Year: 2023

Scientists publish their results from the impact of Dimorphos by DART

10:53 am

Seconds after impact
Seconds after impact. Click for movie, taken by amateur
astronomer Bruno Payet from the Réunion Island.

Scientists today published five papers outlining their results from the impact of Dimorphos by DART, summed up as follows:

  • Dimorphos’s density is about half that of Earth’s, illustrating its rubble pile nature.
  • The orbital period around the larger asteroid Didymos was changed by 33 minutes.
  • The ejection of material from Dimorphos during the impact had a greater effect on the asteroid’s momentum than the impact itself
  • The mass ejected was only 0.3 to 0.5% of Dimorphos’s mass, showing that the asteroid was not destroyed by the impact.
  • The impact turned Dimorphos into an active asteroid, with a tail like a comet.

The data not only tells us a great deal about this asteroid binary itself, it suggests that this impact method might be of use in defending the Earth from an asteroid impact. There are caveats however. First, the orbital change was not to the system’s solar orbit, the path that would matter should an asteroid threaten the Earth, but to Dimorphos’s orbit around its companion asteroid. We don’t yet know the effect on the solar orbit. Second, the impact did not destroy this small rubble pile asteroid, which means such an asteroid might still be a threat to the Earth even after impact. Third, in order for an impact to be the right choice for planetary defense, detailed information about the target asteroid has to be obtained. Without it such an impact mission might be a complete waste of time.

The irony to all this is that we knew all this before the mission. DART in the context of planetary defense taught us nothing, so NASA’s claim that this mission was to learn more about planetary defense was always utter bunkum. The mission’s real purpose was the study of asteroids, but selling it that way was hard. The sizzle of planetary defense however was a better lobbying technique, and it worked, even if it was dishonest.

That the press was also fooled by it, and continues to be fooled by it, is a subject for a different essay.

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Rocket Lab might forgo use of a helicopter in recovering its Electron 1st stages

10:20 am

According to Rocket Lab’s CEO, Peter Beck, the company might abandon the use of a helicopter and the in air capture of the first stages of its Electron rocket 1st stages and instead simply fish them out of the water, refurbish them, and then reuse them.

In the second attempt last November, Rocket Lab called off the helicopter catch because of a momentary loss of telemetry from the booster. The company instead allow the stage to splash down in the ocean, where a boat recovered it and returned it to Rocket Lab’s facilities. “This turned out to be quite a happy turn of events,” he said on the call. “Electron survived an ocean recovery in remarkably good condition, and in a lot of cases its components actually pass requalification for flight.”

He said the company is planning an ocean recovery on an upcoming flight after incorporating additional waterproofing into the vehicle “Pending this outcome of testing and analysis of the stage, the mission may move us towards sticking with marine recovery altogether and introduce significant savings to the whole operation.”

As Elon Musk has said, “The best part is no part.” It appears that by having the stage come down softly and controlled by parachutes it is possible to get it out of the water fast, without much damage. If the first stage can then be reflown then it makes sense not to bother with the helicopter recovery.

Beck also indicated during his phone presentation that the company is still targeting fifteen launches in 2023, and that the demand for launches has allowed the company to maintain its launch prices, with the prospect of raising them soon.

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UK’s bureaucracy blasted for delaying Virgin Orbit launch

10:10 am

At parliamentary hearings yesterday, the United Kingdom’s Cival Aviation Authority (CAA) was heavily criticized by commercial satellite companies for delaying the launch Cornwall launch by Virgin Orbit by six months.

The harshest words came from a manager at Space Forge, that lost a satellite on that launch when Virgin Orbit’s rocket failed to reach orbit.

Patrick McCall, non-executive director at Space Forge, told MPs on the Science and Technology Select Committee, that if the company sought to launch again in the UK it would be given “short shrift” by investors. “I think unless there is a seismic change in that approach the UK is not going to be competitive from a launch perspective,” he said. “There is no chance that Josh Western [the Space Forge CEO] would win the argument to do the next launch in the UK. Even if the UK came and said you can do it for free, I would say don’t do that.

