China and SpaceX complete launches

Both China and SpaceX successfully completed launches today.

First, China completed the first launch of its Long March 8A rocket, an upgraded and more powerful version of its Long March 8 rocket. The rocket lifted off from China’s coastal Wencheng spaceport, and put the second batch (number unrevealed) of one of China’s new mega internet constellations.

Along with the basic Long March-8 model and the booster-free tandem configuration, it forms the Long March 8 series of rockets, providing a payload capacity range of 3 tons, 5 tons, and 7 tons to SSO. This significantly enhances China’s satellite networking capabilities for low and medium Earth orbits.

These rockets and the coastal spaceport will also allow China to steadily reduce its reliance on its older family of rockets that use toxic hypergolic fuels and launch from within China.

Next SpaceX launched another 21 Starliink satellites, including 13 with direct-to-cell capabilities, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its 18th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The 2025 launch race:

19 SpaceX
7 China
1 Blue Origin
1 India
1 Japan
1 Russia
1 Rocket Lab

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A Pakistani rover will fly on China’s Chang’e-8 mission to the Moon

Pakistan and China have finalized plans to place a Pakistani rover on China’s Chang’e-8 lunar lander mission.

This rover partnership was first announced in November 2024. This new release appears to provide a bit more information about the rover itself.

The rover will have a mass of around 35 kilograms and carry science payloads for studying lunar soil composition, radiation levels, plasma properties and testing new technologies for sustainable human presence on the Moon. It will also feature a collaborative scientific payload developed by Chinese and European researchers.

The Chang’e-8 mission is targeting a 2030 launch and will land in the Moon’s south pole region. China also claims it will initiate construction of China’s International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), but that’s a bit of hyperbole. All it shall be is another unmanned lander with two rovers and other instruments, hardly a manned base. What will matter will be what follows, and how quickly.

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It won’t be Democratic Party stupidity that will give Republicans victories in ’26 and ’28

Vultures eating carrion
Democrats in Washington

In the past few weeks there have been a number of very entertaining essays describing the insane inability of Democrats to learn anything from their defeats in the 2024 elections. From the second link:

The Democratic Party just can’t help itself. For its own psychological reasons, it can’t move beyond the “denial” stage of grief. Doing so would jeopardize the party’s sense of purpose, identity, and ego. Right now, the “patient” cannot heal itself because it won’t accept the diagnosis.

Instead, it rejects it: Trump is Hitler! Musk is Hitler! MAGA is Hitler! I’m the only one defending democracy!

A sane, rational actor would take a step back and consider his own role in losing three branches of government, a majority of statehouses, and two-thirds of the Supreme Court. And then they’d develop a better product.

Fortunately for the GOP, they’re just not ready for that level of introspection. Not yet. (And probably not until it’s forced upon them.)

And so, the losing losers of the Democratic Party continue to lose. They can’t even counterpunch effectively, because they overreact to every feint. They’re so ridiculously undisciplined, they’re chasing shadows, following the champ around the ring like a puppy dog — eating a buffet of rights, jabs, and uppercuts. [emphasis in original]

All true, but if conservatives think this stupidity on the left will win Republicans the mid-term elections in ’26 and the next presidential election in ’28, they are fooling themselves. » Read more

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Germany commits almost a million dollars to build off-shore launch platform

The Germany government has now allocated $897,000 to a private consortium of four companies to help finance its promised but delayed an off-shore launch platform.

The North Sea launch platform is being developed by the German Offshore Spaceport Alliance (GOSA), a joint venture formed in December 2020 by Tractebel DOC Offshore, MediaMobil, OHB, and Harren Shipping Services. The platform will be constructed on the 170-metre-long Combi Dock I vessel and will accommodate launchers with a mass of between 36 and 52 tonnes. A 2020 feasibility study stated that the development and operation of the North Sea launch platform would cost between €22 and €30 million over six years.

The consortium had first announced the project in 2023, with the first launch of several suborbital test rockets in 2024. Since then little has been heard of this project, with those launches never occurring.

If built as promised, this platform would accommodate rockets as large as the Falcon Heavy. Its goal, besides offering the platform to all rocket companies, is apparently to give German rocket startups the option of a German spaceport so they don’t have to depend on other countries.

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New calculations raise odds from 1.2% to 2.3% that asteroid will impact Earth in ’32

New calculations have increased the chances that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032 from 1.2% to 2.3%.

Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size. Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across.

