Top Secret Corp Band vs Royal Marines Corp Band
An evening pause: This is called a battle of the drum bands, but in truth this particular performance demonstrates their ability to merge their talents into one grand show.
Hat tip Phil Berardelli.
Author: Robert Zimmerman
July 11, 2023 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay
- Russia’s Luna-25 lander delivered to launchpad in Vostochny
The official launch date has not been released, but it is now expected to be in mid-August.
- Vast hires former NASA astronaut as “advisor”
The job description implies retired astronaut Garrett Reisman is only a consultant.
- Japan announces August 26, 2023 launch date for next H2A rocket launch
Though the payload includes a Japanese lunar lander as well as an X-ray space telescope, the real importance of this announcement is that it tells us that Japan’s investigation into its H3 rocket failure has learned enough to no longer block H2A launches as well.
Blue Origin BE-4 rocket engine explodes during test
This failure has been kept very quiet, but on June 11, 2023 during a static fire engine test of a Blue Origin BE-4 rocket engine, it exploded 10 seconds into the test.
During a firing on June 30 at a West Texas facility of Jeff Bezos’ space company, a BE-4 engine detonated about 10 seconds into the test, according to several people familiar with the matter. Those people described having seen video of a dramatic explosion that destroyed the engine and heavily damaged the test stand infrastructure. The people spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to discuss nonpublic matters.
The engine that exploded was expected to finish testing in July. It was then scheduled to ship to Blue Origin’s customer United Launch Alliance for use on ULA’s second Vulcan rocket launch, those people said.
The story is based on anonymous sources, but if true it means another serious setback for both ULA’s Vulcan rocket and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket. Vulcan has the BE-4 engines it needs to launch its first Vulcan, but it might feel forced to delay that launch until it receives the analysis of this failed test.
It also means that even after more than a decade of development, Blue Origin has still not worked out all the kinks in its BE-4 engine. This inability does not speak well for the company. Are they not testing enough? Are they not questioning their designs enough?
Citizens are fleeing cities run by Democrats in record numbers
This story is simply another data point in a well known trend that became very clear during and after the panic over COVID: The populations of cities run by Democrats are dropping faster than ever before, as citizen flee these badly run crime-ridden hellholes where only honest citizens get punished for defending themselves.
The number of people who used to live in Los Angeles County and Cook County in Illinois continues to plummet.
Los Angeles County posted the largest population decline of all counties in the United States in 2022, falling by 90,704 and continuing a downward trend. It lost nearly twice that amount (180,394) in 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 estimates released Thursday. Cook County, home to Chicago, lost 68,314 people from July 2021 to July of last year.
…The biggest losers were Los Angeles County, California (-90,704); Cook County, Illinois (-68,314); Queens County, New York (-50,112); Kings County, New York (-46,970); and Bronx County, New York (-41,143).
Not surprisingly, the counties with the greatest influx of new residents were in traditionally conservative states, Texas, Florida, and Arizona, though Arizona will probably lose that status as its many refugees from California arrive and continue to vote for Democrats.
Can anyone explain this trend? It seems so puzzling that people would flee cities run by Democrats to go places where Republican rule has dominated.
All UN climate models vastly over-estimate warming in the U.S.
According to a direct comparison between actual data and the three-dozen climate models used by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the models all overestimate the warming that has happened, sometimes by ridiculous amounts.
The graph to the right shows “the 50-year area-averaged temperature trend during 1973-2022 for the 12-state corn belt as observed with the official NOAA homogenized surface temperature product (blue bar) versus the same metric from 36 CMIP6 climate models [red bars].”
This story isn’t new, and in fact to me has become somewhat boring because the results are always the same. The computer models that global warming climate scientists have pushed at us for decades have been consistently wrong. They routinely have over-predicted the amount of warming. Since such models are expressly designed to provide us reliable predictions, and these models are not reliable or correct, I find it absurd to pay any attention to them.
At the same time, this repeated and continuing failure needs to be mentioned periodically, because politicians and climate warming activists (I repeat myself) continue to ignore this failure as they wave these models around like red flags that must to be obeyed. Not only should these models be ignored, our governments and science community should stop funding these people. Their work is a failure. They don’t deserve further grants.
Let me add one more important note: The observations show an increase of about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. This increase is almost a rounding number, considering the amount of random fluctuations that is routinely seen in the global climate temperature. Even if the trend was extended for a century (something that is not guaranteed at all), the increase would still be only two degrees, hardly a worry.
Pushback: Parents in droves reject the queer agenda and bad education of the public schools in Iowa
At the start of this year the Iowa legislature passed a law that made state funds available to parents who wished to use it to pay tuition at a private school, rather than have their kids attend public schools.
The legislature also budgeted $107 million for the program in its first year, assuming about 14,000 students would apply.
