Category: Behind The Black

Watching Elon Musk’s update on Starship tonight

3:53 pm

Starship mounted by tower on Superheavy

Tonight at 8 pm (central) Elon Musk is going to give a presentation updating the world on the status of SpaceX’s Starship project, with the fully stacked Starship/Superheavy as his backdrop. The photo to the right is a screen capture showing that stacking.

I have embedded the live stream below. Or you can watch it on SpaceX’s website or on its youtube channel.

The biggest question is the regulatory situation for Boca Chica. Will Musk report progress in getting operations approved there by the federal government, or will he outline how the federal government is acting as a barrier to progress? Or will he sidestep the issue (for diplomatic reasons) and focus his talk entirely on technical issues?

We can only wait and see.

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Today’s blacklisted Americans: Private school makes enemies list of parents

3:31 pm

Lovett ememies list
Click for original.

Blacklists are back and the Democrats (and their supporters) have got ’em: Two officials at the Lovett School, an expensive private K-12 school in the Atlanta area, have assembled an enemies list of “insubordinate” parents.

The picture to the right is a screen capture of an email sent to one of these officials, Jennifer Boutte, director of community relations, showing the list of parent enemies (blurred out to protect the privacy of these individuals). In it one official, Cholle [sp?] Wabrok, thanked Boutte for apparently assembling the list, adding

It is long overdue. I am disgusted by some of these parents, need to prioritize our efforts as some have too much influence. Our watch list — to keep hard-copy only?

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Astra launch fails when upper stage starts tumbling after stage separation

2:02 pm

Capitalism in space: Astra’s first attempt to launch from Cape Canaveral and put commercial cubesats in orbit failed today when the upper stage started to tumble immediately after the first stage had separated.

Embedded below is video showing that tumbling. The full replay of the launch live stream can be viewed here.

The silver lining of this failure is that the first stage and all launch operations appeared to function perfectly, right up until after stage separation. Nonetheless, it is a failure, and the company will need to try again and succeed if it wants to survive in the aggressive new launch market.
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NASA/NSF express collision concerns for SpaceX’s Starlink constellation

10:00 am

Capitalism in space: In a February 8th letter to the FCC, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA expressed their concerns about the collision possibilities of SpaceX’s full 30,000 satellite Starlink constellation with other spacecraft.

The letter raised several issues about the proposed constellation, primarily because it would increase the number of tracked objects in low Earth orbit by more than a factor of five. “An increase of this magnitude into these confined altitude bands inherently brings additional risk of debris-generating collision events based on the number of objects alone,” the agency stated. “NASA anticipates current and planned science missions, as well as human space flight operations will see an increase in conjunctions.”

The letter did not oppose the constellation, but simply outlined issues that the agencies thought SpaceX needed to address before the constellation’s full deployment. It also noted that these concerns apply to other planned large satellite constellations.

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SpaceX stacks Starship on Superheavy on orbital launchpad

9:37 am

Starship mounted by tower on Superheavy

Capitalism in space: SpaceX for the first time used the giant arms on the launch tower at its Boca Chica orbital launchpad to stack Starship on top of Superheavy, with the fully stacked giant rocket to act as a backdrop to Elon Musk’s update on the project scheduled for airing tonight at 8 pm (Central).

You can see a time lapse of the several hour process here.

The use of a launch tower to stack a rocket is apparently a first, and provides solid evidence that SpaceX’s plan to catch Superheavy with that tower and put it on the ground has a chance of success.

SpaceX has not yet announced how Musk’s presentation will be aired, but when this information is available I will embed it on Behind the Black.

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Earthlike exoplanet in habitable zone detected orbiting nearest star

9:21 am

The uncertainty of science: Astronomers think they have detected an Earthlike exoplanet, in habitable zone, orbiting Proxima Centauri, the nearest star to our solar system.

Astronomer João Faria and his collaborators detected Proxima Centauri d by measuring tiny shifts in the spectrum of the star’s light as the planet’s gravity pulled it during orbit. The team used a state-of-the art spectrograph called ESPRESSO at the Very Large Telescope, a system of four 8.2-metre telescopes at the European Southern Observatory in Cerro Paranal, Chile. The results were published on 10 February in Astronomy & Astrophysics.