There remains great uncertainty in these numbers. We will really not know for certain if the asteroid will hit us until its orbit is studied for the next few years. Moreover, its size and make-up is also not known precisely yet. It could be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet. If the larger size, it poses a much greater risk, though that risk shrinks again if it is a rubble-pile asteroid that will simply break apart upon hitting the atmosphere.

This is not something to take lightly. Though the asteroid is not a world-destroyer, it does have the ability to cause significant damage, depending on where it hits. As its arrival is not for eight years, there is even time to quickly put together an unmanned mission to study it. (In the past I would never said this, but the domination of private enterprise in our present competitive space industry makes many things possible that were impossible when NASA and the government ran everything.)

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ULA swapping Vulcan for Atlas-5 for first 2025 launch

ULA has decided to destack the Vulcan rocket it had planned as its first launch in 2025 (launching a military payload) and is now replacing it with one of its remaining Atlas-5 rockets to put the first batch of satellites for Amazon’s Kuiper internet constellation.

It appears the military is not ready to certify this launch after the second Vulcan launch in October 2024 experienced a problem with one of its strap-on boosters. The payload got to its proper orbit, but the loss of that booster’s nozzle appears to be an issue the military remains concerned about.

Rather than wait, ULA decided to switch to the Kuiper launch. The company wants to complete up to 20 launches in 2025, many of which are for Amazon using its last ten or so Atlas-5 rockets. When it can start commercial launches of Vulcan remains somewhat uncertain. The military has indicated it will make a final decision of certification in the spring, and has also said that first operational flight will follow soon after.

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Boeing notifies SLS employees of impending layoffs

The real cost of SLS and Orion
The expected real per launch cost of SLS and Orion

Boeing yesterday sent a notice out to its employees working on NASA’s SLS rocket that up 400 could be laid off due to “revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations.”

Boeing SLS employees were informed Feb. 7 that the company was making preparations to cut up to 400 jobs from the program because of “revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations.” The specific positions being considered for elimination were not announced but would account for a significant fraction of the overall SLS workforce at the company.

This is probably the most significant update from the entire SLS program since it was first proposed by George Bush Jr in 2004. All other announcements either told us there were going to be more delays, the cost was going up, or there were newly discovered technical problems caused by bad management or sloppy work. This announcement instead actually indicates that NASA management — under pressure from the new Trump administration — is finally addressing these failures after two decades.

In the past few months there have been many indications from the swamp in Washington that it is finally beginning to recognize the absurdity and stupidity of the whole SLS/Orion infrastructure, a realization I outlined in detail fourteen years ago, soon after the project was reshaped from the absurd and stupid Ares project under Bush Jr. to SLS/Orion under Obama.

It took however the arrival of Trump (changed himself from his first administration) to do it. Trump is doing what no president has done in our lifetimes, going through all federal programs and ripping them apart if they are failing to do what they promise. And he is doing it with full and amazingly enthusiastic support of the American people. No one cares that government employees are “crying.” Nor does anyone pay attention any longer to these sob stories, put out by the propaganda press. It have proven itself to be habitual liars whose only interest has been prop up the Washington swamp, and everyone now recognizes it.

Expect a major reshaping of NASA and its entire manned program. We will still be heading to the stars, but finally doing it.

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SpaceX withdraws from process to bring Starlink to South Africa

In what appears to be directly related to the new South African law that will force the redistribution of private land holdings based on race, SpaceX this week withdrew from a meeting to discuss South Africa’s plan to license Starlink operations.

According to an Icasa spokeswoman, SpaceX notified Icasa on Wednesday evening that it would no longer participate in the oral presentations. The company had already made a written submission, which has not been withdrawn. It’s not clear why SpaceX decided to withdraw from the hearings – the company couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.

The withdrawal by SpaceX follows a post by Musk on his social media platform X that asked President Cyril Ramaphosa why the country has what he called “openly racist ownership laws”.

It is not surprising Musk had the company cancel its plans. Musk has more and more been learning about the corrupt and racist policies of the left, and since South Africa has been ruled for several decades by communists who have now decided to impose DEI quotas on land ownership that require a percentage of white-owned land to be confiscated to give to blacks, he has probably decided there are better places than South Africa to provide Starlink services.

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German startup Atmos gets FAA approval to launch its orbital research capsule

The German startup Atmos Space Cargo has now gotten its FAA launch license for testing the re-entry capability of its first orbiting research capsule, dubbed Phoenix.

