Tag: policy

The first complete geologic map of Moon

9:15 am

Geologic map of Moon

Using data from several recent lunar orbiters, scientists have compiled and now released the first comprehensive geologic map of the Moon.

To create the new digital map, scientists used information from six Apollo-era regional maps along with updated information from recent satellite missions to the moon. The existing historical maps were redrawn to align them with the modern data sets, thus preserving previous observations and interpretations. Along with merging new and old data, USGS researchers also developed a unified description of the stratigraphy, or rock layers, of the moon. This resolved issues from previous maps where rock names, descriptions and ages were sometimes inconsistent.

“This map is a culmination of a decades-long project,” said Corey Fortezzo, USGS geologist and lead author. “It provides vital information for new scientific studies by connecting the exploration of specific sites on the moon with the rest of the lunar surface.”

The image to the right shows the Moon’s near side.

The complete map file is free to download, and I guarantee that scientists and engineers in China are downloading it even as I type, planning to use it to establish their ownership to the Moon’s most valuable real estate that we scouted for them.

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What We Should ALL Be Doing Right Now!

10:03 am

I think this video clarifies perfectly the policies of our state and federal governments as well as the advice of all of their experts concerning the Wuhan flu. If we would only do what they tell us, all would be fine!

It also illustrates why we as citizens should simply begin living our lives normally, telling them to go to hell.

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Iran launches its first military satellite

9:09 am

UPDATE: The U.S. military has confirmed that two objects reached orbit, one the satellite and the other likely the rocket’s upper stage.

Original post:
————————————
Iran yesterday claimed it had successfully completed its first military orbital launch.

Using a mobile launcher at a new launch site, the Guard said it put the “Noor,” or “Light,” satellite into a low orbit circling the Earth. While the U.S., Israel and other countries declined to immediately confirm the satellite reached orbit, their criticism suggested they believed the launch happened.

There is no doubt Iran is aggressively trying to raise its presence as a space power. However, until this launch is firmly confirmed as successful, we must be skeptical of any claims they make, as they have lied repeatedly about previous launches.

At the same time, the use of a mobile launcher to attempt to get a satellite into orbit indicates they are developing very dangerous capabilities. With a mobile launcher, there is no need to build a complex launch facility. You can launch from practically anywhere, which makes it just about impossible to destroy the rocket facility beforehand.

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A reasoned look at masks and whether they really work

12:23 am

Link here. Based on my reading, he thinks they can be helpful, but only to a very limited extent, and certainly not to the extent of any government here in the U.S. requiring their use.

The point is: does any of what is out there add up to a watertight case for compelling people to wear masks in public or at work (outside a healthcare setting)? The threshold for compulsion must surely be higher than ‘maybe’ and ‘perhaps’. [emphasis mine]

We are supposed to be a land of freedom, of personal choice and personal responsibility. Research this, make your own decision, but do not force your choice on others.

Note that if you can’t see the article because they are demanding that you subscribe, refresh and immediately hit the escape key. If you time it right (it’s not hard), you can keep the article text up and block the subscribe screen.

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The real devastation from COVID-19: A destroyed economy imposed by government panic

2:01 pm

While many state governors across the United States dawdle and hesitate about lifting their panic-induced lock downs on their states out of fear it might cause a few more Wuhan virus deaths, the real devastation from their panic is propagating uncontrolled across the landscape, and will in the end kill far far more people.

Their actions have caused the entire economy to collapse, destroyed entire industrial sectors, prevented untold numbers from getting the proper healthcare when needed, and put millions of people out of work. In the end, this government-imposed depression will do far more harm that the Wuhan flu ever could, and do it for a much longer time spell.

Don’t believe me? Well let me count the ways, citing the numerous stories I have posted here on Behind the Black in only the past week.
» Read more

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8 million restaurant workers unemployed due to government-imposed shutdowns

9:41 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Eight million restaurant workers out of work due to due to Wuhan panic and government-imposed shut downs.

In addition, the restaurant industry is predicting $240 billion (with a “b”) in losses by the end of the year. Moreover,

…roughly 3% of the restaurants in the US — or 30,000 restaurants — have already shuttered. In the early April survey, an additional 5% of operators said they anticipated closing in the next 30 days, meaning that more than 50,000 restaurants could shut down permanently.

In early April, UBS said that up to one in five restaurants in the US could close due to the coronavirus pandemic. Experts say that independent restaurants are particularly at risk, with many small businesses struggling to access PPP loans.

