A solar tornado five times the size of the Earth.
A solar tornado five times the size of the Earth.
A solar tornado five times the size of the Earth.
Tag: sun
A solar tornado five times the size of the Earth.
Venus Express was blinded for four days after being hit by a coronal mass ejection from the Sun.
Venus Express was blinded for four days last week after being hit by a coronal mass ejection from the Sun.
Venus Express was blinded for four days last week after being hit by a coronal mass ejection from the Sun.
An up and down Sun
Late last week NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center released its monthly update of the ongoing solar cycle sunspot activity, covering February 2012. Though I am slightly late in posting it, as I do every month, you can now see the full graph below the fold. I have also created a close-up of the graph’s relevant area, shown on the left, because it is hard to decipher what is happening on the full graph.
Since the Sun began it ramp up to solar maximum back in 2009, the pattern has been consistent, two steps forward, one step back. First there are several months in a row in which the number of sunspots show a steep rise, followed immediately by several months in which the sunspot numbers decline just as steeply, though by not as much. All told, since 2009 we have seen this pattern repeat four times.
February’s numbers have continued that pattern.
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The solar storm hit the Earth today, and has so far caused no damage.
Chicken Little wrong again: The strongest solar storm since 2006 hit the Earth today, and has so far caused no damage.
Chicken Little wrong again: The strongest solar storm since 2006 hit the Earth today, and has so far caused no damage.
The sun yesterday emitted the second biggest flare since 2006, with two coronal mass ejections heading for the Earth
The sun yesterday emitted its second biggest flare since 2006, with two coronal mass ejections heading for the Earth.
None of this will kill us, so stay calm. It is, however, a wonderful opportunity for solar scientists to study an active sun, something that might become rare in the coming decades.
The sun yesterday emitted its second biggest flare since 2006, with two coronal mass ejections heading for the Earth.
None of this will kill us, so stay calm. It is, however, a wonderful opportunity for solar scientists to study an active sun, something that might become rare in the coming decades.
The last transit of Venus across the face of the Sun for the next century is only three months away.
Set your calendar: The last transit of Venus across the face of the Sun for the next century is only three months away.
Set your calendar: The last transit of Venus across the face of the Sun for the next century is only three months away.
Solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have once again adjusted their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum.
Solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have once again adjusted their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in May of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Five out of the last six months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. This predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years.
This new prediction is slightly higher than their prediction of 63 from two weeks ago. As they note, even this new number leaves us with a very weak solar maximum.
Solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have once again adjusted their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in May of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Five out of the last six months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. This predicted size still make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years.
This new prediction is slightly higher than their prediction of 63 from two weeks ago. As they note, even this new number leaves us with a very weak solar maximum.
A burst of aurora for reasons that are “unclear.”
In related Sun news: A burst of aurora this week for reasons that are “unclear.”
In related Sun news: A burst of aurora this week for reasons that are “unclear.”
A weak maximum now expected
The solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center significantly downgraded their prediction today for the upcoming solar maximum.
Unfortunately, the Marshall scientists don’t archive their previous predictions, merely changing the text of their webpage periodically. However, I have archived most of these predictions as they have changed. Here they are:
» Read more
The link between sunspots and climate
In a preprint paper published today on the Los Alamos astro-ph website and accepted for publication in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Norwegian scientists have found a strong correlation between the length of the solar sunspot cycle and the Earth’s temperature during the following cycle. From the abstract:
Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 ◦ C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. [emphasis mine]
You can download a copy of the paper here [pdf].
Their paper finds that if a particular sunspot cycle is longer with less activity, the climate will show significant cooling during the next cycle.
The paper makes several important points:
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The Sun goes bust
It is that time of the month again. Today NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center today released its monthly update of the ongoing solar cycle sunspot activity, covering January 2012. I have posted the graph below the fold.
