Study suggests COVID-19 death rate is far less than presently reported, comparable to flu
The uncertainty of science: A California large-scale study of COVID-19 anti-bodies in the general population has found that the infection rate for the Wuhan virus could be 50 to 85 times higher than present counts, which would mean that the death rate is actually quite low, comparable to the flu.
The results of the study are preliminary and not peer-reviewed, but the general takeaways would seem to strongly contribute to the notion that there have been a large number of COVID-19 cases that went undetected.
Due to questions over the antibody tests’ efficacy, researchers adjusted for test performance characteristics by using the test manufacturer’s data and a sample of controls tested at Stanford University. Again, the results are preliminary and the study has not been peer-reviewed, but researchers found a raw, unadjusted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, which was scaled up to 2.5-4.2 percent when adjusting for population and test performance characteristics.
Researchers estimate that if 2.5 to 4.2 percent of the county has already been infected, the true number of total cases in early April — both active and recovered — ranges between 48,000 and 81,000. The county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the study was conducted, which would mean cases are being underreported by a factor of 50 to 85. “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.
If the study’s numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20. [emphasis mine]
The researchers also note that, based on this study, not enough people have yet been infected to achieve herd immunity, a conclusion totally reasonable considering the effort being made to prevent infection.
Regardless, if true this illustrates again that this virus does not merit the mass hysteria it is causing. Because it, like the flu, mostly kills older and sicker people, not young healthy individuals, the overall mortality will almost certainly not be much different than past years. While it is tragic that this disease, plus the flu, is making survival harder and less likely for older individuals (such as myself by the way), it is unconscionable for us to bankrupt the whole society and abandon the rule of law for this reason.
Sadly, that is apparently what we are doing.
As the researchers note, these results are preliminary, and could turn out to be false. That they coincide with other research in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship however gives them some weight.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The uncertainty of science: A California large-scale study of COVID-19 anti-bodies in the general population has found that the infection rate for the Wuhan virus could be 50 to 85 times higher than present counts, which would mean that the death rate is actually quite low, comparable to the flu.
The results of the study are preliminary and not peer-reviewed, but the general takeaways would seem to strongly contribute to the notion that there have been a large number of COVID-19 cases that went undetected.
Due to questions over the antibody tests’ efficacy, researchers adjusted for test performance characteristics by using the test manufacturer’s data and a sample of controls tested at Stanford University. Again, the results are preliminary and the study has not been peer-reviewed, but researchers found a raw, unadjusted antibody prevalence of 1.5 percent, which was scaled up to 2.5-4.2 percent when adjusting for population and test performance characteristics.
Researchers estimate that if 2.5 to 4.2 percent of the county has already been infected, the true number of total cases in early April — both active and recovered — ranges between 48,000 and 81,000. The county had reported just under 1,000 cases at the time the study was conducted, which would mean cases are being underreported by a factor of 50 to 85. “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.
If the study’s numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20. [emphasis mine]
The researchers also note that, based on this study, not enough people have yet been infected to achieve herd immunity, a conclusion totally reasonable considering the effort being made to prevent infection.
Regardless, if true this illustrates again that this virus does not merit the mass hysteria it is causing. Because it, like the flu, mostly kills older and sicker people, not young healthy individuals, the overall mortality will almost certainly not be much different than past years. While it is tragic that this disease, plus the flu, is making survival harder and less likely for older individuals (such as myself by the way), it is unconscionable for us to bankrupt the whole society and abandon the rule of law for this reason.
Sadly, that is apparently what we are doing.
As the researchers note, these results are preliminary, and could turn out to be false. That they coincide with other research in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship however gives them some weight.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
That they coincide with other research in South Korea and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship however gives them some weight.
Except they don’t, South Korea has had 229 deaths over 10,613 cases, a fatality rate of 2.3%, the Diamond Princess 13 deaths from 712 cases, a fatality rate of 1.8%. Those are the rates that are supported by countries that have successfully tracked down the majority of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases and successfully gotten well past the peak number of cases and deaths.
