New study suggests lockdowns did nothing to change epidemic growth
A new study produced by researchers at University College London, University of Pennsylvania and Harvard has found that the lockdowns imposed on populations actually accomplished little in slowing the growth of the Wuhan flu epidemic, and that social distancing appears to have been more than sufficient to do the job.
This information comes from the researchers’ twitter feed, and is about to be published. The key quote:
The mean daily case growth rate had _already_ been declining at this point. There was no additional decline in mean daily case growth after implementation of statewide restrictions on internal movement (“lockdowns”)
The researcher then try to make believe the lockdowns were still a good idea, denying their own results, but there it is for all to see. We have risked bankrupting our whole economy and thrown out our Constitution for no reason.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
A new study produced by researchers at University College London, University of Pennsylvania and Harvard has found that the lockdowns imposed on populations actually accomplished little in slowing the growth of the Wuhan flu epidemic, and that social distancing appears to have been more than sufficient to do the job.
This information comes from the researchers’ twitter feed, and is about to be published. The key quote:
The mean daily case growth rate had _already_ been declining at this point. There was no additional decline in mean daily case growth after implementation of statewide restrictions on internal movement (“lockdowns”)
The researcher then try to make believe the lockdowns were still a good idea, denying their own results, but there it is for all to see. We have risked bankrupting our whole economy and thrown out our Constitution for no reason.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
17 million Americans out of work, we need to put on the mask, keep our distance, and live life like normal to save what we can. Fight to get back what is ours before they take our ability to fight back.
In Utah, the governor comes on the media restricting more and more of the state. He has placed guards at state borders pinging cell phones warning visitors, and tracking movements.
Big Brother is watching.
In the spirit of finding that previous statements/assumptions didn’t age well, I told smokers (probably here on BtB as well) that they might be at elevated risk during C19. Perhaps I was wrong. (I’ve seen some of the studies before, but Rod sums them up nicely.)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/if-anything-is-essential-right-now-its-cigarettes
At some point in the near future elements of the economy are going to have to be opened up and life will begin to reengage. And its not going to be because Dr. Fauci or any other doctor authorizes it, its going to be because reasonable leadership with reasonable caution will be doing it. Weighing the risk V rewards.
And if that is not acceptable and the fear is all you can see then I suggest that you find the highest bridge in your area and make your plans to solve your fear and problems there.
These doctors are consultants they are not leadership, and they are going to err on the side of extreme caution (and maybe their own political agendas or alliances? You know I really trust non of them or very few of them).
This is what Ron Paul has to say: https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/09/texas-ron-paul-donald-trump-doctor-anthony-fauci-fire-dismiss-coronavirus-covid-19/
In a short while peoples fear will begin to be tempered and balanced by reality and the understanding of what ever risk that may exist still. Find out what things or systems or protocols or best practices are needed to mitigate the risk and move ahead.
Enough will soon be enough, most people will become tired of their fear, at some point some one has to take care of business.
Cotour,
Let’s entertain our paranoid leanings here, will we? Assume that this is someone’s plan: have a first wave that is what it is right now and people will eventually think that the harsh measures aren’t appropriate, then have a second more terrible wave and people won’t comply with the necessary measures. How about that?
That would just be too overt, non subtle and revealing if something like that were to play out and would without doubt result in a hot confrontation. There would be no plausible deniability involved, just in your face confrontation and attack. That may well come from the Chinese Communists in time, but not now.
No, this is what it is, a powerful trans species mutant virus has been transported rapidly around the world due to technology and it is dangerous, and for about 5 or so percent of those who contract it it may kill you. Humanity has been here before and will without doubt be here again. Especially if the Chinese Communists have anything to say about it.
And this event IMO (For the moment anyway) is more than likely a function of a lab that is studying the virus, among many other viruses, and probably manipulating the virus and probably due to poor security practices allowed it to escape, rather than it coming directly from a “wet” market. That’s what I get out of all of the technical papers, articles and reporting that I have seen.