For the second month in a row the Sun’s sunspot activity plunged. The drop in activity has been so steep that it has cancelled out almost two thirds of the activity rise that occurred during the last half of 2010. In fact, the drop brings the Sun’s sunspot count back to numbers comparable with March of last year, hardly a sign of a fast ramp up to solar maximum, which is what solar scientists have come to expect the Sun to do. Instead, the Sun’s activity during this ramp up has fluctuated wildly, going up strongly for several months and then dropping precipitously for another few months. These wild swings have now repeated themselves four times since the fall of 2010.
» Read more
Data issued last week without fanfare by both the UK’s Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit has confirmed that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.
Data issued last week without fanfare by both the UK’s Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit has confirmed that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.
The article also discusses at great length the additional influence the sun and its sunspot cycle might have on the climate, something I have discussed here at great length. However, the above factoid is the article’s most important data point.
Data issued last week without fanfare by both the UK’s Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit has confirmed that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.
The article also discusses at great length the additional influence the sun and its sunspot cycle might have on the climate, something I have discussed here at great length. However, the above factoid is the article’s most important data point.
Possible aurora tonight
Tonight is the night to look at the sky, as the solar storm that hit the Earth today could produce spectacular aurora in lower latitudes.
Tonight is the night to look at the sky, as the solar storm that hit the Earth today could produce spectacular aurora in lower latitudes.
The biggest solar storm to be aimed at the Earth in seven years is expected to reach us by Tuesday.
The biggest coronal mass ejection to be aimed at the Earth in seven years is expected to reach us by Tuesday.
No need to panic. Not only is the storm still relatively mild compared to past eruptions, the airline and electrical industries are actually well prepared for this event. However, if you want to see the aurora, this will probably be a good opportunity.
The biggest coronal mass ejection to be aimed at the Earth in seven years is expected to reach us by Tuesday.
No need to panic. Not only is the storm still relatively mild compared to past eruptions, the airline and electrical industries are actually well prepared for this event. However, if you want to see the aurora, this will probably be a good opportunity.
Scientists have postponed until 2015 the decision on whether clocks should be linked to the Earth’s rotation around the Sun.
Scientists have postponed until 2015 the decision on whether clocks should be linked to the Earth’s rotation around the Sun.
Scientists have postponed until 2015 the decision on whether clocks should be linked to the Earth’s rotation around the Sun.
The Sun calms down in December
It’s that time again! As I do every month, it’s time to post Space Weather Prediction Center’s monthly updated graph showing the Sun’s solar cycle sunspot activity. The graph itself can be seen below the fold.
After five months of quickly increasing sunspot activity, the Sun in December finally took a rest, with the sunspot numbers dropping down to almost exactly the solar activity scientists had expected at this time, according to their May 2009 prediction. Interestingly, this might be the first time since I began tracking the solar cycle in 2008 that the prediction actually matched that month’s activity.
» Read more
Comet Lovejoy lost its tail in skimming through the Sun’s atmosphere
Comet Lovejoy lost its tail in skimming through the Sun’s atmosphere Thursday.
Comet Lovejoy lost its tail in skimming through the Sun’s atmosphere Thursday.
Solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center up their prediction for the next solar maximum
The solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have upped their prediction for the next solar maximum, calling for a sunspot number of 99 in February 2013. Their previous prediction called for a maximum sunspot number of 89 in March 2013.
The solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have upped their prediction for the next solar maximum, calling for a sunspot number of 99 in February 2013. Their previous prediction called for a maximum sunspot number of 89 in March 2013.
Ramping way up!
The monthly update of the solar cycle graph produced by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center was released yesterday. I have posted the graph below the fold.
The fast ramp up to solar maximum is continuing. For the fifth month in a row the Sun’s sunspot activity leaped upward. Not only has the sunspot activity once again exceeded the prediction for this particular time period, the activity is shot way above the solar maximum peak predicted for several years hence. This behavior is far different then what we’ve seen during the just completed long and deep solar minimum, when the Sun consistently underperformed the predictions for sunspot activity. Now it appears to be outperforming the predictions.
