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Flu deaths appear to be plummeting as COVID-19 arrives

Sarah Hoyt has published a very revealing analysis of the CDC numbers of the on-going 2019-2020 flu season.

The graphs, which are astonishing, show two trends, one somewhat expected, the other completely a surprise. You should definitely go to the link to see.

First, this flu season there is a giant uptick in people seeing their doctor because of flu symptoms. Though the big rise in doctor visits began in December, when COVID-19 first began to make the news, the trend did began well before its appearance, making the uptick somewhat puzzling.

The second trend makes that uptick even more baffling. It appears that in the last four weeks the number of deaths because of flu and pneumonia has plummeted, dropping to far below any numbers for the past five years. As Hoyt notes at the link,

BTW the author and I had several “people who know better than us” look at the charts, and it remains a mystery. No, we don’t know what’s going on. We know it makes no sense.

I suspect the drop in deaths is connected to the high level of concern by the general population, causing them to get treatment earlier so that many who would have died in past seasons don’t. I also suspect that this data also confirms the relatively minor impact so far of COVID-19 overall. As the author notes,

As to conclusions, there isn’t enough data for any concrete conclusion. Looking at this logically, IF there have been COVID-19 cases in the US since December, it doesn’t appear to have been deadly enough to have been very noticeable.

This data is very preliminary, has great uncertainties. Nonetheless, it suggests once again that the panic over the Wuhan flu is way out of line.

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35 comments

  • James Street

    I appreciate coming to your site and getting facts amid all the hype. Thanks.
    I wonder if the dramatic drop this year also is because of the shelter-at-home and self-isolation.

  • F16 Guy

    And yet, these are the headlines getting all the attention:
    Drudge Report: FAUCI PROJECTS ‘100,000-200,000’ DEAD
    NO CITY WILL BE SPARED

    Various:
    US COVID-19 deaths double in 2 days, topping 2,000

    Either we have a problem,
    “Flu deaths appear to be plummeting as COVID-19 arrives”
    or we don’t. Where does the truth lie?

  • F16 Guy: See my comment here for at least a hint at where the truth does not lie.

  • MJMJ

    One possibility is that Wuhan virus is killing the same people who otherwise would have died of flu.

  • Andi

    Another could be that all this hand-washing and attention to hygiene is having an effect.

  • sippin_bourbon

    I am laying money on social distancing and good hygiene.

  • Cotour

    Friend sent this to me today, she surprised me that she was thinking in these terms.

    https://youtu.be/Zmlw_xVggu0

    Nothing at this level IMO is a coincidence, and if by some miracle it happens to be then there will be those who are ready to employ the “Never let a crisis go to waste” mode of operation.

    S.O.M. always lurks in the darkness of the highest levels of power.

  • Cotour

    Too funny:

    https://youtu.be/e50L3HOp_QE

    Some dark humor, enjoy.

    (Its the best therapy during trying times.)

  • pzatchok

    MJMJ is spot on.
    Its just like a flu without a vaccine yet.

  • F16 Guy

    Robert,
    Thanks for that link. I came upon this link that is from a financial site (Seeking Alpha), and the author (no idea who he is or what his credentials are), inter twines COVID 19 with financial prognostications. Are his numbers accurate and if not, why such scare tactics?
    * First, this is not influenza (the “flu”). It’s actually a novel variant of SARS. The proper name of this virus is SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), and the associated disease is called COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019).
    * It’s common to quote a 2% fatality rate, but the observed case fatality rate (CFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is actually now 4.5% (fatalities/reported cases). By comparison, the fatality rate of the seasonal flu is just 0.13%.
    *Unless SARS-CoV-2 suddenly goes dormant, we’re not all going back to work in April. Not without immediately rekindling the growth rate of cases, with hundreds of thousands of U.S. fatalities and – if we’re not serious about this – substantially more than that.

    It appears that many of these COVID 19 models are about as accurate as MMGW models and presidential polls are.
    I rely on BTB to bring us the truth! Stay healthy, all.

  • F16 Guy: The fake death rate you quote is one of the reasons our society has gone insane. It is based on the very very very incomplete number of “reported cases” and thus tells us nothing. It also hides the reality that almost all the deaths that have occurred are among the elderly who are already sick for other reasons, meaning their immune systems are compromised.

