This essay is going to include a number of graphs [data source], showing the daily numbers related to the Wuhan virus since the beginning of the epidemic. All show that the epidemic is truly tapering off or ending, regardless of where you live. All also strongly suggest that the lock downs, restrictions, mask mandates, and the many other odious rules that were imposed initially for just a few weeks to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed but have remained in force now for many months should immediately be cancelled or removed.
And yet, these restrictions remain, in one form or another, with some rules (such as the mandate to wear masks) being expanded, sometimes to the point of idiocy. That they remain proves again that those lock downs, restrictions, mask mandates and other rules had little to do with the disease. Instead their goal was to impose new authoritarian rules on the citizenry, meant to establish new precedents of power and control for the petty dictators who wish to rule us like servants.
The first graph to the right shows the daily deaths across the entire United States. As you can see, after reaching a peak in late April, the disease began fading with the coming of warmer weather, as these seasonal flu-like diseases always do. Then, beginning in early July we saw a slow new rise that peaked in early August and has since begun tapering off.
The second peak is puzzling for a seasonal disease, but we might be able to explain it by thinking about the consequences of the lock downs. Normally a seasonal disease hits, and than fades. Normally however there are no lock downs and restrictions, which means the virus has a chance to quickly spread throughout the population, reach herd immunity, and then die.
This time however we decided to slow the disease’s spread, which means that at some point, when those restrictions were eased (not removed) we were guaranteed to see a new uptick. This is what has happened, though the uptick as should be expected is relatively small, nowhere near as severe as the initial peak.
In fact, to understand the true impact of this virus it is essential to recognize several very important components of these death numbers. First, these numbers are likely exaggerated, by at least 25%. Hospitals get more money if they claim a death came from COVID-19, so they have a strong incentive to assign the cause of death to COVID-19, even when it was only a minor factor. There is ample evidence this has been happening.
These extra benefits have also meant that COVID-19 has cured the flu! This year will see the fewest flu deaths ever, now estimated to be only 6,605 total, an absurdly low number compared to every other year, ever. In other words, of the 168,000 or so deaths assigned to the Wuhan flu a large percentage, maybe as much as half, might actually be cases that would have died (or did die) from the flu.
All told, these numbers tell us that the total deaths this year are simply not much higher than in past years, that they have either been overstated or assigned incorrectly to COVID-19. A hard look instead suggests actually that this year’s epidemic was essentially nothing more than a somewhat worse flu season, painful, but hardly justifying the panic that we’ve seen.
Second, the disease’s mortality continues to be confined almost entirely with the aged sick, with 80% of all COVID-19 deaths occurring in people over 65. Like the flu, the Wuhan flu carries practically no threat for the young and the healthy. If anything, the sooner they can all get infected, the sooner the epidemic will end, actually producing the fewest deaths because the healthy population will choke it off before it can reach the vulnerable parts of the population.
Unfortunately, we did not let this happen, and the consequences for the older population is tragic, as shown by the next two graphs.
The first graph shows the daily deaths in New York from COVID-19, while the second shows these numbers for New Jersey. (The spike of deaths on May 7 in New York is because that state suddenly added a whole slew of new deaths, under suspicious circumstances.) These two states alone account for more than 24% of all the deaths nationwide. Both states are densely populated, and both show trends that strongly suggest that all the lock downs, mask mandates, and rules made little difference in the spread of the disease. In these places, there was no way for government to really isolate the infected population, so the disease spread fast through the entire population, and quickly reached herd immunity. As a result neither state showed any evidence of that second wave this summer. Instead, the number of daily deaths for both has generally been only a handful, throughout the summer.
Worse however have been the deaths in their elderly population, especially in New York. Rather than protect the elderly from the virus, government policies there forced infected patients into nursing homes, where the disease quickly spread to the most vulnerable population, killing thousands who simply did not have to die. For this reason, the deaths per million per day in New York was one of the highest in the world, far exceeding places like Sweden, which imposed no lock downs at all.
Once again however we must emphasize that the bulk of those deaths were still in the aged and sick population. For the general population of both states, the virus posed literally no threat. Practically no one young or healthy died from it, even those who got sick.
In these states the disease has now run its course, and no longer poses any threat. Yet, with both states the lock downs, the mask mandates, and the severe quarantine rules remain, for literally no reason related to the virus. Can anyone guess than what the real reason for those totalitarian rules might be?