“I don’t think it’s deliberate, I think people at the CAA want to make it happen, but it’s not working, and either we change that with a seismic shift or we save the money and spend it on other things which are achievable.”

The delay also caused Virgin Orbit serious financial problems, as it prevented it from doing any other launches in 2022, resulting in a significant loss of income.

The committee chair, MP Greg Clark, underlined the testimony afterward:

“It’s a disaster isn’t it?” he said: “We attempted to show what we are capable of, and the result is it’s now toxic for a privately funded launch. We had the first attempted launch but the result is that you as an investor in space are saying there is no chance of investors supporting another launch from the UK with the current regulator conditions.”

During the hearings CAA officials justified their actions, and appeared unwilling to consider any changes.

There are two spaceports now being built in Scotland. If the CAA is not forced to change, it is very likely that commercial satellite companies will find other places in Europe to launch, such as the new Esrange spaceport being developed in Sweden.

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SpaceX successfully launches its Endeavour capsule carrying four astronauts

11:59 pm

Capitalism in space: SpaceX tonight used its Falcon 9 rocket to successfully launch its Endeavour capsule from Cape Canaveral, carrying four astronauts to ISS.

This was Endeavour’s fourth flight. It will dock with ISS in about 24 hours. The four-person crew included two Americans, one Russian (the second to fly on a Dragon capsule), and the first citizen of the United Arab Emirates to fly on an American spacecraft. He will stay on the station for six months.

The Falcon 9 first stage was making its first flight, and successfully landed on a drone ship in the Atlantic. This was only the fourth new first stage used by SpaceX since January 2022 (out of 75 launches), and the second launched this year.

The 2023 launch race:

14 SpaceX
7 China
3 Russia
1 Rocket Lab
1 Japan
1 India

American private enterprise now leads China 15 to 7 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 15 to 12. SpaceX alone leads the entire world combined, including all other American companies, 14 to 13.

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The barren and icy northern lowland plains of Mars

5:41 pm

The barren and icy northern lowland plains of Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped and sharpened to post here, was taken on January 2, 2023 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Taken to fill a gap in the camera’s planned image schedule in order to maintain its temperature, the location was in this sense picked not for any particular scientific research project, but because the camera team decided they might find something interesting at this spot.

What they found is a vast flat plain of polygons, a feature found frequently on the surface of Mars and thought to be formed from processes similar to the drying that creates similar polygon cracks in dried mud here on Earth. In this case, the cracks are almost certainly in ice. As Colin Dundas of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Astrogeology Science Center in Arizona explained to me previously,
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March 1, 2023 Quick space links

3:57 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

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ULA about to be sold?

1:12 pm

According to anonymous sources cited by Eric Berger at Ars Technica today, the rocket company ULA may be sold by the end of this year.

The potential sale has not been disclosed publicly, but three sources confirmed to Ars that potential buyers have been contacted about the opportunity. These sources said a deal is expected to be closed before the end of this year and that investment firm Morgan Stanley and consulting firm Bain & Company are managing the transaction.

Berger correctly lists either Lockheed Martin or Boeing as the most likely candidates to purchase the company, simply by buying out their partner in the consortium. Both companies have strong reasons to obtain this company after the Vulcan rocket is flying. Boeing’s future building SLS is questionable, especially once Starship/Superheavy becomes operational. Lockheed Martin meanwhile has been very carefully moving into the new industry, investing heavily in the rocket startups ABL and Rocket Lab. It might want to own outright ULA, so it can better manage it.

Berger also speculates that Amazon or Blue Origin might be bidders as well. Somehow I doubt any company associated with Jeff Bezos will buy ULA, since he already has his own plaything in Blue Origin. Stranger things however have happened.

Either way, once Vulcan flies successfully it will then be a perfect time to put it up for sale, and others to buy it. The uncertainty will be reduced, and ULA will no longer be saddled with two rocket families, Delta and Atlas-5, both of which are expensive and non-competitive. Instead, it will have solid launch contracts with Amazon and the military, using Vulcan.

