Author: Robert Zimmerman

Sunspot activity crashes

10:19 am

The monthly NOAA update of the solar cycle was released yesterday, showing the Sun’s sunspot activity in April. It is annotated and posted below.

April 2016 Solar Cycle graph

The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The red curve is their revised May 2009 prediction.

After four months of steady decline matched exactly with the low prediction from 2007 (the lower green line curve), in April sunspot activity plummeted to the lowest level seen since January 2011.

This decline shouldn’t surprise anyone. The now ending solar maximum has been the weakest in a century and, as noted here, it is now more than a year since the last X-class solar flare, the most powerful kind, with this solar maximum seeing only 45 X-class events, compared to 126 during the previous solar maximum.

As I have noted repeatedly, the big question now is what will happen during the next solar cycle. Will we get another weak solar cycle or will the sun’s sunspot activity recover? Or will sunspots vanish and will the sun enter a grand minimum, with no sunspots for decades? At the moment no one knows, though some solar scientists favor the latter.

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Saturn’s moon Epimetheus

9:14 am

Epimetheus

Cool image time! The picture on the right was taken by Cassini on December 6, 2015, and shows the asteroid-like misshapen moon, too small (only 70 miles across) for gravity to force it into a sphere. Behind it, filling the frame, is gigantic Saturn.

If you look close, you can see one crater that appears elongated, as if the impact was only a glancing blow.

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Long March 7 heads to spaceport

9:01 am

The competition heats up: The first of China’s new generation of rockets, Long March 7, is now on its way to its spaceport for its first launch next month.

The first flight of the 53-metre-tall Long March 7 will take place in late June, according to CASC’s Yang Baohua, and will test the design and performance indicators. The 600 tonne, 3.35m diameter rocket will carry a scaled-down version of a new Chinese re-entry capsule for human spaceflight, chief designer of China’s human space program Zhou Jianping revealed in March.

The article provides some good detailed information about China’s new rockets, noting that this rocket has been designed to launch manned and cargo spacecraft into orbit, making it the equivalent of Russia’s Soyuz rocket. The more powerful Long March 5, set for launch later this year when it will put China’s next space station prototype into orbit, will be their equivalent of Russia’s Proton. In both cases, however, they will be better than Russia’s rockets, more advanced and upgraded with greater capabilities.

The article also makes note of China’s new Wenchang spaceport on the coast, which took six years to build.

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Mercury’s transit today

8:50 am

Here are a few links on today’s transit of the Sun by Mercury, which is going on right now.

I could give more, but this event is hardly as important as many new media are saying. It is interesting, and rare, and important in that it helps scientists get a better understanding of the uncertainties in their exoplanet research, but hardly important scientifically.

Consider this however: Mercury’s real orbit has it circle the sun every 88 days. If we could only detect it by the transits seen from Earth, we would only see it cross the Sun in 2006, 2016, 2019, and 2032. Figuring out its real orbit from that data would likely be impossible. Now, I realize that these seemingly random transits are partly determined by the Earth’s own orbit around the Sun, but they still illustrate that our use of transits to detect and characterize exoplanets has its limits. And in science one must always be aware of one’s limits.

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Trump calls for a minimum wage increase

9:51 pm

Researching the November Democratic primary: Republican Party presidential candidate Donald Trump on Sunday called for an increase in the minimum wage.

He did add that this is something the states should decide. However, with him pushing it he is helping to make it a political issue that will force an increase, something that has routinely damaged economies and hurt the poorest and lowest income members of society. He also added that he will negotiate with Democrats on his tax plan (which he now called “only a concept”) which will likely cause increased taxes on the wealthy.

As I’ve said, we now have a choice between a liberal Democrat and an avowed socialist/communist. Ain’t that just wonderful?

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Death threats to vegan restaurant owners for eating meat again

9:41 pm

Fascists: The owners of a chain of vegan restaurants in California are now faced with boycotts and death threats because, after 40 years of being vegetarians, they have started eating meat again.

Protesters outside of the Cafe Gratitude restaurant in Venice, Calif., over the weekend carried signs that read “It’s not food/It’s violence” and “No animal is grateful to die.” One poster depicted a cow hanging from a rope with the speech bubble “No gracias, madre!” A stick figure of Matthew held up a knife over a pool of blood and said, “I love you…”

The Engelharts told the Hollywood Reporter that they have been receiving death threats. “People have taken up the mob mentality,” Matthew said. “It saddens me that the choices we made in the privacy of our home would lead people to feel so betrayed that it’s elevated to threats on our lives.”

How dare they leave the reservation of liberal/leftwing beliefs and do something different? How dare they? Time to set up concentration camps for traitors like these!

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May 6, 2016 Zimmerman/Pratt podcast

9:13 pm

On Friday afternoon I spent 90 minutes with Robert Pratt on his radio show, Pratt on Texas. Unlike most radio hosts, Robert wanted to hear my thoughts not just on the state of the aerospace industry, but also on today’s politics. The conversation thus ranged beyond space during the last half hour. If anyone wants to hear this conversation, the podcast be found here.

Note: The podcast now works at this link.

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Why I use Linux

2:27 pm

Linux can be a pain sometimes, and it requires a bit more hands-on work by the user to make it function, but overall in the ten years since I abandoned Windows and switched to Linux (first with the Debian operating system and now with Kubuntu) I have found my work on my computer to be far more satisfying and successful. I can mostly get things done the way I like to do them, not as dictated by some software geek working at Microsoft’s headquarters.

Which is why this story interested me: “I thought my daughter clicked on ransomware – it was the damn Windows 10 installer.” It describes a number of stories where Windows 10 took control of a person’s computer and imposed an upgrade, against their will.