In my own neighborhood, I have already seen one restaurant go out of business, and another apparently destroyed just as it was about to open. Through the winter a new Indian restaurant was being built nearby, with signs saying it would soon open. Unfortunately the house arrest imposed by our fearless leader Governor Doug Ducey prevented them from opening as planned. Though the restaurant had signs up offering take-out this week, when Diane tried to pick up a menu so we could give them some business. the place was shut. I suspect they are out of business, a dream destroyed before it could even be born.

But hey, we can’t risk having anyone die from COVID-19, no matter how many other lives we destroy.

Are you enraged yet?

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Clean energy industry faces loss of a half million jobs

9:23 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The clean energy sector faces the loss of a half million jobs due to Wuhan panic and government-imposed shut downs.

The coronavirus crisis is cutting a savage swath through the U.S. clean energy industry – some 106,000 jobs in the sector vanished in the month of March alone as demand evaporated amid nationwide stay-at-home orders Moreover, that one-month job loss was greater than what the industry gained in jobs in all of 2019.

By June of this year, the clean energy sector may lose up to 500,000 jobs – or 15% of the country’s entire clean energy workforce — according to a study by clean energy advocacy group E2 (Environmental Entrepreneurs), in cooperation with the American Council on Renewable Energy, E4TheFuture and BW Research Partnership.

Let me repeat: More jobs vanished in just March than were created in all of last year.

If the states don’t start reopening soon, this will just be the beginning.

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Cancer and heart patients dying because of government-imposed shut downs

9:03 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because state governments nationwide have forbid the entire healthcare system from treating anyone for anything that might in a rare instant be considered “non-essential”, cancer and heart patients are dying from lack of treatment.

Two stories from the article:

Although canceling procedures such as elective hernia repairs and knee replacements is relatively straightforward, for many interventions the line between urgent and nonurgent can be drawn only in retrospect. As Brian Kolski, director of the structural heart disease program at St. Joseph Hospital in Orange County, California, told me, “A lot of procedures deemed ‘elective’ are not necessarily elective.” Two patients in his practice whose transthoracic aortic valvular replacements were postponed, for example, died while waiting. “These patients can’t wait 2 months,” Kolski said. “Some of them can’t wait 2 weeks.” Rather than a broad moratorium on elective procedures, Kolski believes we need a more granular approach. “What has been the actual toll on some of these patients?” he asked.

Mr. R., a 75-year-old man with advanced heart failure, is another of Kolski’s patients for whom the toll has been great. Because he had progressive volume overload and delirium, Kolski referred him to a hospital for an LVAD workup in early March. Then, as his wife, Ms. R., told me, “the world went wonky, and everything went down the toilet.” Having begun admitting patients with coronavirus, the hospital told the couple it was kicking everyone else out. “They are telling me my husband has 6 to 12 months to live without this procedure,” Ms. R. said, “and now they are canceling it on us.” They were then quarantined at home — 2 hours away from the hospital — with no plan in place. Mr. R.’s health quickly deteriorated again, but his wife had been advised to keep him out of the hospital. When they finally had a video visit on April 9, he’d become so ill that the heart failure physician didn’t recognize him. Mr. R. was promptly admitted, and the LVAD was placed. Though Ms. R. is relieved, ongoing challenges include her husband’s persistent delirium, a visitor policy that allows her to be at the bedside only intermittently, and the need for nearby lodging that they can’t afford.

There are others. Read it all. I will also bet these doctors then wrote a fraudulent death certificate, claiming the heart patients died of the Wuhan flu.

This reminds me of my experience with my lung specialist. Unlike these people, I would not take no for an answer. How dare these doctors allow a heart patient to die because of a government edict?!

But we can’t let COVID-19 kill anyone, even if it means more people die from other causes!

This is madness, at a very high level.

And are you enraged yet? Or will you sit with folded hands while these tyrants smash their boots into your face?

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100K airline jobs facing elimination due to Wuhan panic shut downs

3:44 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because of the panic over the Wuhan flu, the airlines are contemplating eliminating more than hundred thousand jobs as well as shrinking their fleets.

Unable to cut jobs or salaries while receiving grants to cover payroll, airlines will staff their typical summer peak largely as usual, even with millions of fewer travelers. But come fall, it could get ugly for employees. “We’re going to be smaller coming out of this,” Delta Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson told employees last month. “Certainly quite a bit smaller than when we went into it.”

The reversal of fortune comes as a shock for an industry that just last year was breaking passenger traffic records. Last week, the average number of U.S. daily passengers declined 96%, to 95,531, compared with 2.39 million last year, according to Transportation Security Administration data compiled by Bloomberg. United shares fell Monday after it gave a snapshot of the industry bloodbath triggered by the pandemic, projecting a $2.1 billion loss in the first quarter. Delta, American and Southwest Airlines Co. will release their earnings in the coming days.