    To use it as a criteria for any response, or to even refer to it as a fact, is an example of disinformation.

  • Cotour

    A little more from the real world:

    In trying times, the Left leaning among us are loosing their cookies! Specifically the ladies.

    Yesterday a young lady that I communicate with, big “Progressive”, tells me………..she is thinking of getting a firearm, she is terrified.

    Just now another lady that I know who is a friend and a customer, tends to be more reasonably Liberal to some degree not really a hard liner, comes to the counter with tears in her eyes and a quivering voice.

    “Its bad…. I don’t know what’s going to happen…….Im all alone………. I afraid”. She asked me “Can I come live with you?” And she is serious.

    Its like talking people off a ledge.

    My first direction for them? STOP WATCHING THE MEDIA! The media is not your friend. The media is not going to tell you anything that you do not already know. This alone time with themselves is feeding the fear monster within. This is biological event is an unknown and there in fear is grown. And then you compound that with not working or no longer having a job / cash flow and the fear monster has all he needs.

    So the fear is understandable but IMO this will all slowly incrementally work out in the coming weeks and months and we will adapt and survive.

    And that is what is happening in the real world.

  • wayne

    “How To Tell If We’re Beating COVID-19”
    Minute Physics
    March 27, 2020
    https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc
    7:15

  • Cotour

    This day, 3/30/20, must be a critical mass moment for Liberal ladies of America.

    Just had another one, the same, tears, voice, terrified.

    Very interesting.

  • Lee S

    Boots on the ground report from Sweden… My fever has returned… Once again intermittent, no higher than mid to upper 30’s, slight shortness of breath, and generally feeling crappy, with an intermittent but violent cough. I actually wish the fever would hit me like it keeps threatening, so could get it over with.
    I ventured down to the store to collect essential supplies …. Whisky and paracetamol… I actually wore one of my 3M builders masks. ( More to protect everyone else!). I was in no way alone in mask wearing, however, we still have no “cower in place” rules… The store still had full shelves, everyone standing in line a little further apart, but no longer lines than in normal times, there are still customers in the local Chinese resteraunt, admittedly sitting further apart than normal, and life goes on pretty much as normal.
    I am currently self medicating with Irish hot toddies… Irish whiskey ( Jameson’s) , hot water and honey, with a lump of fresh lemon studded with star cloves. It’s certainly good for the throat, and it certainly has one proven medical effect… In high enough doses it aids sleep!

  • Lee S

    And Bob, I still think it’s a little out of order of you to keep offering an opinion on medical matters until the evidence is in.
    I am in 2 minds regarding our “experiment” here in Sweden on herd immunity, I would rather not be an unwilling member in such an experiment, but I choose to live here… So it is what it is. However, given the science is still out on this, we simply do not have enough data points to draw a reasonable conclusion on the final outcome of this pandemic.
    I think you are disingenuous to only cherrypick articles to report upon which back your opinion. There are also many studies which predict the outcome could be very much worse than the ones you post. ( I might add this post is more of an opinion piece than study…. Has anyone peer reviewed it?) . You are a journalist, and as such have a responsibility to a certain amount of impartiality. I understand this will always be a right wing centric blog, and don’t go changing in that respect. ( It makes for great conversation ), but to keep banging the drum for an outcome neither I nor you have have any idea about, to your own agenda, is simply wrong.

  • Ian C.

    Cotour,

    Since plenty of readers on this site, our host Bob included, could be called corona skeptics, let me try another approach to let y’all see the light.

    Instead of denying or downplaying it, I want you to embrace and celebrate corona. Where is corona burning through the most? Democrat-voting cities like NYC, LA, SF, Seattle and other sanctuary hellholes. Who is outdoors in parks and clubs celebrating their “lives” and spreading it among their kind? Young urban liberals with blue hair and woke opinions. Look on social media who’s already losing their minds just after a couple of days staying indoors? Empty people who (if you read their social media accounts) hate Trump, America, the West, freedom — and especially themselves.
    In the past we were drafted to war and were crippled or slaughtered at the frontlines to fight against Nazis or Communists. Today we’re asked to sit on a couch and wait it out. This is our easiest war against the enemies of the West. I’d name it the comfy war. Are you comfy?

