Behind The Black – Robert Zimmerman

SpaceX now valued at $100 billion, the world’s 2nd most valuable private company

October 9, 2021 10:40 am Robert Zimmerman

Capitalism in space: Because of the high price that some of its investors were able to get selling their private shares of SpaceX, the company’s valuation was reassessed upward from $74 to $100 billion and making it the second most valuable private company in the world.

The stock sale did not raise money for SpaceX as it was a secondary sale by these investors to get a profitable return on their initial investment. Regardless, the stock price they were able to get increased the company’s value.

The high price also illustrates objectively what investors think of SpaceX’s value. No matter what the critics may say, when the time comes to lay the money on the table, those willing to do it are convinced SpaceX is going to be successful in cashing in on its various space projects.

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New Horizons discovers two binary asteroids in Kuiper Belt

October 9, 2021 10:32 am Robert Zimmerman

Click for full map.

As New Horizons traveled from Pluto to the asteroid Arrokoth in 2018, scientists used it to take images of the relatively nearby asteroids that it was passing, and found that two of those asteroids appeared elongated.

[T]he team fit the shapes with a two-body model: two asteroids in a tight orbit. Even though the individual rocks weren’t resolved, the modeling showed that two bodies were better able to explain the elongation, as well as the brightness seen. The model for 2011 JY31 had two 50-km-wide objects nearly 200 km apart, while for 2014 OS393, the model had slightly smaller bodies (30 km across) that orbited each other 150 km apart.

The map, cropped and further annotated by me, shows New Horizons’ path during this time period, with the two binary asteroids indicated in blue.

This data, combined with the double lobe shape of Arrokoth (formerly named Ultima Thule), strongly suggests that it was not unusual for these primitives asteroids in the early solar system to coalesce from comparably sized partners.

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Update on Boeing’s investigation into Starliner valve issue

October 9, 2021 10:10 am Robert Zimmerman

NASA yesterday issued an update on Boeing’s investigation into Starliner valve issue, noting that progress is being made.

Boeing has demonstrated success in valve functionality using localized heating and electrical charging techniques. Troubleshooting on the pad, at the launch complex, and inside the Starliner production factory at Kennedy Space Center has resulted in movement of all but one of the original stuck valves. That valve has not been moved intentionally to preserve forensics for direct root cause analysis.

Most items on the fault tree have been dispositioned by the team including causes related to avionics, flight software and wiring. Boeing has identified a most probable cause related to oxidizer and moisture interactions, and although some verification work remains underway, our confidence is high enough that we are commencing corrective and preventive actions. Additional spacecraft and component testing will be conducted in the coming weeks to further explore contributing factors and necessary system remediation before flight.

…Boeing has identified several paths forward depending on the outcome of the testing to ultimately resolve the issue and prevent it from happening on future flights. These options could range from minor refurbishment of the current service module components to using another service module already in production. [emphasis mine]

The announcement also confirmed that the next launch attempt of the unmanned demo mission is now being targeted for “the first half of 2022, pending hardware readiness, the rocket manifest, and space station availability.”

The highlighted words raise a very serious question. How is it possible for “oxidizer and moisture interactions” to cause this problem now on Starliner, when the environmental conditions at Cape Canaveral for spacecraft have been understood for better than sixty years? Though this problem might have uncovered a previously undetected fundamental engineering issue related to valves, I am very skeptical. It seems more likely that some quality control issue occurred during this capsule’s assembly. That they are considering using a different Starliner capsule for the demo flight strongly confirms this, suggesting again that the valve issue is not systemic to all valves but is specifically linked to the assembly of this capsule.

If this speculation is correct, it suggests there are some some very disturbing quality control problems in Boeing’s Starliner design and assembly processes. First they missed about sixty software issues that forced the premature landing of the capsule in the first demo flight, issues that should have been fixed during design and construction. Now it appears they have discovered assembly problems with the capsule’s valves, and only did so mere hours before launch.

Boeing has got to get these issues fixed, or it is going to have a serious public relations problem garnering private customers outside NASA once Starliner begins commercial flights.

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October 8, 2021 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast

October 8, 2021 6:04 pm Robert Zimmerman

Embedded below the fold in two parts.
» Read more

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Numberphile – The Strange Orbit of Earth’s “Second Moon”

October 8, 2021 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: There is joyful art hidden in all existence. You simply have to have the open-mindedness to look for it.

Hat tip Tom Donohue.

