Tag: commercial

NASA appears to be about to drop Boeing’s Starliner from its manned mission schedule in 2025

10:17 am

In a short announcement outlining its planned two manned ISS missions for 2025, NASA by omission revealed that it now does not expect Boeing’s Starliner capsule to be ready for the second manned flight in July 2025, as previously planned.

Previous updates had noted what capsule would launch the astronauts, with the plan to have Dragon launch the February 2025 crew and Starliner the July 2025 crew. It was assumed in those earlier updates that Starliner would be certified for operational use after the completion of its first manned demo this past summer. This new update does not provide this capsule information, instead saying the following:

The timing and configuration of Starliner’s next flight will be determined once a better understanding of Boeing’s path to system certification is established. This determination will include considerations for incorporating Crew Flight Test lessons learned, approvals of final certification products, and operational readiness.

Meanwhile, NASA is keeping options on the table for how best to achieve system certification, including windows of opportunity for a potential Starliner flight in 2025.

It appears NASA is pulling back from that certification, based on the various technical issues experienced by Starliner during that demo mission, issues that eventually forced NASA to return the capsule unmanned. As such, this announcement yesterday suggests that there is serious negotiations going on between Boeing and NASA as to what will happen next. It appears the agency wants Boeing to fly another demo mission — on Boeing’s dime — before putting astronauts on board and paying for a mission. The Starliner contract was fixed price, and until Boeing successfully completes that manned demo mission NASA is not obligated to pay it any additional funds.

I suspect Boeing is telling NASA it can’t afford to do this, and if NASA doesn’t pony up some bucks for that demo flight it will simply not do it, and NASA will be stuck with just SpaceX as its manned ferry to ISS.

Unconfirmed reports had suggested NASA was considering issuing Boeing a separate contract to do a cargo mission to ISS using Starliner, thus allowing it to pay the company to fly a test mission outside of the fixed price contract. This NASA update yesterday suggests these negotiations are on going, but likely cannot be completed until after the election. A new administration might balk at such a deal.

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Astrolab unveils small prototype unmanned rover

9:50 am

Astrolab, one of three companies with NASA design contracts to develop a manned lunar rover, yesterday unveiled a small prototype unmanned rover that the company has designed to test on the Moon and actually hopes to launch on Astrobotic’s Griffin lander.

In a presentation at the International Astronautical Congress here Oct. 15, Astrolab announced plans to build the FLEX Lunar Innovation Platform, or FLIP, rover for launch as soon as the end of 2025. The half-ton rover will have a payload capacity of 30 to 50 kilograms.

A key purpose of FLIP is to test key systems for its larger FLEX, or Flexible Logistics and Exploration, rover, maturing their technology readiness levels (TRLs). “We want to raise the TRL of our technologies ahead of our other missions,” said Jaret Matthews, founder and chief executive of Astrolab. FLIP will test the same battery modules that the larger FLEX will use and has the same tires as FLEX. Other technologies Astrolab plans to test on the smaller rover include actuators, power systems and communications.

Though no deal has been announced, FLIP was clearly designed to match the fit of NASA’s now canceled VIPER rover that was to be launched on Astrobotic’s Griffin lander. Griffin is still being prepped for its lunar mission to be launched in 2025, but no longer has that prime payload. It is very obvious that Astrolab is vying to make FLIP that prime payload.

If so, the company will have once again demonstrated the advantages of private enterprise. NASA spent almost a billion on VIPER, going so much over budget and behind schedule that the agency had to cancel it. Astrolab has now come up with a replacement in almost no time at all, for likely pennies on the dollar. It is for sure simpler, but it also is likely to fly and test engineering, while VIPER will not.

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The evidence strongly suggests FAA top management is working to sabotage SpaceX

2:44 pm

FAA administrator Mike Whitaker today said this to SpaceX:
FAA administrator Mike Whitaker to SpaceX:
“Nice company you have there. Shame if something
happened to it.”

After SpaceX’s incredibly successful fifth test flight of Starship/Superheavy on October 13, 2024, I began to wonder about the complex bureaucratic history leading up to that flight. I was most puzzled by the repeated claims by FAA officials that it would issue no launch license before late November, yet ended up approving a license in mid-October in direct conflict with these claims. In that context I was also puzzled by the FAA’s own written approval of that launch, which in toto seemed to be a complete vindication of all of SpaceX’s actions while indirectly appearing to be a condemnation of the agency’s own upper management.

What caused the change at the FAA? Why was it claiming no approval until late November when it was clear by early October that SpaceX was preparing for a mid-October launch? And why claim late November when the FAA’s own bureaucracy has now made it clear in approving the launch that a mid-October date was always possible, and nothing SpaceX did prevented that.