Such anemic demand means that anything less than a robust rebound over the coming months will prompt airlines to cut more employees, jettison older aircraft and cut more salaries, which in turn could persuade more workers to depart. During the past two months, at least 87,000 employees—more than one quarter of the Big Three airlines’ workforce—have taken voluntary leaves, early retirement or reduced work hours.

Carriers face “the worst cash crisis in the history of flight,” with booked revenues down 103% year over year, according to industry lobby Airlines for America. Domestic flights are averaging just 10 passengers while international flights average 24, the group said. “We could see the airlines look to shed 800 to 1,000 aircraft, which could result in a reduction of 95,000 to 105,000 airline jobs.”

In this case, the government shut downs only have had an indirect effect. By panicking and overstating the threat from COVID-19, the authorities and the press have made people terrified of flying. Even if the shutdowns end, the airlines will not recover until the public decides it is safe to fly again.

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Rural hospitals in eastern Washington state face bankruptcy

3:14 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because the state government’s panicked reaction to the Wuhan virus resulting in a banning of almost all procedures, rural hospitals in eastern Washington state now face financial collapse, bankruptcy, and possible closure.

With the state’s support, federal aid and advanced Medicare loans, the critical access hospital will be able to stay afloat – for now. But the financial impact of COVID-19 on Washington state’s rural hospitals cannot be understated. “This is unprecedented. There’s no way you could be financially prepared for this,” Jacqueline Barton True, vice president of rural health programs at the Washington State Hospital Association, said. “This sort of financial devastation is not something that we could have prepared for, and I have a lot of concerns about what happens if help doesn’t come soon enough.”

Some rural hospitals have received their first installment of funds from the federal CARES Act. Those payments are about $400,000 to $600,000 on average for smaller hospitals, according to WSHA.

Despite having a robust way for most rural hospitals to access community taxpayer support through the public hospital district model, rural hospitals in Eastern Washington are losing money on a daily basis as they balance pandemic preparations with canceled elective surgeries, primary care or patient therapy.

The article is long, outlining in frightening detail the impending collapse of the entire rural hospital network. The bottom line however remains the same: The state government arbitrarily decided that most medical procedures were “non-essential” and banned them so that the hospital would not be overwhelmed by Wuhan flu patients.

Those patients have never arrived in the feared numbers however. Instead we are looking at a normal flu season, when you combine coronavirus with flu cases. Lacking the revenue stream from all other cases, the hospitals are losing money and face bankruptcy.

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Price of oil crashes, goes negative

1:31 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Due to the crash in demand due to the government-imposed Wuhan panic shutdowns, oil producers, who can’t turn off their oil wells, have run out of storage space and are now forced to pay others to take the oil off their hands, thus sending the price of oil into negative numbers.

Physical demand for crude has dried up, creating a global supply glut as billions of people stay home to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell more than 100% to settle at negative $37.63 per barrel.

Meanwhile, international benchmark, Brent crude, which has already rolled to the June contract, traded 8.9% lower at $25.58 per barrel.

While this crash is indicative of the entire crash of the economy, in the near long term it might be a good thing. If the government ever decides to release us from house arrest and people decide it is time to go back to normal, the low price of oil will help stricken businesses get back on their feet.

Then again, there is a very big “if” in that last sentence. I see no indication that our fascist state governors, especially in states run by Democrat governors, have the slightest interest in ending the shut downs. They like the almost absolute power it has given them over everyone, and that absolute power is corrupting them quite effectively. They might be making noises about “easing” the restrictions, but that is only political dishonesty. The bottom line will remain: They are now in control of everything everyone does, and have the right to give or take, as they please, whenever they please.

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Social distancing and lockdowns killing craft beer industry

10:46 am

The beating will continue until morale improves: The new normal of “social distancing”, combined with the government-imposed lock downs, threatens to bankrupt the craft beer industry nationwide.

As much as 15% of craft breweries expect to close by the end of the month if social distancing remains in place, according to a national survey from the Boulder-based Brewers Association, and more than 60% don’t expect to survive beyond June.

If applied to Colorado — which now counts about 420 breweries — the projections suggest 250 would close by summer. That would represent a huge dent for an industry woven into the state’s identity and one that contributes more than $3 billion a year to the state’s economy.

Our society, our culture, our economy, and even the human race itself cannot survive if we accept the premise that no one can ever be closer than six feet to another. It isn’t practical, and it certainly isn’t sane.

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Study finds COVID-19 infecting homeless in large numbers, with few ill effects

9:25 am

A CDC study that established universal testing for Wuhan virus antibodies at a homeless shelter in Boston has found that almost forty percent of those tested had been infected previously, with no symptoms.

The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.