This ‘wobble’ technique looks for changes in the star’s motion along the line of sight from Earth, and ESPRESSO can detect variations of just 10 centimeters per second. The total effect of the planet’s orbit, which lasts only five days, is about 40 cm/s, says Faria. “I knew that ESPRESSO could do this, but it was still surprised to see it showing up,” says Faria, who is at the Institute of Astrophysics and Space Sciences in Porto, Portugal.

Though the scientists are very confident about their results, the detection is at present only a candidate planet, as its existence has not been confirmed by an second independent method. Also, the method of detection cannot pin down the exoplanet’s mass very precisely, though it suggests the exoplanet has rocky planet mass, not too different than Earth’s.

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China plans more than 50 launches in 2022

9:14 am

China today released what it calls a blue paper outlining its space plans for 2022, predicting it will launch more than fifty times while completing assembly of its Tiangong space station.

The Shenzhou-14 astronauts will be aboard Tianhe core module for the arrival of the 20-metric-ton-plus Wentian and Mengtian modules, both now expected to launch in the second half of the year, later than earlier tentative times of June and August respectively. The module launches will complete the T-shaped orbital outpost. Tianzhou-5 will launch ahead of Shenzhou-15, both scheduled for late in the year.

Work on the Long March 2F, Long March 5B and Long March 7 rockets for launching Shenzhou, space station module and cargo missions respectively continued during the recent Lunar New Year holiday, according to CASC [China’s space agency]. The module launches will be followed closely, partly due to the significance of the missions, but also because of the use of the Long March 5B, the two previous launches of which saw the large first stages make high-profile uncontrolled reentries which sparked acrimony.

The rocket maker, the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), says it has further optimized the two new Long March 5B rockets to ensure mission success without providing details. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted words, as well as the delay in launch of these two modules, suggests China might have done some work on its Long March 5B to control the de-orbit of its core stage.

China also says the year will also include the first six month long mission on Tiangong, as well as the first arrival of two crews to the station.

My present count of all proposed launches for 2022 is just under 200, more than double the average number of launches (89) completed annually since the launch of Sputnik. U.S. companies alone right now are predicting 100 launches. While all of these numbers are uncertain, it looks like ’22 will be a banner year for space exploration.

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Forty just-launched Starlink satellites lost because of geomagnetic storm

8:47 pm

SpaceX revealed today that because of the unexpected and ill-timed arrival of a geomagnetic storm from the Sun, 40 of the 49 Starlink satellites launched on February 3rd were lost and will quickly burn up in the atmosphere. As noted at Teslarati:

SpaceX says it “commanded the satellites into a safe-mode where they would fly edge-on (like a sheet of paper) to minimize drag” as soon as it was aware of the issue but that “the increased drag…prevented the satellites from leaving safe-mode to begin orbit raising maneuvers.” Based on that phrasing, the most obvious explanation is that the added drag caused up to 40 of the satellites to fall far enough into the atmosphere that their ion thrusters would no longer be able to raise their orbits faster than the drag was lowering them. Raising their solar arrays into the position needed for maximum power generation (and thus maximum sustained thrust) would also drastically accelerate reentry.

A lot of the press and those who love to attack SpaceX have made a big deal about this, but the real news of this story is the unprecedented impact of a geomagnetic storm on some newly launched satellites. Such a thing has never happened before, and only happened now because SpaceX does not raise the orbits of any Starlink into a more stable orbit before making sure the satellite is functioning properly. If it is not, the company leaves it in a low orbit so it quickly burns up and does not add to the amount of space junk in orbit. This approach is also somewhat unprecedented, but it also demonstrates SpaceX’s generally rational and responsible approach to what it does in commercial space.

Because of this approach, however, these satellites were vulnerable to this storm. The timing had to be just perfect to destroy them, and sadly for SpaceX it was. I fully expect SpaceX to add solar activity as a factor in timing future Starlink launches.

Note: I didn’t initially comment because I don’t see this as that big a deal. The effort to slander SpaceX by some (see the quotes for example near the end of this article) however changed my mind.

