Could Japan’s Hayabusa-2 next target asteroid be instead a failed Soviet Mars probe?
Artist rendering of Phobos-1 in orbit around Mars
Scientists reviewing the data known about the asteroid 1998 KY26, the next goal of Japan’s Hayabusa-2 asteroid probe, now speculate that it might not be an asteroid at all but could instead be the failed Soviet Mars probe, Phobos-1.
The researchers came up with this possibility due to 1998 KY26 small size, its inexplicable orbital shifts, and the fact that its solar orbit closely matches that of Phobos-1 after it failed to enter Mars orbit when a mistyped command shut down its systems.
Hibberd points out that the 10-metre (32.8ft) span of its solar panels matches the estimated size of 1998 KY26 and that the craft would be expected to have a high albedo. The non-gravitational acceleration of the object would be explained by solar radiation pressure as sunlight reflects off the probe’s shiny metallic surfaces.
For the interplanetary trajectory of Phobos 1 to fit the measured orbit of 1998 KY26, the probe would need to have subsequently fired its rocket twice, say the team: once on 2 September 1988 (shortly after contact was lost) and then again on 19 May 1996. This isn’t impossible for a malfunctioning spacecraft and there is some evidence that Phobos 1 did indeed fire its rocket without being commanded.
The last supposition, that the spacecraft fired its engines on its own, is the most implausible part of this theory, but not impossible.
Hayabusa-2 is scheduled to arrive at 1998 KY26 in 2031, assuming its last ion thruster does not fail. We shall then find out if this wild theory is right. If so, the probe will have an entirely different job. Rather than studying a very small asteroid, it will be studying a piece of human space history.
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