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Tiangong-1 reentry window narrowed to 24 hours centered on April 1st

Tiangong-1 landing possibilities

The reentry window for Tiangong-1 has now been narrowed to 24 hours, centered on April 1st. It is still too soon, however, to determine where it will land. The map on the right shows the likeliest regions in yellow, the next likeliest in green, and areas with no chance of impact in blue.

The focus so far has been on where the surviving pieces of Tiangong-1 might land. The summary at the link notes that it also will provide an interesting fireworks display.

It may be possible to see Tiangong-1 reentering depending on your location, the time of day, and visibility during reentry which will not be known until a few days prior to the event…. Visibly incandescent objects from this reentry will likely last tens of seconds (up to a minute or more) in contrast with the vast majority of natural meteors which last mere seconds.

…Depending on the time of day and cloud visibility, the reentry may appear as multiple bright streaks moving across the sky in the same direction. Due to the relatively large size of the object, it is expected that there will be many pieces reentering together, some of which may survive reentry and land on the Earth’s surface.

The spacecraft does carry toxic hydrazine fuel, so if by some miracle a piece falls near you don’t touch it.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 
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"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

4 comments

  • Thomas Tolan

    One would think, with the reentry window being only 24 hours long, that a ground track showing the 16 1/2 orbits the Tiangong1 station will be on during those 24 hours. It is no longer possible that any location between 42.7 degrees north and south can be on the path of the station when it falls, and this would improve the probability of seeing the fireball as it re-enters.

  • Chaim Arnstein

    Is Israel in the yellow band where the space station will most likely fall?

  • Chaim Arnstein: It appears so, but so is most of the most populous areas of the northern hemisphere. It must be noted that 1. most of that northern yellow band is still ocean. 2. There is an equal chance Tiangong-1 will fall in the yellow southern band, which is almost all ocean. 3. The spacecraft has a very good chance of crashing in the middle green regions, though less so than the yellow areas. 4. (and most important), not much debris from this module will likely reach the ground.

  • Phill O

    Can you imagine the uproar if NASA was so delinquent in foresight, not to have re-entry control?

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