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Amira & Friends – My Way

6:01 pm

A evening pause: Performed live in 2017. It is sad that too many now no longer honor someone who follows these words, but despises them instead:

For what is a man, what has he got?
If not himself, then he has naught
To say the things he truly feels
And not the words of one who kneels
The record shows
I took the blows
And did it my way

Hat tip Mike Nelson.

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Parker images the surface of Venus

3:23 pm

Parker image compared to radar maps of Venus
For original images go here and here.

During its flybys of Venus in July 2020 and February 2021 the Parker Solar Probe used its wide field camera to take images of the night side of Venus in red optical and near infrared wavelengths, essentially measuring the heat (in the range of 863 degrees Fahrenheit) being emitted by the planet’s surface.

The resulting images, the first orbital photos of Venus’ surface in the optical, showed continent-sized surface details that matched previously made radar maps, and confirmed as expected that the higher altitudes are cooler than the lower.

The paper outlining these results can be read here.

The two pictures to the right compare previous radar maps (on the right) with the new Parker image (on the left). The central dark and cooler area is a region called Aphrodite Terra, which like Earth’s continents sits higher than the surrounding terrain.

Note that though cooler, the surface at these dark areas is still hellishly hot, more than 800 degrees Fahrenheit. Exploring the surface of Venus is going to be a far far far more challenging task that going to Mars.

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Mars: Glaciers on top of glaciers on top of glaciers

1:16 pm

Overview map
Mars’ glacier country.

glaciers on top of glaciers on top of glaciers
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on December 12, 2021 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows a small patch of layered glacial features flowing in all directions. The overview map above marks its location by the red dot, at 40 degrees north latitude in the region dubbed Deuteronilus Mensae, on the western end of the 2,000 long strip from 30 to 60 degrees north latitude that I dub Mars’s glacier country because practically every image in this region shows glacial features.

What makes the glacial features in this picture so remarkable is their number, their somewhat chaotic nature, and the evidence of many layers, suggesting a cyclical process of ebb and flow over the eons.

Below I zoom into one section of this photo, showing that section at full resolution.
» Read more

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Pushback: Oral surgeon sues state for shutting down his practice for refusing COVID shots

11:38 am

Oral surgeon Stephen Skoly, blackballed by Rhode Island
Oral surgeon Stephen Skoly, blackballed by Rhode Island

Don’t comply: Stephen Skoly, an oral surgeon in Rhode Island, has sued both his governor, Democrat Daniel McKee, and the head of the state’s health department, James McDonald, for shutting down his dental practice — serving 800 patients monthly — and preventing him (and his ten employees) from earning a living, simply because he has decided for medical reasons not to get the COVID shots.

Skoly, who’s been a dental surgeon since 1990, requested medical exemption from the COVID-19 vaccine because of his history of Bell’s palsy paralysis, the complaint says, and he says he has “natural immunity” against the virus because of a “blood test” that confirmed he has COVID-19 antibodies.

More information here.
» Read more

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Have astronomers discovered an asteroid with three moons?

9:44 am

The uncertainty of science: According to a New York Times article published yesterday, astronomers have now discovered an asteroid with three moons, making it the first such asteroid ever discovered.

The asteroid, Electra, was first discovered in 1873, and orbits the Sun in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. It was already known that it had two moons. The new research thinks it has found a third.

In reading the researchers’ the actual paper describing this research, it appears that the Times is spinning the data, making it sound more certain than it is. This new result comes entirely from new software that was designed to better resolve archival images of the asteroid, and thus carries a lot of uncertainty. From the paper’s conclusion:

[There remain] a lot of uncertainties remain concerning the orbit of S3 [the new asteroid moon]. More data on S2 and S3, as well as a more thorough dynamical study are necessary to solve the problem of the motion of the satellites of Elektra. However, the discovery of the first quadruple asteroid system slightly opens the way for understanding the mechanisms of the formation of these satellites.

In terms of data processing, S3 is barely visible in the data reduced with the standard pipeline and processed with standard halo removal algorithms and it was missed until now.

The paper repeatedly notes that the orbital data for Electra and its moons is presently “poorly constrained” and needs significant refinement in order to confirm this result.

