Scientists rally to observe the Falcon 9 that will hit the Moon on August 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026 at precisely 2:35 am (Easten), the upper stage used by the Falcon 9 rocket that launched in 2025 the Blue Ghost and Hakuto-R lunar landers will impact the Moon.
Scientists have now published a paper [pdf], outlining the details of that impact and calling on the astronomical community, both professional and amateur, to conduct observations. The image to the right, showing the location on the Moon where the impact will occur, comes from Figure 1 of the paper. From the paper’s conclusion:
The upcoming Falcon 9 upper stage impact on the Moon on 2026 August 5, presents an ideal opportunity for observers in the Americas and space-based assets to study a significant lunar impact in real time. Potential observables from this event include the flash at the time of impact (likely lasting less than a second) and the ejecta plume (lasting minutes to tens of minutes) Although some specifics of the impact (such as its precise visual magnitude) remain unclear due to the complexity of the physical processes involved, this event is an ideal opportunity to calibrate measurements of flash brightness and plume dynamics against a known event, should either be detected.
This event also provides an opportunity to test pipelines for measuring flash properties to locate impact events seismically, and to better understand the multi-modal hazards posed to future lunar infrastructure and astronauts from space debris impacting the Moon. It also provides an opportunity to test our capability to monitor the cislunar environment. Given the renewed interest in the lunar exploration, the impact of artificial bodies on the Moon could is almost certain to become more frequent. To avoid uncontrolled increases in the amount of space debris in lunar orbit (as is the case now in low Earth orbit), advancing monitoring of cislunar space from ground- and space-based facilities will be key.
The scientists note that the impact will occur at night when the Moon is visible in South America and in the low and mid-latitudes of North America. Though the impact flash could be as bright as magnitude 3 (thus visible to the naked eye), its location during the lunar day will likely make it too faint for ordinary observers. They say that a telescope will be needed, that binoculars will not be sufficient.
The paper is also very enlightening in that it provides a detailed history of past observed lunar impacts, both natural and artificial.
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The stated time of impact on August 5th — 11:35 PM, Pacific (is that Standard or Daylight Saving?) — is suspect in that the just before last quarter moon does not rinse until around 11:50 here in this part of Florida according to both the online almanac and my Stellarium planetarium program.
If this is the correct time of impact, then it cannot be observed from here in the southern United States as stated.
Can someone please provide the actual predicted time of impact and / or where the event might actually be seen?
I might have miscalculated the time from UT, which is 6:35. If someone can check my numbers and correct, I’d be grateful.
Eastern Daylight Time, EDT= UT – 4 hr. So assuming the impact time UT=0635 is correct, Milt’s Florida impact time will be 2:35 AM EDT.
The moon will have risen (Bertha permitting) at least 40 deg above the eastern horizon by then.
Thank you. I am revising my post.
You can use the heavens-above.com website to generate a sky map of your location at any time in the future. From my location near Atlanta, the moon will be just over 33 degrees above the horizon in Ares, just east of the Great Square of Pegasus.
Hummmm. Could this mean that this event will be just before the moon sets in daylight? I may have missed that part.
Do these people not realize how childish they are to want other people to care about the fact that things fall down? It’s called gravity. Isn’t that like 4th grade stuff? These people want to be paid ($$$) to observe gravity.
A better waste of time would be to send another toy to mars. First it was a toy helicopter. Next time it could be a toy slinky.
You obviously picked the wrong ‘B’ site to post on. I think you were intending this for Bluesky.
Thanks to all for your help. This is something that many of us will be trying to observe in our telescopes, and I am looking forward to viewing this rare event.
BTW, if it weren’t for amateur astronomers — I believe Japanese in this case — NASA might still be claiming that meteor impacts “can’t be seen on the moon.” (Our satellite is dead, and “nothing ever happens there.”) Sort of like the idea that “stones can’t fall from the sky.”
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-e&q=japanes+amateur+astronomers+and+meteor+impacts+on+the+moon
” Next time it could be a toy slinky.”
Dude, that would be awesome. With modern metallurgy, maybe Slinky’s® could do fun tricks, especially in 0.3 g. You could have ‘Slink-Offs’ down some of the major Martian canyon’s walls. More money to be made.