  • Lee S

    @Cotour, I know this is unusual… But I must disagree with you! :-)
    The answer is not to “stop watching media”… The answer is to watch, or even better read a well balanced diet of media… Read the left, the right, the centerist, indeed, I even recommend reading or watching Al Jazeera to get an arabcentric view, read the science websites…. Suck it all in… Then you are in a position to draw a decent conclusion, or even to decide there is no conclusion just yet. I know this isn’t easy to tell the crying lady who is frightened out of her life, but Bob’s advice would be “don’t be scared… Everything is just fine” , my advice would be “be careful, don’t panic, just be sensible, wash your hands often, and you will probably be just fine”… I know your crazy left wing media’s advice is “run around screaming, the sky is falling in” ( unlike our left wing media…. But we’ve had this discussion before ). The genuine answer to this situation is education, and a little caution.

  • Lee S

    @Ian C, be careful what you wish for…. This virus seems most deadly amongst ahmm.. “older” men, who disregards the advice from WHO… it could wipe out republican voters!
    ( Only joking!) I have the same disrespect for kids who think it’s ok to ignore the very sensible advice given… I have 2 conditions that make me higher risk, and would rather not kick the bucket just yet because of the selfishness of others… Admittedly I’m only in my 40s, so I hope I just get the thing and come out the other side…. But even if I do, remember the chances of complications have been proven to be higher than the regular flu, no one knows the true death rate ( or are unwilling to say..) and as I said to Bob…. You are hardly qualified to give medical advice…..
    Stay safe!

  • Lee S

    @Ian C…. Ooops! Sorry…. I miss read you post…. Acctually, I Totally agree! a crisis which means sitting on the sofa, arguing on the internet is not the worst that could happen!
    Unfortunately I don’t have a TV… but I do have a load of educational podcasts to listen to….
    I hope you stay safe!

  • Col Beausabre

    What I understand is that no one dies directly from the common flu or the Wuhan Flu – they die from complications like pneumonia. So how do you tell that someone died from pneumonia arising from what. disease…I presume you can run blood tests to determine the original illness, but how much of that is being done. How many deaths from flu are being ascribed to Wuhan Flu is my question. It could account for the drop in one and increase in the other simply because overworked hospitals are lumping all serious respiratory illnesses as being due to Wuhan rather than the common variety. What is the figure fir fatalities from both diseases combined and how much does that deviate from “normal”….cB

  • Cotour

    Lee S:

    Not everyone is equipped to absorb all of this and digest / process it. If you have not trained yourself over a period of time to deal with this stuff, then you are going to be overloaded and the insanity is increased and not diminished.

    My learning curve and reorientation to “Truth” has been aprox. 19 plus years, not much bothers me. To begin the absorbing of all of these media content producers and properly processing it is not in the capacity of the every day human who has not really been paying attention.

    And that is exactly what the politicos and those in the media entities are feeding on. By design the media MUST have content and they are undeniably anti Trump and pump that, and pretty much the same for the politicos. They MUST have something to communicate, and more the better if it stresses Trump.

    So, I do not agree with your proposition. Although I do suggest that those who are not edumacated on the subjects at hand begin their edumaction. Better late than never, but we the people are always going to be behind the power curve no matter what.

    (I just confirmed that that relatively young man of 50 that I noted the other day in my neighborhood, did die from the virus)

  • wayne

    Lee–

    “Whisky and paracetamol.”
    –We call it acetaminophen in the States, and you should avoid mixing it with alcohol, unless that national-health of yours, pays for liver transplants!

    Tangent– Is Codeine available over the counter in Sweden? It is in Canada–(paracetamol 300mg + Codeine phosphate 15mg + Caffeine 15mg) however, due to our current futile “war on killer opiates,” it’s a 5 year Felony here.

    Let’s Go For a Drive, shall we?

    [Make a Run, for the Border]
    Crossing the Sault Ste Marie International Bridge
    The Highywayman 2012
    https://youtu.be/Xc9NOw1BN2I
    4:05

  • Dick Eagleson

    Cotour,

    That Mahmoud ElAwadi video reminds me of the old saying by, I believe, Einstein, to the effect that for every problem there is a theory that is simple, elegant, straightforward – and wrong.