This story, among many others, only confirmed for me that my decision in 2006 was a wise one. I will never return to Windows, and if I was certain that computer projectors could read Linux laptops I’d switch the laptop to Linux as well.

It is just a shame however that so many people still stick with Windows, as it often makes doing their work difficult, if not impossible. When a product doesn’t work for you, you find another product. That’s how freedom and competition work.

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Increased earthquake activity at Mount St. Helens

12:37 pm

Though the increase is not large enough to indicate the likelihood of another eruption, scientists have noted that for the past eight weeks the earthquake rates under Mount St. Helens has been increasing.

Over the last 8 weeks, there have been over 130 earthquakes formally located by the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and many more earthquakes too small to be located. The earthquakes have low magnitudes of 0.5 or less; the largest a magnitude 1.3. Earthquake rates have been steadily increasing since March, reaching nearly 40 located earthquakes per week. These earthquakes are too small to be felt at the surface.

Once again, these quakes do yet not signal another eruption. They are more likely signs of the mountain’s continuing but long and slow adjustment back to silence after the 1980 eruption. Nonetheless, they bear watching, as a volcano will do what a volcano wants to do.

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A review of Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, ten years later

12:29 pm

climate data showing pause in warming since 1998

The uncertainty of science: A new review of Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth”, ten years later after its release, looks closely at the predictions the film made to see if they have come true, or were at least pointed in an accurate direction.

Guess what? The film’s predictions have turned out to be generally wrong. From predicting an ice-free Arctic to a snow-free Mt. Kilimanjaro to more extreme weather to a continuing warming as carbon dioxide increased, Gore’s predictions have each failed.

I especially like the last one, that as carbon dioxide rose the temperatures would rise in lockstep, as predicted by all climate models. The article notes that temperatures have not done so, that the global climate temperature has been practically unchanged since 1998, and backs up this point with a paper published by the science journal Nature.

The graph above is from that paper. The black line that rises above the red, blue, and gold lines is one of the more respected climate models. The other lines are from the actual data. As you can see, the climate model fails to predict the climate, meaning that the theory used to create it is incomplete or inaccurate.

This is not to say that the theory might not be true. Global warming, initiated by the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, might very well happen. The data shows however that the climate scientists touting this theory do not yet understand the Earth’s complex global climate well enough to prove their theory true. There are other factors influencing the climate they have not yet recognized, factors such as the Sun’s variability and the fact that CO2 by itself is a actually a trace gas and not the atmosphere’s chief global warming component, which is water.

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On the radio

9:44 am

I will be spending an hour today at 5 pm (central) with Robert Pratt to talk space and politics, ranging from SpaceX to the ignorance of Houston officials of U.S. currency. Though broadcast throughout Texas, the show is also available online at the link.

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SpaceX’s second first stage barge landing

9:10 am

Below is video of the Falcon 9 first stage landing last night. There isn’t really much to see, because this happened at night. However, I must repeat that this happened at night. In other words, SpaceX was able to bring its first stage down accurately in the middle of the ocean onto a tiny barge in the dark.

Who says the impossible is not possible?

During the live telecast, the audience broke out into a chant of “USA! USA!”, as they did after the previous first stage landings. Can you guess why?

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Does Trump have the best space policy?

8:59 am

This opinion column looks at the three remaining politicians campaigning for president, and finds that Donald Trump probably has the most favorable position toward commercial space.

While all three candidates mouth favorable platitudes towards NASA and space exploration, all three also express reluctance to fund a giant government space program. Trump however was the only one to note the positive aspects of commercial space and express

…support for the government partnering with private space companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX. “I think there needs to be a growing partnership between the government and the private sector as we continue to explore space,” Trump told AIAA. “There seems to be tremendous overlap of interests so it seems logical to go forward together.”

Obviously, one can’t and shouldn’t put much faith in what any politician says during the campaign. Nonetheless, this might be a hopeful sign that if elected, Trump would push to dump NASA’s SLS/Orion and have NASA instead focus on buying space exploration services designed and operated by private companies.

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Pima county files motion to dismiss World View lawsuit

8:49 am

In the heat of competition: The Arizona county government that made a deal with the space tourism balloon company World View to help them build their launch facilities in Tucson has filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit by the Goldwater Institute that claims the deal is illegal.

I don’t know if the deal was illegal, but I suspect that even if it was the county will win and the deal will go through. Too much money at stake.

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Global elevation map of Mercury

8:39 am

The science team for Messenger have now released a new digital elevation model of Mercury’s global surface.

The new product reveals a variety of interesting topographic features, as shown in the animation above, including the highest and lowest points on the planet. The highest elevation on Mercury is at 4.48 kilometers [2.78 miles] above Mercury’s average elevation, located just south of the equator in some of Mercury’s oldest terrain. The lowest elevation, at 5.38 kilometers [3.34 miles] below Mercury’s average, is found on the floor of Rachmaninoff basin, a basin suspected to host some of the most recent volcanic deposits on the planet.

If you watch the animation at the link, you will notice that the high points tend to cluster in the lower latitudes, while the low points tend to favor the high latitudes, suggesting a very slightly bulged shape, which is not surprising considering Mercury’s close proximity to the Sun.

The data release today also included an additional map showing the known geological features in more detail.

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SpaceX lands the first stage again!

12:08 am

The competition heats up: In tonight’s launch, SpaceX not only put a commercial satellite into geosynchronous orbit, it successfully landed the first stage on a barge, a landing they did not expect to succeed.

Go here to watch a launch replay. The landing is at about 38 minutes.

With this success, I think they have demonstrated that they can recover that first stage in almost every circumstance. The next big challenge: Launch Falcon Heavy and recovering all three of its first stages.

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