Year: 2024

Chinese solid-fueled rocket fails during launch

9:26 am

The commercial division of a Chinese space agency, dubbed CAS Space, late yesterday experienced a launch failure of its solid-fueled Kinetica-1 rocket, lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

A statement by the pseudo-company described the failure tersely:

We can confirm that the first two stages were nominal. Stage 3 lost attitude three seconds after ignition and the self-destructing mechanism was activated.

Nothing was said about where the first two stages crashed inside China, or whether they landed near habitable areas.

According to the first link above, this was the second launch failure by China in 2024, which is incorrect. This was the third launch failure for China (see here and here for previous two). That article also says this was the 68th total launch this year, suggesting China has completed 66 successful launches. This does not jive with my count, which presently says China has had 64 successful orbital launches this year. I suspect the two additional launched might have been suborbital tests — such as first stage hop tests (here, here, and here) — which I do not include in these totals. It also might be including the accidental launch of one first stage during a static fire test when it broke free and launched itself unintentional.

More recent information from my readers (see the comments below) suggests that, though the numbers above are not correct, my own count for China’s total successful orbital launches needs adjusting as well. I had marked a March 13th Chinese launch as a failure because the satellites were not placed in their proper orbit. However, using their thrusters engineers were eventually able to get them into place and they are operating. I have therefore increased China’s totals below by one.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

134 SpaceX
65 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 117.

8 comments

December 26, 2024 Quick space links

3:34 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

0 comments

Just one of many potential hiking trails down into Valles Marineris

12:10 pm

Overview map

Just one of many potential trails into Valles Marineris
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 15, 2024 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The white dot on the overview map above shows the location, on the northern interior wall of the vast Valles Marineris canyon on Mars.

As my readers know, I tend to look at the spectacular Martian photos coming back from the orbiters and rovers as much from a tourist perspective as that of a scientist. Thus, for this picture, my first thought was to consider the possibility of a trail weaving its way down the nose of that ridgeline and into the canyon. In the Grand Canyon such ridgelines often provide a route down where walking is possible the entire way, with no need for climbing or ropes.

To illustrate my thought, I have indicated the potential trail with the white line. All told this trail covers about 7.2 miles, and drops 12,500 feet. Such a drop is very steep for trails on Earth, with an average grade of 14 degrees and about three times the grade considered reasonable. On Mars, however, with its one-third gravity, I think a grade this steep would be reasonable, though certainly daunting mentally. You would not only be descending on a very steep slope, you would be doing so on the peak of this ridge, with drops of one to two thousand feet on either side.

Amazingly, the inset on the overview map shows that this trail gets you less than halfway to the bottom. All told, the drop from canyon rim to floor at this location is about 31,000 feet over 20 miles, a drop that is greater than climbing down from the top of Mount Everest. If I was to install a trail here I’d also build an inn or two along the way as rest stops for hikers.

What the trail would do is get you to the bottom of this particular ridgeline. From here the trail would have to drop off into the western hollow and from then on descend on top of its alluvial fill. The slope would be as steep, but it would be possible to alleviate that by putting in switchbacks. This would lower the grade, but increase the distance traveled significantly.

Geologically, this image shows to my eye one particular feature that is quite significant, at the rim. I will discuss this tomorrow, in my next cool image.

3 comments

New climate research debunks CO2’s ability to warm the atmosphere, even as other research shows CO2 greens the Earth

10:19 am

Climate models versus data
Click for full resolution graph.

Research that the political activists in the climate field (posing as scientists) refuse to cite is increasingly documenting two important and very encouraging facts about atmospheric carbon dioxide.

First, CO2’s ability to warm the climate is much more limited than claimed, suggesting just one more error (out of many) in the many global-warming climate models that have consistently failed to correctly predict the actual climate for at least two decades, as indicated by the graph to the right, published in January 2024. This new error involves the point where an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere can no longer cause any increase in warming.

The Taiwanese scientists found that ground temperature warming of 0.3°C was associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm and there was no additional warming at all as CO2 rose further from 350 ppm to 400 ppm. The current level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 420 ppm.

Seven Austrian scientists have also recently concentrated on CO2 and the infrared spectrum, noting that a future doubling of the gas up to 800 ppm “shows no increase in the IR absorption for the 15 u-central peak”. It is concluded that this can lead to 0.5°C warming at most. The scientists argue that climate models and their CO2 influences should be revised. Much more experimental evidence about IR radiation should be collected “before appointing current warming trends and climate change mechanisms monocausal to greenhouse gas theories”.

The second paper can be read here [pdf]. In their conclusion the scientists bluntly state that “Climate models and their CO 2 forcings should be revised.”

Nor are these two papers the only ones who have come to this conclusion. Research by others in the last two years repeatedly show that CO2 has a limited ability to warm the climate. Furthermore, all the global-warming climate models in the graph above have always recognized this fact, in that they don’t really depend on CO2 to do the warming. Instead, they depend on a convoluted theory whereby the small increase in CO2 will interact with the large amount of water vapor in the atmosphere (the real global warming component) to cause it to significantly warm the climate. This hypothesis is clever, but it continues to fail in all of its predictions.

The second positive consequence in the increase in atmospheric CO2 is its impact on plant life. It is causing a greening of the planet, which can only mean bigger crops, more food, and less starvation for every human being on Earth.
» Read more

18 comments

The known history of the Colossus of Rhodes

9:16 am

New research provides a more detailed and realistic history of the 100-foot-high statue from the ancient world called the Colossus of Rhodes.