Whether it is a part of a malevolent controlled release / experiment / strategy remains to be seen depending on what evidence can be developed. But one thing has without doubt been established, the Chinese Communist leadership, I think there are only 90K of them, who rule over 1.5 billion people are ruthless and are the purest example of a leadership that practices strategy at the peril of all who encounter them. The essence of evil, its a natural expression of the Communism beast.
Bernie would tell all that “They just are not doing it right”. Morality is not even a consideration, not even in its mildest form. Its all just strategy and attaining their goal and they are moving towards that goal.
And God help us all if a Democrat, especially a Joe Biden were to become empowered, he would without doubt deliver us and the world to their door step.
I think our best play, since the Chinese have been taken into World Trade Organization and they want to be accepted by the civilized rest of the world, is to sue them and legally obligate them in a court of international law to be responsible for their bad acts, established lying and surrendering of their international fiduciary responsibilities.
Make them pay. You want to play the game? Then lets play the game.
Know the game, play the game, win the game.
(And the Chinese will scheme to leverage and threaten and own the court, our leverage just has to be bigger and badder)
Sweden has implemented virtually NO economic or social shutdown (EVEN SCHOOL GRADES K-8 REMAIN OPEN), and currently have the SAME COVID-19 DEATH RATE PER CAPITA AS THE U.S., except their GDP for 2020 and 2021 will be healthy. And they did not shut down their economy and much needed job income and national productivity (eg food, energy, clothing, housing, hospitalization and doctor visits.) destroying small businesses and the personal finances of 10’s of million of people. We are ruining ourselves for no reason…It is amazing to see what has happened in only a month. I don’t think most people understand the extent of the economic damage, especially as this drags on and into the next flu season…IMO. Businesses are like people, in that if they are sick they can still return to good health, but if they die (full bankruptcy) they do not arise from the dead…they must be reborn and nurtured with prodigious work, money, and time which many will not be able to duplicate.
Bottom line..We can get most of the health benefits of a full economic/social forced lock-down without actually enforcing a full lock-down and its economic devastation.
A very light “lock-down” such as perhaps mandating masks in public (forget the 6 foot “social distancing” paranoia ,its ineffective –particles from a sneeze/cough will hang in the air for a long time and you will walk into it and breath it in. Masks for prevention of transmission and protection are a much better solution) for a very limited time (maybe 2 months), and perhaps making physical school attendance optional for a very limited time, etc.
The current forced lock-down approach in the U.S. is about the worst possible with devastating financial results , and the Korean (and Hong Kong) and even Swedish alternates (with a few possible alterations) are examples of much better options..IMO
Optimistically, the importance of simple mask usage among the GENERAL PUBLIC and the unnecessary devastation of these extreme societal responses and the reopening of society in many counties and countries is FINALLY starting to be implemented and reported.
I can agree with:
We can get most of the health benefits of a full economic/social forced lock-down without actually enforcing a full lock-down and its economic devastation.
But comparing Sweden to the US is apples and oranges, too many differences to be able to attribute any similarities or differences in outcomes to any particular factor.
Comparing Sweden and Norway makes far more sense – and unfortunately in terms of rate of increase in numbers infected and deaths Sweden doesn’t do well: On the 20th March Norway had 1959 cases, Sweden 1639 cases, latest figure is Norway 6,219, Sweden 9141, over that time Norway infections increased 217%, Sweden 457%.
In terms of deaths attributed to Covid-19 Sweden’s numbers look even worse: 793 vs 108.
Your comment is irrelevant, with all due respect, IMO. I did not wish to compare Sweden to Norway nor to Korea. Nor did i say it was the best response..what I said was “…EVEN Swedish alternates (WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ALTERATIONS) are examples of much better options [wrt the U.S.]…” . Korea is also apples to oranges rwt the U.S., but does that prevent us from comparing and noticing Korea has had a much better response? Rather than commenting on what I did not intend, do you significantly disagree with anything I did say?
Certainly what happens in Sweden in the coming month will be instructive. I hope they will embrace the possibly mandatory use of public masks for a short time, and otherwise keep their economy as healthy and open as it still is!
