors from enacting obviously anti-constitutional orders? Did there judicial powers get shut off when they quit holding court? Does the governor have the power to shut down an entire branch of government saying it’s not essential? Did the emergency executive order illuminate the need for justice in this nation?

  commodude asks;
  Cotour,
  “where is the constitutional basis for suspension of rights?
  Not bureaucratic or legal, but Constitutional?”

  Another good point, an elephant in the room that everyone is ignoring even though it’s beginning to make a mess so big that we are swimming in its feces.
  Where are the activist judges? You know the ones, that are so concerned about our constitutional rights, the illegal aliens, open borders, healthcare for everyone, the rights of everyone except “white male privileged” ???
  Has anyone seen the ACLU ??? They were everywhere when I was growing up, I haven’t heard about them for years…

  Ian C. Said;
  “No vaccine and no cure. Infected might keep the virus permanently (reactivated liked herpes). Each new round of infection (permanently) harms organs (heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, etc.) ”

  I just heard a report, we will be a while waiting for this vaccine. (They dangle it like a carrot in front of our face saying it’ll be available next year, but there’s always another new virus the next year)
  Report states that there has never been an effective vaccine against any of the corona style viruses even though we’ve been aware of them for a century. There are many viruses for which modern medicine cannot produce a vaccine, like aids, humans do not produce antibodies against some viruses.
  The best way to remain alive with a foreign active element in your bloodstream whether that be a virus, a tick bite, or someone else’s kidney or heart is to give that person immunity suppression drugs so their body can live with the infection/foreign body for the rest of their life. (as they do with aids)
  My daughter received a flu shot that had undigested chicken protein that lodged in her kidneys, her body rejected her kidneys nearly needing a kidney transplant. It’s called IGA nephropathy. She lived on anti-rejection drugs for 17 years and is finally able to go off her medication.
  To prevent children with strong immune system’s from becoming autistic after immunization shots (from high fevers, encephalitis? while their brains are still forming) immunity suppression drugs, like AZT, are very effective to suppress the auto immune system from rejecting tissues invaded by the dead viruses that find the receptor sites that causes their body to attack their developing brain. (Think of a zombie (dead) virus or pathogen with the micro covering like a suit of armor to prevent decomposition before the body produces antibodies)

  As a sidenote, I asked my niece who is a pharmacist near the reservation and speaks Navajo, about the high infection rates. She said that as a condition for a living on the reservation, immunization shots are strongly recommended… “Somethings wrong, everyone is sick.”
• Ian C.

  April 29, 2020 at 2:32 pm

  Max,

  is to give that person immunity suppression drugs

  Yeah, that seems to be the way. I heard also talks about antiretroviral drugs (for phases when the virus isn’t active?).

  In another posting you wrote, “immune suppressant drugs, which is counterintuitive, are extremely effective with these patients just as it’s effective with AIDS patients.”

  I’ve read multiple times that elements of HIV were found in the virus’ signature. The immune suppression makes also sense, considering that (as of now) many or even most C19 deaths seem to come from heart attacks as a result of the immune system’s overreaction. (Don’t quote me on this though.)

  In the worst case we might stay with immunosuppressive and antiretroviral drugs for good. But I’m habitually optimistic and there might be ways out. Perhaps CRISPR and similar will come to the rescue.

  Terrible story with your daughter. The human body really is a frighteningly complicated thing.
• Edward

  April 29, 2020 at 10:35 pm

  Ian C.,
  You wrote: “1% will die. That’s 1M–2.5M.”

  If only you had read Phill’s proposal. Instead, you assumed. Meanwhile, we are not gaining herd immunity but are only slowing the spread to the entire population, including the most vulnerable, and even sending COVID ailing people into nursing homes in New York.

  The lockdown solution is exactly the same as the do-nothing solution, only in slow motion and with much, much more time for the disease to enter and wipe out nursing home populations and elderly populations in general.

  “If the health care system is overwhelmed because too many people require treatment at the same time”

  We have already seen that the lockdown is far greater reaction than is needed to prevent the health care system from becoming overwhelmed, even to the point that healthcare workers are furloughed because early detection for other health problems are being prevented. This overreaction looks to already be resulting in unnecessary deaths of people who otherwise would have received timely treatments. Mission creep is only exasperating this unintended consequence.

  Evan at the time that we were closing schools, we knew that children were the least affected. Letting them get infected en masse would go a long way toward herd immunity. The parents of school-aged children tend to be younger than 50 years of age, also a low vulnerability group, also known at the time, so the herd immunity could have been quickly achieved, or mostly achieved, with very low casualties. That was Phill O’s proposal.

  This could have been achieved without lockdown and without closing businesses and putting them out of business. Instead, we are now being warned that this fall will make this spring look tame. The only novelty to this disease is its target, but we are doing to everyone what should only be done to the disease’s target population. It is all a huge cluster bleep, but few people are trying to un-bleep this cluster. The answer was — and still is — easy. However, it is rejected by those who fell for the lockdown’s mission creep.

  Lockdown has turned out to be worse than worse than useless.
• Ian C.

  April 29, 2020 at 11:58 pm

  Edward,

  Instead, you assumed.

  I just sketched out the consequences of getting to herd immunity and the uncertainties and difficult decisions one has to manage.

  lockdown solution

  I’m not advocating (prolonged) lockdown. In other BtB threads I recommend to learn from countries (like Taiwan or South Korea) that were able to keep most of their economy and public life alive. With inconveniences, but life’s going on. Western countries lacked the preparedness and culture to follow pandemic regulations, so a lockdown and a shutdown of the economy was the first reaction. In order to break free from that, we should see what we can adapt to Western circumstances.

  Wearing masks would be a rather easy and quick way to get most of our lives and businesses back to “normal.” But that only makes sense when enough people wear them, because the main effect (of simple face masks) is mutual protection. Here, again, we have the conflict between making it required to wear one and people already drawing a red line.

  healthcare workers are furloughed

  It’s to be expected to see the system oscillating. In the beginning those were very rough actions applied to a rather sensitive system. In other places I see the hospital system carefully starting to return to normal operation now that the dynamics of the pandemic are better understood. That allows for more fine-tuned responses.

  we knew that children were the least affected

  There was (and still is) enough uncertainty involved about them being spreaders and long-term effects on them. Reports were coming in that made definite decisions difficult. The debate is still going on. It’s not my battle. I’m just pointing out the continuing difficulties for finding the best approaches. I can’t blame people for being cautious when confronted with a disease with still unknown characteristics.

  disease’s target population

  The old and the ill were the first. It might be that it just takes longer with the younger and healthier. We’re only three months into this, we still don’t know enough. But whatever it is, we could learn from those prepared countries and return to “normal” rather soonish. We could have most of our lives and businesses back and have enough time to learn more about the disease.
• Edward

  April 30, 2020 at 9:25 pm

  Ian C.,
  You wrote: “I just sketched out the consequences of getting to herd immunity and the uncertainties and difficult decisions one has to manage.”

  How is that not an assumption? In fact, your unstated assumptions seem to be so many and so broad that your analyses seem completely worthless.