SpaceX’s IPO: A quick look at the financial world’s present take
As SpaceX and the Wall Street gear up for the June 12, 2026 initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX stock, there have been a number of articles published in the past week expressing skepticism about it, mostly aimed at trying to predict what will happen in order to advise potential buyers.
Much of this is guesswork, but the people speaking are people who do this for a living, so it might be worthwhile to take a look at what what they have to say. Below are a few examples.
First, the New Yorker published a detailed article questioning the overall $1.75 trillion valuation of SpaceX listed in its IPO. It doubts the reality of the company’s AI division, its plan to launch a constellation of data satellites, and notes that Starlink and the launch divisions don’t make up the difference. Overall, its analysis concludes the valuation is over-rated, and should be approached with caution.
Business Insider also posted an article expressing reservations about the IPO’s unusual requirement that 30% of all shares be reserved for the retail market, made up of small individual buyers.
Here’s how it’s instead been interpreted by the retail-investor commentariat: They’re capitalizing on trader excitement and relying on it to supplement demand from institutions. The heavy allocation is essentially setting up retail to hold the bag after longer-term shareholders take profits.
I myself have had this analysis confirmed by one source, that the major big stock buyers are themselves planning to hold back their purchases for at least the first few months, believing the stock price will be pumped up initially by this flood of small enthusiastic buyers. They will wait for it to drop — as they expect — and then buy, taking their profits then.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal posted two articles with contradictory conclusions:
- Morgan Stanley Sees SpaceX’s Revenue Reaching $3.4 Trillion in 2040
- What the ‘Dean of Valuation’ Thinks Elon Musk’s SpaceX Is Really Worth [$1.3T]
The first article is very optimistic. The second is less so, approaching the situation more carefully.
For my readers who wish to invest, I strongly suggest you read them all, and consider them all. Investment here might not be as great as you think.
For SpaceX and the future of space exploration however the situation is excellent, whether or not buyers are going to make money on its IPO. The company is certain to bring in more than $75 billion, maybe as much as $86 billion, giving it the capital to do everything it wants in the next few years. It will build Starship. It will send it to both the Moon and Mars. It will have the resources to fuel Elon Musk’s fundamental dream, building a major human civilization throughout the solar system.
In this alone the IPO will be historic, as it lays the groundwork for the human colonization of space. History begins now, and it does so under the aegis of capitalism and freedom.
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The fact that EVERY article and person on social media, news, investing forums is telling me to stay away is the exact reason I am considering pushing a large portion of my chips.
These are the same people who irrationally argue that GME is a goldmine, if it weren’t for the powers that be holding it down illegally.
Appreciate your perspective Bob!
Interested in what others are thinking…
I just wish he was a better speaker
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/dmitri-bolt/2026/06/12/elon-musk-gives-a-speech-as-spacex-is-set-to-go-public-n2677659
I might have written myself a script.
Though not being slick is a good thing at times.
Imagine being able to see the future back in, oh, 2006, Bob. We wouldn’t have believed it.
Nate P wrote, “Imagine being able to see the future back in, oh, 2006, Bob. We wouldn’t have believed it.”
Ah, but you see, I was actually predicting this scenario — that private enterprise would get the job done — as far back as 1998, in my first book, Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8. To quote from my conclusion:
You see, I am not surprised or startled by any of this. I expected it.
At the same time, that doesn’t mean I am not excited by it all. Hell yes. I couldn’t be more pumped. As I think we all are.
Ah, I have one of your other books but not that one. What I’m getting at, though, is not that it would eventually happen, but that it would happen within twenty years. I get the feeling I’m rather younger than most commenters here are, but I’m old enough to remember thinking that the attitude of the space industry then–that space was mainly for the state and for communications satellites, for science and for exploration, would always be the case, and we’d never really break that mindset until I was too old for it to matter.
Nate P: Freedom works so well that all it took was a handful of individuals (Musk, Beck, Bezos) to use it to drive circles around government and the limitations it imposed. I have never had any doubt that once someone made it happen, it would happen quickly.
Then again, speed is how you define it. It has taken almost two decades for the U.S. to more or less complete the transition from a Soviet-style top-down “space program” run by NASA to a chaotic space industry run by no one. And even now, that transition is not certain. All it will take to shut it down is more fake rigged Democrat elections like the one this week in California. Remember, that is the party of Nazis, Islamists, communists, and racists. They are increasingly evil and power hungry, and would have no qualms about using that power to kill their enemies, if they ever get the chance. Some of their candidates this spring have actually said so.
