Update on Starship/Superheavy work at Boca Chica
Link here. As noted in yesterday’s quick links, Starship prototype #28 has been rolled to the launchpad area. The update at the link also notes that Superheavy prototype #10 is also there now, with both being prepared for final testing before launch. The article also notes that this testing phase will be “condensed,” suggesting SpaceX wants the third orbital test launch to take place as quickly as possible. A week after the mid-November test flight Musk said he thought the company would be ready for that third launch within three to four weeks. It appears the company is close to meeting that target.
The article also included this important detail:
Elon Musk recently posted a picture of the High Bay and ships 28, 29, 30, and 32 on X. In this post, he indicated that these were the last of the Version 1 of Starship. It’s important to note that Ship 31 is in the Rocket Garden at this time and is included as a Version 1 ship.
Later on, he added that Version 2 would have better reliability, more fuel capacity, and reduce the dry mass. So far, there have been no confirmed sightings of Version 2 hardware, but SpaceX has already scrapped parts of S33.
This fact means that SpaceX has four to five Version 1 Starships that it wants to fly quickly in order to obtain test data. It has to use them to get them out of the way to fly Version 2. This means that, given the freedom to operate as it wishes, the company would likely be doing launches almost monthly in 2024, a prediction that seems confirmed by where things stand now at Boca Chica. SpaceX will likely be ready to launch Starship #28 and Superheavy #10 soon, if not by the end of the year by January almost certainly.
Finally, these facts show that should no launch occur at that time, and be delayed into February, March, April, or even later, the cause will not be SpaceX, but the paper-pushers at the FAA and Fish & Wildlife.
We already know from a recent GAO report that the FAA’s previous mishap investigations of the previous two Starship/Superheavy orbital launches were simply photocopies of SpaceX’s investigation. That report made it clear that the FAA does no investigations of its own, on any launch mishap.
Thus, when SpaceX says its investigation is complete and it is ready to launch, any further delay by the FAA is simply intransigence within the federal government.
As for Fish & Wildlife, any delay is pure red-tape, being used to harm SpaceX for political reasons. We have almost three-quarters of a century worth of data at Cape Canaveral that an active spaceport does no harm to wildlife, and in fact helps it thrive by preventing development across a large preserve. Fish & Wildlife’s own investigation into the first launch confirmed this fact, documenting no significant environmental damage. And we know the second launch did even less harm, its launchpad deluge system working as designed.
None of these facts matter to the paper-pushers in Washington, or to the politicos in the White House. I predict that the third orbital launch will occur no earlier than March, two to three months after SpaceX announces it is ready to go, as these government agencies slow-walk their rubber-stamp launch approvals.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Link here. As noted in yesterday’s quick links, Starship prototype #28 has been rolled to the launchpad area. The update at the link also notes that Superheavy prototype #10 is also there now, with both being prepared for final testing before launch. The article also notes that this testing phase will be “condensed,” suggesting SpaceX wants the third orbital test launch to take place as quickly as possible. A week after the mid-November test flight Musk said he thought the company would be ready for that third launch within three to four weeks. It appears the company is close to meeting that target.
The article also included this important detail:
Elon Musk recently posted a picture of the High Bay and ships 28, 29, 30, and 32 on X. In this post, he indicated that these were the last of the Version 1 of Starship. It’s important to note that Ship 31 is in the Rocket Garden at this time and is included as a Version 1 ship.
Later on, he added that Version 2 would have better reliability, more fuel capacity, and reduce the dry mass. So far, there have been no confirmed sightings of Version 2 hardware, but SpaceX has already scrapped parts of S33.
This fact means that SpaceX has four to five Version 1 Starships that it wants to fly quickly in order to obtain test data. It has to use them to get them out of the way to fly Version 2. This means that, given the freedom to operate as it wishes, the company would likely be doing launches almost monthly in 2024, a prediction that seems confirmed by where things stand now at Boca Chica. SpaceX will likely be ready to launch Starship #28 and Superheavy #10 soon, if not by the end of the year by January almost certainly.
Finally, these facts show that should no launch occur at that time, and be delayed into February, March, April, or even later, the cause will not be SpaceX, but the paper-pushers at the FAA and Fish & Wildlife.
We already know from a recent GAO report that the FAA’s previous mishap investigations of the previous two Starship/Superheavy orbital launches were simply photocopies of SpaceX’s investigation. That report made it clear that the FAA does no investigations of its own, on any launch mishap.
Thus, when SpaceX says its investigation is complete and it is ready to launch, any further delay by the FAA is simply intransigence within the federal government.
As for Fish & Wildlife, any delay is pure red-tape, being used to harm SpaceX for political reasons. We have almost three-quarters of a century worth of data at Cape Canaveral that an active spaceport does no harm to wildlife, and in fact helps it thrive by preventing development across a large preserve. Fish & Wildlife’s own investigation into the first launch confirmed this fact, documenting no significant environmental damage. And we know the second launch did even less harm, its launchpad deluge system working as designed.
None of these facts matter to the paper-pushers in Washington, or to the politicos in the White House. I predict that the third orbital launch will occur no earlier than March, two to three months after SpaceX announces it is ready to go, as these government agencies slow-walk their rubber-stamp launch approvals.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Big article in the paper yesterday – a free overnight software update designed to prevent drivers from spoofing Tesla’s driver attention safeguards is called a “Recall”! As in “All Teslas Recalled!”
What drivel. You can’t trust anything the MSM says about Tesla or SpaceX!
Or anything else, come to think of it!
What is the chance of debris from an exploding Starship landing on one of the Caribbean islands? When IFT2 Starship blew up, was it east of any Caribbean land masses? I read that someone photographed the ship from Puerto Rico.
Just speculating that if something falls anywhere near an island that the US government would permanently shutdown launches from Boca.
Some of those picts look like sci-fi book covers from the 50’s.