ULA concedes GPS competition to SpaceX
The competition cools down: ULA has decided against bidding on a military GPS launch contract, leaving the field clear for SpaceX.
ULA, which for the past decade has launched nearly every U.S. national security satellite, said Nov. 16 it did not submit a bid to launch a GPS 3 satellite for the Air Force in 2018 in part because it does not expect to have an Atlas 5 rocket available for the mission. ULA has been pushing for relief from legislation Congress passed roughly a year ago requiring the Air Force to phase out its use of the Russian-made RD-180 engine that powers ULA’s workhorse Atlas 5 rocket.
This decision might be a lobbying effort by ULA to force Congress to give them additional waivers on using the Atlas 5 engine. Or it could be that they realize that they wouldn’t be able to match SpaceX’s price, and decided it was pointless wasting time and money putting together a bid. Either way, the decision suggests that ULA is definitely challenged in its competition with SpaceX, and until it gets a new lower cost rocket that is not dependent on Russian engines, its ability to compete in the launch market will be seriously hampered.
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The competition cools down: ULA has decided against bidding on a military GPS launch contract, leaving the field clear for SpaceX.
ULA, which for the past decade has launched nearly every U.S. national security satellite, said Nov. 16 it did not submit a bid to launch a GPS 3 satellite for the Air Force in 2018 in part because it does not expect to have an Atlas 5 rocket available for the mission. ULA has been pushing for relief from legislation Congress passed roughly a year ago requiring the Air Force to phase out its use of the Russian-made RD-180 engine that powers ULA’s workhorse Atlas 5 rocket.
This decision might be a lobbying effort by ULA to force Congress to give them additional waivers on using the Atlas 5 engine. Or it could be that they realize that they wouldn’t be able to match SpaceX’s price, and decided it was pointless wasting time and money putting together a bid. Either way, the decision suggests that ULA is definitely challenged in its competition with SpaceX, and until it gets a new lower cost rocket that is not dependent on Russian engines, its ability to compete in the launch market will be seriously hampered.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
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Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
The clear perception that this day was coming to ULA is why its Board brought in Tony Bruno. No amount of lobbying could save them from the coming hiatus in military space launch revenues. They must emphasize building their new rocket over the lobbying that brought them so much in the past. Tony was and is their great hope for competing with SpaceX, rather than talking to Senators.
I think you’re right on both of your initial points. I think ULA conceded this launch internally quite some time ago and are using it to lobby not only for more RD-180 engines but also for better contract terms in future proposals. I hope they win.
The terms of this solicitation make it seem like almost a set-aside for SpaceX. That’s not a bad thing from a taxpayer’s perspective. SpaceX is certainly higher risk than ULA, but they’re also considerably less expensive. With the GPS constellation currently healthy (30 available satellites vs. a requirement for only 24) and with — by the time the GPS IIIA-4 satellite launches — an assembly line kicking out a new satellite every few months, the Air Force can afford to take a chance with a new provider to save on launch costs. In fact, it’s the perfect time to do so.
But for the expensive NRO birds — which are said to cost as much as an aircraft carrier — it makes no sense to go with a low-cost provider at the expense of reliability. Those solicitations should be Best Value, not LPTA, and ULA is right to press for that. The result for the Air Force will be a high / low split, with ULA taking the expensive missions where reliability is king and SpaceX taking the less expensive missions where it is not.
Long term, SpaceX will move up the value chain and gain ever-increasing capability and ULA will reduce their costs. If the Air Force plays their cards right they’ll end up with two providers that are both low-cost and high-capability.
That’ll be a good thing.