The Colossus was a 30-metre-high bronze statue of the god Helios, built to commemorate the victory of the Rhodians over Demetrius of Macedonia, and considered one of the Seven Wonders of the Ancient World. Completed in 282 BCE, it fell in an earthquake only 56 years later in 226 BCE. The usual story is that the fragments remained untouched for 880 years until the invasion by the Umayyad caliph Muawiya I. However, literary and geological evidence suggest a more complex, and more likely, story involving several reconstructions, finishing with a devastating earthquake in 142 CE.

No one knows what it looked like or even the exact place it stood. The research ties its history however to the known earthquakes and later that had taken place at Rhodes, and thus provides a reasonable timeline for its destruction and removal. It also debunks this bit of “misinformation”:

In popular imagination, the Colossus stood astride the harbour entrance with ships sailing between his legs. This idea was first mentioned by an Italian pilgrim in 1395, who wrote that the Colossus stood with one leg at the end of the mole with the windmills and the other near St John’s chapel, later a fort. These sites are 750 metres apart, necessitating a statue 1500 metres high — a truly colossal edifice even by modern standards

The reason we don’t know where the statue actually stood is because the bronze used to forge it was exceedingly valuable. Once it was determined it could not be rebuilt that bronze did not remain in place for long.

8 comments

Russia launches earth resources satellite

9:53 am

Russia today successfully launched the last in a five-satellite constellation of satellites focused on mapping Earth resources, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

The rocket’s core stage and four side boosters fell into frequently-used drop zones in Kazakhstan and Russia.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

134 SpaceX
64 China
17 Russia
14 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 154 to 97, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 134 to 117.

0 comments

Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol

10:01 pm

A Christmas Eve pause: As I have done now for several years on Christmas day, I bring you the classic 1951 version of Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol, starring Alastair Sim. In my opinion still by far the best adaption of the book and a truly wonderful movie.

And as I noted in a previous year:

Dickens did not demand the modern version of charity, where it is imposed by governmental force on everyone. Instead, he was advocating the older wiser concept of western civilization, that charity begins at home, that we as individuals are obliged as humans to exercise good will and generosity to others, by choice.

It is always a matter of choice. And when we take that choice away from people, we destroy the good will that makes true charity possible.

It is also most important that we all heed the words of Christmas Present: ‘This boy is ignorance, this girl is want. Beware them both, but most of all beware this boy.’”

6 comments

Repost: The real meaning of the Apollo 8 Earthrise image

1:56 pm

I wrote this essay in 2018, to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of the Apollo 8 mission to the Moon. I have reposted previously, but I think it is worth reposting again and again, especially because stories about Apollo 8 still refuse to show the Earthrise image as Bill Anders took it. Even today, the Air and Space Museum did it wrong again, and it seems to me to be a slap in the face of Anders himself, who died this year while flying.
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Earthrise, as seen by a space-farer
Earthrise, as seen by a space-farer

Today is the fiftieth anniversary of the moment when the three astronauts on Apollo 8 witnessed their first Earthrise while in orbit around the Moon, and Bill Anders snapped the picture of that Earthrise that has been been called “the most influential environmental picture ever taken.”

The last few days have seen numerous articles celebrating this iconic image. While all have captured in varying degrees the significance and influence of that picture on human society on Earth, all have failed to depict this image as Bill Anders, the photographer, took it. He did not frame the shot, in his mind, with the horizon on the bottom of the frame, as it has been depicted repeatedly in practically every article about this image, since the day it was published back in 1968.

Instead, Anders saw himself as an spaceman in a capsule orbiting the waist of the Moon. He also saw the Earth as merely another space object, now appearing from behind the waist of that Moon. As a result, he framed the shot with the horizon to the right, with the Earth moving from right to left as it moved out from behind the Moon, as shown on the right.

His perspective was that of a spacefarer, an explorer of the universe that sees the planets around him as objects within that universe in which he floats.

When we here are on Earth frame the image with the horizon on the bottom, we immediately reveal our limited planet-bound perspective. We automatically see ourselves on a planet’s surface, watching another planet rise above the distant horizon line.

This difference in perspective is to me the real meaning of this picture. On one hand we see the perspective of the past. On the other we see the perspective the future, for as long humanity can remain alive.

I prefer the future perspective, which is why I framed this image on the cover of Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8 the way Bill Anders took it. I prefer to align myself with that space-faring future.

And it was that space-faring future that spoke when they read from Genesis that evening. They had made the first human leap to another world, and they wished to describe and capture the majesty of that leap to the world. They succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.

Yet, they were also still mostly Earth-bound in mind, which is why Frank Borman’s concluding words during that Christmas eve telecast were so heartfelt. He was a spaceman in a delicate vehicle talking to his home of Earth, 240,000 miles away. “And from the crew of Apollo 8, we close with good night, good luck, a Merry Christmas, and God bless all of you — all of you on the good Earth.” They longed deeply to return, a wish that at that moment, in that vehicle, was quite reasonable.

Someday that desire to return to Earth will be gone. People will live and work and grow up in space, and see the Earth as Bill Anders saw it in his photograph fifty years ago.

And it is for that time that I long. It will be a future of majesty we can only imagine.

Merry Christmas to all, all of us still pinned down here on “the good Earth.”

7 comments

December 24, 2024 Quick space links

1:36 pm

Today has been, not surprisingly, a very slow news day, so I’ve been spending it trolling the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) archive for more cool images from Mars.

BtB’s stringer Jay however found some quick links, so here they are. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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