» Read more
Two climate papers of interest
When I appear on radio and am talking about climate change, I often get the same questions over and over.
- Is the climate warming?
- If so, is human behavior an important factor for causing that warming?
- How much does the sun influence climate change?
- Is the ozone hole linked to climate change?
The truth is that, right now, no one can really answer any of these questions with any certainty. While a large majority of climate scientists might be convinced the Earth is warming and that human activity is causing this warming, the public has great doubts about these claims, partly because of the untrustworthy behavior of many of these climate scientists and partly because the science itself is often confusing.
We simply don’t yet have enough data. Worse, much of the data we do have is tainted, unreliable because of the misconduct and political activism of the very climate scientists who are trying to prove the case for man-made global warming.
Two new papers, published today in Geophysical Research Letters, add some interesting but small data points to this whole subject.
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An analysis of the sun’s past solar cycles suggests that the sun might not be going into a prolonged minimum
A new analysis of the sun’s past solar cycles suggests that the sun might not be going into a prolonged minimum, as indicated by its recent lack of sunspot activity.
A new analysis of the sun’s past solar cycles suggests that the sun might not be going into a prolonged minimum, as indicated by its recent lack of sunspot activity.
A fired up Sun
As it does every month, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center today released its monthly update showing the ongoing changes of the Sun’s solar cycle sunspot activity. I have posted the graph below the fold.
For the fourth month in a row the Sun’s sunspot activity has leaped upward. In fact, for the first time since I have been tracking sunspot activity, beginning in 2008, the Sun’s sunspot activity exceeds the predicted activity by a significant amount. Since the end of the previous maximum, the Sun had consistently failed to meet the expectations of solar scientists by producing far fewer sunspots than expected.
In the past few months, however, the Sun has recovered, its activity firing upward, including some of the most active and largest sunspots in years.
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The largest sunspot in years released the largest flare in years on Thursday
The largest sunspot in years released the largest flare in years on Thursday.
The largest sunspot in years released the largest flare in years on Thursday.
The largest sunspot in years appears on the sun
The largest sunspot in years has appeared on the sun.
The largest sunspot in years has appeared on the sun.
The long minimum continues
Though it has been very clear for the past few months that the sun has finally transitioned from solar minimum and begun its ramp up to solar maximum, that ramp up has also been very slow and wimpy.
On October 9, 2011 the scientists at Physikalisch- Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) posted an updated summary of the satellite data that has been carefully measuring the variation of the sun’s total solar irradiance since 1978. The graph below, which can be found here [pdf], brings that data up through the present. (I had posted the previous update about a year ago.)
I have added a brown line to illustrate how deep the recently ended solar minimum was, compared to previous minimums. Note also that this most recent minimum would also be far below the minimum prior to 1975. I have also added a blue line to show that the sun has only very recently finally brightened enough to finally exceed the previous minimum. All told, the sun remained dimmer than the previous minimum for over five years!
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The sun’s activity goes boom
Today NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center released its monthly graph of the Sun’s solar cycle sunspot activity. Posted below, it shows the Sun’s activity finally leaping upward in September, after several months of less than expected performance.
It is interesting to see how the sun’s rising sunspot activity for the past year has followed a consistent fluctuating pattern, whereby a sudden monthly jump in sunspots is then followed by several months of decline. If this pattern repeats itself again, we should expect to see the numbers ease off again in October and November.
Regardless, the higher sunspot counts for September are more in line with past predictions. In fact, the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center have increased their prediction for the time and intensity for the peak of the sun’s maximum. Last month they had called for a peak in May 2013 with a sunspot number of 70. Now, they are predicting the peak will come in April 2013 with a number of 77. They note however that even this higher number will result in the weakest maximum in more than a hundred years.
Sunspot 1302 Continues to Turn Toward Earth
Giant sunspot 1302 turns its aim towards Earth.
Giant sunspot 1302 turns its aim towards Earth.