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Off day

October 8, 2021 4:24 pm Robert Zimmerman

Sorry for the light posting today. For many reasons I got no sleep last night, and then today had to see the dentist. Ugh.

I’ll probably pick it up tomorrow as we don’t have any major plans for this weekend.

I should add that even though I am not posting much today, my readers are filling the gap with some truly thoughtful comments.

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Today’s blacklisted American: Policeman suspended for four months for praying

October 8, 2021 10:17 am Robert Zimmerman

The Bill of Rights cancelled in Louisville
No freedom of speech allowed in Louisville.

They’re coming for you next: Matt Schrenger, a police officer in Louisville, Kentucky, was suspended for four months simply because, while off duty and not in uniform, he quietly prayed with his father on the street outside an abortion clinic.

The prayer event took place on February 2021.

That same day, Schrenger was locked out from his work computers, relieved of his police vehicle, and removed from the patrol schedule. Schrenger was suspended and he was stripped of his police powers, pending investigation of his off-duty prayer.

Schrenger was wrongly accused of violating Louisville Metro Police Department Standard Operating Procedures and Kentucky law. By way of a letter dated June 15, 2021, LMPD [Louisville Metro Police Department] Chief Shields admitted that none of the allegations against Officer Schrenger could be sustained. Even after that letter, Schenger’s police powers inexplicably were not restored until June 29, 2021. Even though the facts of the incident were not in dispute, it took the police department more than four months, plus a week, to make its decision after the off-duty prayer incident. [emphasis mine]

The article also notes that on that same day numerous other officers were participating in both a gay rights parade and a Black Lives Matter protest, while on duty and in uniform, and received no punishment though those actions did violate Kentucky law and the department’s procedures.
» Read more

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Data from Perseverance confirms Jezero Crater once held a lake

October 8, 2021 6:52 am Robert Zimmerman

figure 5 from paper showing ancient lake in Jezero Crater

According to a newly published paper, the data obtained by the rover Perseverance has confirmed and refined what orbital data has suggested, that Jezero Crater once held a lake. From the abstract:

We analyze images taken by the rover in the three months after landing. The fan has outcrop faces that were invisible from orbit, which record the hydrological evolution of Jezero crater. We interpret the presence of inclined strata in these outcrops as evidence of deltas that advanced into a lake. In contrast, the uppermost fan strata are composed of boulder conglomerates, which imply deposition by episodic high-energy floods. This sedimentary succession indicates a transition, from a sustained hydrologic activity in a persistent lake environment, to highly energetic short-duration fluvial flows.

In other words, the crater first held a lake, which as it slowly dried out was periodically renewed by flash floods. The distinct delta of material that made Jezero Crater the prime landing site was apparently formed during the period when the lake existed. The conditions that caused the subsequent flash floods is as yet not been determined, though it likely is related to the red planet’s long term evolution.

The image above, figure 5 from the paper, shows the inferred lake in that early history. The red cross marks Perseverance’s landing site.

This data reinforces the fundamental scientific mystery of Mars. It shows evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars, even though other long term data of the planet’s history says the Martian atmosphere has been too thin and too cold to allow that to happen. There is evidence that the atmosphere might have once been thicker, but no computer model or theory has been able to produce a time when it was warm enough.

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Astronauts name next new Dragon capsule to fly “Endurance”

October 8, 2021 6:33 am Robert Zimmerman

The astronauts who will fly on SpaceX’s new Dragon capsule at the end of this month have named it “Endurance”, for a variety of reasons.

“First off,” said [mission commander Raja Chari], “it is a tribute to the tenacity of the human spirit as we push humans and machines farther than we ever have, going both to stay and extended stays in low Earth orbit, opening it up to private companies and private astronauts and knowing we will continue our exploration to go into even further and continue.”

“Also, it is a nod to the development teams, production teams [and] training teams that got us here, who have endured through a pandemic,” he said.

…Lastly, there was a historical connection — one that spoke to the mission they are about to embark on and the skills it will take for it be successful.”I go straight to the Shackleton voyage,” said Marshburn, referring to Ernest Shackleton’s 1914 expedition to cross Antarctica. Shackleton’s ship, the Endurance, was trapped in ice and he and his crew endured months of hardship before being rescued.

SpaceX’s fleet of manned capsules now includes Endeavour, Resilience, and Endurance. A fourth capsule is scheduled to fly in April ’22, but no name as yet has been announced.

