Scientists successfully predict resumption of bursts from magnetar
The uncertainty of science: Though they have no real idea why it happens, scientists have now successfully predicted the resumption of energetic bursts coming from a magnetar and according to schedule.
The researchers — Grossan and theoretical physicist and cosmologist Eric Linder from SSL and the Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics and postdoctoral fellow Mikhail Denissenya from Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan — discovered the pattern last year in bursts from a soft gamma repeater, SGR1935+2154, that is a magnetar, a prolific source of soft or lower energy gamma ray bursts and the only known source of fast radio bursts within our Milky Way galaxy. They found that the object emits bursts randomly, but only within regular four-month windows of time, each active window separated by three months of inactivity.
On March 19, the team uploaded a preprint claiming “periodic windowed behavior” in soft gamma bursts from SGR1935+2154 and predicted that these bursts would start up again after June 1 — following a three month hiatus — and could occur throughout a four-month window ending Oct. 7.
On June 24, three weeks into the window of activity, the first new burst from SGR1935+2154 was observed after the predicted three month gap, and nearly a dozen more bursts have been observed since, including one on July 6.
They made this prediction based on data going back to 2014 that showed the three-month-off/four-month-on pattern.
As to why this pattern exists, they presently have no idea. Theories have been proposed, such as starquakes activated by the magnetar’s fast rotation or blocking clouds of gas, but none are really very convincing, or are backed with enough data.
The uncertainty of science: Though they have no real idea why it happens, scientists have now successfully predicted the resumption of energetic bursts coming from a magnetar and according to schedule.
The researchers — Grossan and theoretical physicist and cosmologist Eric Linder from SSL and the Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics and postdoctoral fellow Mikhail Denissenya from Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan — discovered the pattern last year in bursts from a soft gamma repeater, SGR1935+2154, that is a magnetar, a prolific source of soft or lower energy gamma ray bursts and the only known source of fast radio bursts within our Milky Way galaxy. They found that the object emits bursts randomly, but only within regular four-month windows of time, each active window separated by three months of inactivity.
On March 19, the team uploaded a preprint claiming “periodic windowed behavior” in soft gamma bursts from SGR1935+2154 and predicted that these bursts would start up again after June 1 — following a three month hiatus — and could occur throughout a four-month window ending Oct. 7.
On June 24, three weeks into the window of activity, the first new burst from SGR1935+2154 was observed after the predicted three month gap, and nearly a dozen more bursts have been observed since, including one on July 6.
They made this prediction based on data going back to 2014 that showed the three-month-off/four-month-on pattern.
As to why this pattern exists, they presently have no idea. Theories have been proposed, such as starquakes activated by the magnetar’s fast rotation or blocking clouds of gas, but none are really very convincing, or are backed with enough data.
