Year: 2025

Germany commits almost a million dollars to build off-shore launch platform

9:08 am

The Germany government has now allocated $897,000 to a private consortium of four companies to help finance its promised but delayed an off-shore launch platform.

The North Sea launch platform is being developed by the German Offshore Spaceport Alliance (GOSA), a joint venture formed in December 2020 by Tractebel DOC Offshore, MediaMobil, OHB, and Harren Shipping Services. The platform will be constructed on the 170-metre-long Combi Dock I vessel and will accommodate launchers with a mass of between 36 and 52 tonnes. A 2020 feasibility study stated that the development and operation of the North Sea launch platform would cost between €22 and €30 million over six years.

The consortium had first announced the project in 2023, with the first launch of several suborbital test rockets in 2024. Since then little has been heard of this project, with those launches never occurring.

If built as promised, this platform would accommodate rockets as large as the Falcon Heavy. Its goal, besides offering the platform to all rocket companies, is apparently to give German rocket startups the option of a German spaceport so they don’t have to depend on other countries.

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Falklands public wants the freedom to choose between OneWeb and Starlink

8:53 am

Even as the Falklands government is demanding its money back from OneWeb for not activating its service on time, it appears the public on those islands has buying and using Starlink terminals, even though it is presently illegal to use it there.

The high level of Starlink usage sparked a successful petition backed by 70% of the island’s population. This petition demanded both a reduction of the £5,400 FIG VSAT licence fee and formal approval for Starlink’s operation in the Falkland Islands.

In response, a Starlink Select Committee – comprising all of the island’s MLAs – convened from July to October 2024. The committee formally endorsed the petition’s demands, and the proposal was subsequently forwarded to the Falkland Islands Government (FIG) for implementation. However, the effective date for this approval has now been delayed until April.

Because Sure International holds an exclusive monopoly telecommunications licence, Starlink’s use in the islands is currently illegal. Nonetheless, this restriction has not prevented the widespread installation of hundreds of Starlink terminals, which remain unlicensed.

Sure International apparently provides internet service though traditional land lines. The cost difference compared to Starlink is considerable, with Starlink being far cheaper and providing much faster speeds. Meanwhile, OneWeb has failed to deliver and is losing this business. By April expect Starlink to be approved.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Rocket Lab launches 5 Kinéis satellites for its constellation for the internet of things

1:54 pm

Rocket Lab today successfully launched five more internet of things satellites for the French company Kinéis, bringing its planned 25 satellite constellation to 20 satellites.

Rocket Lab has the contract to launch the entire constellation, and this was the fourth of five launches in that deal.

The 2025 launch race:

17 SpaceX
6 China
1 Blue Origin
1 India
1 Japan
1 Russia
1 Rocket Lab

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New calculations raise odds from 1.2% to 2.3% that asteroid will impact Earth in ’32

11:36 am

New calculations have increased the chances that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032 from 1.2% to 2.3%.

Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size. Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across.

There remains great uncertainty in these numbers. We will really not know for certain if the asteroid will hit us until its orbit is studied for the next few years. Moreover, its size and make-up is also not known precisely yet. It could be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet. If the larger size, it poses a much greater risk, though that risk shrinks again if it is a rubble-pile asteroid that will simply break apart upon hitting the atmosphere.

This is not something to take lightly. Though the asteroid is not a world-destroyer, it does have the ability to cause significant damage, depending on where it hits. As its arrival is not for eight years, there is even time to quickly put together an unmanned mission to study it. (In the past I would never said this, but the domination of private enterprise in our present competitive space industry makes many things possible that were impossible when NASA and the government ran everything.)

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More indications balloon company Space Perspective is about to go bankrupt

11:24 am

New details reported yesterday strongly suggest that the high altitude balloon company Space Perspective has been unable to find new investors and is on the verge of shutting.

In a February 5 email to stakeholders, Interim CEO Michael Savage provided the latest updates, shedding light on failed funding efforts, the company’s dire financial situation, and attempts to restructure its debt. The email also acknowledged the gravity of the challenges ahead, hinting at the possible closure of operations.

Savage’s email outlined efforts to secure funding, including meetings with investors Fortuna and Broadlight, both of whom ultimately declined to proceed. Savage explained that while there was initial interest, the company’s mounting debt and financial instability deterred further investment. “Both [investors] have expressed interest, but despite the current circumstances and since Nov./Dec. 2024, they feel that their LPs would not stomach the numbers,” Savage wrote.

The company has previously announced it was shifting operations out of the Cape Canaveral area to a location 90 miles north where costs were less as it searched for new investors. This new report suggests this move and the search have not worked and the company will soon go out of business.

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ULA swapping Vulcan for Atlas-5 for first 2025 launch

11:18 am

ULA has decided to destack the Vulcan rocket it had planned as its first launch in 2025 (launching a military payload) and is now replacing it with one of its remaining Atlas-5 rockets to put the first batch of satellites for Amazon’s Kuiper internet constellation.