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Chang’e-5 lunar samples youngest ever found

October 8, 2021 6:28 am Robert Zimmerman

The uncertainty of science: The lunar samples returned to Earth by China’s Chang’e-5 lander have been found to be the youngest ever found, about two billion years old and a billion years younger than any other previous sample, with a composition that confirms the material in this area was also the youngest volcanism so far found on the Moon.

Collecting young lunar rocks was one of the main objectives for the Chang’e-5 mission, which sent a lander to the Moon in December 2020. The craft grabbed 1.7 kilogram (4 pounds) of lunar regolith from the vast volcanic plain of Oceanus Procellarum and flew back to Earth within the month. Observations from lunar orbit had identified this mare to be younger than other areas by its paucity of craters, which suggested that the lava there had flowed more recently. By dating the samples returned to Earth, the scientists confirm that volcanism occurred later in Oceanus Procellarum than other areas of the Moon.

Many news stories are claiming that the young age of these samples is a surprise, but this isn’t true. It was expected, as the quote above indicates.

However, the composition of the rocks did not match what was expected. Though created by volcanism, it appears the material did not have kind of composition seen in other lunar volcanic rocks. This is now a new puzzle for scientists.

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James Hill – Billie Jean

October 7, 2021 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: Performed live, 2011, with his imaginary band.

Hat tip Dan Morris.

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Today’s blacklisted American: Seattle runs segregated critical race theory classes, teaching that whites are evil

October 7, 2021 12:58 pm Robert Zimmerman

Eagerly discriminated against in Seattle

“Segregation today, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever!” The city government of Seattle is funding a series of segregated critical race theory (CRT) seminars for its employees, with whites and blacks sent to different sessions, which then teach from these different perspectives that all whites are racist and evil and work to oppress blacks.

City staffers ‘who identify as people of color’ were invited to the three-hour ‘Internalized Racial Inferiority’ session on September 3, after it was organized by the city-funded Race and Social Justice Initiative (RSJI), revealed KTTH radio host Jason Rantz on Monday.

A similar sister session was offered exclusively to white workers, which taught attendees that they are ‘responsible’ for racism because of the color of their skin.

The lesson was billed as a way to explore ‘the process which American conditioning, socialization and history leads People of Color to internalize racialized beliefs, ideas and behaviors about themselves, undergirding the power of White Supremacy.’ It also outlined 10 ‘truths’ that must be accepted by city employees, which include, ‘colonialism is at the root of white supremacy,’ ‘Racism is based on the legal and social construction of whiteness’ and ‘Government has a responsibility to be anti-racist.’

Those ten truths, shown in seminar documents at the link, also specifically demand that blacks and American Indians be given special and favored treatment.

Essentially, these are Nazi-like courses designed to foster hate between the races, and encourage all to oppress whites. Worse, the racist 10 “truths” that form the heart of these seminars are all lies, based on nothing but Marxist propaganda.
» Read more

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SpaceX to double its fleet of reusable manned Dragon capsules

October 7, 2021 11:07 am Robert Zimmerman

Capitalism in space: Based on the launch plans now announced, SpaceX will double its fleet of reusable manned Dragon capsules from two to four.

The upcoming October 30th launch of a new crew to ISS will use a new as yet unnamed Dragon capsule. In addition, the April ’22 flight will use another new capsule.

The four previous manned Dragon flights used Resilience (twice) and Endeavour (twice).

At the moment SpaceX appears to be reserving Resilience for non-ISS tourist flights. It was used in September in this way for the Inspiration4 private mission, and I expect it will be used again for the December Space Adventures tourist flight. For these non-ISS flights SpaceX removed Resilience’s docking port, replacing it with a large window.

The result will be that a private American company will own its own fleet of manned spaceships, three of which can dock with ISS, and one of which aimed at just orbiting the Earth. That’s a private company, not a nation. And that private company made it happen in just a little over a decade.

Who knows what wonders capitalism and freedom could accomplish, if we simply had the courage to let it?

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Advocacy group in India calls for criminal prosecution of Musk and Starlink

October 7, 2021 10:56 am Robert Zimmerman

A non-profit advocacy group in India, dubbed Telecom Watchdog, has demanded that the Indian government prosecute Elon Musk and Starlink because it asks for and gets $100 deposits from customers without guaranteeing a specific delivery date for its Starlink internet service.