“It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell, president of Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program, which provides medical care at the city’s shelters. [emphasis mine]

Not only does this reinforce results from previous studies (here and here) suggesting that the mortality of coronavirus is much smaller than so far measured and quite likely comparable to the flu, it shows that it is not a threat to the general population.

Think about it. The homeless population is usually unhealthy, with alcoholism and drug use prevalent. Yet, even here a large number got infected, exhibited no symptoms, and were unbothered by the virus. It is possible that their normal ill health disguised their symptoms, but nonetheless the Wuhan flu did not kill them.

If it couldn’t kill large numbers in this population, it means it certainly will not kill large numbers in the normal population. Which means that the lockdowns, social distancing, and coming economic crash, all imposed by government and media panic, were all unnecessary.

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Russians slash their launch prices by 39%

9:08 am

Capitalism in space: Having lost their entire commercial market share because of SpaceX’s lower prices, the Russians have finally decided to slash their launch prices by 39%.

As the article notes, the cost for a Proton rocket launch was once $100 million. Then SpaceX came along with a $60 million pricetag. At first the Russians poo-pooed this, and did nothing. When their customers started to vanish however they decided to finally compete, so a year ago they cut the Proton price to match SpaceX’s.

Because of SpaceX’s ability to reuse its first stages, however, that $60 million price no longer worked. SpaceX had a year earlier lowered its prices even more, to $50 million, for launches with used first stages.

This new price slash by Roscosmos probably brings their price down to about $36 million, and thus beats SpaceX.

We shall see whether it will attract new customers. It definitely is now cheaper, but it is also less reliable. Russia continues to have serious quality control problems at its manufacturing level.

That SpaceX’s arrival forced a drop in the price of a launch from $100 million to less than $40 million illustrates the beautiful value of freedom and competition. The change is even more spectacular when you consider that ULA, the dominant American launch company before SpaceX, had been charging between $200 to $400 million per launch. For decades the Russians, ULA, and Arianespace refused to compete, working instead as a cartel to keep costs high.

SpaceX has ended this corrupt practice. We now have a competitive launch industry, and the result is that the exploration of the solar system is finally becoming a real possibility.

Correction: I originally called ULA “the only American launch company before SpaceX.” This was not correct, as Orbital Sciences, now part of Northrop Grumman, was also launching satellites. It just was a very minor player, with little impact. It was also excluded from the military’s EELV program, and thus could not launch payloads for them after around 2005.

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Massachusetts study finds 1/3 of participants had already been infected with COVID-19, without symptoms

11:39 pm

A Massachusetts study of 200 residents on a single street found that one third already had antibodies for the Wuhan flu and had never known they have been infected.

The Mass. General study took samples from 200 residents on the street in Chelsea, MA. Participants remained anonymous and provided a drop of blood to researchers, who were able to produce a result in ten minutes with a rapid test.

Sixty-four of the participants tested positive – a “sobering” result, according to Thomas Ambrosino, Chelsea’s city manager. “We’ve long thought that the reported numbers are vastly under-counting what the actual infection is,” Ambrosino told the Boston Globe.

The article, and the government officials quoted, all try to make this result terrifying and something to fear, but the truth is that it is most heartening and more wonderful news. It indicates, as did the California study reported on April 17, that the death rate for coronavirus is much lower than presently calculated because we have been under-estimating the total number of people infected.

Moreover, these individuals apparently experienced few if any symptoms after getting infected, suggesting once again that the disease is not a serious threat to the general population. In fact, it suggests again that the more people who can get infected, the fewer hosts will be available for the virus, and it will die out.

That these officials instead tried to install panic over this encouraging data tells us all that we need to know about these officials. They are lying thugs, aimed not at easing the crisis but in using it to bring power to government, at the expense of the general public.

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Disney to furlough 100K employees because of government-imposed shut downs

10:47 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Disney is stopping the salaries of hundred thousand employees this week due to the shut downs imposed upon it by our panicked government over COVID-19.

The company says it will still provide full healthcare benefits for those employees, for the moment.

Once again, the shuttering of the Disney theme parks ripples out into the entire local economy. It isn’t just these employees who are now out of work, it is the hotel, transportation, and restaurant employees whose businesses served the same tourist customers.

Will the theme park entertainment come back? Unknown, I’d say, because the fear being pounded into everyone to “social distance,” to an absurd level, might mean that tourists will no longer feel comfortable visiting such venues.

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Bankruptcy for Neiman Marcus because of government-imposed shutdown

3:05 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Neiman Marcus to file for bankruptcy, furlough 14,000, due to government-imposed shutdown because of the Wuhan panic.

Neiman Marcus Group, one of the largest retailers in the United States, is reportedly ready to file bankruptcy amid the COVD-19 pandemic after defaulting millions in bond payments last week and furloughing 14,000 employees.