It appears the military is not ready to certify this launch after the second Vulcan launch in October 2024 experienced a problem with one of its strap-on boosters. The payload got to its proper orbit, but the loss of that booster’s nozzle appears to be an issue the military remains concerned about.

Rather than wait, ULA decided to switch to the Kuiper launch. The company wants to complete up to 20 launches in 2025, many of which are for Amazon using its last ten or so Atlas-5 rockets. When it can start commercial launches of Vulcan remains somewhat uncertain. The military has indicated it will make a final decision of certification in the spring, and has also said that first operational flight will follow soon after.

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Boeing notifies SLS employees of impending layoffs

11:04 am

The real cost of SLS and Orion
The expected real per launch cost of SLS and Orion

Boeing yesterday sent a notice out to its employees working on NASA’s SLS rocket that up 400 could be laid off due to “revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations.”

Boeing SLS employees were informed Feb. 7 that the company was making preparations to cut up to 400 jobs from the program because of “revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations.” The specific positions being considered for elimination were not announced but would account for a significant fraction of the overall SLS workforce at the company.

This is probably the most significant update from the entire SLS program since it was first proposed by George Bush Jr in 2004. All other announcements either told us there were going to be more delays, the cost was going up, or there were newly discovered technical problems caused by bad management or sloppy work. This announcement instead actually indicates that NASA management — under pressure from the new Trump administration — is finally addressing these failures after two decades.

In the past few months there have been many indications from the swamp in Washington that it is finally beginning to recognize the absurdity and stupidity of the whole SLS/Orion infrastructure, a realization I outlined in detail fourteen years ago, soon after the project was reshaped from the absurd and stupid Ares project under Bush Jr. to SLS/Orion under Obama.

It took however the arrival of Trump (changed himself from his first administration) to do it. Trump is doing what no president has done in our lifetimes, going through all federal programs and ripping them apart if they are failing to do what they promise. And he is doing it with full and amazingly enthusiastic support of the American people. No one cares that government employees are “crying.” Nor does anyone pay attention any longer to these sob stories, put out by the propaganda press. It have proven itself to be habitual liars whose only interest has been prop up the Washington swamp, and everyone now recognizes it.

Expect a major reshaping of NASA and its entire manned program. We will still be heading to the stars, but finally doing it.

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Arthur Clarke in 1964 predicts the future in 2000

6:01 pm

An evening pause: Something to ponder over the weekend. The video only includes two short clips from this 1964 BBC show, and thus picks two that have ended up to be largely right. And though Clarke’s predictions were not all right, he hit the mark an incredibly high number of times.

Hat tip John Jossy.

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The weird landscape in Mars’ glacial country

1:33 pm

Overview map
Glacier country in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars

The weird landscape in Mars' glacier country

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on November 4, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels the features in the lowland below the mesas “ribbed terrain.” To me it looks like peeling paint. What it is however is glacial material, a lot of it. The white dot on the overview map above marks the location, in the middle of the 2,000-mile-long mid-latitude strip in the northern hemisphere I label glacier country, because practically every high resolution image of this region shows glacial features like those on the right.

The mesa with the crater on top gives a clue on the geological history. This is chaos terrain, a region of random mesas cross-crossed with canyons and wide low plains, as shown in the inset. The entire surface was probably once at the same height as the top of that mesa with the crater. Over time glacial ice eroded away along fault lines. As that sublimation process continued, the fault lines widened to became canyons, then the flat plains, with the isolated mesas remaining between.

The “peeling paint” terrain is likely a layer of ice that is in the process of sublimating away.

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SpaceX to use older Dragon capsule for next manned launch because of issues with new capsule

9:12 am

Ars Technica today reported that because of continuing battery issues with the new Dragon manned capsule, SpaceX now plans to use the older Endurance Dragon capsule for the next manned launch to ISS and prevent further delays in bringing home the two Starliner astronauts.

NASA now believes the vehicle will not be ready for its debut launch until late April. Therefore, according to sources at the agency, NASA has decided to swap vehicles for Crew-10. The space agency has asked SpaceX to bring forward the C210 vehicle, which returned to Earth last March after completing the Crew-7 mission.

Known as Endurance, the spacecraft was next due to fly the private Axiom-4 mission to the space station later this spring. Sources said SpaceX is now working toward a no-earlier-than March 12 launch date for Crew-10 on Endurance. If this flight occurs on time—and the date is not certain, as it depends on other missions on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 manifest—the Crew-9 astronauts, including Wilmore and Williams, could fly home on March 19. They would have spent 286 days in space. Although not a record for a NASA human spaceflight, this would be far longer than their original mission, which was expected to last eight to 30 days.

The new capsule will then be used for Axiom’s fourth commercial flight to ISS, AX-4, presently scheduled for later in the spring.

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