Year: 2024

China to attempt 100 launches in 2024

9:47 am

China’s state-run press today announced that the country will attempt 100 launches in 2024, a number that includes launches from official government space agencies as well as a number of pseudo-companies that are supervised closely by that government.

This prediction now gives us a reasonably complete list of predictions from all the major players in the international launch market. Adding them all together, that market is predicting it will complete 366 launches in 2024, a number that would be 58% higher than the record set last year of 213 successful launches in a single year.

Will it happen? Not likely. Every one of those players routinely overstates its goals from year to year. For example, Russia’s numbers are always vastly high, with this year predicting 40 launches, a number that country hasn’t achieved in almost three decades.

At the same time, both China and SpaceX, the biggest players in this market, have been very good in recent years of predicting their output, only slightly missing their stated goals.

Based on these facts, it remains distinctly possible that the world’s global rocket industry will complete more than 300 successful launches in 2024, a number that is more three times higher than the average number of launches per year from the dawn of the space age in 1957 through 2021.

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SLIM survives lunar night!

9:33 am

SLIM's view after surviving lunar night
Click for original image.

Japan’s space agency JAXA yesterday announced in a tweet that its SLIM lunar lander had survived the harsh lunar night, and that engineers had resumed communications.

The picture to the right was taken after communications were resumed. It shows SLIM’s view of 885-foot-wide Shioli Crater, the opposite rim the bright ridge in the upper right about a thousand feet away. From this news report:

The mission team received telemetry from SLIM around 5:00 a.m. Eastern (1000 UTC). The temperature of the communication equipment was extremely high, according to JAXA, due to the sun being high over the landing area. Communication was terminated after only a short period of time, JAXA stated.

The SLIM team is however now preparing to conduct observations with SLIM’s multiband spectroscopic camera (MBC) later in the lunar day. MBC is designed to ascertain the composition of the lunar surface and could provide insights into the moon’s history. Sunset over Shioli crater, on the rim of which SLIM landed, will occur Feb. 29.

Surviving the long lunar night is a major achievement. It means Japan’s technology here is capable of doing long missions on the Moon.

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LRO locates and photographs Odysseus on lunar surface

9:21 am

Overview map
Click for original LRO image of Odysseus

Scientists using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) this weekend located and photographed Intuitive Machines’ Odysseus Nova-C lunar lander at a height of 56 miles during its first orbit over the site.

The inset in the map to the right shows the lander, with the white dot marking its landing site, several miles to the south of the planned landing site, as indicated by the yellow dot.

Odysseus came to rest at 80.13 degrees south latitude, 1.44 degrees east longitude, 8,461 feet (2,579 meters) elevation, within a degraded one-kilometer diameter crater where the local terrain is sloped at 12 degrees.

That slope could by itself explain why the lander tipped over and ended up on its side. First, it landed faster than planned. Second, Intuitive Machines designed this Nova-C lander with a relatively tall configuration, which gives it a high center of gravity. Hitting the ground fast and on such a slope could easily have been enough for momentum to tilt it over after touchdown.

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SpaceX launches 24 Starlink satellites

10:13 pm

SpaceX today successfully launched another 24 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral.

The first stage completed its thirteenth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

18 SpaceX
9 China
2 Iran
2 India
2 Rocket Lab
2 Japan
2 Russia

American private enterprise now leads the entire world combined 21 to 17 in successful launches, while SpaceX by itself now leads the the rest of the world (excluding other American companies) 18 to 17.

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Odysseus is on its side, some antennas blocked

11:30 pm

It appears the reason communications with Intuitive Machines’ Odysseus lunar lander has been so difficult since its landing yesterdary is that something caused it to fall over so that it is now lying on its side, blocking some of its antennas.

Intuitive Machines initially believed its six-footed lander, Odysseus, was upright after Thursday’s touchdown. But CEO Steve Altemus said Friday the craft “caught a foot in the surface,” falling onto its side and, quite possibly, leaning against a rock. He said it was coming in too fast and may have snapped a leg. “So far, we have quite a bit of operational capability even though we’re tipped over,” he told reporters.

But some antennas were pointed toward the surface, limiting flight controllers’ ability to get data down, Altemus said. The antennas were stationed high on the 14-foot (4.3-meter) lander to facilitate communications at the hilly, cratered and shadowed south polar region.

Its exact location also appears to be several miles from its intended landing site next to the crater Malapart A. Scientists who operate Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) hope orbital images this weekend will identify the spacecraft’s precise location.

The company also revealed that the reason its own laser guidance system would not function — requiring a quick software patch allowing the spacecraft to use a different NASA system — was because “a switch was not flipped before flight.”

Because of this switch in navigation equipment it was decided to cancel the release of the student-built camera probe dubbed Eaglecam that was supposed to be released when Odysseus was about 100 feet above the surface and take images of the landing. Instead, it is now hoped it can be released post landing and get far enough away to look back and capture photos of the lander.

All these problems however do not make this mission a failure. Like Japan’s SLIM lander, the primary goal of this mission was to demonstrate the technology for softlanding an unmanned spacecraft on the Moon. Intuitive Machines has succeeded in this goal. Though obviously some changes must be made to improve this engineering, the success with Odysseus strongly suggests the next mission later this year will do far better.

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Mars’ flaky rocks

12:14 pm

Mars' flaky rocks
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on February 21, 2024 by the high resolution camera on the Mars rover Curiosity. It once again shows us a very typical many layered rock that the rover has seen routinely in Gale Crater and in the foothills of Mount Sharp.

