The Sun goes boom again!
On Monday NOAA posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, showing the sunspot activity for the Sun in January. As I do every month, I am posting it here, below the fold, with annotations.
January was the most active month for sunspots this entire solar cycle, exceeding the predictions of the solar scientists, an event that has been quite rare during this generally weak solar maximum. In fact, the Sun was so active that for the first time, the second peak in a double-peaked solar maximum exceeded the first peak in sunspot activity.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The red curve is their revised May 2009 prediction.
The activity in January is not the end, either. Data for February suggests that the next update in a month will see even higher numbers.
All this activity is the direct result of the Sun’s southern hemisphere flipping the polarity of its magnetic field. The northern hemisphere already flipped its magnetic field back in 2011/2012 when we had the first peak, which is why almost all the sunspots we see these days are in the southern hemisphere. See this article for an excellent explanation of this process.
We are still in a relatively weak solar maximum, but for the first time in years the Sun is almost producing sunspots at a more normal level, which also suggests that the Sun will not enter a long term Grand Minimum, a period of decades with no sunspots, when it ramps down to minimum in the next few years. However, that is pure speculation on my part. What will actually happen in the next solar cycle is completely unknown at this time.
Meanwhile, the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have once again revised their prediction after the fact. Here is a screen capture of what they said last month, with their prediction for the summer of 2013 (about 8 months ago) highlighted in yellow:
A sunspot maximum of 67 in the summer of 2013. Below is their prediction now:
A sunspot maximum of 69 in the summer of 2013. Pretty good, eh? They can predict something after it happened, and even revise their prediction!
I suspect that what they are doing is giving us the average number for activity, and with the activity so high in January it boosted the overall average. Though this might be a more accurate description of the on-going solar maximum, it is not a prediction, as they call it. It would be nice, and more ethical scientifically, if they fixed this.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Thanks for keeping us updated.
Look at what NASA and the Russian Space Projects have Done in the last 13 years. they have Sent probes Into a Star Something that Never should have been Tampered With.
Well. There is No Going Back. What is Done is Done. now Die with It.