That payload review was the final regulatory step needed for the mission, Sebastian Klaus, chief executive and co-founder of Atmos, said in an interview. The company doesn’t need a separate FAA reentry license because the spacecraft is planned to reenter over international waters, he said, and there are no licensing requirements by Germany, where the company is based.

Phoenix is fully assembled and has completed environmental testing, although the company is continuing to update software for the vehicle. “Physically and from a testing point of view, the spacecraft is ready for launch,” he said.

The capsule will be deployed immediately after the Falcon 9’s upper stage completes its de-orbit burn, so that it can then test that re-entry capability using an “inflatable decelerator”, likely a larger heat shield that can be used to protect a larger capsule.

This mission will be the first in a series of flights to test that inflatable system. If successful, the capsule will then be made available for orbital manufacturing for return to Earth, similar to the American startup Varda and its capsule.

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Putin fires head of Roscosmos

Vladimir Putin today fired Yury Borosov, who has run Russia’s space industry as head of Roscosmos for only two and a half years after he replaced Dmitry Rogozin, whom Putin had fired in 2022.

According to this British news report, Borosov was fired due to a “catastrophic reduction in the number of launches, as well as incidents and accidents with serious consequences”. Since 2022, the number of successful Russian launches has dropped from 21 to 19 to 17 (in 2024), and so far in 2025 it has only launched once, a classified military launch yesterday. Though there is no indication that launch was a failure, the timing of Borosov’s firing today suggests something might have gone askew once the payloads reached orbit.

The new Roscosmos head is 39-year-old Dmitry Bakanov, who was previously deputy minister of transport.

It is not likely Bakanov will have any better luck revitalizing Russia’s space industry than Borosov. First, Putin consolidated that industry in 2015 into this single Roscosmos corporation, so there is no competition allowed. Russia under Putin’s rule has increasingly returned to the top-down communist model, and as a result it is increasingly less capable of accomplishing much.

Second, Putin’s idiotic invasion of the Ukraine has done nothing but harm to the nation. And as that war continues to drag on, the harm has only been metastasizing.

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Trump has finally taught Republicans how to fight

Trump defiant after being shot
Trump defiant

One of the biggest complaints conservatives have had about the Republican Party for decades is that its politicians just would not fight. At the slightest hint that a Democrat was offended or disagreed, they’d fold like a house of cards. And their fear of the propaganda press made them so timid that Democrats could literally do anything and get away with it (as we are now finding out in the USAID scandal, which became a money laundering operation funneling taxpayer funds to partisan leftist organizations and media outlets).

Well, no more. Donald Trump got elected the first time and the second time because the one thing that stood out about him was his unwillingness to back down, and to “Fight! Fight! Fight!” As time has passed and he has been subjected to these same kinds of Democratic Party slander games, instead of folding he has grown stronger and more defiant. And his unwillingness to bow has taught the new generation of Republicans to fight as hard, to not back down, and to stick it right back at Democrats when they try this game.

Today congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-South Carolina) demonstrated she is part of this new generation. In questioning several witnesses about USAID’s absurd and corrupt funding of queer projects in foreign nations, she bluntly used the correct but shortened term for those who like to cross-dress, “tranny” for “transvestites.” This did not sit well with one Democrat, congressman Gerry Connolly (D-Virginia). Watch and be entertained by her response:
» Read more

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New Mexico’s Spaceport America loses another customer

New Mexico’s Spaceport America, first established in the early 2000s with the expectation it would soon see hundreds of suborbital Virgin Galactic tourist flights per year — launches that never happened — has now lost another customer

In an announcement made late Friday (Jan. 31, 2025) evening, the Experimental Sounding Rocket Association (ESRA) will be holding its annual Intercollegiate Rocket Engineering Competition (IREC) at the Midland International Air & Space Port in Midland, Texas, from June 9-14, 2025.

The announcement marks the first venue change for the IREC since the 2017 competition.

For seven years beginning in 2017 and concluding in 2024, ESRA along with the New Mexico Spaceport Authority (NMSA) partnered and jointly held IREC at Spaceport America. During that time, the IREC rebranded as the Spaceport America Cup (SAC) and grew significantly. The growth period of over a half-decade culminated with the 2024 Spaceport America Cup which featured the largest number of competing teams and launches (122) of any previous competition.

No reason for the shift to Texas was mentioned.