The organisation further asked the telecom regulator to take effective steps to ensure refund with interest, and reprimand the telecom department (DoT) officials of “inaction” on the prevailing issue. [It also] said that the firm was cheating consumers by accepting pre-orders with a deposit of Rs 7,500 ($100) for yet-to-be-launched service.

It is unclear who funds Telecom Watchdog. I would not be surprised if it is backed by those in India who have also have vested interest in SpaceX’s chief competitor, OneWeb. The Indian company, Bharti Enterprises Ltd, has invested $500 million to OneWeb, which plans to initiate service to India next year. Starlink poses a serious financial threat to that roll-out.

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Report: Reduce contamination restrictions for some future Mars missions

October 7, 2021 10:35 am Robert Zimmerman

A new policy paper from the National Academies has proposed reducing the planetary protection rules for some future Mars missions, concluding that Earth life cannot survive on Mars for long, and as long as a lander or rover does not land close to cave entrances or on extensive ice, the need to decontaminate is significantly reduced. From the press release:

In this report, the Committee focused on regions on Mars that might not be negatively impacted if visited by spacecraft that are not stringently sterilized. For missions that do not access the subsurface, such regions could include a significant portion of the surface of Mars, because the UV environment is so biocidal that terrestrial organisms are, in most cases, not likely to survive more than one to two sols, or Martian days. For missions that access the subsurface (down to 1 meter), regions on Mars expected to have patchy or no water ice below the surface might also be visited by spacecraft more relaxed bioburden requirements, because such patchy ice is likely not conducive to the proliferation of terrestrial microorganisms.

The report finds that it is imperative that any mission sent to Mars with reduced bioburden requirements remain some conservative distance from any subsurface access points, such as cave openings. Furthermore, though less stringent than current requirements, these missions with relaxed bioburden requirements would still need some level of cleanliness, which could be achieved for instance using standard aerospace cleanliness practices.

The report essentially concluded that missions to Mars’ dry equatorial regions as well as its glacial mid-latitudes pose no risk to contaminating the red planet with Earth life.

While the press release pushes the idea that this is a reduction in the planetary protection rules, it could be seen in a much worse light. Based on the proposed rules, missions to the Martian poles or higher latitudes, where ice is extensive and not “patchy,” might be entirely forbidden. This will significantly limit Martian exploration by the United States. Meanwhile, China and Russia and others will be faced with no such restrictions.

Note too that this report likely forbids SpaceX from landing its Starship in the company’s candidate landing sites, all of which are in the northern lowland plains ranging from 35 to 40 degrees north latitude. This region is thought to have extensive ice sheets very close to the surface. To land there, the rules proposed will either require extremely strict and very costly decontamination procedures, many of which do not even exist as yet, or will forbid landing there at all.

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Biden administration to streamline regulations for commercial military satellites

October 7, 2021 10:09 am Robert Zimmerman

Biden administration has decided to use capitalism in space in the building and launching of future military reconnaissance and surveillance satellites.

The Intelligence Community (IC) and key policy-makers within the Biden administration are intensifying efforts to reduce regulatory burdens and encourage more competition in the commercial remote sensing satellite marketplace, said Stacey Dixon, deputy director of national intelligence.

While she provided few specifics about plans in her address to the annual GEOINT conference today, she did say that in their deliberations on the way forward, government officials are looking to the model of streamlined space launch licensing practices. Regulatory reform has freed the launch industry in a way that has allowed prices to loft satellites to orbit to drop dramatically, she explained, and there is a thriving ecosystem of American companies competing for business. “It is important to realize and recognize that there’s a growing consensus, not only in the IC but also among policy-makers, that the kind of change that we’ve seen in launch services is the right way to go in other areas,” Dixon said at the conference hosted by the United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation (USGIF).

It appears that the success by SpaceX and others in the rocket industry has finally convinced the Washington swamp community, from both parties as well as within the bureaucracy, to embrace private enterprise and freedom, at least in their efforts to launch their space assets.

Don’t be fooled, however, into thinking the Washington bureaucracy and the Biden administration are now free market capitalists. Hardly, as illustrated by this further statement by Dixon:

“If we don’t adapt, others will set the rules and challenge our new leadership. We should set the rules. We should influence the standards, and do so in a way that is consistent with our democratic values,” Dixon said. [emphasis mine]

The swamp is embracing capitalism because they have realized that if they don’t, they will lose all control as private enterprise runs circles around them. By now supporting capitalism, they can create the illusion that they made things happen, when in truth they have simply hitched their mostly useless covered wagon to a very powerful sports car.