Markets will be markets they drive buyers and sellers to points of insanity. Mom always said buy low, sell high. Institutional market players will be buying and selling based on their robotic traders with minimum upward movements, micromovements, large stock swings, expect rapid sawtooth rise, with institutional players pushing little guy moves directionally up. Short term rapid ascending pricing, by second or third week, “market correction” – big players getting bored looking at mounting expenditures by SpaceX, and making markets by dumping, and then buying on the bottom price. Smart investors know SpaceX will be the big player in long term. Just know when to hold them, and know when to fold them, and know what stock market all is about, the game.
I’ve lost a lot of respect for the financial world’s various “takes”.
Too often, it overreacts to various events and developments. For instance, when Donald Trump announced his intention to levy tariffs, the financial world seemed to feel as if the proverbial sky was falling. There was no appreciation for the very obvious fact that Trump was BEGINNING the process of trade negotiations with the various nations, and NOT presenting a finalized result.
I’m curious to see how the SpaceX IPO will actually play out.
The world of financial “analysts” might as well, for the most part be called the world of financial “anal-ists” as most of them seem to pull their predictions out of their arses. They are, almost completely, a cadre of the myopic and unimaginative. They all occupy the same perceptual bubble and are, thus, pretty much interchangeable.
Dick Eagleson: Your language in this comment is trending a bit in on the edge of obscenity. This is a warning.
Duly noted.
John Batchelor and Michael Vlahos have labeled the IPO a “grift.” John has taken a bit of a left turn lately. I still appreciate the show, and am grateful for him introducing me to many guests and offers. I have to be more discerning in which segments I choose these days.
https://overcast.fm/+AA85Ve3yK0c
Fidelity acquired many many shares for it’s customer to buy. They can buy them at the guaranteed IPO price which is presently estimated at $135 but the final figure will be revealed Thursday. After this figure is announced the Fidelity customers will get an email and a link which will allow them to confirm or cancel the buy.
Any Fidelity account holder who places a buy order today will get their shares, Friday morning, 9:30am at the figure revealed Thursday – no market fluctuation effects.
I can readily see the value fluctuating after the market opens. If the Fidelity customers want to sell during a quick upswing they could. If they want to hold they can.
It would be nice if that were true, but the total of shares on offer is finite and if demand exceeds supply, there will be people with no seat once the music stops.
I will be one of them. I opened a Fidelity trading account specifically to try getting in on the SpaceX IPO. Supposedly, one could participate in the SpaceX IPO with as little as $2,000 in a brokerage account – rather than the usual minimum of $100,000. Not so, it turns out.
But even had I been allowed to explicitly express interest, it is unlikely I would have gotten any shares. Credit to Elon for allocating 30% of the IPO shares for the retail market. But “retail” includes players who are big, medium and small fry as individuals. The brokerages take what they are allocated and make no bones about the fact they will take care of their long-term, large-trading retail clients before any of we newbie small fry. One cannot even make a decent case that this policy is unfair – because it isn’t.
So I will watch the SpaceX IPO from the nose-bleed bleacher seats and look for opportunities to get in later when everyone is on a much more level playing field. Someone like myself, with the goal of buying and holding so as to have a little something to pass along to the offspring, can sometimes take advantage of transient dips driven by people with a more pump-and-dump orientation – of whom there seems to be no shortage.
Yes I oversimplified the description of Fidelity’s deal for it’s customers. People can lodge buy requests on the 555 million shares Fidelity has, right now. But if they’ve already been claimed by other customers, the new request fails.
There is definitely a lot of thinking that the inside investors will use the IPO to take profit off the excitement. Many big name IPOs have lost value after trading begins, only to become the good investments they are today. Nobody knows, the stock will be worth whatever it trades at.
I’ll be hard pressed not to take anything offered, it’s a gamble for sure.
And SpaceX xAI and Starlink are soooo cool !!! look! Elon’s making sure the little guy can get in!
This is a “story stock” . That is a stock more built on excitement around a company than on any financial metrics. . “Story Stocks” are bought because they are cool. Of course, some such companies do have a substantive business case, as Spacex and Tesla do. However, more than any other kind of stock, they rise and fall based on public perception. They are volatile and tend to be overvalued, all other things being equal. The good thing is one can enjoy the ride with a share or two. This is fun and won’t cause major damage if the stock fails to perform. But my retirement accounts are remaining in index mutual funds with negligible fees. These are investments that are designed to avoid risk from selecting the wrong stocks. Most people trying to outperform the market fail, especially those who do it part time.
Also, it is worth mentioning that Spacex could be intact, succeed in its stated mission, and the stock being sold now could still end up being worthless(or at least underperform the market). That would happen in a bankruptcy…and yes, that can happen to profitable companies. Profit does not equal cash in the bank in the short term. Even when a company survives a bankruptcy, the original stockholders usually loose their investment. It could also happen if the shares are diluted by new direct investments in the company or new stock issues. This reduces your share in the profits. A new entrant could essentially take over any profitable part of any new industry Spacex creates. This has happened in the past as new industries form and can happen again.