Neiman Marcus would become the first major US department store to crumble amidst the economic set backs from the coronavirus outbreak. Reuters reported the company had few options after the coronavirus spurred lockdowns that shuttered non-essential businesses, including all 43 of their stores. This includes Last Call stores and its two New York City Bergdorf Goodman department stores.

And yes, I know it was already struggling, as are many brick-and-mortar department stores because of the shift to online shopping. The government over-reaction to the Wuhan virus however has done a great job of pushing the company over the edge, killing it.

As with any failure like this, the consequences will ripple outward far beyond the loss of this one company. The lost jobs will mean people will not have money to spend, so other businesses will suffer. The downward spiral will only get worse.

Want to know what it was like to live in failing socialist societies like the Soviet Union and Venezuela? You are now getting the chance. In our case the government has apparently bypassed the direct takeover of industry and the economy where it would over a few years run the society into bankruptcy. Instead, it decided to destroy everything by edict, all in one blow.

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Unprecedented wave of evictions coming due to Wuhan panic

2:35 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Based on court filings, authorities in Oklahoma expect an unprecedented number of rental evictions in the coming months due to the government-imposed business shut downs and resulting unemployment.

Attorneys and academics told The Oklahoman a moratorium on eviction hearings, once ended, will be followed by a wave of evictions creating a homeless population not seen since the Great Depression.

…The state’s unemployment rate hit record levels within weeks of the outbreak, with first-time claims on unemployment insurance up by nearly 800%. Nearly 100,000 Oklahomans, more than the entire population of Edmond, filed initial claims in the past two weeks. “I don’t see how these people are going to be able to pay their bills,” [said Richard Klinge, director of the Pro Bono Eviction Assistance Program at Oklahoma City University]. “It’s a tsunami coming on the horizon as people can’t pay their rent.”

A national survey by Eviction Lab at Princeton University ranked Tulsa and Oklahoma City as cities with the 11th and 20th highest eviction rates based on 2016 data. The Pro Bono Eviction Assistance Program under Klinge has helped 650 families — more than 1,300 men, women and children — facing eviction and other landlord issues since the organization was started in 2018. That is only a fraction of total evictions the state could see this year alone.

“Before COVID-19 struck, based on filings to date in Oklahoma County, 14,000 cases would be set for Oklahoma County in 2020,” Klinge said. “That means more than 30,000 men, women and children will be facing eviction from their homes.

I remain amazed how little interest there is in the overall economic disaster that is going to bankrupt thousands of businesses and push millions out of their homes. In the end, this collapse of the economic is going to hurt (and kill) far more people that anything so far suggested possible by the Wuhan virus.

Instead, our state-run press, hawking propaganda for the government and its employees, seems only interested in reporting the possibility that government agencies might have to shrink and cut pay.

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More economic disasters due to government imposed shut downs

10:05 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Below are some stories I found today describing the on-going the collapse of the economy due to the nationwide lock downs imposed by state and local governments because of their panic over the Wuhan flu.

Note how the first two stories are about the sufferings of state employees, whether in government or academia. Note too how these stories only mention as an aside the collapse of the real economy. Who cares if millions of private businesses are going under? What’s really important is that we won’t be able to grab their profits and the government will have to shrink! Horrors!

Only the last two stories are about the real crash, with only the last, buried among many other stories on RealClearPolitics, telling the true tale:

The Commerce Department said on Thursday business applications dropped 21.4% in the week ending April 11, compared with the same period last year.

…The slump in business applications comes as states and local governments have issued “stay-at-home” or “shelter-in-place” orders affecting more than 90% of Americans to control the spread of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory illness caused by the virus, and abruptly halting economic activity.

At least 22 million people have filed for unemployment benefits in the last four weeks. Retail sales suffered a record drop in March and output at factories declined by the most since 1946. Homebuilding crumbled in March at a speed not seen in 36 years. Economists believe the economy contracted at its steepest pace since World War Two in the first quarter. [emphasis mine]

A 21% drop in new businesses tells us that the economy will not recover from this madness very quickly. Money is drying up, the banks are under a strain, and the economy is shrinking like a burst balloon.

The middle paragraph in the quote above is intended to justify this crash and government abuse of power by the use of the word “lethal,” thus playing up danger of the Wuhan flu, even though the evidence still shows it to be, like the flu, only a threat to the old and the sick. Like the flu, most everyone else simply fights it off with no long term consequences.

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Overall U.S. death rate is at a multi-year LOW

1:36 pm

Despite the panic over the Wuhan virus, it now appears that the overall U.S. death rate this winter season is at a multi-year low, no worse than 2014, 2016, and 2019, and far better than 2015, 2017, and 2018 (when we were hit with one of the worst flu seasons in years).

