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COVID-19: The epidemic is ending, why do government restrictions remain?

This essay is going to include a number of graphs [data source], showing the daily numbers related to the Wuhan virus since the beginning of the epidemic. All show that the epidemic is truly tapering off or ending, regardless of where you live. All also strongly suggest that the lock downs, restrictions, mask mandates, and the many other odious rules that were imposed initially for just a few weeks to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed but have remained in force now for many months should immediately be cancelled or removed.

And yet, these restrictions remain, in one form or another, with some rules (such as the mandate to wear masks) being expanded, sometimes to the point of idiocy. That they remain proves again that those lock downs, restrictions, mask mandates and other rules had little to do with the disease. Instead their goal was to impose new authoritarian rules on the citizenry, meant to establish new precedents of power and control for the petty dictators who wish to rule us like servants.

Daily mortality of COVID-19 across the entire United States

The first graph to the right shows the daily deaths across the entire United States. As you can see, after reaching a peak in late April, the disease began fading with the coming of warmer weather, as these seasonal flu-like diseases always do. Then, beginning in early July we saw a slow new rise that peaked in early August and has since begun tapering off.

The second peak is puzzling for a seasonal disease, but we might be able to explain it by thinking about the consequences of the lock downs. Normally a seasonal disease hits, and than fades. Normally however there are no lock downs and restrictions, which means the virus has a chance to quickly spread throughout the population, reach herd immunity, and then die.

This time however we decided to slow the disease’s spread, which means that at some point, when those restrictions were eased (not removed) we were guaranteed to see a new uptick. This is what has happened, though the uptick as should be expected is relatively small, nowhere near as severe as the initial peak.

In fact, to understand the true impact of this virus it is essential to recognize several very important components of these death numbers. First, these numbers are likely exaggerated, by at least 25%. Hospitals get more money if they claim a death came from COVID-19, so they have a strong incentive to assign the cause of death to COVID-19, even when it was only a minor factor. There is ample evidence this has been happening.

These extra benefits have also meant that COVID-19 has cured the flu! This year will see the fewest flu deaths ever, now estimated to be only 6,605 total, an absurdly low number compared to every other year, ever. In other words, of the 168,000 or so deaths assigned to the Wuhan flu a large percentage, maybe as much as half, might actually be cases that would have died (or did die) from the flu.

All told, these numbers tell us that the total deaths this year are simply not much higher than in past years, that they have either been overstated or assigned incorrectly to COVID-19. A hard look instead suggests actually that this year’s epidemic was essentially nothing more than a somewhat worse flu season, painful, but hardly justifying the panic that we’ve seen.

Second, the disease’s mortality continues to be confined almost entirely with the aged sick, with 80% of all COVID-19 deaths occurring in people over 65. Like the flu, the Wuhan flu carries practically no threat for the young and the healthy. If anything, the sooner they can all get infected, the sooner the epidemic will end, actually producing the fewest deaths because the healthy population will choke it off before it can reach the vulnerable parts of the population.

Unfortunately, we did not let this happen, and the consequences for the older population is tragic, as shown by the next two graphs.

Daily deaths in New York from the Wuhan flu

Daily deaths in New Jersey from the Wuhan flu

The first graph shows the daily deaths in New York from COVID-19, while the second shows these numbers for New Jersey. (The spike of deaths on May 7 in New York is because that state suddenly added a whole slew of new deaths, under suspicious circumstances.) These two states alone account for more than 24% of all the deaths nationwide. Both states are densely populated, and both show trends that strongly suggest that all the lock downs, mask mandates, and rules made little difference in the spread of the disease. In these places, there was no way for government to really isolate the infected population, so the disease spread fast through the entire population, and quickly reached herd immunity. As a result neither state showed any evidence of that second wave this summer. Instead, the number of daily deaths for both has generally been only a handful, throughout the summer.

Worse however have been the deaths in their elderly population, especially in New York. Rather than protect the elderly from the virus, government policies there forced infected patients into nursing homes, where the disease quickly spread to the most vulnerable population, killing thousands who simply did not have to die. For this reason, the deaths per million per day in New York was one of the highest in the world, far exceeding places like Sweden, which imposed no lock downs at all.

Once again however we must emphasize that the bulk of those deaths were still in the aged and sick population. For the general population of both states, the virus posed literally no threat. Practically no one young or healthy died from it, even those who got sick.

In these states the disease has now run its course, and no longer poses any threat. Yet, with both states the lock downs, the mask mandates, and the severe quarantine rules remain, for literally no reason related to the virus. Can anyone guess than what the real reason for those totalitarian rules might be?

Daily deaths and cases in California from the Wuhan flu.