If true, however, these moons are probably pieces that broke off of Electra at some point in the past, and could provide good information about the long term history of asteroids in the asteroid belt.

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Swiss startup raises $29 million to build a hypersonic commercial plane

9:31 am

Capitalism in space: Destinus, a new Swiss startup, has successfully raised $29 million in seed money to begin development of a hypersonic commercial plane.

Destinus is developing a vehicle that takes off and lands horizontally under the power of airbreathing jet engines. Once out of controlled airspace, Destinus’ hyperplane is designed to accelerate to hypersonic speeds with the help of a cryogenic hydrogen-fueled rocket engine, according to the company’s Feb. 8 news release.

Destinus has been testing airbreathing engines during flight tests of an unpiloted prototype. By the end of the year, the company aims to show its prototype can break the sound barrier

This company’s founding has an interesting backstory. Its founder, Mikhail Kokorich, was a major investor in the American space tug company Momentus. When the Defense Department forced him to sell his share in that company last year because he was not an American, he moved to Switzerland to form Destinus instead. Nor is this Kokorich’s only endeavors in commercial space. He has started a number of other small companies previously.

Don’t expect Destinus’s plane to fly in the near future. Though it has already flown a small scale prototype, the company only started to hire engineers in the past few months.

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Ingenuity completes 19th flight

9:19 am

Perserverance and Ingenuity as of February 8, 2022
Click for interactive map.

The Mars helicopter Ingenuity yesterday successfully completed its 19th flight on the Martian surface, traveling for 99 seconds about 200 feet to the northeast, landing close to the landing site of its 8th flight back in June 2021.

The map to the right shows the helicopter’s overall travels in tan, with the 19th flight path in green. The white line marks Perseverance’s travels, with the red dot indicating its present location. The dashed yellow line indicates the rover’s planned route. To achieve that the rover team is retracing its steps along the path it had previously traveled, with Ingenuity flying in front, along that path.

The flight had been delayed more than a month while waiting for a dust storm to settle as well as making sure Perseverance was in a good position to maintain communications throughout the flight. With Perseverance finally on the move to the east and the dust storm subsiding, the Ingenuity flight was finally possible.

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Pioneer game update: Full demo of game released

9:31 pm

Though no launch date for the Kickstarter campaign for funding the creation of a videogame based on my science fiction book Pioneer has been announced, the producer, Aaron Jenkin, early this week released the full demo of the game. You can download a version for either Windows, Mac, or Linux here.

I’ve played the Linux version and had a great time. While this is only a demo, Aaron has captured the feel of my book, while adapting it to the needs of a video game. I really hope when the Kickstarter campaign starts, it quickly raises enough to produce the game. It will be a blast for players.

For those who want to get the game’s newsletter updates, published about once per week, you can subscribe at PioneerSpaceGame.com. If you are definitely interested in donating to the game, you should also subscribe as it gives Aaron a sense of the amount of interest (the numbers have been rising quickly in the past month, a very good sign!).

For those who want to get a sense of of what the game itself will be like now, below the fold is the game’s trailer.
» Read more

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Random Martian ridges on a lava plain

1:02 pm

Random ridges on Martian lava plain
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on December 30, 2021 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). This was a terrain sample image, taken not as part of any specific research project but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule and thus keep its temperature maintained properly. When the MRO team needs to take such pictures, they try to pick locations that might be interesting and previously unphotographed, but often the location is neither.

In this case this terrain sample captured a flat lava plain interspersed with sinuous ridges going in all directions. On top of this is a scattering of smaller impact craters, which obviously occurred after the lava had flowed and solidified.

What caused the ridges?
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Pushback: Conservative Hispanic student defeats effort to blacklist her

11:29 am

Olivia Gallegos
Gallegos is also participating in Wichita State’s
first Collegiate Leadership Competition

Don’t comply: Despite being Hispanic, Olivia Gallegos — a student at Wichita State University and an elected member of its student government — was accused of being a white supremacist and threatened with removal because she nominated a conservative woman for recognition by the school’s Diversity, Empowerment and Inclusion Committee.

