The launch failure Thursday of a Russian Proton rocket is putting the squeeze on the commercial satellite industry.

The competition heats up: The launch failure Thursday of a Russian Proton rocket is putting the squeeze on the commercial satellite industry.

Periodically I am told by launch industry experts that the launch industry doesn’t have sufficient demand or capacity for more launch companies. It was this logic, for example, that prompted Boeing and Lockheed Martin to combine into ULA and do a bulk buy with the Air Force. Otherwise, they claimed, they didn’t have enough business to compete with each other and stay in business.

This article above puts the lie to these claims. Not only is there plenty of demand, companies like SpaceX would probably up their fees if they wanted to because the supply does not even come close to meeting the demand. In fact, satellite companies want to get their satellites into orbit and can’t because of a shortage of launch services.

This shortage is an opportunity, not only for the companies that exist but for any new companies trying to get started, such as Stratolaunch. Rather than sit on their hands, as have Boeing and Lockheed Martin, an ambitious and competitive effort here could win market share and make lots of money.

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Virgin Galactic pretty much admits that SpaceShipTwo will fly to only fifty miles altitude, not 62 (100 kilometers).

Virgin Galactic pretty much admits that SpaceShipTwo will fly to only fifty miles altitude, not 62 (100 kilometers).

The admission came in response to the rumors that say the spacecraft will even have trouble reach 50 miles.

Though the company is making a hard PR effort to dispel the negative rumors that are swirling about in the press, the only way they will really succeed at this is to begin actual test flights, something that has not happened, as they have promised repeatedly since the first powered flight last year.

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The assembly of Boeing’s CST-100 manned spacecraft is expected to begin soon.

The competition heats up: The assembly of Boeing’s CST-100 manned spacecraft is expected to begin soon.

Boeing takes over the OPF-3 lease in late June 2014 following an official handover ceremony from Space Florida. Assembly begins soon thereafter. … โ€œThe pieces are coming one by one from all over the country,โ€ Ferguson explained. โ€œParts from our vendors are already starting to show up for our test article. โ€œAssembly of the test article in Florida starts soon.โ€

Granted, Boeing’s lease for its assembly space at Kennedy has not yet started, but the vagueness of the assembly start date is a bit curious, and suggests that Boeing won’t begin assembly until they know they have won the contract from NASA, the announcement of which is presently scheduled for late summer 2014.

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The Air Force has hired the Aerospace Corporation to evaluate how long it will take to replace the Russian engine used by the Atlas 5 rocket.

Government dithering: The Air Force has hired the Aerospace Corporation to evaluate how long it will take to replace the Russian engine used by the Atlas 5 rocket.

โ€œI see numbers all over the map,โ€ [Ray Johnson, vice president at Aerospace] said May 14 during the World Space Risk Forum here. โ€œSome people say they could do it in five years. Others estimate itโ€™s going to be longer than that, and that it could be eight.โ€ Aerospace Corp. work evaluating what it would take to develop a hydrocarbon engine to replace the RD-180 โ€” if U.S.-Russia relations sour to the point where the engine is no longer available or wanted โ€” โ€œis literally just a few weeks old,โ€ Johnson said.

Time is critical on this issue. It seems to me a better thing to do would be to immediately issue of Request for Proposals, which would quickly tell the Air Force what the American aerospace industry has to offer. They could then proceed right to construction, rather than studying the issue endlessly beforehand.

Moreover, why isn’t Lockheed Martin doing something about this? It is their rocket that is dependent on the Russians. Why is it the Air Force’s responsibility to save them?

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Want to fly into space? All you have to do is “build the future” and win the Hackaday Prize.

Want to fly into space? All you have to do is “build the future” and win the Hackaday Prize.

Youโ€™re probably wondering what youโ€™re actually supposed to build? Weโ€™ve been vague up to this point on purpose, because spouting specific categorization stifles creativity. We want you to Build the Future โ€” not fit inside of a tiny box made of disqualifying restraints. … The only requirements you really have to hit are quite simple:

  • You must actually build something
  • It must involve some type of electronics that are connected to something
  • Our main requirements have to do with documentation. This includes lists of parts, schematics, images, and videos. Remember, Openness is a Virtue.

The winner gets just under $200K to buy a ticket on the commercial space carrier of their choice. Or they can cash it in. Numerous additional prizes will also be awarded.

Hat tip to commenter Eric who says he has entered, is not building a rocket engine “that seems to be in demand all of a sudden,” but is building something that is “out there” nonetheless.

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In a sweeping election victory on Friday India voted a new pro-business party and prime minister into power.

India goes capitalist: In a sweeping election victory on Friday India voted a new pro-business prime minister into power.

The victory was a landslide, including a major sweep in parliament.

The long entrenched but now defeated Congress Party had begun moving away from socialism back in 1991, which produced a booming economy for India.

Prime Minister Singh launched reforms in 1991 as finance minister that opened India’s socialist economy to global capital, but his spell in the top job ended marred by corruption and a floundering economy amid mounting policy paralysis. He has already bid farewell to his staff after ten years in office.

The new leader, Narendra Modi, is expected to accelerate this effort.

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Debris from the Proton launch failure yesterday has been found in China.

Debris from the Proton launch failure yesterday has been found in China.

The vagueness of yesterday’s Russia reports suggested to me the possibility that the rocket might have fallen into another country’s territory, something the Russians would normally not like to advertise. It appears, however, that most of the satellite and rocket has burned up before hitting the ground.

This report clarifies some details about the failure. It was the Proton’s third stage that failed, not the Briz-M stage that has caused failures in the past. This is also the 6th failure of a Proton since December 2010, a poor launch record that strongly indicates serious quality control problems in the manufacture of this rocket.

Update: Inmarsat, one of the Proton rocket’s biggest customers, is considering dumping the Proton for future launches. To do so will be expensive and will likely delay the launch of their next two satellites, both of which were scheduled for launch on a Proton in 2014. Nonetheless, it appears they are considering it.

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A Russian Proton rocket crashed today nine minutes after launch.

When it rains it pours: A Russian Proton rocket crashed today nine minutes after launch.

Considering the tensions between the U.S. and Russia over space, combined with the increasing competition for the launch market created by SpaceX’s lower prices, another Proton failure now is something the Russians could do without. Moreover, the Russians were planning a lot of Proton launches in the next few months to catch up from last year’s launch failure. Many of these scheduled launches were commercial and were going to earn them hard cash. This failure definitely hurts, and will certainly be used as justification by their government in increase its control over that country’s aging aerospace industry.

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