The Spaceport America boondoggle has ended up costing New Mexico taxpayers millions, with little to show for it. This change will only increase the losses, and raises more questions about whether that state government should continue pouring money into this black hole. No orbital rocket companies have any interest in launching from there, and Virgin Galactic won’t be launching again for at least a year, and when (or if) it resumes launches it will be doing only a small number of flights. Thus the spaceport’s customer base is very small, and shrinking.

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ISRO considering doing more docking tests with Spadex satellites

India’s space agency ISRO has delayed the undocking of its two Spadex satellites as it considers a plan to do more docking tests.

The original plan was to have the chase satellite complete only one docking with the target vehicle, after which the two satellites would separate and spend the next two years doing different work. That plan is being reconsidered.

[Isro chairman V.] Narayanan said in Sriharikota that they have to think of the money involved in such projects and utilise it to the maximum. “Now we are in the process of reviewing when to do the undocking, the power connections and when to totally separate them again and dock again. All these processes are going on. We do not want to undock and leave it,” the Isro chairman said.

“We have loaded five kg of propellant on both the satellites. The propellant is needed for docking and undocking exercises. Currently we have 60 to 70 per cent of the propellant (as of January 29) remaining in the spacecraft. There are going to be a lot of experiments in the docking, undocking, power connection exercises and it is not a one time exercise,” he said.

Sources at ISRO also suggest there may be issues with the docking that still need analysis.

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NASA calls for the private sector to launch VIPER to the Moon

As a follow-up of its August request for suggestions on how to save its cancelled VIPER rover mission to the Moon, NASA has now issued a request for actual proposals from the private sector for flying the mission, due on March 3, 2025.

The Announcement for Partnership Proposal contains proposal instructions and evaluation criteria for a new Lunar Volatiles Science Partnership. Responses are due Monday, March 3. After evaluating submissions, any selections by the agency will require respondents to submit a second, more detailed, proposal. NASA is expected to make a decision on the VIPER mission this summer.

…As part of an agreement, NASA would contribute the existing VIPER rover as-is. Potential partners would need to arrange for the integration and successful landing of the rover on the Moon, conduct a science/exploration campaign, and disseminate VIPER-generated science data. The partner may not disassemble the rover and use its instruments or parts separately from the VIPER mission. NASA’s selection approach will favor proposals that enable data from the mission’s science instruments to be shared openly with anyone who wishes to use it.

Expect a number of companies to tout their proposals in press releases in the coming weeks.

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NASA suspends numerous advisory committees to comply with Trump executive orders

In what appears to be an over-reaction by NASA, it has ordered that numerous science advisory committees suspend all meetings and work so that it make sure they are complying with Trump’s executive orders requiring the removal of all Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

More here and here.

The orders listed twenty different working groups as well as the cancellation of the first in-person meeting of the Mercury working group this week.

In reviewing the released list of these groups, only two, the EDIA Working Group (Equity, Diversity, Inclusion, and Accessibility) and the H2O program (Here to Observe), are expressly focused on promoting these racist policies. EDIA’s job is to make sure DEI is implemented across all working groups and science projects. H2O is an educational program restricted to “under-represented students” only, which really means minorities only. All other kids need not apply.

All the other research groups are focused on research and science, not DEI. While a review of their work to make sure they don’t have racial quotas might make sense, it seems NASA’s memos shutting them down entirely during that review appears to be overkill, and might actually be an example of malicious compliance, a tactic used by the bureaucracy to generate bad press against a politician’s policy orders. By over reacting the bureaucrats try to make the elected official’s new policy look stupid.

For example, the cancellation of the first in-person meeting of the Mercury exploration working group (MExAG) seems absurd. It was scheduled to occur this week in Maryland to discuss for example the Japanese/Italian BepiColombo mission, and the sudden cancellation resulted in quotes like this:

“We are forced, therefore, to cancel MExAG 2025,” the Mercury committee’s chair Carolyn Ernst, a planetary scientist with Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, wrote in a memo obtained by Space.com. “This turn of events is shocking and concerning, and is extra painful given the order comes four days before our first in-person meeting.” Some committee members had already begun travel for the meeting, Ernst added.

The nearly three-day hybrid meeting was expected to include at up 200 scientists attending either in person of virtually, one scientist Ed Rivera-Valentin shared on the social media site Bluesky. It was expected to include a number of researchers connected to the BepiColombo Mercury mission run by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and the European Space Agency. The probe just made its sixth flyby of Mercury on Jan. 8.

I can see no logical reason for NASA’s management to cancel this meeting other than to create bad press for Trump.

