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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

So please consider donating or subscribing to Behind the Black, either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. I could really use the support at this time. There are five ways of doing so:

 

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

 

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Another Falcon 9 launch success

The competition heats up: SpaceX has successfully launched its second commercial Asiasat satellite into orbit in just over a month.

“These two satellites launching a month apart are really growth satellites for us,” [William Wade, AsiaSat’s president and CEO] said. “They’re not replacements. They’re new, incremental growth satellites for us across Asia, with C-band on AsiaSat 6 mainly in China, and Ku-band on AsiaSat 8, which was mainly for the Indian subcontinent as well as the Middle East.”

AsiaSat paid SpaceX $52.2 million for each of the launches, according to regulatory filings. [emphasis mine]

As has been noted frequently, that price of $50 million per launch is anywhere from half to a quarter what other companies have been charging. Asiasat got a great deal, and every commercial satellite and launch company in the world is aware of this.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

9 comments

  • Michael J. Listner

    It’s notable that the $50 million dollar/launch is reportedly a discounted rate.

  • Granted, but their full price is still significantly cheaper than everyone else. And you can tell that these numbers are being taken seriously when every other launch company is scrambling to rethink its business model and rebuild its rockets.

  • Now that Space X is well-established, I’m wondering how long it will be before they make it to B-school textbooks. Sure, the business and operational models are still works-in-progress, especially considering the research component, but Space X is very much a change agent in the orbital lift market.

  • Competential

    Is it? Elon Musk has said that the price will be $4,100 per kilogram, and with 13 tonnes to LEO that is spot on $52 million.

  • fred k

    I think that SpaceX is losing money at this price. Here’s my back of the envelope calc:

    Labor costs:

    4000 employees, costing $200K per employee per year

    that’s 800 million per year, or 16 flights at $50 million accounting only for labor costs.

    Assuming that overhead, you need a higher flight rate than the current one. This is true with reusability or not.

    Caveats:

    SpaceX is getting a lot more than $50million per flight for Commercial cargo.

  • Pzatchok

    Janitors get paid 200,000 a year?

    A lot of people keep saying they are losing money on each flight but not a single one has proven anything yet.

    Considering the company is still in operation I would say they are charging just enough and not losing anything.

    Never assume what the old contractors charged the US government is the correct amount for simple profitability.

  • fred k

    200K is a very rough estimate averaged over all employee classes. It is an approximation that would include other overhead costs not directly counted as employee salary. Feel free to adjust it up or down.

    I think my numbers illustrate an interesting point: Overhead dictates a “high” Flight rate for effective amortization.

  • Edward

    Pzatchok,

    You are correct that defense contractors, over the decades, fell into an expensive trap when serving the government’s needs. For instance, government created FAR regulations that add tremendously to the costs of providing goods and services.

    Fred,

    If we adjust your $200K estimate down by 25%, then at $50 million per launch SpaceX makes a profit on its 13th launch. On the other hand, if SpaceX charges $60 million per launch, then we only have to reduce your estimate by a mere 10% ($180K) for SpaceX to make a profit on its 13th launch.

    It seems to me that SpaceX is looking for the correct price for its launch services, suggesting that your estimate is high.

  • fred k

    My guess is that SpaceX is shooting for 20+ flights per year to close their business case.

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