    The main flaw in ElAwadi’s thesis is his apparent belief that one can generally believe any numbers coming out of China anent Covid-19. But one can’t. China is a dictatorship. The essence of dictatorship is an assertion of absolute state control at all times and about everything. Anything seen as beyond the power of the state to control threatens the basis of the ruling regime.

    Thus, Chinese claims of “control” and minimal deaths in Wuhan should be accorded no credibility. And those alleged low numbers apparently don’t square at all with statistics on cremations in Wuhan which the censors seem to have initially overlooked.

    The thing about censorship is that it is a form of lying and, as with other types of lies, it’s very difficult, in general, to keep one’s fictional story entirely straight – a problem well-understood by spies and undercover police officers. Now that the Chinese have been tipped by the West that they also need to lie about such things as cremations, they’ll probably get right on it and start doing so but this particular cat, as it is said, is already out of the bag.

    Now, that being said, El Awadi is probably still correct that the Chinese are suffering less, proportionally, from Covid-19 than are we in the West. China has a long history of generating new species of pathogens that then become pandemic in the rest of the world. As the saying goes, this ain’t China’s first rodeo.

    Given that the Chinese population has been a long-standing petri dish in which new contagions are cultured, it also stands to reason that that population would tend to be the one least affected by said serially generated afflictions. The worst historical examples of the malign effects of differential susceptibility of widely separated populations to a given disease would be the Black Death in Europe and the comparable – perhaps even worse – havoc wrought among native Americans by several diseases imported from Europe by Spanish and Portuguese explorers/conquerors. The Black Death decimated European populations that had been weakened by three centuries of lesser plagues imported to Europe by returning Crusaders. It was from this crucible of Darwinian selection that emerged the European population that emerged the “winner” of the unintended microbiological war that erupted when the New and Old Worlds met and exchanged pathogens.

    We have seen this same effect, albeit at vastly lower levels of frightfulness, many times more recently too. So-called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and related ailments were brought back to the U.S. by many veterans of both Desert Storm and the later Iraq War. These maladies seem not to have been nearly so easy to spread as is Covid-19 but they did their damage among Western military populations who had much lower natural resistance to such than did the native populations of the Middle East where these diseases are endemic. The problem was not helped in the least by the long-time obdurate refusal of the Veterans Administration to even acknowledge that these ailments were real. Chinese bureaucrats are hardly the only ones with a penchant for denying reality.

    So Mr. ElAwadi’s professed disbelief in coincidence doesn’t carry much weight. Sure, Covid-19 showed up just after China was strong-armed by Trump into a trade regime it didn’t want. But China has “exported” so many previous pathogens to the U.S. and the rest of the world in recent decades – including the vast majority of the annual and ever-changing influenza strains but also goodies like SARS and the so-called Swine Flu – that another was a virtual certainty following pretty much any political interaction between China and the U.S.

    The actual lethality of Covid-19, both in general and anent particular sub-populations/demographic groups, is far from clear given the awesomely incomplete and generally crummy nature of the statistics available to this point – even in the U.S. But even an actual 1% overall mortality rate would be an order of magnitude greater than typical influenzas and it could well be worse than that – we simply don’t know and are unlikely to in the near term.

    So my take on Covid-19 is that it’s real and worrisome but not nearly a replay of the Black Death. There do seem to be some palliative treatments that work and more will be coming soon. The lessons being administered by nature here to both the citizenry and the bureaucracy of these United states have been expensive, in the short term, but have also been useful practice for how to prepare and what to do when some future genuinely ugly pandemic arises – as it likely will.

  • Edward

    F16 Guy,
    You wrote: “It appears that many of these COVID 19 models are about as accurate as MMGW models and presidential polls are.

    Models are only as good as the information available for creating the model. For COVID19, the information is still sketchy, which means that the models are not useful enough to make policy decisions that can do far more harm than good.