Such a sale will obviously also force major changes at ULA, possibly for the better. At such times the new management often uses the change as an opportunity to clean out deadwood as well as force major shifts in thinking.

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Today’s blacklisted Americans: Pro-lifers banned from the Washington Monument because it is a “First Amendment-free zone”

12:41 pm

banned by the Biden administration
Banned apparently by the Biden administration

They’re coming for you next: As part of the annual pro-life March for Life demonstration in DC on January 20, 2023, volunteers running a food table were forced to move away from the Washington Monument because, as one park ranger told them, they were in a “First Amendment-free zone.”

The women were setting up a table to provide some fellow pro-life supporters with bagels and coffee when a park ranger told them they were in a “First Amendment-free zone” and had to move out of the granite plaza surrounding the famous obelisk. They relocated on the grass, inches next to the plaza, with the approval of the park ranger. Later, a police officer approached the ladies and told them they were allegedly “getting complaints” about their table being on the path. Police told them they had to leave, and the women complied.

These women had set up the same table at the same spot the year before, with no problems.

Though the granite plaza itself is considered a “restricted zone” where “Activities may only occur within these areas on specified dates to maintain the contemplative and respectful environment of the memorial,” these women were only running a craft service table, an activity that the park service only the year before did not consider a violation of this rule.

Furthermore, we know this was not the reason the ranger and police officer moved to remove them. By his own words, the ranger called this area a “First Amendment-free zone,” thus telling them that they were not allowed to express their opinions there and had to leave, even though the park website itself specifically contradicts this ranger, proudly stating that.
» Read more

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Intelsat develops airplane WiFi antenna that can access both Intelsat and OneWeb satellites

9:48 am

Intelsat has now completed flight tests of a new airplane WiFi antenna designed to access both Intelsat and OneWeb satellites during flight.

By using the Intelsat and OneWeb satellite networks together, Intelsat can offer the benefits of LEO’s low latency along with the redundancy GEO provides to address network hotspots that LEO networks on their own cannot address. Whether aircraft are flying polar regions or over the most populated cities in the world, the ESA antenna will offer seamless coverage from takeoff to touchdown.

At just 90 pounds and with no moving parts, the new antenna stands just 3.5 inches tall on the top of the aircraft. The terminal’s low profile has the lowest drag of any product Intelsat has ever offered.

With this antenna, Intelsat keeps itself in the game. Airlines can provide more complete coverage by using it and signing deals with both OneWeb and Intelsat to provide WiFi to passengers.

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UK bureaucracy provisionally clears Viasat-Inmarsat merger

9:40 am

We’re here to help you! The United Kingdom’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has now provisionally approved the merger deal between the two communications satellite companies Viasat and Inmarsat by admitting the obvious, that the deal will do nothing to reduce competition in the presently thriving communications satellite industry.

Over the past 4 months, an independent CMA panel has gathered and scrutinised a wide range of evidence in order to better understand the sector, as well as the potential impact of the deal. This included internal documents from Viasat and Inmarsat, as well as the companies’ competitors (including their plans for future expansion); evidence from airlines; the CMA’s own analysis of sector conditions – and how these could change.

…The CMA’s investigation into the Viasat/Inmarsat deal has provisionally found that, while the companies compete closely in the aviation sector – specifically in the supply of satellite connections for onboard wifi – the deal does not substantially reduce competition for services provided on flights used by UK customers.

Duh. In other words, these bureaucrats spent four months determining what is self-evident to every person who pays any attention to the business of space. Furthermore, both companies are badly threatened by the new players in this industry, like OneWeb and Starlink. This dithering by bureaucrats threatens their survival, as these older companies want to merge to give them the resources to better compete. Being forced to sit and wait only increases the chances that both will go bankrupt, thus reducing competition, the very thing this government agency is supposed to encourage and protect.

Not that the CMA has come to any real decision yet. As its press release notes so nobly, “Today’s findings are provisional, and the CMA will now consult on its findings and listen to any further views before reaching a final decision.”

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