If you didn’t think “and currently have the SAME COVID-19 DEATH RATE PER CAPITA AS THE U.S.” was significant you shouldn’t have emphasized it by capitalizing it.
While I believe that most of what you say is correct, turning that path into a reality is not going to be easy, East Asians have more homogenous and disciplined societies than us in the West, Sweden isn’t doing as well at reducing the prevalence of the disease as well as Norway, indeed, the number of new cases is in decline in Norway, but still on the increase in Sweden, I expect numbers to decline in other Western countries, unfortunately there are no examples of Western countries that have forced a decline without a lock-down (that I know of) so while you and I might believe that a no lock-down scenario would work as well as – or nearly as well as government force in the West, we’re really just basing that on faith.
Do you significantly disagree with anything I did say? If so please offer something more substantive than a blog article and some tweets.
I don’t think comparing other countries actions to ours is relevant in any case.
I would want to see a comparison based on actions taken and in places of like population density.
For instance
-Sweden has a density of 23 / sq km.
– South Korea is higher at 517 / sq km
– The City of New York is 10, 431 / sq km (chose The City because comparing to the whole US is pointless).
I think that actions taken, from basic Social Distancing, to total lock down, should vary based on this factor, as well as the percentage of that population at higher risk.
Italy, as a population is older. Oldest in the EU. 518 per sq km ( similar to South Korea). Between the physical closeness, more multi-generational homes and a higher risk population, they should have locked down sooner.
South Korea had recently dealt with a SARS outbreak, and so they had a ready play book. Italy.. not so much.
This is just scratching the surface, but these kinds of comparisons are more apples to apples.
Some US states were aggressive with social distancing and shutting down common areas of transmission (stores, restaurants, etc). I live in a larger state (in the top 10) and yet we have a smaller outbreak, and very few deaths when compared with NY, NJ, PA (where 50% of cases and deaths are).
My point here is you cannot even do an apples to apples within the US. And a single solution pushed from DC would not work everywhere.
So to some extent, I agree, total lock downs across the US is not effective. My state is not under a total lockdown here. But not going about our way freely either.
It makes perfect sense tho that someplace like NYC to be completely locked down.
Ian C.
” I told smokers that they might be at elevated risk during C19. Perhaps I was wrong.”
You were not wrong, smokers in Wuhan had a much higher risk of death than others. Same for Italy.
Healthy people who die young with wu-flu and no other underlying cause… Upon further examination has shown to had lung infections/damage due to vaping (or smoking) and asthma. Anything that decreases lung capacity. (like environmental conditions, chemical exposures, sleep apnea)
A coworker says his cousin in Southern California, presumed healthy 30-year-old nurse, is on a ventilator.
His aunt is very upset because she was told her son gave up smoking only to find out he was a heavy vapor user. Having used the products that’s causing unusual death in the young that was all over the media last summer.
That’s when Congress was passing laws, banding products, shutting down Vape shops. (Makes you wonder of the timing, if they knew something was coming, taking drastic measures for so few deaths. A dry run preparing us?)
Meanwhile, Utah continues restrict access to public areas, even wide open desert. The Governor insist that people will “do what is right” which means “doing what he says” because he has good intentions. (Spring has suddenly happened and the people are out walking running and cycling everywhere!)
“”Violators and visitors will be added to a digital database.””
https://www.thespectrum.com/story/news/2020/04/08/coming-utah-governor-orders-travel-declaration-when-entering-coronavirus/2973514001/
No one has been charged with a crime because there are no laws being broken. Legislature is being convened for a special session “from home” to correct that, even though it violates the Constitution.
Salt Lake City mayor is asking for neighbors to call the hotline “turning in others” who violate her restrictions.
1800 testing positive out of 3.2 million people in state. 13 old/sick people dead. Why is Utah extending the lockdown to May 1?
I think in the US we should be starting to lower the restrictions and lock downs.
Go by county population density. Lower to higher.
Break it up evenly until Ny city is finally fully let go in 45 to 60 days.
This lets the majority of the nation loose much earlier and most of fly over farm county almost right away.
