SpaceX’s IPO: A quick look at the financial world’s present take
As SpaceX and the Wall Street gear up for the June 12, 2026 initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX stock, there have been a number of articles published in the past week expressing skepticism about it, mostly aimed at trying to predict what will happen in order to advise potential buyers.
Much of this is guesswork, but the people speaking are people who do this for a living, so it might be worthwhile to take a look at what what they have to say. Below are a few examples.
First, the New Yorker published a detailed article questioning the overall $1.75 trillion valuation of SpaceX listed in its IPO. It doubts the reality of the company’s AI division, its plan to launch a constellation of data satellites, and notes that Starlink and the launch divisions don’t make up the difference. Overall, its analysis concludes the valuation is over-rated, and should be approached with caution.
Business Insider also posted an article expressing reservations about the IPO’s unusual requirement that 30% of all shares be reserved for the retail market, made up of small individual buyers.
Here’s how it’s instead been interpreted by the retail-investor commentariat: They’re capitalizing on trader excitement and relying on it to supplement demand from institutions. The heavy allocation is essentially setting up retail to hold the bag after longer-term shareholders take profits.
I myself have had this analysis confirmed by one source, that the major big stock buyers are themselves planning to hold back their purchases for at least the first few months, believing the stock price will be pumped up initially by this flood of small enthusiastic buyers. They will wait for it to drop — as they expect — and then buy, taking their profits then.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal posted two articles with contradictory conclusions:
- Morgan Stanley Sees SpaceX’s Revenue Reaching $3.4 Trillion in 2040
- What the ‘Dean of Valuation’ Thinks Elon Musk’s SpaceX Is Really Worth [$1.3T]
The first article is very optimistic. The second is less so, approaching the situation more carefully.
For my readers who wish to invest, I strongly suggest you read them all, and consider them all. Investment here might not be as great as you think.
For SpaceX and the future of space exploration however the situation is excellent, whether or not buyers are going to make money on its IPO. The company is certain to bring in more than $75 billion, maybe as much as $86 billion, giving it the capital to do everything it wants in the next few years. It will build Starship. It will send it to both the Moon and Mars. It will have the resources to fuel Elon Musk’s fundamental dream, building a major human civilization throughout the solar system.
In this alone the IPO will be historic, as it lays the groundwork for the human colonization of space. History begins now, and it does so under the aegis of capitalism and freedom.
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The fact that EVERY article and person on social media, news, investing forums is telling me to stay away is the exact reason I am considering pushing a large portion of my chips.
These are the same people who irrationally argue that GME is a goldmine, if it weren’t for the powers that be holding it down illegally.
Appreciate your perspective Bob!
Interested in what others are thinking…
Imagine being able to see the future back in, oh, 2006, Bob. We wouldn’t have believed it.
Nate P wrote, “Imagine being able to see the future back in, oh, 2006, Bob. We wouldn’t have believed it.”
Ah, but you see, I was actually predicting this scenario — that private enterprise would get the job done — as far back as 1998, in my first book, Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8. To quote from my conclusion:
You see, I am not surprised or startled by any of this. I expected it.
At the same time, that doesn’t mean I am not excited by it all. Hell yes. I couldn’t be more pumped. As I think we all are.
Markets will be markets they drive buyers and sellers to points of insanity. Mom always said buy low, sell high. Institutional market players will be buying and selling based on their robotic traders with minimum upward movements, micromovements, large stock swings, expect rapid sawtooth rise, with institutional players pushing little guy moves directionally up. Short term rapid ascending pricing, by second or third week, “market correction” – big players getting bored looking at mounting expenditures by SpaceX, and making markets by dumping, and then buying on the bottom price. Smart investors know SpaceX will be the big player in long term. Just know when to hold them, and know when to fold them, and know what stock market all is about, the game.
I’ve lost a lot of respect for the financial world’s various “takes”.
Too often, it overreacts to various events and developments. For instance, when Donald Trump announced his intention to levy tariffs, the financial world seemed to feel as if the proverbial sky was falling. There was no appreciation for the very obvious fact that Trump was BEGINNING the process of trade negotiations with the various nations, and NOT presenting a finalized result.
I’m curious to see how the SpaceX IPO will actually play out.