Hah! The state received 25,000 applications, almost twice what was expected. It appears parents don’t want their children learning about queers or watching transvestites performing sex acts in the classroom. More importantly, based on the failed and bankrupt reaction of the public schools to COVID, parents also realized that these public schools are failing to provide even a basic education, and want to pick alternatives.
Nor is this phenomenon unique to Iowa.
Many states responded by increasing their school choice options. At least 20 states have enacted new or expanded school choice policies since 2021.
Arizona saw a similar explosion of applications last year when the state massively expanded its school voucher program to every K-12 student. Republican Governor Doug Ducey signed a bill allowing every student to get a taxpayer-funded Empowerment Scholarship Account of about $6,500 per child. In just the first two weeks after Arizona began accepting applications, the state saw about 6,800 new students apply for the school vouchers.
The public schools are bankrupt and dying. The sooner we put them out of their misery and get all kids out of them, the sooner the quality of education in the United States will go up, while ending the left’s use of the schools to indoctrinate little children. It isn’t hard to teach reading, writing, and arithmetic. Too bad the public schools decided in the past few decades to abandon that fundamental responsibility.
Sidebar note: I continue to be under the weather, so I will post more of these short pieces rather than the longer essay I had planned to write today. No energy for the harder work, even though this is a terrible time to have to reduce my output, during my fund-raising campaign.
A Martian crater with a very weird rim
Click for original image.
In looking through new images from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), I sometimes stumble some very strange things, with today’s cool image an example. The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, and reduced to post here, was taken on May 7, 2023 by MRO’s high resolution camera, and shows the western half of a two-mile-wide crater with a very weird rim, almost as if a person had decided he wanted to reshape it with a filigree pattern.
Though only two-miles wide, this crater actually has been named Johnstown. I suspect this is because of its strange rim, prompting a research effort and the need to provide it a name. Why the rim has this repeating pattern of gaps, however, is beyond my pay grade to explain, and I have been unable to track down any research papers about it. The nearby surrounding surface suggests vaguely the possibility that this is a caldera, not an impact crater, but even so why would the rim of the caldera have these regular breaks?
» Read more
Zhurong found Mars drier than expected and less eroded than the Moon
According to a new paper, Chinese scientists using data from their Zhurong Mars rover have found little or no evidence of water in the immediate underground, while also finding the surface less eroded than the surface on the Moon.
A layer of regolith covers the surface of Mars, which is the result of geologic processes that occurred over millions to billions of years. Compared to the observations from satellites, the Zhurong rover of China’s first Mars mission (Tianwen-1) had a closer look at the properties of the regolith layer in the explored region within southern Utopia Planitia. There is evidence that the exposed materials might be related to aqueous activities. Local landforms on the surface suggest the possible presence of buried volatiles, like water ice. The radar instrument (RoPeR) on board the rover can expose subsurface structures and the dielectric properties of the regolith layer at high-resolution, to assess their composition. The loss tangent results suggest that water ice is not the main component of the local martian regolith at some depth. The scattering distribution of radar profile along the traveling path and heterogeneous subsurface features show more diverse surface processes and weaker space weathering effects on Mars than those on the airless Moon.
Since Zhurong landed in the equatorial regions, its data about the lack of water simply confirmed other data from orbit and from other rovers/landers. Though there are features even here that suggest the presence of water, that water made those features a long time ago, and is now gone.
The data suggesting the regolith is less eroded than the Moon, however, is a surprise, and counter-intuitive.
ESA to issue contract for new lander for its Franklin Mars rover
According to the head of the European Space Agency (ESA), it plans to issue a contract for new lander for its Franklin Mars rover in the next few months, replacing the Russian lander that was lost when ties with that country were broken after it invaded the Ukraine.
Josef Aschbacher, the director general of the European Space Agency (ESA), says the agency will soon release a contract opportunity to design the ExoMars mission’s lander, to replace the Russian one lost when their partnership severed in 2022. “We will issue a contract for the development of the lander, and this will go out soon, in the next few months or so,” Aschbacher told Space.com July 1, hours after the Euclid “dark universe” mission launched here. “This is all in full preparation.”
Aschbacher’s wording is vague enough to leave open the possibility that ESA is considering hiring one of the many private companies from the U.S. and Japan to build it. It is also possible it is waiting to see if India’s Chandrayaan-3 lands successfully on the Moon after its launch this week. If so, India could possibly get that contract.
The present targeted launch date for Franklin is 2028, so there is plenty of time for another lander to be built.
To raise cash Astra will sell off some of its stock
Short of cash, Astra officials have now decided to sell about $65 million worth of the company’s existing stock.