Next we look at another big population state, California. Here, the mainstream Democratic Party press has made a big deal about the rise in COVID-19 cases beginning in mid-June. That shrill panic over this rise has however always failed to put the numbers in context, as this graph shows.
During the entire epidemic, the number of daily deaths in California has never risen significantly. In the summer the numbers averaged above a hundred per day for the first time, but there was no major change. In general, the rise in cases indicated not that the epidemic was getting worse but that the virus itself was simply not dangerous. A lot of people could become infected and either show no symptoms, or quickly get over it without much harm. As with other states, the bulk of the population dying continued to be the elderly sick, threatened by this virus in the same manner this population is always threatened by seasonal diseases like the flu and pneumonia.
Unlike New York, however, California apparently did a reasonable job protecting its elderly sick, which is likely why the death numbers have remained relatively low. Instead, the state has seen the virus spread through the younger population, and with the recent decline in new cases has probably now reached herd immunity. The epidemic here is also fading.
Finally let’s look at Arizona, which has followed almost the same pattern of cases vs deaths as California. The daily death toll has generally remained low, even as the cases suddenly peaked during the summer months. There was a rise, but nothing beyond what you would expect during any ordinary flu season. Like California once the most severe lock downs were eased in May the disease was finally able to do what it was always going to do, spread quickly through the general population. That spread, as in all the other states that I have described, caused little harm, as this virus is simply harmless to the healthy general population.
In Arizona however the daily number of hospitalizations shows a very unnatural outburst in July. Beforehand and since daily hospitalizations averaged about fifty per day. Suddenly, the numbers rose to the thousands, a rise that is simply not creditable. This is the same kind of suspicious data tampering we saw in New York and New Jersey, and suggests the hospitals had suddenly re-categorized almost their entire patient load, assigning it to COVID-19 in order to capture the higher fees those cases would garner.
Regardless, the clear decline in new cases in Arizona for the past month once again shows that the epidemic is fading. It is over. Time to go back to normal.
But of course, normality means the politicians will no longer have the same power over the citizenry. This cannot be accepted, so the mask mandates and the revised lock downs must continue. Notice in fact how in all four states, even as the signs showed that the epidemic was fading the politicians increased their mask mandates. There is no science to justify these mandates. The research into the effectiveness of masks — properly used — to stop the virus’s spread is very inconclusive. Worse, the research into the improper use of masks suggest they are probably harmful, and might even encourage the spread of diseases. And since almost everyone uses their masks improperly, putting an unsanitary pathogen bomb on their face again and again, these mandates make no sense, under any condition.
But they remain, and have been continually expanded. Anyone want to guess why?
I will tell you if you can’t guess. We are now serfs to the state, our lives constricted by its desires to tell us how to live, in sometimes the most trivial manner. For now and into the future for generations, our political leaders will have the power to clamp down on us, shoving their boots onto our faces, whenever any minor flu epidemic might appear on the horizon.
Worst of all, too many people seem okay with this. To go back to normal means we all finally admit that COVID-19 is no longer a threat, that in fact it was never that much of a threat. This too is unacceptable. Americans have fallen in love with their fear of COVID-19, and no facts are going to dissuade them from giving up that love.
I must unfortunately ask you for your financial support because I do not depend on ads and rely entirely on the generosity of readers to keep Behind the Black running. You can either make a one time donation for whatever amount you wish, or you sign up for a monthly subscription ranging from $2 to $15 through Paypal or $3 to $50 through Patreon.
Your support will allow me to continue covering science and culture as I have for the past twenty years, independent and free from any outside influence.
Your support is even more essential to me because I not only keep this site free from advertisements, I do not use the corrupt social media companies like Google, Twitter, and Facebook to promote my work. I depend wholly on the direct support of my readers.
You can provide that support to Behind The Black with a contribution via Patreon or PayPal. To use Patreon, go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation. For PayPal click one of the following buttons:
If Patreon or Paypal don't work for you, you can support Behind The Black directly by sending your donation by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman, to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
Cortaro, AZ 85652
Or you can donate by using Zelle through your bank. You will need to give my name and email address (found at the bottom of the "About" page). The best part of this electronic option is that no fees will be deducted! What you donate will be what I receive.