The article at the link for one example cites the totals for the first week in April:

On April 5th, the U.S. saw 1,344 COVID-19 deaths, as the number of cases in the U.S. accelerated. The overall number of deaths in the U.S., or the crude death rate did not show a correlated rise.

At the very least, this data shows we need to analyze COVID-19 deaths in the context of the broader U.S. mortality rate from all causes. It appears normal deaths are being attributed to COVID-19 if the patient is COVID-19+, even if another underlying chronic cause is responsible.

It then includes a graph showing the total deaths since 2014, plotted weekly. This year is remarkably ho-hum. The last two years were far worse. Go to the link and look at the graph for yourself if you have doubts.

Nor should anyone have ever been surprised by these numbers, even three months ago. All the evidence on the ground about COVID-19, once it had escaped from China and reliable data could begin to be gathered, suggested strongly that its general attack on humans was similar to the flu. Younger people were hardly bothered by it. Instead, it killed the old and sick. Since those people can’t die twice, it is manifestly obvious that we should have expected the overall numbers to not go up much.

Which is exactly what has happened.

Moreover, the panic over the Wuhan flu caused people to social distance themselves, which certainly acted to cause a drop in all infectious diseases. This might explain this year’s lower numbers, but it must also be noted that the drop in 2020 is not really that significant, illustrating again the pointlessness of all these preventative measures. You really can’t run from infectious diseases. They are going to spread through the population regardless. Only if it appears the disease is attacking the young should extreme measures be taken.

To put it bluntly, our elected leaders in Washington and in statehouses across the country, working in tandem with the incompetent (but well-paid) bureaucrats in Washington and with a overly emotional and partisan press willing to say any lie in order to attack Donald Trump, have caused what might turn out to be another great depression, for absolutely no reason at all.

In the process they have also acted to nullify the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, working as hard as they could to destroy the freest nation in the history of the world, and the most successful because of that freedom.

Are you enraged yet? And are you going to do something about it in November?

83 comments

Wuhan panic wipes out NY restaurant business

3:54 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: Because of the government shut down caused by the panic over the Wuhan virus, the entire New York city restaurant business, one of that city’s most important industries, is now facing closure and bankruptcy, with many stores boarding up their windows and going out of business.

Most restaurants are completely shuttered. Many that tried takeout and delivery ended their operations for fear of their employees and customers’ safety. Those that are still trying to make it work are unsustainably earning a fraction of what they normally would make. Federal Small Business Administration loans have yet to hit most bank accounts, and the programs have already run out of money. Even California, which is far ahead of New York in containing the virus, will reduce capacity in restaurants when the shutdown finally lifts, a move that many restaurateurs say will likely hurt businesses as they attempt to recover from the crisis.

The first sign of longer term decline is here: the boarded up storefront. Common during the lead-up to hurricanes to prevent flying debris from smashing up windows, plywood is otherwise used to minimize the risks of burglaries and looting. Will it get that bad? No owner that we reached out to would openly acknowledge it. But as the crisis drags on indefinitely, restaurants are starting to close permanently and unemployment continues to skyrocket. Some restaurateurs are taking a preventative tact in case the economic impact takes an even deeper turn.

The article talks about government help, but there isn’t enough money in the universe capable of covering these losses if the government shut downs continue much longer.

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Study suggests COVID-19 death rate is far less than presently reported, comparable to flu

3:47 pm

The uncertainty of science: A California large-scale study of COVID-19 anti-bodies in the general population has found that the infection rate for the Wuhan virus could be 50 to 85 times higher than present counts, which would mean that the death rate is actually quite low, comparable to the flu.

The results of the study are preliminary and not peer-reviewed, but the general takeaways would seem to strongly contribute to the notion that there have been a large number of COVID-19 cases that went undetected.

Due to questions over the antibody tests’ efficacy, researchers adjusted for test performance characteristics by using the test manufacturer’s data and a sample of controls tested at Stanford University. Again, the results are preliminary and the study has not been peer-reviewed, but researchers found a raw, unadjusted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, which was scaled up to 2.5-4.2 percent when adjusting for population and test performance characteristics.

Researchers estimate that if 2.5 to 4.2 percent of the county has already been infected, the true number of total cases in early April — both active and recovered — ranges between 48,000 and 81,000. The county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the study was conducted, which would mean cases are being underreported by a factor of 50 to 85. “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.

If the study’s numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20. [emphasis mine]

The researchers also note that, based on this study, not enough people have yet been infected to achieve herd immunity, a conclusion totally reasonable considering the effort being made to prevent infection.

