Sunspot update: in October solar activity increased after September’s crash
Time for this month’s sunspot update. As I have done every month since I started this website in 2010, I am posting NOAA’s most recent update of its monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, adding some additional details to provide context.
In October, following a crash in activity in September, the Sun showed a slight increase the number of sunspots. The increase did not match the drop from the month before, but it brought the activity back up to the level seen during the summer.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The Sun continues to confound the experts. Only two weeks ago the experts at NOAA announced that we are now in solar maximum, though the actual peak won’t be known until activity starts to decline.
The activity in October suggests that if this new prediction is correct, the maximum will be a weak one, though far stronger than predicted by NOAA’s panel (as shown by the red curve). It would be a mistake however to accept this conclusion. The maximum was originally not supposed to occur until early 2025. Instead, it arrived much earlier than expected. And there is still plenty of time for sunspot activity to go up or down significantly from the present level before the Sun calms down and begins the ramp down to solar minimum.
Based on the activity so far this maximum, it is completely impossible to predict what will happen. We could see activity jump up far beyond the high level seen two months ago, or decline to match the prediction curve. Or it could continue to fluctuate between the two.
There is one prediction I can make with utter confidence: The Sun will surprise us, and do things no one predicts.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Time for this month’s sunspot update. As I have done every month since I started this website in 2010, I am posting NOAA’s most recent update of its monthly graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, adding some additional details to provide context.
In October, following a crash in activity in September, the Sun showed a slight increase the number of sunspots. The increase did not match the drop from the month before, but it brought the activity back up to the level seen during the summer.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The Sun continues to confound the experts. Only two weeks ago the experts at NOAA announced that we are now in solar maximum, though the actual peak won’t be known until activity starts to decline.
The activity in October suggests that if this new prediction is correct, the maximum will be a weak one, though far stronger than predicted by NOAA’s panel (as shown by the red curve). It would be a mistake however to accept this conclusion. The maximum was originally not supposed to occur until early 2025. Instead, it arrived much earlier than expected. And there is still plenty of time for sunspot activity to go up or down significantly from the present level before the Sun calms down and begins the ramp down to solar minimum.
Based on the activity so far this maximum, it is completely impossible to predict what will happen. We could see activity jump up far beyond the high level seen two months ago, or decline to match the prediction curve. Or it could continue to fluctuate between the two.
There is one prediction I can make with utter confidence: The Sun will surprise us, and do things no one predicts.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Sunspots October 1-31, 2024
https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=217475