Next we look at another big population state, California. Here, the mainstream Democratic Party press has made a big deal about the rise in COVID-19 cases beginning in mid-June. That shrill panic over this rise has however always failed to put the numbers in context, as this graph shows.

During the entire epidemic, the number of daily deaths in California has never risen significantly. In the summer the numbers averaged above a hundred per day for the first time, but there was no major change. In general, the rise in cases indicated not that the epidemic was getting worse but that the virus itself was simply not dangerous. A lot of people could become infected and either show no symptoms, or quickly get over it without much harm. As with other states, the bulk of the population dying continued to be the elderly sick, threatened by this virus in the same manner this population is always threatened by seasonal diseases like the flu and pneumonia.

Unlike New York, however, California apparently did a reasonable job protecting its elderly sick, which is likely why the death numbers have remained relatively low. Instead, the state has seen the virus spread through the younger population, and with the recent decline in new cases has probably now reached herd immunity. The epidemic here is also fading.

Daily numbers in Arizona from the Wuhan flu

Finally let’s look at Arizona, which has followed almost the same pattern of cases vs deaths as California. The daily death toll has generally remained low, even as the cases suddenly peaked during the summer months. There was a rise, but nothing beyond what you would expect during any ordinary flu season. Like California once the most severe lock downs were eased in May the disease was finally able to do what it was always going to do, spread quickly through the general population. That spread, as in all the other states that I have described, caused little harm, as this virus is simply harmless to the healthy general population.

In Arizona however the daily number of hospitalizations shows a very unnatural outburst in July. Beforehand and since daily hospitalizations averaged about fifty per day. Suddenly, the numbers rose to the thousands, a rise that is simply not creditable. This is the same kind of suspicious data tampering we saw in New York and New Jersey, and suggests the hospitals had suddenly re-categorized almost their entire patient load, assigning it to COVID-19 in order to capture the higher fees those cases would garner.

Regardless, the clear decline in new cases in Arizona for the past month once again shows that the epidemic is fading. It is over. Time to go back to normal.

But of course, normality means the politicians will no longer have the same power over the citizenry. This cannot be accepted, so the mask mandates and the revised lock downs must continue. Notice in fact how in all four states, even as the signs showed that the epidemic was fading the politicians increased their mask mandates. There is no science to justify these mandates. The research into the effectiveness of masks — properly used — to stop the virus’s spread is very inconclusive. Worse, the research into the improper use of masks suggest they are probably harmful, and might even encourage the spread of diseases. And since almost everyone uses their masks improperly, putting an unsanitary pathogen bomb on their face again and again, these mandates make no sense, under any condition.

But they remain, and have been continually expanded. Anyone want to guess why?

I will tell you if you can’t guess. We are now serfs to the state, our lives constricted by its desires to tell us how to live, in sometimes the most trivial manner. For now and into the future for generations, our political leaders will have the power to clamp down on us, shoving their boots onto our faces, whenever any minor flu epidemic might appear on the horizon.

Worst of all, too many people seem okay with this. To go back to normal means we all finally admit that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, that in fact it was never that much of a threat. This too is unacceptable. Americans have fallen in love with their fear of COVID-19, and no facts are going to dissuade them from giving up that love.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News


  • Cotour

    If you didn’t have double standards you wouldn’t have any standards at all.

    Q: If you can wait on line at the DMV, Costco, the Grocery store, why can’t you wait on line and vote in person?

    A: Because then there would be not opportunity to disrupt cause chaos and doubt.

    The double standards driven by these “Left leaning” Democrats is where the real serious trouble will be found this year, bank on it. And that is all they have to now count on.

    Trumps numbers must be overwhelming.

  • Cotour





    This is going to be one of the greatest presidential elections ever.

  • Steve Richter

    A number that would convince me one way or the other is the 2020 monthly number of deaths in the US compared to 2019. But then, as Bob points out, you have to factor in the drop in flu deaths. And discount traffic fatalities. The virus is said to have harmful effects even on those who recover from it. Blood clots and Myocarditis
    5.7M covid cases in the US should result in a measurable increase in the death rate compared to last year.

  • m d mill

    Excess deaths due to covid-19 is ultimately a highly subjective speculation, and thus seized upon by the media for manipulation.
    If anyone has a source for total deaths per day per capita from health related causes (excluding murder suicide accidents etc) in people over 50 years of age in the first 6 months of 2017,2018,2019,2020 in the US , Sweden and other countries i would be thankful. How deadly has this covid-19 pandemic really been?…It is very difficult to find this data it seems.

  • Edward

    Steve Richter,
    William Briggs has such a plot, but it is weekly rather than monthly and only goes back two years. See the third from last graph (antepenultimate) in this essay:

    The dark line is actually two lines, the CDC’s numbers for total deaths in the U.S. from all causes (including flu and traffic accidents), which are two different totals, so Briggs graphs both. The dotted line is the total deaths less those assigned as Wuhan flu deaths, so the area between the curves is the supposed number of Wuhan deaths. The chart drops precipitously for the last three weeks or so, because full reporting takes a little time.