It seems that committee wanted nothing to do with diversity of thought, even if it empowered a woman.

“Basically by highlighting a conservative, I was [called] a white supremacist and [accused of] giving a platform to white supremacy,” she said. “I just laughed, because I’m Hispanic.”

But the effort to force Gallegos to resign never came to fruition. “I had to sit through a 2.5-hour senate review board where they ultimately determined, ‘You did nothing wrong. But we’d like you to meet with diversity and inclusion to learn how to respond to things like this, and use this as a learning experience,’” Gallegos said.

She refused.

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Space tug company picks Falcon 9 for test flights

9:39 am

Capitalism in space: Launcher, one of several space tug startups, has awarded SpaceX the contract to launch its first four test flights of its Orbiter tug.

Launcher announced Feb. 7 it signed a multi-launch contract with SpaceX for three additional missions of its Orbiter tug. Those tugs will fly on Falcon 9 rideshare missions in January, April and October of 2023.

Launcher’s first Orbiter tug will launch on SpaceX’s Transporter-6 rideshare mission in October 2022 under a contract announced last June when the company revealed its plans to develop Orbiter. The vehicle is designed to deploy cubesats and other smallsats in their desired orbits as well as host payloads for missions lasting up to two years.

Launcher — along with Momentus, Spaceflight, Astroscale, and several others — are all rushing to build and launch the first tugs for transporting satellites from orbit to orbit, or to remove space junk. Launcher’s deal with SpaceX suggests it is tailoring its system for satellites launched from the Falcon 9.

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Rogozin’s salary rockets upward

9:24 am

The salary of Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Roscosmos which runs Russia’s entire space industry, has grown from a mere $100K when he took over in 2018 to $1.3 million in 2020.

During the most recent year for which salary data is available, 2020, Rogozin was paid $1.3 million—and this does not include perks of the job, such as four vehicles, real estate holdings, spousal pay, and possibly off-the-books income. Before his imprisonment, Russian critic Alexei Navalny released an investigation of Rogozin and the corruption at Roscosmos that delves into some of these benefits.

Rogozin has seen a stunning rise in his fortunes since coming to Roscosmos. Before his move, he earned about $100,000 per year as deputy chairman in the Russian government. In 2018, his salary jumped to $513,000, and in 2019, it went up to $639,000.

By way of comparison, NASA, which has a budget several times larger than that of Roscosmos, pays Administrator Bill Nelson an annual salary of $185,100.

Rogozin is merely doing what all high level managers in Russia do. They get a job, and while there suck as much cash from it as they can before moving on or getting fired. The gigantic and fast increase in these numbers suggest Rogozin does not expect to remain in charge that much longer.

This pattern is very similar to what happened in the Roman Empire. The Caesar in Rome would appoint governors to the various outlying provinces in Germany, France, England, and the Middle East, who would then skim off for themselves as much cash from tax revenues as they could get away with, then retire back to Rome to live the good life. Meanwhile, governance in those provinces would suffer, to the point that eventually the empire fell.

Rogozin appears to be doing the same in Roscosmos, which suggests not much will come from its many projects to come up with new rockets, spacecraft, and space stations in the coming years.

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Lockheed Martin wins NASA contract to build Mars rocket

9:11 am

Capitalism in space: NASA yesterday awarded Lockheed Martin a $194 million contract to build the Mars rocket that will lift Perseverance’s samples into orbit for return to Earth.

Set to become the first rocket fired off another planet, the MAV [Mars Ascent Vehicle] is a crucial part of a campaign to retrieve samples collected by NASA’s Perseverance rover and deliver them to Earth for advanced study. NASA’s Sample Retrieval Lander, another important part of the campaign, would carry the MAV to Mars’ surface, landing near or in Jezero Crater to gather the samples cached by Perseverance. The samples would be returned to the lander, which would serve as the launch platform for the MAV. With the sample container secured, the MAV would then launch.

Once it reaches Mars orbit, the container would be captured by an ESA (European Space Agency) Earth Return Orbiter spacecraft outfitted with NASA’s Capture, Containment, and Return System payload. The spacecraft would bring the samples to Earth safely and securely in the early- to mid-2030s.