The sun’s weak maximum continues
The monthly graph from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center of the Sun’s solar cycle sunspot activity is out and I have posted it below. Though activity increased for the second month in a row, the totals are still below the activity levels of March and April 2011.
I am beginning to think that I sound like a broken record. This monthly graph once again suggests that the next solar maximum will be weak, possibly weaker than the most up-to-date predictions for the next solar maximum. And even if that prediction is correct, the data continues to point towards a quieter Sun, with the likelihood of a long period of no sunspots beginning in the next decade.
Based on past history, the consequences of a long Maunder-type minimum, where there are no sunspots for decades, should be very profound. Every time the Sun has gone this quiet in the past, the Earth’s climate has cooled. Furthermore, new results just released add weight to this conclusion. A less active Sun allows more intergalactic cosmic rays to hit the atmosphere, and the CLOUD experiment at CERN strongly suggests that the higher rate of cosmic rays could in turn increase the atmosphere’s cloudiness, thereby reflecting more light and energy and making the Earth colder.
Kepler team pushes for mission extension
The Kepler team pushes for a mission extension in order to find Earth-sized planets.
The Kepler spacecraft has hit an unexpected obstacle as it patiently watches the heavens for exoplanets: too many rowdy young stars. The orbiting probe detects small dips in the brightness of a star that occur when a planet crosses its face. But an analysis of some 2,500 of the tens of thousands of Sun-like stars detected in Kepler’s field of view has found that the stars themselves flicker more than predicted, with the largest number varying twice as much as the Sun. That makes it harder to detect Earth-sized bodies. As a result, the analysis suggests that Kepler will need more than double its planned mission life of three-and-a-half years to achieve its main goal of determining how common Earth-like planets are in the Milky Way.
While it is important to find those Earth-sized planets, to me the important discovery here is that Kepler is confirming what previous research has suggested: Stars like our Sun are generally far more active and variable than the Sun itself. Which means that either the Sun is unusual, or has been unusually inactive during recorded human history.
The Kepler team pushes for a mission extension in order to find Earth-sized planets.
The Kepler spacecraft has hit an unexpected obstacle as it patiently watches the heavens for exoplanets: too many rowdy young stars. The orbiting probe detects small dips in the brightness of a star that occur when a planet crosses its face. But an analysis of some 2,500 of the tens of thousands of Sun-like stars detected in Kepler’s field of view has found that the stars themselves flicker more than predicted, with the largest number varying twice as much as the Sun. That makes it harder to detect Earth-sized bodies. As a result, the analysis suggests that Kepler will need more than double its planned mission life of three-and-a-half years to achieve its main goal of determining how common Earth-like planets are in the Milky Way.
While it is important to find those Earth-sized planets, to me the important discovery here is that Kepler is confirming what previous research has suggested: Stars like our Sun are generally far more active and variable than the Sun itself. Which means that either the Sun is unusual, or has been unusually inactive during recorded human history.
A blank sun during solar maximum
Though it is not yet official, it appears the sun is blank of sunspots today, for the first time since January 16.
Solar scientists have concluded that the solar minimum of the past four years has ended and that the sun is now moving towards solar maximum. The recent activity in August has seemed to confirm this. However, once the minimum has ended, the sun should not have any further blank days until the maximum is over and the sun is ramping back down to solar minimum. That the sun should appear blank again during its ramp up to solar maximum is quite unusual, probably unprecedented, and is further evidence that the sun is heading towards a period of little or no solar activity.
Though it is not yet official, it appears the sun is blank of sunspots today, for the first time since January 16.
Solar scientists have concluded that the solar minimum of the past four years has ended and that the sun is now moving towards solar maximum. The recent activity in August has seemed to confirm this. However, once the minimum has ended, the sun should not have any further blank days until the maximum is over and the sun is ramping back down to solar minimum. That the sun should appear blank again during its ramp up to solar maximum is quite unusual, probably unprecedented, and is further evidence that the sun is heading towards a period of little or no solar activity.