December 1, 2016 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast
Embedded below the fold. The first half was devoted almost entirely in a discussion of the sad state of the Russian space program.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
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Embedded below the fold. The first half was devoted almost entirely in a discussion of the sad state of the Russian space program.
Readers!
Every February I run a fund-raising drive during my birthday month. This year I celebrate my 72nd birthday, and hope and plan to continue writing and posting on Behind the Black for as long as I am able.
I hope my readers will support this effort. As I did in my November fund-raising drive, I am offering autographed copies of my books for large donations. Donate $250 and you can have a choice of the hardback of either Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 or Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space. Donate $200 and you can get an autographed paperback copy of either.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Hope ULA extends their “Sim Rocket” to include Rideshare for secondary payloads. Tt opens up the low end spaceflight market. They seem to have become the world leader in the 2nd PL market and prices come down to six or five figures. It’s not just for cubesats, they have options for any size up to primary payload size and including chemical propulsion to get to an independent orbit. I think that this could make life very hard for dedicated small launchers. Here’s a FISO telecon where ULA presents Rideshare, soundfile and slides:
http://spirit.as.utexas.edu/~fiso/telecon/Stender_3-30-16/
Concerning Russian economy, it depends on raw materials and weapons systems. I can’t find anything to buy in shops which is manufactured in Russia, although it’s a big neighboring country (but I won a Soviet made chess clock from a local chess club).
So Putin needs oil prices to go up to $100 again. Hard to accomplish with “New Oil” coming so strongly. Saudi tried to take out US shale oil by dumping prices, but has failed. Only way for Russia to get oil prices high again is to take out Saudi oil with a war. (And war is good for Russian arms exports too). Repeating Saddam Hussein’s Gulf War, but instead of Kuwait, taking Saudi’s oil, which happens to be concentrated at the shia dominated Gulf coast. Russia is closely allied with Iran which has very successfully conqured Iraq thanks to their shia arab majority. A 100,000 strong Iran led shia militia with US tanks and arms is now being officially recognized as a second Iraqi army. Russian air force and elite airborne troops is perfectly complementary to Iran’s huge ground forces.
Russia is also building an alliance with Egypt, drilling its airborne troops there and is rumoured to get a naval base there too as they already have in Syria. Egypt has imported all its oil from Saudi, but Saudi recently broke that stopped all deliveries. Turkey is suddenly also very friendly with Putin. Saudi is at war with Iranian controlled Yemen. Now that Clinton isn’t there to protect Saudi with US blood and bombs, and the low oil price is hurting Saudi economy very badly, with welfare cuts threatening the “Arabic spring” rebellions to get hold there too, timing is good for a war against Saudi with fronts in the east, in the northeast, in the west and in the south. Saudi spends more on the military than Russia does, but their war in Yemen has been a pathetic failure and look like an easy target.
Putin has very efficiently taken advantage of the US failure in the Middle East, and has obviously done so in order to control oil prices. It would take some time for shale oil to fill in for Saudi’s 10 million barrels per day. I don’t think that Putin sent his Atlantic carrier fleet group to the Eastern Mediterranean recently just in order to bomb some irrelevant rebel group in Syria. I think he aims higher than that. He looks very well prepared to save the Russian economy.