Obviously there will be some asymptomatic cases that have escaped detection, going over and over evidence from numerous sources I think it’s somewhere around 60 – 70% of cases that are truly asymptomatic, up to 80% I think either asymptomatic or so mild as to often be ignored by the person infected.
This falls into the category of “it agrees with what I think, so I want to believe it’s correct, but being honest, I would be dumping all over it if it didn’t agree.” There are way too many fudges, estimates, and projections in there. It’s not actually that far from typical social science or climatology “statistics” manipulation, and I don’t accept it there, so I won’t accept it here.
Serologic tests – we need these. Statistically significant, geographically dispersed.
Without these we cannot know the true death rate. We have no “denominator”
My post from another article before this article
The key here is statistically significant and geographically dispersed anti-body/ serological testing. This will tell us the number of persons who have been infected but are not overtly affected with life-threatening symptoms. These results will give us the denominator in the death rate calculation that Dr Fauci could NOT know when he said Covid-19 was 10 time higher than the Flu.
One test set (note one set) in Santa Clara has interesting results that should cause everyone to demand these tests have a strong priority.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-antibody-testing-finds-bay-area-infections-85-times-higher-reported-researchers
Up until the last week or so I think the Trump administration was doing the correct things as best they could given that they really didn’t know much AND had dis or mis information (lies) from China and WHO, I think Pres. Trump has really walked the tight-rope well. He shut down travel with China Jan 31. … I estimate this being the key move. For this he was called a racist only to be accused of moving too late later. Other steps followed – Italy then Europe travel closures …etc.
The various governors have had varying track records on their reactions to the virus epidemic. The Michigan governor having the worst record – impeachment comes to mind w.r.t. her actions.
All of the justifiable steps taken by any government is based upon the virulence (exposure vs infection) and death rates once infected. High infection rates and high death rates are why the populace is fearful. The virulence is/has been expected to be extreme and much higher than the various flus. This is probably true. My understanding on Covid-19 virulence is based on my understanding from news and reading.
The key is then the death rate with each infection.
The number of infections is needed since the virus is novel. We know the deaths (as long as the true death cause is given – issue?!)but the number of infections is assumed and unknown. The flu death rate vs infection is known from a priori data so when they knew the deaths they could extrapolate the infection rate. (This is my understanding)
For the Covid-19 we don’t know the death rate. Getting the infection rate is VERY important.
If the death rate is much lower – ie around the flu or less – then the shut down is deeply unwarranted. I expect this is so.
If the death rate is slightly lower then lower restrictions are warranted but not a full opening. Large gatherings need to be curtailed for example. The public needs warning.
If the death rate is as currently understood then SOME restrictions are warranted – BUT most of the reactions to this virus should be voluntary. If folks can work from home – they should. If workers can be separated and observe steps to halt infection they should. If others cannot work due to medical conditions they can apply for assistance. I THINK current SSI can allow this – if not change it. We spent $2B, we can tweak SSI rules.
The possible desire for government officials (governors, mayors and sheriffs) to use this “crisis” to curtail and take our rights hinges on the death rate as cause for these actions. I don’t think the most extreme of Covid -19 effects justify our rights being curtailed as in Michigan. However, curtailing large gatherings may be in order.
If we see those who may want to curtail or permanently take our rights — or train us in taking our rights want to keep this situation then they will not want the true death rate known. The death rate and therefore the serology tests is key.
Let’s see how they react.
Let’s also see how the media covers this.
Actually if you just take the raw 1.5% having antibodies data point and apply no demographic adjustments, then the mortality rate is still only 0.35% or so. Worse then the flu sure, but not egregiously so given that it is a NOVEL virus with no herd immunity built up. So about 3x a typical flu basically which seems too small to crash our entire economy and abandon our constitutional liberties over, unless you are a leftist and that is your agenda.
