China’s 21-ton Long March 5B core stage to make uncontrolled re-entry
For the second time in two launches, the 21-ton core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket is about to make uncontrolled re-entry, with a mass large enough that some part of it is certain to hit the ground.
Where and when the new Long March 5B stage will land is impossible to predict. The decay of its orbit will increase as atmospheric drag brings it down into more denser. The speed of this process depends on the size and density of the object and variables include atmospheric variations and fluctuations, which are themselves influenced by solar activity and other factors.
The high speed of the rocket body means it orbits the Earth roughly every 90 minutes and so a change of just a few minutes in reentry time results in reentry point thousands of kilometers away.
The Long March 5B core stage’s orbital inclination of 41.5 degrees means the rocket body passes a little farther north than New York, Madrid and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand, and could make its reentry at any point within this area.
The previous core stage hit the Atlantic Ocean six days after launch in May 2020. Had it come down fifteen to thirty minutes earlier it would have come down on U.S. soil, possibly even on top of the New York metropolitan area.
China’s design for this rocket means that every single launch will result in similar potential disasters. They cannot restart the core stage’s engines after cut-off, so that once it has delivered its payload it is nothing more than a very big and uncontrolled brick that has to hit the ground somewhere.
This is a direct violation of the Outer Space Treaty, which China is a signatory. The treaty makes signatories liable for any damage from an uncontrolled re-entry, and requires them to take action to prevent such events from occurring.
China it appears doesn’t care much about the treaties it signs. The first time could be rung up to a mistake. The second time is intentional and tells us that this country will not honor any of its obligations anywhere else, if it decides it can get away with it.
Readers!
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
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For the second time in two launches, the 21-ton core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket is about to make uncontrolled re-entry, with a mass large enough that some part of it is certain to hit the ground.
Where and when the new Long March 5B stage will land is impossible to predict. The decay of its orbit will increase as atmospheric drag brings it down into more denser. The speed of this process depends on the size and density of the object and variables include atmospheric variations and fluctuations, which are themselves influenced by solar activity and other factors.
The high speed of the rocket body means it orbits the Earth roughly every 90 minutes and so a change of just a few minutes in reentry time results in reentry point thousands of kilometers away.
The Long March 5B core stage’s orbital inclination of 41.5 degrees means the rocket body passes a little farther north than New York, Madrid and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand, and could make its reentry at any point within this area.
The previous core stage hit the Atlantic Ocean six days after launch in May 2020. Had it come down fifteen to thirty minutes earlier it would have come down on U.S. soil, possibly even on top of the New York metropolitan area.
China’s design for this rocket means that every single launch will result in similar potential disasters. They cannot restart the core stage’s engines after cut-off, so that once it has delivered its payload it is nothing more than a very big and uncontrolled brick that has to hit the ground somewhere.
This is a direct violation of the Outer Space Treaty, which China is a signatory. The treaty makes signatories liable for any damage from an uncontrolled re-entry, and requires them to take action to prevent such events from occurring.
China it appears doesn’t care much about the treaties it signs. The first time could be rung up to a mistake. The second time is intentional and tells us that this country will not honor any of its obligations anywhere else, if it decides it can get away with it.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
China doesn’t give a rat’s —- about their own people being hit by falling rockets, why would they care about anyone else’s?
Isn’t this the rocket they plan to use mutiple times to launch their space station ?
There are roughly 90 million members of the chinese communist party, and they all need to go, all the way.
U-2
“Seconds”
https://youtu.be/XSl0W-NsL98
3:10
Rules for thee but not for mee. I don’t think that’s in the communist manifesto, but it should be. It applies to those people over there and over here.
No action to be taken under the Biden and Trudeau dictatorships.
Come on baby hit my land!!!!!
It might take years but I can get some cash out of them.
Why should China care about such inconveniences as ‘treaties’? They are the only superpower. The United States is done being United, and Russia, is, well, Russia. If a US President were to make a show of force, half of the country would accuse them of ‘warmongering’. A house divided, and all.
America still lives and is strong in the hearts of countrymen; we just need to find a physical location for it.
I’d like to see its re-entry…safely…
I wonder how China would react if a space tug sent it back home where it came from. China’s junk, Chinas yard!
Now playing, Space Junk by Devo.
humphreyrobot–
Devo
-the relevant tune-
https://youtu.be/nFCU_Ld9snU
2:14
“And now I’m mad about space junk,
I’m all burned out about space junk.
Walk and talk about space junk.
It smashed my baby’s head, space junk,
And now my sally’s dead, space junk….”
It has been EVIDENT for a LONG time that china has no integrity or honor – only SELF ! That is why they were so against PRESIDENT TRUMP’s reelection and most likely were a MAJOR player behind the corrupted election results! I keep thinking that with all the carnage by the IMPOTUS joe and harris junta that the vast majority of AMERICANS will look at the PROVEN VOTE FRAUD and DEMAND that PReSIDENT TRUMP is returned to office and everyone involved in the SCAM is prosecuted ! THEN and only then will we put an end to the stealth and corruption of chinese infiltration.
To be fair, I wouldn’t sign a treaty with the US. How’s that Ukrainian territorial integrity in exchange for giving up nukes treaty working out?
Soon?
Could we be a little more specific. Give maybe a range in the half life of gold fish or something?
Soon as in, this week, this month, or this millennial?
TSgt Ciz: See today’s update for more precise estimate, with May 10th as the centerpoint of the window.