    Based upon the results I have seen from various models, I have the question: if shutting down the entire American economy is a good thing to do now, as opposed to shutting down only the high risk areas as they become high risk, then why was it not good to shut down the entire economy back in January when the first case was found here? Indeed, why didn’t we shut down the economy for other outbreaks (e.g. SARS)? And if shutting down the economy is a good idea to save lives, then why don’t we do it each year to save 30,000 to 60,000 lives from flue? (I’m considering those as one question.) We do not shut down the economy in the years in which the people making the flue shots guess wrong, but for some reason it seems to be the right move this year.

    My first guess is that the reason is not that this is a medical decision but a political decision in order to cause an economic crisis that results in a president not being reelected. In this case, the president is steering into the skid, and he is coming out as the hero of the crisis.

    The model used to decide on shutting down the economy estimated that up to 200,000 could die, so we are taking drastic action due to 140,000 extra projected maximum possible deaths. In essence, our $2 trillion bailout/stimulus means that we are spending as little as $10 million per potentially saved life. Add to that all the other costs and suffering (lost jobs, lost businesses, lost opportunities, lost retirement savings, lost liberty, etc.)

    Lee S,
    You wrote: “I have 2 conditions that make me higher risk, and would rather not kick the bucket just yet because of the selfishness of others…

    So, does this mean that you think everyone has been selfish in normal flue years when only the usual is done to prevent spread? When we didn’t shut down our economies for SARS, ebola, and other threats, we were all being selfish?

  • Slatey Cleavage

    Lee wrote, “indeed, I even recommend reading or watching Al Jazeera to get an arabcentric view”
    The nice people who cheered on Sept 11.
    I don’t think so.

  • wayne

    Lee–
    while I’m a firm believer in knowing what my existential enemies think, I already know how little they think, and watching Al Jazeera isn’t on my list of things to do. (Melting their sand into glass & raising the ambient air-pressure over the target to 6psi, is all I’m concerned about.)

    one more time….

    Minuteman III, ICBM Launch Animation
    https://youtu.be/S-V6MZlyCqE
    2:22

    Dick–
    Great stuff. It’s a pleasure to read your commentary, do you write for a living?

    If I could pivot to “ventilators,” for a moment;
    I don’t understand this obsession for this particular piece of medical-equipment. One needs to be in an ICU bed, with a trained ICU RN on duty, not to mention the associated Aides & orderlies.
    Government Motors can produce all the over-priced ventilators the Feds demand, but none of them will be put into actual use unless they concurrently mass-produce ICU beds and mass train ICU certified Registered Nurses.

    And while my Mother went from High School into a 3 year Nursing School Program, in most all States now, it requires a BS in Nursing to become a RN, and ICU certification…. is extra.

  • Cotour

    “(Melting their sand into glass & raising the ambient air-pressure over the target to 6psi, is all I’m concerned about.)”

    Classic Wayne :)

  • wayne

    Cotour–
    That was just for you!
    They want to die in the stone-age, and we can make that happen for them.

    “The Enemy”
    Jocko Willink / Akira
    April 2019
    https://youtu.be/4UgpgZApLs4
    5:27

    “And I’m not active duty anymore,
    But it’s still in there.
    That there’s a guy.
    That’s in a cave.
    Somewhere.
    And he’s walking back and forth,
    and he’s got a machine gun in one hand and a grenade in the other hand,
    and he’s waiting,
    For me.
    And we’re gonna meet….”

  • Lee S

    Edward… Quote “So, does this mean that you think everyone has been selfish in normal flue years when only the usual is done to prevent spread? When we didn’t shut down our economies for SARS, ebola, and other threats, we were all being selfish?”
    Speaking of cherry picking and taking things out of context, I can only presume you missed the line preceding the one you quoted… Quote ‘ I have the same disrespect for kids who think it’s ok to ignore the very sensible advice given…” presumably your not one of the kids I was refering to, so my reply is no. ( And your grade is “must try harder ;-)

  • Cotour

    Mr. Eagleson: Respectfully, I will stand by what it stated.

    “Nothing at this level IMO is a coincidence, and if by some miracle it happens to be then there will be those who are ready to employ the “Never let a crisis go to waste” mode of operation. S.O.M. always lurks in the darkness of the highest levels of power.”

    All potentials realistically exist today, IMO.