There one other possibility. NASA’s management might simply be running scared, and has decided it must over-react in order to make sure it doesn’t get fired for appearing defiant.

I must add that the suspension of the Earth science working groups is not related to DEI, but to adhere to the Trump executive orders requiring a review of the government’s global warming and climate research. For that order a larger suspension of work makes more sense.

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Boeing writes off another half billion dollars due to Starliner

In filing an annual report to the SEC, Boeing revealed that has written off another half billion dollars due to Starliner delays and technical problems, bringing the total the company has lost on the capsule to more than two billion.

In the company’s 10-K annual filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Feb. 3, Boeing said it took $523 million in charges on Starliner in 2024. The company blamed the losses on “schedule delays and higher testing and certification costs as well as higher costs for post certification missions.”

Both Boeing and NASA remain utterly silent on the future of Starliner. It remains uncertified for operational manned flights, which means Boeing continues to earn nothing from it. Will it have to fly another manned mission on its own dime to get that certification? Or will NASA instead pay it to fly a cargo mission to ISS, as rumors have suggested, to prove the capsule is ready for manned flights?

No one knows. Nor do we know if Boeing will either sell off its space division or cancel Starliner entirely and thus free itself of the problem.

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The first real Republican president in a half century

Which president is different than all the others?
Which president is different than all the others?

When George Bush Jr. was elected president in 2000, he also won majorities in both the House and the Senate in Congress. At the time I remember quite naively saying that he now was in a position to force through some real change, because any radical leftist proposal needed three different signatures, and the Republicans in all three branches just weren’t going to give it.

Hah! What a fool I was. During Bush Jr’s eight year rein the federal government grew in leaps and bounds, even more than under Bill Clinton, with every leftist desire fulfilled, though generally quietly in order to avoid outraging the American public that wanted change.

Nor was Bush Jr. the exception to the rule. No, every Republican president since Dwight Eisenhower has been nothing more than a Democrat in disguise, and that includes Donald Trump during his first term as president.

Only now do we see a real conservative president in power. You need only look at the official portraits of all these presidents to the right to understand this. Just compare Donald Trump’s official picture in 2017 with this picture in 2025. In 2017 he was a happy leader who innocently thought the administrative state he was in charge of would do as he said.

In 2025 he is innocent no longer. Instead, he is a hardened warrior ready to do battle. And that is exactly what we have seen, a Republican president unlike any since before World War II.

For once, the voters got a choice on election day. For once, the Republican who said he wanted to change things really meant it.
» Read more

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British rocket start-up Orbex wins two-launch contract from Italian orbital tug company D-Orbit

The British rocket start-up Orbex, which hopes to complete its first test orbital launch of its Prime rocket this year, after years of regulatory delays, has gotten a two-launch contract from the Italian orbital tug company D-Orbit.

The contract appears to be part of Europe’s effort to have its European payloads launch on European rockets. Previously D-Orbit tugs have mostly been launched by SpaceX because the only available European rockets, Ariane-6 and Vega-C, have either not been operational or available. Moreover, all these rockets are too big for D-Orbit’s tugs, which thus have to fly as secondary payloads.

Orbex’s Prime rocket is small, and so the tugs can be launched as the primary payload. The rocket however is not yet operational, unlike for example Rocket Lab’s small Electron rocket. The decision to go with Orbex’s untested rocket suggests Europe is forcing D-Orbit to sign with a European rocket company.

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Indian navigation satellite stranded in wrong orbit

Though the GSLV launch rocket worked as planned, putting India’s new navigation satellite in the proper transfer orbit on January 29, 2025, the satellite’s own engines have failed to fire.

Subsequent to the launch, the solar panels on board the satellite were successfully deployed and power generation is nominal. Communication with the ground station has been established. But the orbit raising operations towards positioning the satellite to the designated orbital slot could not be carried out as the valves for admitting the oxidizer to fire the thrusters for orbit raising did not open.

The satellite systems are healthy and the satellite is currently in elliptical orbit. Alternate mission strategies for utilising the satellite for navigation in an elliptical orbit is being worked out. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted sentence suggest India’s space agency ISRO has determined there is no way to raise the orbit to its proper height. With the solar panels deployed and the spacecraft’s orbit having low point that dips into the Earth’s atmosphere, the satellite’s orbit will likely decay relatively quickly. If so, the satellite’s mission will be a failure, not a good way to start what ISRO’s hopes to be its busiest year.

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