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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

So please consider donating or subscribing to Behind the Black, either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. I could really use the support at this time. There are five ways of doing so:

 

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

 

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ULA concedes GPS competition to SpaceX

The competition cools down: ULA has decided against bidding on a military GPS launch contract, leaving the field clear for SpaceX.

ULA, which for the past decade has launched nearly every U.S. national security satellite, said Nov. 16 it did not submit a bid to launch a GPS 3 satellite for the Air Force in 2018 in part because it does not expect to have an Atlas 5 rocket available for the mission. ULA has been pushing for relief from legislation Congress passed roughly a year ago requiring the Air Force to phase out its use of the Russian-made RD-180 engine that powers ULA’s workhorse Atlas 5 rocket.

This decision might be a lobbying effort by ULA to force Congress to give them additional waivers on using the Atlas 5 engine. Or it could be that they realize that they wouldn’t be able to match SpaceX’s price, and decided it was pointless wasting time and money putting together a bid. Either way, the decision suggests that ULA is definitely challenged in its competition with SpaceX, and until it gets a new lower cost rocket that is not dependent on Russian engines, its ability to compete in the launch market will be seriously hampered.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

2 comments

  • Tom Billings

    The clear perception that this day was coming to ULA is why its Board brought in Tony Bruno. No amount of lobbying could save them from the coming hiatus in military space launch revenues. They must emphasize building their new rocket over the lobbying that brought them so much in the past. Tony was and is their great hope for competing with SpaceX, rather than talking to Senators.

  • mkent

    I think you’re right on both of your initial points. I think ULA conceded this launch internally quite some time ago and are using it to lobby not only for more RD-180 engines but also for better contract terms in future proposals. I hope they win.

    The terms of this solicitation make it seem like almost a set-aside for SpaceX. That’s not a bad thing from a taxpayer’s perspective. SpaceX is certainly higher risk than ULA, but they’re also considerably less expensive. With the GPS constellation currently healthy (30 available satellites vs. a requirement for only 24) and with — by the time the GPS IIIA-4 satellite launches — an assembly line kicking out a new satellite every few months, the Air Force can afford to take a chance with a new provider to save on launch costs. In fact, it’s the perfect time to do so.

    But for the expensive NRO birds — which are said to cost as much as an aircraft carrier — it makes no sense to go with a low-cost provider at the expense of reliability. Those solicitations should be Best Value, not LPTA, and ULA is right to press for that. The result for the Air Force will be a high / low split, with ULA taking the expensive missions where reliability is king and SpaceX taking the less expensive missions where it is not.

    Long term, SpaceX will move up the value chain and gain ever-increasing capability and ULA will reduce their costs. If the Air Force plays their cards right they’ll end up with two providers that are both low-cost and high-capability.

    That’ll be a good thing.

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