AST SpaceMobile: Blue Origin’s launch failures delays our commercial operations until 2027
The satellite company AST SpaceMobile revealed yesterday that it no longer expects to begin commercial operations of its cell-to-satellite constellation by the end of this year, that the recent launch failures by Blue Origin will delay the initiation of that commercial service until the first half of 2027.
William Blair said Scott Wisniewski, AST SpaceMobile’s chief strategy officer, made the estimate June 2 during the bank’s annual growth stock conference in Chicago.
Before the loss of a New Glenn rocket in a static-fire test May 28, AST SpaceMobile had aimed to start early services at the end of 2026 with at least 45 satellites in low Earth orbit, helping anchor customers such as AT&T and Verizon in the United States plug terrestrial service gaps. The Texas-based venture had retained that goal even after the loss of its seventh BlueBird satellite on a New Glenn launch April 19.
The April 19th New Glenn launch failure was the first blow. After this the company said it still hoped to get enough of its Bluebird satellites launched to start service in 2026, as it was negotiating with other rocket companies. The May 28th New Glenn launchpad explosion was the final blow. AST now realizes that even with new launch providers, it can’t get enough satellites in orbit this year.
Blue Origin’s failures here are significant to the entire satellite industry. That industry needs more launch capacity from more providers. Right now, there is a dearth, with only SpaceX capable of launching large payloads frequently. Not only is Blue Origin’s New Glenn grounded, ULA’s new Vulcan rocket is grounded as well. And Arianespace’s Ariane-6 rocket is operational, it is not yet able to launch more than once every two months, and its manifest is already completely filled.
New large rockets by Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, and Relativity are expected to launch before the end of the year, but it will be a while before they will be ready to pick up the slack. And though Blue Origin says it will fly again before the end of 2026, there is great doubt in the industry about this claim. At the moment its recovery operations following the launchpad explosion are slowed as the Space Force assesses the damage to the range.
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