Regardless, this decision is good news, as it shows that the Biden administration will continue the free market policies in space that were established during the Trump administration.

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NASA shifts Starliner crew to Dragon to get them in space

October 7, 2021 9:54 am Robert Zimmerman

NASA announced yesterday that it is is changing the launch assignments of two astronauts from Boeing’s long delayed Starliner capsule to SpaceX’s Dragon capsule, thus allowing them to get into space sooner.

Astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada were supposed to be among the first human passengers on Starliner during its first crewed flights in the coming years. Now, they’ll fly together on SpaceX’s fifth crewed mission to the International Space Station, which is slated to take place in the fall of 2022.

Both had been assigned to Starliner in 2018, but the delays at Boeing have left them stranded on the ground while others are flying. Worse, it is now unclear when Starliner will launch, as Boeing has not yet resolved the serious valve issue that scrubbed the launch of Starliner’s second unmanned demo mission in August.

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Honda developing reusable rocket

October 7, 2021 9:45 am Robert Zimmerman

Capitalism in space: As part of a larger plan to diversify its product line, Japanese car manufacturer Honda announced on September 30th that it is developing a reusable rocket comparable to Rocket Lab’s Electron.

Honda’s press release can be found here. In it the company also proposes to develop technologies for use by colonies on the lunar surface.

All of these proposals so far appear to be nothing more than PowerPoint presentations, but according to the first link above, the company says it will spend about $9 billion per year for the next five years on all these projects, which also include developing a robot and an electric plane that takes off and lands vertically. (The dollar amount seems much too high, but it is based on a conversion from the announced $5 trillion yen total Honda says it is going to spend in next five years for this research and development.)

According to the announcement, the rocket won’t launch until 2030, which will get it into the game very late. It better be revolutionary or it won’t garner much business by then.

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October 6, 2021 Zimmerman/Batchelor podcast

October 6, 2021 6:14 pm Robert Zimmerman

Embedded below the fold in two parts.
» Read more

Jay Sekulow Band – Long Time

October 6, 2021 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: The song is originally by Boston, and the lead singer here is Dino Elefante, originally from the band Kansas. Sekulow is the Chief Counsel of the American Center for Law and Justice (ACLJ), which focuses on defending the issues of free speech that the ACLU abandoned years ago.

Hat tip Mike Nelson.

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Millions have gotten COVID, almost none have died

October 6, 2021 2:21 pm Robert Zimmerman

In questioning Health & Human Services (HSS) secretary Xavier Becerra during Senate hearings last week, Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) made a comment whose significance has largely gone unnoticed. In challenging the Biden administration’s vaccine mandates that demand everyone get vaccinated, even those who have gotten the Wuhan flu and thus have a natural immunity far better than any of the vaccines, Rand said the following to Becerra:

You presume somehow to tell over 100 million Americans who have survived COVID that we have no right to determine our own medical care?” Paul asked. “You alone are on high, and you’ve made these decisions? A lawyer with no scientific background, no medical degree. This is an arrogance coupled with an authoritarianism that is unseemly and unAmerican. You, sir, are the one ignoring the science.[emphasis mine]

Most of the reporting of this hearing and Paul’s questioning of Becerra has focused on the vaccine mandate and the obvious absurdity of forcing everyone to get it, even when there is no need.

The highlighted words however are far more important. » Read more

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Today’s blacklisted American: Woman denied kidney transplant in Colorado because she is unvaccinated

October 6, 2021 1:10 pm Robert Zimmerman

The unvaccinated denied healthcare in Colorado
No healthcare in Colorado permitted for the unvaccinated. Let them die!

Persecution is now cool! A woman who has stage 5 renal failure was suddenly told by UCHealth (University of Colorado Health) — just before her kidney transplant operation — that she was banned from the hospital because both she and her donor are unvaccinated.

“Here I am, willing to be a direct donor to her. It does not affect any other patient on the transplant list,” Jaimee Fougner, Leilani Lutali’s kidney donor, told CBS4. “How can I sit here and allow them to murder my friend when I’ve got a perfectly good kidney and can save her life?”

Lutali said she received a letter from Colorado health system UCHealth at the end of September explaining that she and Fougner have 30 days to begin the vaccine process. They would be removed from the kidney transplant list if they refuse the shots. “I said I’ll sign a medical waiver. I have to sign a waiver anyway for the transplant itself, releasing them from anything that could possibly go wrong,” said Lutali. “It’s surgery, it’s invasive. I sign a waiver for my life. I’m not sure why I can’t sign a waiver for the COVID shot.”