In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission published after the markets closed, Astra said it had signed a sales agreement with Roth Capital Partners under which it will sell up to $65 million of its stock in an “at-the-market” offering, where shares are sold at the going market rate.
Net proceeds from the stock sale, the company said, would go towards working capital and general corporate purposes. That includes development of its next-generation launch vehicle, Rocket 4, as well as continued production of its Astra Spacecraft Engine electric thrusters.
The stock sale comes as the company was running low on cash. Astra reported having $62.7 million in cash as of the end of the first quarter, with a net loss of $44.9 million. The company reported no revenue in the first quarter.
The $65 million figure is based on the present value of the stock. If the market price drops, a good possibility, the company will raise less.
Voyager Space’s space station will use India’s manned capsule as ferry
Voyager Space, which is one of three consortiums building private space stations for NASA, has now signed a deal with India to begin work that would make possible using India’s Gaganyaan manned capsule as a ferry to Voyager’s Starlab space station.
Gaganyaan is presently under development. India hopes it will fly its first manned mission by 2025. Meanwhile, this international deal is not the first for Voyager. It has also signed launch contracts with India to use its two smaller rockets to launch payloads, as well as signed a development deal with Europe’s Airbus.
NASA gives up on finding a new asteroid target for Janus
Without funding for its own launch vehicle, and unable to find a new asteroid target that can be reached by any future planned NASA launch, NASA has decided to shelf the Janus asteroid mission, putting the spacecraft into storage.
Designed to send twin small satellite spacecraft to study two separate binary asteroid systems, Janus was originally a ride-along on the Psyche mission’s scheduled 2022 launch. Psyche’s new October 2023 launch period, however, cannot deliver the two spacecraft to the mission’s original targets, and Janus was subsequently removed from the manifest.
The spacecraft will remain in storage, and might be revived at some point in the future, should another mission’s launch allow it to reach some other asteroid.
NASA awards new spacesuit contracts
NASA yesterday issued two relatively small spacesuit contracts to the two companies it already has hired to develop different spacesuits, one for the Moon (Axiom) and the other for orbital spacewalks (Collins).
The new contract awards provides each company $5 million to begin design work for adapting their suits for the other tasks, with the goal aimed at having two different suits for Moonwalks and spacewalks, from two different companies. For the companies, having suits that work both in orbit and the Moon will enhance their product. For Axiom, it will also allow it to develop its own suit it can use on its own space station.
The original contracts awarded Axiom $228.5 million for its Moonsuit, and Collins $97.2 million for a new orbital suit. NASA has previously spent about a billion dollars and fourteen years trying to build its own new orbital spacesuit, and had failed to create anything.
Otta orchestra – Shades of Red
An evening pause: Performed live 2022 during an all-Russian musical ethnic festival.
Hat tip Judd Clark.
July 10, 2023 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
- DARPA’s Blackjack smallsat test constellation reduced from 20 to 4 satellites
The project, started in 2017, was to prove smallsat could provide the military what it needed faster and cheaper. It appears DARPA has concluded, after launching four satellites, that such a technology test program was no longer needed. Commercial space has proved the point, hands down, far faster than the government.
- China’s Tianwen-1 Mars Orbiter snaps another picture of itself over the Mars north pole
Not particular interesting, but it allows China to tout its work.
- Rumors suggest Dish and Echostar are considering a merger
From Jay: “Both companies are owned by the same guy. They originally split in 2008.” Since the sources are anonymous, we must treat this story with some skepticism.
Your host is under the weather today, so no political column. Hopefully I’ll feel better later tonight or tomorrow.
The inconceivable scale of Mars’ canyons
Today’s cool image takes us to one of Mars’ biggest canyon systems that while linked to Valles Marineris, the biggest Martian canyon of them all, is considered a separate canyon system because it is made up of a labyrinth of criss-crossing canyons instead of a single major canyon line.
In fact, its name is Noctis Labyrinthus, as shown on the overview map to the right. In many ways its complex pattern is reminiscent of the chaos terrain seen mostly in Mars’ mid-latitudes, but there are major differences. The rectangle marks the area we shall zoom into below to show these differences as well as to feebly illustrate the grand scale of these canyons.
First, the formation of these canyons is closely linked to the volcanic events that formed the three giant volcanoes to the west. They are also strongly linked (in ways not yet fully understood) with the suspected catastrophic floods that drained from Noctis, through Valles Marineris, and out into the northern lowland plains to the east, eons ago when this dry equatorial region could have been wet.
» Read more
New Australian government cancels $1.2 billion program to launch four government satellites
The new Australian Labor government has canceled a $1.2 billion program funded by the previous government to pay for four satellites to provide both civilian and military data from orbit.
