NASA approves Dream Chaser design
Capitalism in space? Sierra Nevada has, after several years of work, obtained NASA’s approval of the design of its Dream Chaser mini-shuttle, and will now begin construction.
I put a question mark in the header above because I am no longer sure Sierra Nevada is building a privately designed and privately owned spacecraft for the launch market. It seems that they have been captured entirely by NASA, and will instead be building the spacecraft NASA wants, which might raise costs enough to make this vehicle unaffordable for other customers.
The situation is understandable. Sierra Nevada does not have the independent capital that gives SpaceX its independence. It needs NASA to get this ship built, and thus will do whatever NASA demands. I just worry that NASA, unconcerned about cost (as is every agency in the federal government today), will spoil Dream Chaser’s viability in the commercial market.
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Capitalism in space? Sierra Nevada has, after several years of work, obtained NASA’s approval of the design of its Dream Chaser mini-shuttle, and will now begin construction.
I put a question mark in the header above because I am no longer sure Sierra Nevada is building a privately designed and privately owned spacecraft for the launch market. It seems that they have been captured entirely by NASA, and will instead be building the spacecraft NASA wants, which might raise costs enough to make this vehicle unaffordable for other customers.
The situation is understandable. Sierra Nevada does not have the independent capital that gives SpaceX its independence. It needs NASA to get this ship built, and thus will do whatever NASA demands. I just worry that NASA, unconcerned about cost (as is every agency in the federal government today), will spoil Dream Chaser’s viability in the commercial market.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Assuming this is getting priced upwards, there might still be a market for state actors, or scientific institutions heavily subsidized by state actors.
Let us say a Dream Chaser Flight will cost a customer $120 million, launch vehicle included (I have no idea what SN plans to price it out at for non-NASA customers). The ESA or the UAE might not be able to afford the billions it would cost to build and operate their own crew vehicles, but might well find $120 million to put up a few of their astronauts and some experiments for several days something they could actually afford – and want to do. Especially if they don’t have to hassle with NASA.
Of course, Dream Chaser is only a cargo vehicle at present, but it had all of its initial development as a crew vehicle, and may yet get a NASA contract for that in the next Commercial Crew contract round.
Perhaps we will get a better idea of the market if and when SpaceX actually lands a non-NASA client for Dragon. They’re really pursuing BFR now, but I can’t think they won’t answer the phone if a serious offer for Dragon comes from a well-heeled client.
Part of the beauty of Dream Chaser is that it provides a second vehicle that can return bulk cargo from space. I prefer the design for controlled landing on runways over the capsule under parachutes. It will be interesting to see how well Dream Chaser fares, after the disappointment of the Space Shuttle.
Richard M wrote: “Perhaps we will get a better idea of the market if and when SpaceX actually lands a non-NASA client for Dragon.”
A non-NASA client for crewed Dragon (or cargo Dragon, for that matter) probably won’t happen until Bigelow or one of the other aspiring commercial space station companies gets something into space. This should happen in the next two or three years, beginning the creation of a much larger market for manned space.