According the article, when they first scheduled the surgery in August they were told by the hospital that being unvaccinated was not a problem. This changed suddenly in late September, at the last moment.
» Read more

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The wavy and beautiful edge of the northern ice cap of Mars

October 6, 2021 12:32 pm Robert Zimmerman

Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on August 7, 2021 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows the many layered scarp that forms the edge of the northern polar ice cap on Mars, probably more than 2,000 feet high.

Those layers are significant, as they indicate the many climate cycles that scientists think Mars has undergone over the eons as the red planet’s rotational tilt, or obliquity, rocked back and forth from 11 degrees inclination to as much as 60 degrees. At the extremes, the ice cap was either growing or shrinking, while today (at 25 degrees inclination) it appears to be in a steady state.

Why the layers alternate light and dark is not known. The shift from lighter colors at the top half and the dark bottom half marks the separation between the top water ice cap and what scientists label the basal unit. It also marks some major change in Mars’ climate and geology that occurred about 4.5 million years ago.
» Read more

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Military satellite imagery to be obtained from competitive commercial market

October 6, 2021 9:18 am Robert Zimmerman

Capitalism in space: The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is shifting how it gets the government’s military satellite surveillance imagery so that instead of having a long term contract with one company, multiple satellite companies will compete to provide the data.

Under this new imagery procurement, the NRO plans to buy products from multiple vendors and move beyond the current single-supplier arrangement that the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency signed more than a decade ago with DigitalGlobe, which is now Maxar Technologies. The NGA in 2017 turned over responsibilities for commercial imagery procurement to the NRO, while the NGA remains the primary buyer of commercial geospatial data analytics.

The NRO is expected to select at least three U.S. suppliers and structure the program with onramps for new providers. The agency also will require vendors to sign “end user license agreements” so imagery can be shared across government agencies without additional licensing fees.

This change illustrates how other government agencies are following NASA’s lead and shifting from controlling everything to buying the needed product from the open market. While NRO was getting imagery before from a commercial company, Maxar, depending on a single vendor limited competition and innovation while raising costs.

Buying the data from multiple companies means that NRO will get more choice for less cost.

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Neil Finn – Dizzy Heights

October 5, 2021 6:01 pm Robert Zimmerman

An evening pause: Performed live 2013.

Hat tip Dan Morris.

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Today’s blacklisted American: Football scout fired for refusing to get vaccinated

October 5, 2021 12:45 pm Robert Zimmerman

Coming to your town in America soon!
Death camps are coming for the unclean unvaccinated.

They’re coming for you next: The Atlanta Falcons football team has fired one its scouts, Rodrik David, simply because he, like many others, had decided that it made more sense for him to not get vaccinated against COVID.

The owner of the company had issued a policy requiring all employees, both full- and part-time, to be vaccinated. David refused, for reasons that were his own.

As noted at this report, David was good at his job, and had been working for the Falcons for the past five years.

This is his fifth season with the Falcons and his second as an area scout. He joined the club as a scouting intern during training camp, prior to the 2015 season, and was hired as a scouting assistant in February of 2016. He was promoted to pro scout prior to the 2017 season.

David was a riser.

» Read more

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Sunspot update: The boom in sunspots returns!

October 5, 2021 12:11 pm Robert Zimmerman

It is time for my monthly sunspot update, based on the most recent NOAA monthly graph, showing the changes in the Sun’s sunspot activity during September. That graph is below, annotated to show the previous solar cycle predictions and thus provide context.

In September sunspot activity boomed once again, producing the most sunspots in a month since 2016 and ending the slight drop in activity in August to return to the pattern the Sun has exhibited since the end of solar minimum. Consistently the number of sunspots on the visible hemisphere of the Sun since 2020 has exceeded the April 2020 prediction of the NOAA scientist panel, as indicated by the red curve in the graph.

» Read more

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2018 review by Blue Origin suggested changes that were not adopted

October 5, 2021 10:52 am Robert Zimmerman

Capitalism in space: Shortly after Bob Smith took over as CEO of Blue Origin he hired a consulting firm to review the company’s corporate culture and management policies, then had a top management briefing to review what that analysis had found.