This could also be a way to watch the virus as places get more social. If death rates, not infection rates, spike up then slow things down again. We are ALL going to be infected eventually the lock down is just something to slow down the hospitalization rate.
Credit to Mark Levin (Friday 11th show):
Federally mandated CAFE standards [the orders specifying miles-per-gallon for your automobile] intentionally kill roughly 25K people per year, by design.
The Real COVID-19 Numbers!
Episode #6: Good Morning Mug-Club w/ Steven Crowder
4-10-2020
https://youtu.be/Ei_4zWzQcWY
1:17:51
Max–
Good stuff.
Here in Michigan, our Governor extended our ‘stay at home’ Order, until the end of April.
And for some reasoning I can’t fathom, the sale of paint has been suspended, for the duration. (Seriously, you cannot buy paint, in Michigan.)
Andrew W:
Yes I do disagree:
To think that the effectiveness of masks in preventing spread and preventing infection is “an act of faith”, is un-reasoned.
To think the US public is disciplined enough to effect and withstand lock-downs , but is NOT disciplined enough to use a mask effectively is just inane.
And to effectively ignore (as most people who defend lock-downs do) the devastating economic social and personal consequences entirely in your comparisons, is fatally flawed.
It WAS significant that the Swedish had the same death per capita as the US without ANY special response, and suffering NO devastating economic consequences, because it was so surprising. But i did NOT say it was the best response, or better than Norway or Korea..indeed, what I said was “…EVEN Swedish alternates [ie no lock-downs] (WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ALTERATIONS [ie, emphasis on possibly mandated mask usage]) are examples of much better options [wrt the U.S.]…” . Korea is also apples to oranges rwt the U.S., but does that prevent us from comparing and noticing (and learning) Korea has had a much better response? …No
Certainly what happens in Sweden in the coming month will be instructive. I hope they will embrace the possibly mandatory use of public masks for a short time, and otherwise keep their economy as healthy and open as it still is!
Finally you last sentence was particularly (but not unexpectedly) churlish and inane, ie,…”If so please offer something more substantive than a blog article and some tweets.” What “blog article” did I reference? What “tweets”? OR are you saying my response is a “blog article” or a “tweet”? Therefore, it seems, ANY response i may make is by definition “unsubstantial” (even though you may agree and even though it means any reasoning of your own is then equally unsubstantial). If you can prove or argue anything I have said is incorrect or unwise , do so.
The only way a “Western” alternative to lock-downs and economic devastation will occur is if a case is made and defended….and that is the case being made in my responses, which you don’t think are “substantive” by the very fact that they are being offered in this forum….an inane argument on your part.
If you can prove or argue anything I have said is incorrect or unwise , do so.
If you think the concurrent economic/societal devastation is inconsequential in this discussion, then make that case as well. So far I have seen no such acknowledgement of this component in your analysis, which makes all the difference.
M D Mill.
To think that the effectiveness of masks in preventing spread and preventing infection is “an act of faith”, is un-reasoned.
Strawman, I didn’t say that or imply that, I’m sure they are far more effective than no masks, are they as effective as every family staying in their own “bubble”, physically separate from every other family? I doubt it. But is the economic cost of a lock-down compensation for the effectiveness of it reducing the prevalence of the to levels that can then be adequately contained with masks etc in a back to normal economy? Arguably.
And to effectively ignore (as most people who defend lock-downs do) the devastating economic social and personal consequences entirely in your comparisons, is fatally flawed.
No one is “ignoring” the economic cost of the lock-down, everyone is very much aware of it, I certainly am.
So just another strawman.
It WAS significant that the Swedish had the same death per capita as the US without ANY special response, and suffering NO devastating economic consequences, because it was so surprising.
No it wasn’t, the trends are what counts, the daily number of new cases in the US has been flat for a week, in Sweden the daily number of new cases continues to increase. Though frankly I don’t see Sweden as being the poster boy for the no lock-down argument, they appear to be taking social distancing measures very casually.