    Whether this ongoing event is a function of nature or nurture / agenda is all most not relevant, its the effects and what they indicate that is what needs to be focused on. If its not an executed agenda then those who wait to capitalize on these kinds of situations are without doubt working behind the scenes to accomplish what it is that they are focused on. Either you believe in the Globalism agenda, or you do not. Mr. Soros and his adherents are not spending his billions without a stated end goal.

    And from what I can determine, by Mr. Soros’s own words, he is serious as a heart attack. And who benefits from that model being fulfilled? The Democrat leadership and the Chinese.

    And the Black Death is a very poor analogy here. Those in the middle ages did not, as far as I understand, have the real potential of a state actor who was / is running a bio lab in the ground zero city that was and is continuing to work on the particular virus derived from bats that is apparently the virus that afflicts the worlds population.

    You must admit that ALL potentials realistically exist at this particular time in history. Those who succumbed to the Black Death were the victims of a natural condition and unsanitary conditions and not agenda. Why? Because they did not have nor were aware of what in fact was on going at a micro biology level. And if they were aware of it, someone is likely to have used it as a weapon.

    “Chinese government researchers isolated more than 2,000 animal viruses, including deadly bat coronaviruses, and carried out scientific work on them just three miles from a wild animal market identified as the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.” “The exact origin of the virus, however, remains a mystery.”

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/china-researchers-isolated-bat-coronaviruses-near-/

    “And carried out research on them” (Bat coronaviruses)”

    The Chinese have a bio lab that works on these kinds of viruses specifically and whether that is to just better understand them to better deal with them, I am certain that you understand what the flip side implications of that work indicate.

    The Chinese as are the Democrats are existentially threatened by the Trump administration, that I do not think you would argue with. What lengths will they not go to to ensure that he is removed from the position that he currently occupies? And the last opportunity because all of the other actions were not successful? Trumps massive economy and stock market gains. What are being threatened specifically?

    And while it may be weighted that this virus is just a function of natural conditions and the Chinese inability to do the right thing because they are Communists and must lie about everything that they do and are involved in, the implications of this current condition can not be not seen.

    This situation is timed perfectly to theoretically deny Trump a win in 2020, and his win existentially threatens both the Democrat leadership (And their media allies) and their agenda, and the Chinese and their agenda. What will they do in the second Trump administration? That might be the more sobering potential here. Would you at least agree with that?

    And IMO after all of this shakes out Trump and his American First agenda still prevails. Trump has survived everything else they have thrown at him, why not this? Even if it is a function of Nature and not Nurture / agenda.

  • Cotour

    PS: The Chinese (And many others) have used “bio weapons” throughout history to effect their agenda.

    “Historical accounts from ancient China and medieval Europe detail the use of infected animal carcasses, such as cows or horses, and human carcasses, by the Xiongnu/Huns, Mongols, Turks and other groups, to contaminate enemy water supplies.”

    Not such a stretch from contaminated water supplies to bio labs and associated bad actors, arms length or otherwise.

  • Lee S

    @Anyone that will listen ;-) I honestly cannot believe that there is any intent behind this virus situation…. It is too harmful worldwide, and the vectors proposed for it’s spread into the human population seem totally reasonable. That said, I can believe there are plenty that will try to take advantage of the situation!
    I also can’t see that unless Trump makes a complete pig’s ear of the situation, Corona will in any way affect his electability… And to give credit where due, he seems to be doing a decent job. ( It also won’t hurt him to be running against Biden to be honest… The Democratic party there and Labour in the UK seem to have a problem picking electable leaders just lately )

  • Cototur

    “The Democratic party there and Labour in the UK seem to have a problem picking electable leaders just lately”

    Two things I hope we can agree on, these players are having their problems because they have been revealed to be 1. Globalists, and 2. Are anti national sovereignty as a result. They have both drifted away from the people that they are bound to represent and are no longer one with them.

    In other words they have become the problem, emissary’s of the beast, and can no longer hide behind their lies.

  • Edward

    Lee S,
    You wrote: “presumably your not one of the kids I was refering to, so my reply is no.

    Except that those kids that you are complaining about are doing the same things that we all did during other outbreaks. This is the very first time that we have performed virtual house arrest mixed with economic destruction, and those kids didn’t go along with this new paradigm. Since you complain about their current behavior then why was the same behavior not selfish before? If that behavior was not selfish before, why is it selfish now?

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