According to this project’s webpage, the European Space Agency (ESA) is building that they call a “fetch rover” which will be deployed from the rover to get the samples and bring them back to the MAV.

There are a lot of uncertainties in this scenario. It has been decades since Lockheed Martin built rockets. ESA has not yet built an operational Mars rover. It is also unclear who will build NASA’s lander and capture/return payload. Thus, do not expect this mission to launch “as early as ’26,” as the press release says. I predict it will launch at least five, maybe ever ten years, later.

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Astra launch aborts at T-0

12:17 pm

UPDATE: The launch has been scrubbed for the day. No word on when they will reschedule, nor has Astra released any information as to what caused the launch abort, other than a “telemetry issue.”.

Capitalism in space: The second attempt by Astra to launch its first commercial satellites on its second orbital launch from Cape Canaveral aborted at T-0.

The launch on February 5th was scrubbed when some radar equipment used by the range failed.

The launch team is presently reviewing the data to see if they can recycle and attempt another launch today. This would be the second recycle today, as the first launch attempt was held about a minute before launch and then recycled, leading to the launch abort at T-0. The launch window still has about 100 minutes left.

The rocket is carrying four cubesats, three built by students at three different universities, with the fourth built by engineers at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in their effort to learn how to build cubesats for themselves.

I have embedded Astra’s live stream below the fold, for those who wish to watch.
» Read more

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Pushback: Huge increase in homeschooling in VA

11:46 am

Home-schooling: a example of liberty in action
Home-schooling: a example of liberty in action

Because of oppressive and racist policies that include mask mandates, remote schooling, and the teaching of the bigoted and Marxist program dubbed Critical Race Theory, Virginia has seen a huge increase in home schooling in the past two years.

Homeschooling in Virginia has increased by nearly 40% since 2019, which has been partly fueled by the implementation of critical race theory in classrooms and the coronavirus. “The children don’t belong to the state. I think parents really want to impart their own values to their children – their values and beliefs and their own worldview. And that is a major reason parents are home schooling,” Yvonne Bunn, director of government affairs for the Home Educators Association of Virginia, told the Virginia Mercury earlier this month.

There are currently about 62,000 homeschoolers in Virginia, according to Virginia Department of Education data. There were 44,226 homeschoolers in the state during the 2019/2020 school year, marking a more than 39% increase. The numbers this year are slightly down from the 2020/2021 school year, when 65,571 students were homeschooled.

» Read more

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Astronomers organize lobbying group to block satellite constellations

10:13 am

The International Astronomical Union (IAU) has now created an office to lobby governments worldwide to block the coming commercial launch of numerous satellite constellations.

The IAU claims that the first goal of this new office will be to study the effects of these satellites on ground-based astronomy accompanied by an effort to work with industry to mitigate those effects.

That is a lie. This is the office’s real purpose:

Another role for the center will be to create national and international laws and norms for what regulators allow in orbit. “We need to codify these good intentions, to have some backup,” says Richard Green of the University of Arizona’s Steward Observatory. “We’ll take a two-pronged approach: Cooperate and develop legislation to apply if necessary.” IAU and other bodies are working to convince the United Nations’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space of the need for legislation. “We are confident that we will have guidelines that will have to be followed by companies in the near future,” Benvenuti says. Cosmologist Aparna Venkatesan of the University of San Francisco says it would be good if there were laws in the United States and elsewhere that echoed the influential U.S. Clean Air Act: “Many of us dream of a Clean Skies Act.”

Rather than realize that things are changing and Earth-based astronomy is becoming obsolete, the astronomers wish to use the force of law to block progress by others so that they can continue to live in the past.

The time to have moved all cutting edge astronomical research off the planet arrived more than three decades ago. The astronomers refused to recognize this, focusing instead on building giant telescopes on the ground that had less capability than the Hubble Space Telescope and were dogged by political and engineering challenges that hindered their success.

Had astronomers instead focused on building many small orbiting optical telescopes, the threat of satellite constellations now would be minimal. Instead, astronomers would be poised to build the bigger space-based telescopes they need. Instead, they are grounded, with the needed future space-based telescopes possibly decades away.

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