That’s all true, in principle, as far as it goes. But one must also look at history and at probabilities. SpaceX’s future prospects rely almost entirely on: (1)its dominance of the space launch business, and (2) on its ability to leverage that dominance into dominance of other business sectors that are much larger in potential and actual payoff. It has leveraged that dominance into comparable dominance of the space-based broadband Internet business. It is in the early stages of establishing comparable dominance in the orbital-direct-to-cell service business and the still earlier stages of dominance in the space-based AI data center business. All of these current and future dominances rest on a foundation of continued dominance of space launch.
And the last decade has not shown much evidence that that launch dominance is going to be materially challenged anytime soon, if ever. So, to the extent SpaceX is a “story stock” one can only recall the advice of 19th-century “click-bait artist” Ned Buntline who said, “When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.”
Dick Eagleson: A minor correction: While Ned Buntline’s dime western novels in the post-Civil War era certainly helped establish the legend of the wild west, he did not say “When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.” That quote comes from one of John Ford’s best films, The Man who shot Liberty Valance, which also included one of John Wayne’s most tragic performances.
Right you are. It’s been quite awhile since I’ve seen ‘Liberty Valance’ and my recollection of that line’s provenance obviously strayed.
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacexs-ipo-a-quick-look-at-the-financial-worlds-present-take/?replytocom=1632814#respond
DE:
SpaceX could be awesome for the next 10 or 20 years. But if/when Musk is no longer running it, there’ sno telling what may happen to it.
Boeing was once Great.
One of the most important SpaceX did was learn to mass produce phase array antennae for Starlink.
With all the generation capacity coming up for the data centers – How is the production of rectennae coming along. They Must want to share power between satellites. And sharing power across planetary distances is child’s play if someone can mass produce microwave rectennae. I have faith in their engineers.
I have not tried to book an IPO but through my brokerage account as yet but probably will before close of business Wednesday. I’ve got a few questions into my account adviser wrt the terms. But as I understand it we can put in a buy “request” for shares at the uninflated offering price announced on Thursday and that request will go into a kind of raffle where you may get none, some. or all that you request but there is no guarantee.
My view wrt valuation is that as a long term play it is solid, but you have to expect there will be a lot of volatility. Here are factors that make me optimistic though:
1. SpaceX has a proven record with Falcon 9 . That flies 3 -4 times a week with 20ish tons to orbit with 3 launch pads. SpaceX has the same intentions for Starship launching 5X that mass to orbit from 5 launch pads, So their ability to scale is legitimate and will happen. It just going to take 3-5 years to get there just like it did with Falcon 9.
2. This means Starlink and Starlink Mobile are going to scale and wayyyy faster than anyone else and mobile is kind of underplayed imho. Especially now the Blue Origin’s intentions have been flummoxed and Apple will almost assuredly become a far more proactive advocate..
3. Add to this the rising play in US defense via Starshield which I expect will scale immensely too. 2 reasons: They are now talking about realtime Starshield enabled Aircraft, missile, and drone detection and tracking. Given the events of these last 3 months you gotta believe the Department of War will want it bigly. The second is that we are now deploying practicable 100KW laser defense weapons to shield against drones. Well that conveniently maps to thr satellite bus/power supply/radiator architecture of the envisioned AI DataCenter satellites, and after consulting Grok I learned that the performance of a laser in space shooting down through the atmosphere is equal to or better than a surface based weapon above 1-3Km in altitude.
4. Data centers in space are going to be a real thing. It all comes down to the cost to orbit and Starship/Superheavy are going to commoditize that. And if SpaceX gets that Exxon parcel in Louisiana expect another 5 launch pads in play by 2035 or so too.
5. Finally, they only made the most passing of mentions to it in the filing materials, but asteroid mining is an incredible opportunity too I think. Asteroid Psyche has an estimated resource value of 10 QUINTILLION dollars and is just floating around out there. And SpaceX is going to be positioned to make a move to get some of that way before anyone else.
But this will all take time, so as I said it’s a loony term play.
Y’all are leaving out discussion of Terrafab and the $2 billion/MONTH that SpaceX already rakes in for data center rentals. That’s where the money is.
I guess it depends on what the purpose of your investment is.
If you’re investing in SpaceX because you believe in the company, think it’s going to be successful and want to be a part of that, what difference does it make whether the stock starts high and then dips? Over the long term, if the company is successful, it will increase massively.
If you’re “investing” to make short term profits, you’re not really investing in the company, you’re playing poker. Trying to read the other player’s faces, call their bluffs and hope for good cards. If that’s what you’re into, more power to you. Skilled gamblers can get rich (and poor, and rich, and poor) that way.
Most people who play the game aren’t skilled gamblers and just end up broke and frustrated.