I admit my biases: My immediate speculation is always to assume bad behavior by government officials. But was that speculation correct? Could it also be that SpaceX had not done its due diligence properly, causing the delays, as claimed by the FAA?

While doing my first review of the FAA’s written reevaluation [pdf] that approved the October 13th launch, I realized that a much closer review of the history and timeline of events might clarify these questions.

So, below is that timeline, as best as I can put together from the public record. The lesser known acronyms stand for the following:

TCEQ: Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
NMFS: National Marine Fisheries Service (part of NOAA)
FWS: Fish & Wildlife Service (part of the Department of Interior)

My inserted comments periodically tell the story and provide some context.
» Read more

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Army successfully completes one-year commercial satellite pilot program

10:05 am

Capitalism in space: The U.S. Army has now successfully completed a one-year pilot program whereby it purchased the use of commercial communications satellites from both Intelsat and SES, rather than attempt to build and launch its own satellites.

Under the pilot, the Army selected satellite operators Intelsat and SES to provide “satcom as a managed service,” a model where the provider handles all satellite communications functions — from setup and maintenance of equipment to network management and technical support — through a subscription-based contract.

The project, officially completed on Sept. 30, is now raising questions about whether the Department of Defense will expand its reliance on commercial satcom providers for long-term military communications needs. David Broadbent, president of Intelsat’s Government Solutions, said that while the pilot program demonstrated the efficiency of managed services, it is still uncertain if the Army will fully embrace this model for future satellite communications (satcom) procurement.

It appears that the Pentagon’s bureaucracy is uncomfortable with the idea, and is resisting expanding the program beyond this one test. For decades the military has designed, built, owned, and operated its own satellites. That approach has created a very large job-base within the military that feels threatened by the idea of out-sourcing this work to the private sector. That approach however has also in the last two decades done a poor job of providing the Pentagon the communications satellites it needs on time and on budget.

Whether the Pentagon will change to this new approach, as NASA mostly has, will likely hinge on who wins the election in November. A Harris administration will likely provide little guidance one way or the other, but will also likely take the side of the bureaucrats in power now. A Trump administration is much more likely to force a change.

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NASA extends the mission of the lunar orbiter Capstone to the end of 2025

9:36 am

The Moon as seen by Capstone
The Moon as seen by Capstone during itsMay 2023 close fly-by.
Click for original image.

NASA has now funded the mission of the privately built and operated lunar orbiter Capstone to the end of 2025, allowing it to complete engineering testing by more than two years of the orbit around the Moon that NASA’s Lunar Gateway space station intends to use.

Extending CAPSTONE’s mission also allows further collaboration with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. That partnership comes via a recently extended Space Act Agreement to evaluate, and when appropriate, conduct opportunities for cross-link data collection between the two spacecraft.

The spacecraft is entirely commercial, with NASA merely acting as the customer. It was built by Terran Orbital, launched by Rocket Lab, and is owned and operated by the private company Advanced Space, making it I think the first interplanetary probe operated entirely by the private sector for NASA. Advanced Space’s achievement was further magnified in shortly after launch the spacecraft had some thruster issues causing it to tumble. The company’s engineers were able to regain control and get it to the Moon.

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SpaceX completes two launches last night from opposite coasts

8:46 am

With the FAA bureaucrats finally getting out of the way and lifting its absurd and clearly politically motiavated grounding of SpaceX, the company has wasted no time in resuming flight. Last night it completed two Starlink launches only two hours apart from opposite coasts.

First, it launched 23 satellites from Cape Canaveral, using a Falcon 9 rocket with a first stage flying on its eleventh flight and successfully landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Then, two hours later it launched 20 more Starlink satellites from Vandenberg, with a Falcon 9 first stage flying for the nineteenth time and successfully landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

With these two launches, the company has completed 100 successful launches in 2024. It had already broken its own record for the most launches by a private company in a single year when it put Starship/Superheavy into orbit on October 13th. Whether it can achieve its goal of 150 launches in this year remains uncertain, but what does it matter? SpaceX has unequivocally proven the benefits of private ownership and capitalism, now achieving as many launches as any other entire country. Russia had completed 100 launches in 1982, which was only topped last year by the United States, but only because SpaceX made it happen.

And literally the sky is the limit, since as long as SpaceX is producing revenue and profits from its effort — which it is — there is nothing to stop it from topping these numbers for decades to come.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

100 SpaceX
45 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 117 to 68, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 100 to 85.

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Vast unveils its proposed full space station concept

11:26 am

Haven-2
Haven-2 station once completed

After revealing the layout planned for its first single module space station dubbed Haven-1 last week, the startup Vast today unveiled its proposed full space station concept, dubbed Haven-2.