Regardless, if true this illustrates again that this virus does not merit the mass hysteria it is causing. Because it, like the flu, mostly kills older and sicker people, not young healthy individuals, the overall mortality will almost certainly not be much different than past years. While it is tragic that this disease, plus the flu, is making survival harder and less likely for older individuals (such as myself by the way), it is unconscionable for us to bankrupt the whole society and abandon the rule of law for this reason.

Sadly, that is apparently what we are doing.

As the researchers note, these results are preliminary, and could turn out to be false. That they coincide with other research in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship however gives them some weight.

14 comments

Wuhan panic destroys flower business worldwide

1:31 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The worldwide panic over the Wuhan flu has in one month practically destroyed the $8.5 billion flower/bouquet industry.

Much of the crash has been caused by customers themselves cancelling weddings and events, but that process has been accelerated and promoted by the decision of governors to put their states under house arrest.

Within a few days, all of [flower seller Laura] Clare’s clients planning April weddings were scrambling to pick dates in the fall. She had to tell brides that some flowers, such as cherry blossoms, might not be available then. Soon, as the number of Covid-19 cases in New Jersey passed 1,000, the governor ordered all but essential businesses to close. Florists didn’t make the cut.

With her supply wilting, Clare started giving bouquets away, delivering some to older parishioners at a local church. She furloughed her five full-time employees and canceled her flower orders, which usually total at least $5,000 a week. She’s applying for a Small Business Administration loan that would let her put her workers back on the payroll. “I’ve been through 9/11,” Clare says. “I’ve been through Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Sandy. I’ve never seen anything like this before.”

As with all the closures, the cancellations send disaster in waves throughout the economy. Event venues are now shuttered, their employees facing unemployment. Caterers have no work. Photographers, bakers, clothing designers, everyone involved in this industry is now facing bankruptcy and a crash that they will not recover from for months to years, if ever.

When it comes to something like the Wuhan virus, rational people do a cost-benefit analysis and apply some common sense. It makes no sense to destroy the entire worldwide economy because of a disease that is not going to be much worse than a typical flu season, especially because like the flu COVID-19 focuses most of its worst attacks against the older very sick population. The bulk of the population fights it off with no problem, and goes on living.

Now however we have decided to not allow that, even if the disease does them no harm. They must starve instead.

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Economic index experienced biggest crash ever due to Wuhan panic

1:16 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: The index of leading economic indicators experienced the biggest crash in March in its sixty year history, all due to the shutdowns imposed by the government in panic over the Wuhan flu.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) tumbled 6.7% last month, the largest decrease in the series’ 60-year history. Data for February was revised down to show the index falling 0.2% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index dropping 7.0% in March.

“The sharp drop in the LEI reflects the sudden halting in business activity as a result of the global pandemic and suggests the U.S. economy will be facing a very deep contraction,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board in Washington.

I continue to find it strange that these stories about the crashing economy are being reported in very few places. This is real news, effecting millions, unlike COVID-19.

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First manned Dragon flight scheduled for May 27th

10:30 am

Capitalism in space: NASA today officially announced May 27, 2020 as the scheduled launch date for the first manned Dragon flight to ISS, the first time American astronauts will fly from American soil on an American rocket in an American spacecraft since the shuttle was retired almost a decade ago.

The launch is set for 4:32 pm (Eastern), and I am sure will be live streams by both NASA and SpaceX.

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Space radiation may increase risk of cancer

8:59 am

Using mice and models, scientists have concluded that humans who spend long periods in space, exposed to its radiation, will have a 3% higher risk for cancer.

A team led by researchers at Colorado State University and Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, which is part of the National Institutes for Health, used a novel approach to test assumptions in a model used by NASA to predict these health risks. Based on the NASA model, the team found that astronauts will have more than a three percent risk of dying of cancer from the radiation exposures they will receive on a Mars mission. That level of risk exceeds what is considered acceptable. [emphasis mine]

And how did they come to this conclusion?

…For the study, Weil and first author Dr. Elijah Edmondson, a veterinary pathologist and researcher based at the Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research in Maryland, used a unique stock of genetically diverse mice, mimicking a human population. Mice were divided into three groups with the first group receiving no radiation exposure and the other two receiving varying levels of exposure.

Edmondson, who conducted the research while completing a veterinary residency in pathology at CSU, said that for this type of research project, genetic variability is crucial. “Humans are very genetically diverse,” he explained. “You want to model that when it’s appropriate and feasible to do so.”

Weil said although the research team saw different tumor types, similar to humans, but the heavy ions did not cause any unique types of cancer. They also saw differences by sex. In humans, women are more susceptible to radiation-induced cancers than men; one of the main reasons is that women live longer, allowing sufficient time for cancer to develop. In assessing the cancer risk between male and female mice in the study, scientists said the findings parallel human data.