The cut will primarily affect the NSMEO program, which was to have four satellites launched between 2028 and 2033 to give Australia a new stream of information from space. While the goal was primarily for civil use, maritime situational awareness data — crucial for keeping an eye on Australia’s sovereign waters — was also part of the project. Also, the weather and earth observation capabilities would have had clear military applications.
Instead the new government has decided to continue the previous policy of using the space capabilities of “its international partners.”
It is unclear whether this decision is good or bad. If the money was to be spent buying these satellites from new Australian satellite companies, it could have helped jump start that nation’s satellite industry. If the plan had instead been to have the government design and build the satellites, then it likely would have merely been a government jobs program that would have cost a lot and accomplished little. In the latter case the new government would thus be shutting down a wasteful program. In the former it prevents a new private industry from forming.
Orbex to expand facilities in Scotland and Denmark
The British rocket startup Orbex today announced that it is expanding its factory and office space in its facilities in Scotland and Denmark, the former at its facility it leases at the new spaceport in Sutherland.
The company is adding an extra 1,500 square metres of factory and office space to its existing 4,750 square metre estate in Forres, Scotland and Copenhagen, Denmark. The additional space will increase the company’s launch vehicle production and propulsion system manufacturing capacity and add an extra software laboratory and an avionics clean room space with ISO 8 and ISO 9 sections. The additional capacity in Forres is just 3km from its test site at Kinloss, allowing for quick turnaround between the two sites, as Orbex ramps up its testing in the countdown to launch.
The press release doesn’t give any information about the expansion in Denmark. I wonder if it is occurring as a hedge against the kind of bureaucratic delays in the UK that destroyed Virgin Orbit. Orbex’s Prime rocket is presently under construction in Scotland, with its first launch planned for this year out of Sutherland. Whether it can get a launch permit promptly is doubtful, based on the fifteen months it took Britain’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to approve Virgin Orbit. Orbex applied for the launch license in February 2022 (seventeen months ago) and so far there is no word from CAA about its approval.
Other Scandinavian spaceports are under construction in Sweden and Norway, which suggests establishing facilities in Denmark could strengthen Orbex’s ties to these new spaceports, especially in Sweden as both Sweden and Denmark are members of the European Union. Norway meanwhile as strong trades ties to the EU. Orbex has also signed a deal with Arianespace to launch ESA payloads, and it could be those launches could occur in French Guiana.
It seems wise if Orbex prepares for launch problems in the UK. Today’s announcement could be signalling that preparation.
ISRO to transfer ownership of its smallsat SSLV rocket to a private company
India’s space agency ISRO has now announced that it is planning to transfer full ownership of its new smallsat SSLV rocket to a private company, with that transfer conducted through open bidding.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) will soon transfer its Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) to the private sector, after conducting two development flights of the rocket that seeks to provide on-demand services to put satellites weighing up to 500 kg in a low-earth orbit. The space agency has decided to opt for the bidding route to transfer the mini-rocket to the industry, a senior official said. “We will be transferring the SSLV completely to the private sector. Not just the manufacturing, but full transfer,” the official said.
The article does not provide a source, so this story is at present unconfirmed. It does fit with the overall policy of the Modi government, but it also clashes with the power structure in India’s vast bureaucracy that is resisting that policy. It is very possible that the story has been leaked as part of that struggle, likely by bureaucracy to gin up opposition prior to the transfer being implemented.
Up to now under the Modi government’s efforts to force ISRO to give up power, the assets of ISRO that have been used to generate commercial profits — such as its rockets — have generally been transferred to a new separate bureaucracy created by ISRO dubbed NSIL. NSIL supposed to operate like a private company, but it is wholly owned by the government, and is thus structured to retain control within that government.
If this news story is correct, the Modi government is about to bypass NSIL and force ISRO to sell off SSLV. If so this is excellent news, though the devil will certainly be hidden in the final details of the sale.
SpaceX launches 22 Starlink satellites using a first stage for 16th time
SpaceX tonight successfully launched 22 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral using a first stage for a record sixteenth time, all achieved with a period of just over three years.
The stage successfully landed on its drone ship in the Atlantic. In addition, the two fairing halves each successfully completed its ninth flight.
In those three years this one first stage flew almost as many times as all of the launches of Russia (24), ULA (20), and Europe (20). Somehow, with those sixteen launches I think SpaceX has fully gotten its full value for what it spent building and refurbishing that stage.
To understand how routine SpaceX has made all this, when that first stage landed tonight there were no cheers at SpaceX, at all. There was just routine silence, as the launch crew proceeded with what has become an entirely routine procedure.
The leaders in the 2023 launch race:
46 SpaceX
25 China
9 Russia
5 Rocket Lab
American private enterprise still leads China in launches 52 to 25, and the entire world combined 52 to 43, with SpaceX by itself leading the rest of the world, excluding American companies, 46 to 43.