    We do have to be careful, however. It is likely that there are excess deaths caused by the lockdowns and due to closure of medical facilities to those not suffering from Wuhan. We also must be careful that some deaths attributed to Wuhan had other actual causes, as Robert noted. The problems with raw data and corrupted data is that we could draw incorrect conclusions that drive bad future actions (such as lockdowns).

    As Briggs writes:

    Even given late reporting, it’s clear there is no longer any crisis. By which I do not mean there are no deaths. There are always deaths! It’s only now, at this point in our history, we have the expectation there should be none.

  • Edward: Excellent work by Briggs. Thank you.

  • wayne

    The New York Times– you mean, the holocaust-denying, Stalin-loving, NYT’s? (“All the Communist Propaganda, Fit to Print.”
    And let us not forget the Chattanooga Times, controlled by the Ochs-Sulzberger family until 1999. Funny thing was– we had a boatload of lynching’s in our South, in the last century, and the Chattanooga Times didn’t much care.

  • Cotour

    Yes, Wayne, Communist propaganda. And I am not saying here that Putin is not a player and is not pushing his propaganda, he certainly is and he is working in his and Russia’s own international interests, and that is the game. But.


    And I sent a big still warm jar, that included several Italian sausages to my, “Elitist”, Ivy League, Liberal / Leftist / Globalist friend and his girl friend because we have not been able to get together as usual because of the virus situation. Before the virus I would usually cook for up to about 10 people and serve them in my store. I know both he and she loves a big sauce which is cooked low and slow for most of the day. It came out as expected.

    He wrote this morning:

    “Wow. That was better than my mother’s. Thanks for another sumptuous meal in the Bronx. Many thanks.”

    I replied, keeping in mind that he sees EVERYTHING in terms of Trump working directly for Putin:

    “Putin had the same reaction:

    “Wowsky, Швейные (Thats, Cotour in Russian) !” He said.

    “I must share my favorite Borscht recipe with you. We will get together after president Trump delivers your entire country to me after the coming election.

    I will let you ride my pet bear. All the best, Vlad”. And I added: You are very welcome.

    If you can’t beat them one way, try another. And trust me I beat the day lights out of him in every discussion that we have ever had about politics and Conservative / the Constitution V Democrat / Globalism / Leftist agenda. And in the end he usually must concede to me.

    One way or another I am determined that he will see the light. He like many others are broken Americans and must be redirected in their thinking. If not then there is no hope, their attitude is suicidal and they are unable to see that.

  • Chris

    To add to Wayne’s point – The New York Times – who had the Pulitzer winning Walter Duranty. Duranty wrote how the Ukraine was NOT having a (Soviet imposed) famine in the early 1930’s. On one John Batchelor episode I learned that Duranty also received an award from the Soviet Ambassador himself for his service the the Soviet state.

    The Pulitzer was never revoked per the attached Wiki listing. From that article Sulzberger states:
    In a letter accompanying the report, The New York Times publisher Arthur Ochs Sulzberger, Jr. called Duranty’s work “slovenly” and said it “should have been recognized for what it was by his editors and by his Pulitzer judges seven decades ago.”
    An interesting quote, never accepting the Duranty work for the full fabrication that it was but calling it slovenly or slipshod -NOT deliberate and calculated as it was.

  • Andrew_W

    How original Wayne: Don’t like the message, attack the messenger. The sources the NYT uses are at the bottom of the page.

  • commodude

    Why are the lockdowns and restrictions still in place?

    Democrats and RINOs doing the bidding of their ChiCom paymasters:

  • wayne

    If the NYT’s told me 2+2 = 4, I’d wonder what lie they were getting ready to tell me.

    Ref: Walter Duranty– Stalin gave him a car, a house, money, and girlfriend that he impregnated. In turn he delivered Stalins utopian delusions to the readers of the NYT’s.
    Ref: The Chattanooga Times–the Ochs-Sulzberger families ran the paper at the height of the old jim crow south, they were all-in and proud of it. They never objected to any lynching’s.

  • Andrew M. Winte

    Howdy all,

    I thought I would back track a couple of days to post this. Just saw it today 26 Aug 2020 on Zero Hedge no less.

    Lock downs a monumental mistake on a GLOBAL scale. GSUA

  • Edward

    Steve Richter,
    William Briggs has another update with a plot that goes back to 2010. See the last graph in this essay:

    I notice that the “slope” of the deaths seems greater than the population increase would suggest, but I suspect that is due to the aging of the baby boom generation.

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