It’s all a bit of a catch-22, the societies that would do a good job at controlling the spread of the disease without government force are the very countries whose populations take to disease seriously enough to be in favor of such government actions. That’s the thing with democracies – governments usually do what is popular, and I’d be surprised if you can find a poll in a country that has gone with government force that doesn’t show the overwhelming majority of the population in favor of the use of that force to impose a lock-down
Certainly what happens in Sweden in the coming month will be instructive.
There we agree, and what they do will also illustrate my point above, if what they’re doing is effective the people will say the government doesn’t need to impose a lock-down, if what they’re doing isn’t effective at controlling the disease the people will say the government does need to impose a lock-down.
What “blog article” did I reference? What “tweets”?
I was suggesting you should offer something more substantive than Mr. Zimmerman has so far offered (blog articles and tweets), as in this post of his, I guess my reference was just to cryptic for you.
The balance of your comment is without any substance what-so-ever.
1) ‘ “To think that the effectiveness of masks in preventing spread and preventing infection is “an act of faith”, is un-reasoned.”
Strawman, I didn’t say that or imply that, ..’
Yes, IMO you did imply…you stated “…so while you and I might believe that a no lock-down scenario would work as well as – or NEARLY as well as government force in the West, we’re really just basing that on FAITH.” No, the effectiveness of masks(possibly mandated) on severely restricting the spread without lock-downs (which I had been arguing for above) is not based on FAITH (as you seem now to agree)…it is reason based..and indications from many east Asian Pacific countries and east Asian health care experts support it. It would be more an act of FAITH to believe widespread use of masks would NOT work to severely restrict virus transmission.
2) A_W: ‘Do you significantly disagree with anything I did say? If so please offer something more substantive than a blog article and some tweets.’
“I was suggesting you should offer something more substantive than Mr. Zimmerman has so far offered (blog articles and tweets), as in this post of his, I guess my reference was just to cryptic for you.”
Yes since i did NOT reference ANY of RZ’s blog comments, and made my own reasoned arguments, your statement was cryptic at best and a churlish jibe at worst.
3) ” ‘And to effectively ignore (as most people who defend lock-downs do) the devastating economic social and personal consequences entirely in your comparisons, is fatally flawed.’
No one is “ignoring” the economic cost of the lock-down, everyone is very much aware of it, I certainly am.
So just another strawman.” No, you DO ignore the economic and social devastations in your STATED comparisons and support for the lock-down approach in your comments on BTB. I have NEVER before seen you comment on that aspect of lock-downs in all of your comments on BTB (am I wrong?–examples?). I am not commenting on your “unstated” thoughts, only on what you have not considered on here in BTB. In fact you prove my point AGAIN in your faulty reasoning above by determining when “the [Swedish]government does need to impose a lock-down” without once considering the economic/social devastation of the lock-down ON this decision. To you it SEEMS not to be an important factor in ANY of your discussions/arguments.
4) The Swedes now have a Covid-19 death per capita that is only 20% greater than the U.S. (4-21-2020), with virtually NONE of the economic/social devastation…IMO that would be a wildly worthwhile trade-off, if it could be duplicated here, though not probably the best option. It is fair to say that this is possibly apples to oranges. But it is also fair to say this is unexpected, , and worthy of consideration when considering U.S. lock-downs and economic /social impact…especially as they are becoming “herd immunized” and there may never be a Covid-19 vaccine…No successful vaccine has ever been produced for ANY Covid virus (so i understand), as several experts have now discussed, but we will hope. The Swedish experiment and it’s end result, is certainly significant, one way or another.
5) “The balance of your comment is without any substance what-so-ever.”
The balance of my comment was:
“To think the US public is disciplined enough to effect and withstand lock-downs , but is NOT disciplined enough to use a mask effectively is just inane.”..which is obvious IMO, unless you wish to argue otherwise.
and
“If you can prove or argue anything I have said is incorrect or unwise , do so.
If you think the concurrent economic/societal devastation is inconsequential in this discussion, then make that case as well. So far I have seen no such acknowledgement of this component in your analysis, which makes all the difference.”
Since you did respond to “try” to make your case , apparently that challenge was substantial enough.
BTW..are you aware of the sequel to “The Mote in Gods Eye”?