WRT South Korea they have tested a lot of people for active virus, not antibodies indicating previous exposure, so we really don’t have data like this. So far they have tested 538K out of a population of 51M, so basically 1%, but again only for active infections, not the antibody marker of previous and unsuspected infection.
Having traveled to South Korea a few times on business (admittedly about 12 years ago so a bit dated) I would attribute much of their relatively low infection rate to less permissive travel standards. Of the foreign countries I have traveled to they are the most restrictive I have experienced. And given the history and capitalistic competition the PRC represents I expect travel to/from there is even more constrained. This is just anecdotal but likely a contributing factor IMHO.
All this said these are just preliminary results that need further vetting. It is promising though, and if I were the CDC I’d be funding Berkeley to repeat the same test on the logic that if Stanford and Berkeley agree, then it’s probably as good as peer reviewed and we’d get the answer a whole lot faster : )
If the unsymptomatic rates were as high as this study suggests most of the population of NYC would be carrying antibodies (testing in NYC has focused on people showing symptoms), so a repeat of the study there would quickly show its merits.
1.53% of the population of the 5 boroughs in NYC have now tested positive for Covid-19, herd immunity should be well underway, so a sudden drop in new cases in NYC should be happening about now . . .
From Dr. John Campbell, a study on covid tests on pregnant women in NYC.
I’ve been saying actual infection rate in NY is about 4 times the “official” number, these numbers are roughly in line with that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38cb7_nmPh8
I am frankly tired of hearing people say we need more testing.
Its BS.
We need more people infected. We need to get out of these lockdowns . They did their job and slowed down the initial infection rate and thus the hospitalization rate. They saved the hospitals. Good.
Now we have to get to that herd infection rate. That 90 to 100% infected number that will stop future mass outbreaks.
Its time to man up and let the rest of America get infected.
Let my people go.
pzatchok, strategy certainly depends on goals. Is anyone in the US administration still advocating herd immunity?
Everyone wants to wait until we have a vaccine.
Now that we are into this thing no one wants to risk a single life for fear they will be blamed for its loss.
Under the Never-Knew-This-Existed, heading:
“U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet)” at the CDC.
–they track data on ‘influenza-like illness.’
This came up briefly at yesterday’s Task Force presentation but I can’t get past a log-in page at CDC with the address I have.
How a philosophical Marxist applies power.
Mayor of NYC: “When you see a crowd, when you see a line that’s not distanced, when you see a supermarket that’s too crowded–anything–you can report it right away so we can get there to fix the problem,” de Blasio said in the video.”
You will comply, and if you do not we encourage your neighbor to make the phone call. “REPORT!”
(Wait until you have to have papers to prove your “Clean”. That I suspect will be the next battle royal between this useless Marxist mayor and the Liberal Democrat governor. Or maybe not? We will have to wait on that one)
Nothing about education yourself, personal responsibility, nothing about you being prepared and wearing appropriate protective gear when you are in a public space. Just the threat of authoritarian power. And you know it would be much worse if he were unencumbered by an annoying Constitution, or the eyes of the country watching him.
Its the nature of the beast.
(DeBlasio transmits his own personal fear and inadequacy in every word uttered from his mouth. I despise the man)
The only reason to have everyone tested or even an instant test is to segregate the people. Mark either the infected, the un infected but immune, or the never infected.
This can ONLY be used to slow down the eventual herd immunity. To keep us on lock down longer. To keep parts of our populous under lock down longer.
To eventually get the people used to health emergencies being an excuse to lock down the people for longer and longer periods. Each time for a lesser excuse. Until the people just willingly go home lock the doors and wait for the food to be delivered.
The governor doesn’t like your county. Your ordered to be on lock down until they are satisfied you have learned your lesson, or the election is over or they have impoverished you enough. Enough to depend on the government for more.
We were told that this was an especially contagious disease, so it would be hardly surprising to find that the infections are two orders of magnitude greater than reported.