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An Italian court has convicted seven earthquake scientists of manslaughter for their failure to properly warn the public prior to the L’Aquila earthquake.

An Italian court has convicted seven earthquake scientists of manslaughter for their failure to properly warn the public prior to the L’Aquila earthquake.

The court also sentenced the men to six years in prison, which is two years more than the prosecutor recommended.

The more I have read about this case, the less I have been in sympathy with the scientists. While it is absurd to expect any scientist to be able to precise predict the occurrence of an earthquake, in this case some of the individuals convicted had issued statements that actually go against basic earthquake science in order to give the public a false sense of safety. They claimed that the increased level of seismic activity suggested a reduction in the risk of an earthquake, when all research actually indicates the exact opposite.

Some additional details here.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


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"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

3 comments

  • JGL

    Stupid and ignorant seem such inadequate words, dangerous and Galilean seems a better fit.

  • Patrick Ritchie

    From what I have read I don’t think this statement is accurate:

    They claimed that the increased level of seismic activity suggested a reduction in the risk of an earthquake, when all research actually indicates the exact opposite.

    See this source:

    http://www.ess.washington.edu/SEIS/PNSN/INFO_GENERAL/eq_prediction.html

    Even in areas where foreshocks are fairly common, there is no way of distinguishing a foreshock from an independent earthquake.

    Convicting 7 people of Manslaughter is likely to have negative ramifications throughout Italy, both in science and in public safety. Manslaughter is “a defendant intentionally puts himself in a position where he will be unaware of facts which would render him liable”.

    The city of L’Aquila has been largely destroyed by earthquakes twice in the past 500 years or so. While the public officials and scientists involved may have failed to translate that reality into a rational public policy, I fail to see how that translates to Manslaughter.

  • Research might point in both directions, but it does appear that at least one individual made unsubstantiated comments about the amount of risks that should not have been made. And that individual was part of a commission whose sole purpose was to tell the public what the risks were.

    At the same time, I agree that the charges and conviction are overkill. There are far better ways to deal with incompetence than prison.

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