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The uncertainty of science: A science poster released at an American Geophysical Union conference this week finds again that the global warming climate models used by policy makers have all failed to predict what has actually happened.
Some devastating quotes from the poster:
[W]e find that at the global scale, climate models are on the verge of failing to adequately capture observed changes in the average temperature over the past 10 to 30 years—the period of the greatest human influence on the atmosphere. At the regional scale, specifically across the United States, climate models largely fail to replicate known precipitation changes both in sign as well as magnitude.
On the first count, the near inability of climate model projections to contain the observed global temperature trends, it is likely that the climate model overestimation of the earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity—an overestimation which averages about 40 percent—is playing a large role in the models’ gross exaggeration of the current rate of temperature rise (which, for example, has been virtually zero during the past 16 years).
On the second count, the general inability of general circulation models to even get the sign of the observed precipitation changes across the U.S. correct, much less the magnitude, likely stems from the complexities of the climate system on spatial and temporal scales that lie far beneath those of current generation GCMs [general climate models].
The models predicted an increase in global temperature. In the past 16 years there has been no increase. The models predicted an increase in drought and a drop in precipitation. Instead, there has been more rain.
And from the conclusion:
It is impossible to present reliable future projections from a collection of climate models which generally cannot simulate observed change. As a consequence, we recommend that unless/until the collection of climate models can be demonstrated to accurately capture observed characteristics of known climate changes, policymakers should avoid basing any decisions upon projections made from them. Further, those policies which have already be established using projections from these climate models should be revisited.
The poster also notes that the IPCC and EPA rely heavily on these models, none of which are actually reliable.