Notes from that meeting by Blue Origin’s management have now become available, and suggest that the company’s management recognized it needed to make some changes in how it operated in order to better compete with SpaceX. Blue Origin had become hidebound, timid, and structured in a manner that made the creation of cost-effective engineering difficult. For example,

“Traditionally Blue team has not been focused on producibility and cost when designing,” another executive commented.

In response to the Avascent’s report on SpaceX’s cost focus, Blue Origin officials also acknowledged that they did not have an effective means of estimating costs before beginning a project. “Blue is riddled with poor estimating,” one executive wrote, specifically citing the New Glenn rocket. “The estimates barely cover the spot cost buy of that material based on market price, let alone the entire part material purchase. How did SpaceX keep to their target cost? They probably did a good job estimating. How they accomplished such good estimating is beyond me right now, but they did it somehow for their early years.” [emphasis mine]

As noted at the link, however, there is no evidence the company every made any of the suggested changes:

Whatever Bob Smith hoped to glean from the Avascent study, it’s not clear that the work has had a salutary effect on Blue Origin’s culture.

In the nearly three years since the report’s completion, SpaceX has gone on to launch more than 60 rockets, including four human missions, into orbit. SpaceX also has leaped ahead on a number of other fronts, including winning a multi-billion contract from NASA to build a Human Landing System for the Artemis Moon Program.

Blue Origin, by contrast, has succeeded in launching a single human flight on its New Shepard system—carrying Bezos into space for a few minutes in July. The company’s first orbital flight likely remains about three years away. Far from embracing openness, it remains more opaque than ever. And there are emerging questions about the company’s culture.

I would be more blunt. Prior to Bob Smith’s arrival in 2017 Blue Origin’s management style appeared somewhat similar to SpaceX’s, with regular almost monthly test flights of New Shepard. After he arrived everything slowed down, with the management style becoming all the things the 2018 Avascent study found wrong. And in the three years since that report and management meeting, it appears Smith did nothing to change anything. Blue Origin appears to remain a hidebound company going nowhere.

The company has vast resources due to the cash that Jeff Bezos has poured into it. It needs some good courageous leadership however. The main question will be whether Bezos can provide that.

5 comments

Due to cracks, Russia will no longer use Zvezda’s docking port

October 5, 2021 9:39 am Robert Zimmerman

Russian officials today revealed that they will no longer use the docking port on its Zvezda module on ISS because of the stress fracture cracks they have found in the section where that port is located.

Russia is unable to use one of the docking ports of the ISS to its full extent due to cracks in the transitional chamber of the Zvezda module, the general designer of Russia’s Energia corporation, associate member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Solovyov said on Monday. “The transitional chamber’s loss of airtightness is often mentioned these days. We are very fortunate the cracks are at the end. We shut down that compartment, thus losing one docking port, which narrows our opportunities somewhat. The crack is very insignificant, though,”

In other words, they have sealed the aft section of Zvezda to reduce further air leaks, thus also closing off access to the port.

The Russian portion of ISS presently has two docking ports on two different modules. When Roscosmos launches its Prichal docking hub in November, to be attached to Nauka’s port, they will then add four more ports.

This decision underlines the impending end to ISS’s life span. Zvezda is not the only old Russian module on ISS where stress fractures have been found. “In August they found cracks in the module Zarya, the oldest module on ISS.

Though the U.S. part of ISS shows no such problem, it is designed to rely on the Russian half for its operations. If Russia must shut down its modules then the station will not be able to function for much longer.

The U.S. will likely overcome some of these issues with the planned launch in ’24 of Axiom’s private commercial module to ISS, which will eventually evolve into an complete space station separate from ISS. For the Russians the pressure to design and launch their own new station has become more critical. Whether they can do it however is unknown. Russia has not built a new space station module in decades. Their new ISS module, Nauka, was built in the 1990s.

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Space Force payload problems force delay until ’22 of next Falcon Heavy launch

October 5, 2021 9:18 am Robert Zimmerman

Capitalism in space: The Space Force has announced that because more time is needed to prepare its military payload, the next Falcon Heavy launch, scheduled later this month, will be delayed until ’22.

This is not the first time payload issues have delayed the launch, which had been previously scheduled for July. The Space Force has not announced a new launch date, nor was it very specific in describing the issues that has forced this delay.

As for the Falcon Heavy, though there has been a long delay since its last flight in June 2019, it appears that SpaceX has four launches scheduled for ’22, with another six already contracted and scheduled for later.

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Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.