Edmondson said the study validates the NASA model to measure cancer risks for humans from space radiation.

In a sense, this study is junk. First, it discovers the obvious (radiation increases your chances of getting cancer). Second, it is too model-dependent, so assigning any precise percentage to that increase in humans is absurd, especially when based on a sample comprised of mice.

Third, and most important, it completely forgets the reality that life is risk, exploration is dangerous, and to do great things you need to take greater chances. That NASA concludes these questionable numbers are unacceptable means that NASA will never send humans anywhere beyond Earth orbit. Ever.

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Chang’e-4 and Yutu-2 reactivated for 17th lunar day on Moon’s surface

8:40 am

Engineers have reactivated both the lander Chang’e-4 and the rover Yutu-2 for their seventeenth lunar day on the far side of the Moon.

The report comes from the state-run Chinese press, so of course, it provides no useful new information other than what I wrote above. It did have this bit of Chinese propaganda, however:

The Chang’e-4 mission embodies China’s hope to combine wisdom in space exploration with four payloads developed by the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and Saudi Arabia. [emphasis mine]

China’s wisdom sure did everyone a lot of good in Wuhan, didn’t it?

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Homebuilding market crashes due to Wuhan virus

9:18 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the Commerce Department, housing starts plunged 22.3% in the past month, the largest such decline since 1984, due to the Wuhan flu shutdowns imposed by state governments .

Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8% in the first quarter, which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since 1947. They say the massive fiscal package will likely provide little cushion for the economy.

“The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall, the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy. The worst is yet to come.” [emphasis mine]

Once again, waiting two or three or four more weeks to release us from house arrest does not mean that the economy will simply come back to life then. Once businesses crash, it can take a long time to recover.

The lack of perspective astonishes me. We are going to bankrupt ourselves and bring on a Great Depression over a new disease this year that is comparable to the annual flu season.

Want to continue social distancing? Sure. Want people to wash their hands a lot? Sure. Wear masks? If you think it necessary, sure.

Shut down all business transactions so that millions become jobless and whole industries go bankrupt? Over this? That’s insane. Not only will such a economy crash cause far more suffering and deaths, it will make it far more difficult to fight the disease.

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Clothing and cotton sales plummet 50% due to Wuhan panic

9:06 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the clothing and cotton industry has seen a 50% plunge in sales in the past month due to Wuhan panic.

The result?

As countries worldwide take measures to slow the spread of coronavirus by quarantining people and closing nonessential businesses, sales of cotton — and the clothing and textiles made from it — have declined sharply.

Demand for cotton is so low that even though prices hit their lowest levels in more than a decade, retailers and manufacturing facilities around the world are cancelling orders. “Every stage of the supply chain is getting hit,” said Jon Devine, senior economist for Cotton Incorporated, a nonprofit industry organization based in North Carolina. “Retailers are suffering,” he said. “In between, you’ve got all the manufacturers that are trying to get their orders cancelled. And then you get all the way back to the field. Farmers are entering their planting time. They have some difficult decisions to make.”

In other words, even if we get the country reopened in May (something that right now looks unlikely because of the desire of politicians to crush the economy and cancel the Bill of Rights in order to hurt Trump), this crash now is going to spiral into next year.

I should note that the stories on the crashing economy that I am posting are very easy to find. More to come. Sadly, I have had to widen my searches to more business related sources to find them. In more sane times, a business crash like this would be front page news on every news outlet in the country. Not now. We have gone insane.

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Five million more applied for unemployment benefits last week

6:09 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves: More than five million people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a jump caused almost entirely by the government shutdown nationwide.

That brings total claims over the four weeks ended April 11 to nearly 22 million workers, erasing the entirety of labor market gains since the 2008 financial crisis, a stunning sign of the colossal economic damage inflicted by the virus outbreak. Before the pandemic, the largest number of Americans to seek jobless aid in a four-week stretch was 2.7 million in the fall of 1982.

With a labor force that totals about 162 million people, that brings the unemployment rate close to 13 percent.

That exceeds the 10 percent peak during the worst of the Great Recession more than a decade ago and tops the previous post-World War II high of 10.8 percent in 1982, bringing the U.S. closer to Depression-era levels of unemployment. A growing number of economists have warned the so-called “Great Lockdown” will push the global economy into the worst recession since the Great Depression.

This by the way is only the beginning. If businesses are not allowed to open in the next week or so, the cascade of new job loses will make these numbers seem tiny.

But hey, we have to prevent even one death from COVID-19, no matter what the cost, even though its overall impact remains comparable to the annual flu.

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