The long flake tells us many things. First, Mars’ one-third Earth gravity, thin atmosphere, and lack of life allows such flakes to survive. On Earth not only would wind and rain break such delicate forms, plant life would eat away at it as well.

Second, the many thin layers tell us again that Mars’ geological history comprises many cycles and geological events, each of which placed another layer down. The many layers here could actually be evidence of year-by-year events, much like tree-rings detail the drought conditions yearly on Earth.

It will take study on Mars however to find out. These image only tantalize. They cannot give answers.

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How park volunteers in Tucson illustrated the growing resentment to unjustified authority

11:23 am

Forest Service discovers it ain't our lord and master
Forest Service discovers it ain’t
our lord and master

Recently the National Forest Service suspended its agreement with a volunteer organization, the Santa Catalina Volunteer Patrol, which had unpaid volunteers wear a forest service uniform with a volunteer patch, rather than a badge, and patrol within Sabino Canyon and other Forest Service trails near Tucson, answering questions for the public.

The reasons why the volunteer patrol was suspended were not described initially, except for vague statements that the volunteers needed “retraining.”

This drastic action is needed because we have patrollers not following our Forest Service Agreement, and any additional violations will result in our charter being removed. All patrollers will be required to go through retraining.

This past weekend that suspension was lifted, with the announcement giving a better explanation as to the cause of the suspension.
» Read more

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Vast to compete with Axiom for NASA’s limited slots for commercial manned missions to ISS

9:40 am

The private space station company Vast, the only one presently building its own space station without a NASA contract, has now announced that it intends to to compete with Axiom for the limited docking slots NASA has made available for commercial manned tourist missions to ISS.

During a panel discussion at the Federal Aviation Administration Commercial Space Transportation Conference Feb. 21, Max Haot, chief executive of Vast, said his company would bid on the fifth and sixth private astronaut missions, or PAMs, that NASA offers to companies seeking to flying commercial missions to the ISS. “From our point of view, it will make us a better space station builder, a better partner of NASA, and it will help us practice a lot of the disciplines we are building” for its future commercial stations, he said of Vast’s plan to bid on the missions.

Up until now, Axiom has had no competition for those limited docking opportunities, has flown two missions, with a third planned for this fall. All it needed to do is negotiate the rental fees with NASA for using ISS. Now NASA will need to open up bidding for those slots. Its job is not to play favorites, but to instead make its taxpayer-funded facilities available to as many private companies as possible. Whether it will do so is at present unclear.

Vast’s own space station, a single module to be launched on SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy, dubbed Haven-1, is scheduled for launch next year according to Vast officials. If so (assuming SpaceX’s rocket is operational by then), Vast will be the first private space station in orbit, beating Axiom and the two consortiums building Orbital Reef and Starlab. And it will have done it without taxpayer money.

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Webb: Infrared data sees neutron star remaining after 1987 supernova, the nearest in more than 4 centuries

9:29 am

Webb's infrared view of Supernova 1987a
Click for original image.

Using the Webb Space Telescope, astronomers have obtained infrared data that confirms the existence of a neutron star at the location of Supernova 1987a, located in the Large Magellanic Cloud, the nearest such supernova in more than four centuries and the only one visible to the naked eye since the invention of the telescope.

Indirect evidence for the presence of a neutron star at the center of the remnant has been found in the past few years, and observations of much older supernova remnants — such as the Crab Nebula — confirm that neutron stars are found in many supernova remnants. However, no direct evidence of a neutron star in the aftermath of SN 1987A (or any other such recent supernova explosion) had been observed, until now.

…Spectral analysis of the [Webb] results showed a strong signal due to ionized argon from the center of the ejected material that surrounds the original site of SN 1987A. Subsequent observations using Webb’s NIRSpec (Near-Infrared Spectrograph) IFU at shorter wavelengths found even more heavily ionized chemical elements, particularly five times ionized argon (meaning argon atoms that have lost five of their 18 electrons). Such ions require highly energetic photons to form, and those photons have to come from somewhere.

That “somewhere” has to be a neutron star, based on present theories. The image above shows three different Webb views of Supernova 1987a, with the one on the lower right suggesting the existence of a point source at the center of the supernova remnant. In the left image the circular ring of bright spots is an older ring of dust and material that has been lit up by the crash of the explosive material (as indicated in blue at the center) flung out from the star when it went supernova and collapsed into a neutron star. That wave of explosive material took several decades to reach the ring and enflame it.

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SpaceX and China complete launches

9:11 am

Both SpaceX and China today successfully completed launches.

First, SpaceX launched 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage flew its 19th mission, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Pacific, and tying the record for the most flights for a Falcon 9 booster.

Then, China launched a classified military satellite using its biggest rocket, the Long March 5, lifting off from its coastal spaceport in Wenchang. It remains unclear if China now has the ability to restart the engines on that rocket’s core stage, which reaches orbit, is large enough to survive re-entry, and has previously crashed uncontrolled, with one return barely missing the New York metropolitan area. If not, then this core stage carries a threat, as will the four or so other launches of the Long March 5 that China plans later this year.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

17 SpaceX
9 China
2 Iran
2 India
2 Rocket Lab
2 Japan
2 Russia

American private enterprise presently leads the entire world combined 20 to 17 in successful launches, while SpaceX by itself is tied 17-17 with the rest of the world (excluding other American companies).

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