The graphic to the right is a screen capture from the video describing the step-by-step assembly of this larger station. Initially it will be comprised of four modules, linked together in a straight line. This confirguration is aimed at winning a space station contract from NASA when it announces the winners in the second phase of its commercial space station program in mid-2026. If picked, Vast then intends in the expand that four-module station to the eight modules illustrated in the graphic.

Between 2030 and 2032, Vast will add a larger 7m diameter core module and four more Haven-2 modules, fully realizing the next-generation commercial space station capable of meeting the needs of international partners, NASA, commercial researchers & manufacturers, and private astronauts.

Key features of the completed station include an unprecedented 3.8m diameter cupola window, external payload hosting capabilities, a robotic arm, visiting vehicle berthing capabilities, external payload airlock, and an extravehicular activity (EVA) airlock to support customers’ needs. Each module will also feature two Haven-1-like 1.1m dome windows, totaling 16 windows by 2032.

Vast’s design is projected to surpass all other proposed on-orbit space stations in terms of volume, functionality, and operational efficiency.

Vast’s overall plan is quite ambitious, but well thought out. If all goes as planned, just as NASA is about to decide on the winners in phase 2 of its space station program, Vast plans to launch in 2026 its Haven-1 station and immediately fly a manned 30-day mission to it, using SpaceX rockets and Dragon capsules. If successful, that private mission will do wonders in convincing NASA to pick Vast.

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SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy launches NASA’s Europa Clipper mission

9:50 am

Europa's approximate orbit around Jupiter
Click for original image.

SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket this morning successfully launched NASA’s Europa Clipper mission on its way to Jupiter, the rocket lifting off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

In order to get the energy to reach Jupiter, none of the Falcon Heavy’s first stage boosters were recovered today. The two side boosters completed their sixth and final flights with this mission, while the core booster completed its first launch. The only parts of the rocket that will be recovered and reused were the two fairing halves.

To get to Jupiter, the spacecraft will make first a fly-by of Mars in February 2025, and then a fly-by of Earth in December 2026. It will arrive in Jupiter orbit in April 2030, where its orbit will be adjusted to fly close past Europa many times in order to study it closely, as shown by the graphic on the right. It will not going into orbit around the planet because that would place it permanently inside the high radiation environment around Jupiter. This is especially important because the spacecraft has installed transistors that were not properly hardened for that environment.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

98 SpaceX
45 China
11 Russia
11 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 115 to 68, while SpaceX by itself now leads the entire world, including American companies, 98 to 85.

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ESA awards D-Orbit €119.6 million contract to complete Europe’s first robotic service mission

9:25 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) today awarded the European orbital tug company D-Orbit a €119.6 million contract to fly Europe’s first robotic mission to extend the life of an already orbiting satellite.

Referred to as RISE, the mission will demonstrate the D-Orbit GEA satellite life extension vehicle’s ability to dock with a geostationary satellite, maneuver the satellite, and then release it. After this sequence is verified, ESA’s involvement in its operation will come to an end. The vehicle will then move into an operational phase with D-Orbit offering a life extension service to active geostationary satellite operators.

The mission is targeting a 2028 launch, though no specific target satellite as yet has been identified.

This project is very similar to the Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV) robotic missions of Northrop Grumman, which has been flown twice successfully. I guess ESA needed to see it work before it would consider doing its own mission. Moreover, ESA probably wanted to sign up a European company to do it, and until now no such company existed. D-Orbit has already completed fourteen orbital tug missions with seven more scheduled for 2025. This mission extension project however will be a significant leap forward in its capabilities, funded by ESA.

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Estonia signs Artemis Accords

8:55 am

NASA yesterday announced that Estonia had become the 45th nation to sign the Artemis Accords, the bi-lateral treaty created during the Trump administration initially to overcome the Outer Space Treaty’s limits on private property and ownership.

The Biden administration appears to be working to de-emphasize those goals, and in fact to instead strengthen the Outer Space Treaty. From this press release (and similar to statements in all recent press releases):

The accords are grounded in the Outer Space Treaty and other agreements including the Registration Convention, the Rescue and Return Agreement, as well as best practices and norms of responsible behavior that NASA and its partners have supported, including the public release of scientific data.

The full list of nations is as follows: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Peru, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

It is interesting to note that Estonia as well as Lithuania, Armenia, and the Ukraine were once part of the Soviet Union (against their will). Similarly, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia were once part of the Soviet bloc, also against their will. It appears they want to ally themselves with the west, with one reason their fear that Russia might invade them as it has the Ukraine. It also could be that these nations agree with the Trump administration’s original goals, and wish to promote capitalism and private property, having experienced for decades the failures of communist and authoritarian rule.

The future goals of the Artemis Accord alliance will demand entirely on who wins the presidency in the elction in November.

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