I think most of the small investors that SpaceX is trying to attract aren’t gamblers. They’re investors, and that’s what Elon (wisely in my opinion) is looking for.
I wouldn’t buy any stock prior to the mid-terms. If things do flip, I could see Congress going after Musk as a way of seeing just how important the Iran war is to Trump…who might just cave. That and/or more endless investigations.
I’ve ordered 10 shares though Revolut (I’m UK based and this seemed to be the easiest way for me to do so). For me its more about expressing support for the Musk/SpaceX vision, though will be nice receive dividends too.
The IPO is being underwritten by 23 different Banks, with Goldman Sachs as the lead. The initial price is set by gauging investor demand against available shares, which are allocated across the underwriters. This is a market-clearing thing, all shares need to be sold into the public by the end of the day. (Which isn’t a problem here but can be for other Companies.) Goldman Sachs is generally guaranteeing to Musk to sell all shares into the market, at the initial price, for which they receive a hefty fee when done, and depending on the deal, to support that initial price with active buy/sell programs during the day.
The object of the Syndicate is to initially sell every share into the public at the initial price. Very few of us have the financial heft to be granted an initial allocation from their brokerage and acquire the stock for the initial issuing price.
Essentially, at the speed of light, given the demand we know is present, all these shares will be out the door by 10am. Then the fun begins.
Concurrently, the Trading departments at all these banks are going to immediately begin trading for their own accounts. And insiders & prior investors will move toward converting their previous stakes into common stock and cashing out some portion.
I would put forth, anyone acquiring SpaceX stock on the issuing day, is going to pay the market-rate for that day.
If you want it, you just need to decide your maximum price, cu’z you’re probably not getting it at the issue-price. (don’t place any open orders, set your maximum price and hope for the best.)
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“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second-best time is now.”
The eagerly awaited BeauSpace buyout of SpaceX will take place on the 13th. Savvy investors are lining up for the limited number of BeauSpace shares to be placed on the market. Don’t let this fantastic investment opportunity pass you by!
The Fidelity plan to provide SPCX shares at the Final price stated tomorrow has a penalty to limit very short term flipping:
“Any customer who purchases shares in the SpaceX IPO will be subject to a 15-day flipping policy. Customers that sell shares acquired as part of the IPO within the first 15 days of the shares trading in the secondary market will be prohibited from participating in future new issue equity offerings for a defined period of time.”
COL:
Margin Call (2011)
“Fire Sale” Dumping Everything
https://youtu.be/6D7KVozqRvk
6:54
IPO price per share now locked in at $135
Dick Eagleson
June 8, 2026 at 11:47 pm
“I opened a Fidelity trading account specifically to try getting in on
the SpaceX IPO. Supposedly, one could participate in the SpaceX IPO
with as little as $2,000 in a brokerage account – rather than the
usual minimum of $100,000. Not so, it turns out.
But even had I been allowed to explicitly express interest, it is
unlikely I would have gotten any shares.
But “retail” includes players who are big, medium and small fry as
individuals. The brokerages take what they are allocated and make no
bones about the fact they will take care of their long-term,
large-trading retail clients before any of we newbie small fry.”
Unlikely? Demonstrably wrong.
While the brokerages might take care of long-term/large-traders before
the small fry I’m the smallest of Fidelity small fry who could participate, and
I got the 10 shares I asked for, and got them at the issuing price of $135.
What counted was when you submitted your buy. I submitted soon after
the Fidelity IPO was offered. First come first served.
Also I think there may have mattered how long you were a
Fidelity customer (as opposed to the size of the customer’s holdings). That may have been why
you were unable to participate. But I don’t know that for a fact.
wayne
June 10, 2026 at 10:26 am
“Very few of us have the financial heft to be granted an initial
allocation from their brokerage and acquire the stock for the initial
issuing price.
If you want it, you just need to decide your maximum price, cu’z
you’re probably not getting it at the issue-price. (don’t place any
open orders, set your maximum price and hope for the best.)”
You are wrong.
I have no financial heft – though I qualified to participate in the
Fidelity allocation – and I was granted the 10 shares I asked for, at the
initial issuing price.
It didn’t require “financial heft”…all that was required was to put
in your buy soon enough after Fidelity made their 555,555,555
shares available to their customers. First come first served.
In general – Fidelity’s attempt to limit flipping:
Fidelity has penalties to prevent people from buying at the issue
price and flipping right away to try and take a profit from market
churn.
Shares are subject to a 15 day holding period. First time you violate
that you will be prevented from participating in Fidelity’s IPO
process for 180 days.
Second time you violate that you are banned from the process for 365
days.
Third time you violate that you are banned from participating in
the Fidelity IPO process forever.
After the 15 day waiting period you are free to sell your shares
without penalty.