COVID-19 hospitalizations dropping across the board
Click for full resolution image.
The graph to the right, produced weekly by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and presently up-to-date through June 13th, bluntly shows why the panic over COVID-19 has been absurd and unjustified. (Hat tip Doug Ross @ Journal for noting it first.)
It shows the trends in Wuhan flu hospitalizations week to week, separated by age group. The only age groups seriously impacted by the disease have been those over 50. The cohorts under seventeen do not even register on the graph. Moreover, these are numbers per 100,000. Even at its worse, the disease only put about 30 people (over 65) out of every 100,000 into the hospital. Though maybe a bit higher it is hardly different than what we see normally during any normal flu season. It is also, like what we see during flu season, hardly something to panic over.
The graph also shows that the disease’s impact is clearly fading, across the board, even as the number of identified cases is rising. Even in the 18-49 cohort, which is right now experiencing the greatest rise in new cases, the hospitalizations are dropping, to about 2 or 3 people out of every 100,000.
This is not something to fear. It certainly does not justify the nullification of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Nor does it justify the requirement that everyone go about their lives wearing a mask, which not only does nothing to stop the disease but probably increases everyone’s chances of getting sick.
Doug Ross in his post on this graph I think summarizes the situation best:
You gots it, Sparky. The key metrics indicate that overall, the U.S. is crushing the China scourge. Of course, the media — whose singular goal is the destruction of the Constitution — wants to shriek about the growth of “positive test results”, not hospitalizations or mortality. But that’s what the media do. They aren’t about objective facts, or news, they’re about promoting fascism. Ain’t that right, Acosta?
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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Click for full resolution image.
The graph to the right, produced weekly by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and presently up-to-date through June 13th, bluntly shows why the panic over COVID-19 has been absurd and unjustified. (Hat tip Doug Ross @ Journal for noting it first.)
It shows the trends in Wuhan flu hospitalizations week to week, separated by age group. The only age groups seriously impacted by the disease have been those over 50. The cohorts under seventeen do not even register on the graph. Moreover, these are numbers per 100,000. Even at its worse, the disease only put about 30 people (over 65) out of every 100,000 into the hospital. Though maybe a bit higher it is hardly different than what we see normally during any normal flu season. It is also, like what we see during flu season, hardly something to panic over.
The graph also shows that the disease’s impact is clearly fading, across the board, even as the number of identified cases is rising. Even in the 18-49 cohort, which is right now experiencing the greatest rise in new cases, the hospitalizations are dropping, to about 2 or 3 people out of every 100,000.
This is not something to fear. It certainly does not justify the nullification of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Nor does it justify the requirement that everyone go about their lives wearing a mask, which not only does nothing to stop the disease but probably increases everyone’s chances of getting sick.
Doug Ross in his post on this graph I think summarizes the situation best:
You gots it, Sparky. The key metrics indicate that overall, the U.S. is crushing the China scourge. Of course, the media — whose singular goal is the destruction of the Constitution — wants to shriek about the growth of “positive test results”, not hospitalizations or mortality. But that’s what the media do. They aren’t about objective facts, or news, they’re about promoting fascism. Ain’t that right, Acosta?
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
“Week ending June 13” (as with your graph) is the most recent set released by CDC’s Weekly Surveillance Summary, but that means its final data points only reflect hospitalizations which happened between two to three weeks ago. But the uptick in confirmed cases just started about three weeks ago, didn’t it?
I don’t see how that data is recent enough to support the hypothesis that “the impact [as measured by hospitalizations] is clearly fading, across the board, even as the number of identified cases is rising”. It does support your other points on age distribution and overall rate of impact, and there would have been a lot less panic everywhere if all figures were primarily given as rates per 100,000 instead of raw totals. A lot happens in a country of one-third of a billion people, and most people don’t put news in proper context. Would alarmists who claim any effort is worthwhile if it saves just one life say the same about 0.0003 per 100,000?
I don’t recall the source, but I saw some more recent charts showing COVID-19 related hospitalizations still dropping in the northeast, but increasing in all other regions, resulting in a slight increase nationwide. I’ll see if I can find it again.
What I expect to happen in the US in the coming month.
I expect the number of cases to continue to rise, the re-imposition of broad lock-down measures shouldn’t be done because the economic damage isn’t justified, perhaps the US, early in the pandemic could have eliminated the virus with strict measures, but, we can say in hindsight that’s unlikely even with a united US team of 325 million, in many population centers the people just don’t have the ability to isolate to the extent required, so without a vaccine the virus will continue to shift through the US population, other cities, especially those with poor densely populated communities will see infection rates on the order of that seen in NY.
I think we won’t see such high case death rates as seen in the first wave, treatments of those hospitalized has improved with experience and, more importantly, surely the measures put in place to avoid the infection of the most vulnerable have improved. Mr. Zimmerman suggested that this was where the focus needed to be and, given the failure to contain the spread he’s certainly correct on this point.
So, I won’t be surprised if the number of daily cases increases into the high tens of thousands given the wider spread of areas of established community transmission. I expect the number of deaths to increase, but three things will lower the case death rate: Reduced exposure of the most vulnerable, continued increase in testing – maybe we’ll see 25% of infections detected vs only 10 – 15% in the first wave, and the better treatment options. So while we saw peak deaths at less than 8% of peak cases in the first wave, this time around it’ll be more like (guestimating) 3%, which could give a similar number of daily deaths as we saw at the mid April peak.
And, Cotour, given the above I have to revise my prediction for the number of US deaths over the next 3 years down to less than a million (based on the assumption that there will be no effective vaccine – which I think very unlikely).
Where I live, cases are going up and while hospitalizations were holding steady, they are now increasing too, 19 in the past week. That puts us below the 10ish per 100k nationwide but shows cities like mine will see increases in hospitalizations, not a decrease as claimed in the post above.
What the CDC graph shows are outliers, all the people in the old folks homes who were infected. The numbers for other age groups have stayed pretty stable in terms of how many are hospitalized.
It stands to reason that numbers would drop during the lockdown and as sensible people took steps to mitigate their own exposure and exposure to others. What isn’t reasonable are people claiming that nothing helped and that no steps should be taken.
Graphs are nice but it is important to look behind the lines to what is making them.
And the numbers continue to drop.
CDC has released their COVID-19 related hospitalization figures for the week ending 20 June, and they are again down from the previous week in every age category.
Also, daily reported deaths continue to be down week-on-week, with yesterday’s (Friday) being 619, down from 647, and today’s being 506, down from 621. (Per the COVID Tracking Project page Bob linked in an earlier post.)
Interesting.