Blue Origin releases results of investigation into New Shepard flight failure
Blue Origin today released by email its results of its investigation into the New Shepard flight failure that occurred in September 2022, when the launch abort system activated soon after launch and released the capsule early so that it could return safely to Earth.
[T]he MIT [investigation team] determined the direct cause of the mishap to be a structural fatigue failure of the BE-3PM engine nozzle during powered flight. The structural fatigue was caused by operational temperatures that exceeded the expected and analyzed values of the nozzle material. Testing of the BE-3PM engine began immediately following the mishap and established that the flight configuration of the nozzle operated at hotter temperatures than previous design configurations. Forensic evaluation of the recovered nozzle fragments also showed clear evidence of thermal damage and hot streaks resulting from increased operating temperatures. The fatigue location on the flight nozzle is aligned with a persistent hot streak identified during the investigation.
The MIT determined that design changes made to the engine’s boundary layer cooling system accounted for an increase in nozzle heating and explained the hot streaks present. Blue Origin is implementing corrective actions, including design changes to the combustion chamber and operating parameters, which have reduced engine nozzle bulk and hot-streak temperatures. Additional design changes to the nozzle have improved structural performance under thermal and dynamic loads.
In other words, the company had made some design changes to the engine prior to launch, and these caused the hot spots that destroyed the nozzle.
The company’s email says it is fixing this issue and plans to launch “soon”, but issued no date.
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Blue Origin today released by email its results of its investigation into the New Shepard flight failure that occurred in September 2022, when the launch abort system activated soon after launch and released the capsule early so that it could return safely to Earth.
[T]he MIT [investigation team] determined the direct cause of the mishap to be a structural fatigue failure of the BE-3PM engine nozzle during powered flight. The structural fatigue was caused by operational temperatures that exceeded the expected and analyzed values of the nozzle material. Testing of the BE-3PM engine began immediately following the mishap and established that the flight configuration of the nozzle operated at hotter temperatures than previous design configurations. Forensic evaluation of the recovered nozzle fragments also showed clear evidence of thermal damage and hot streaks resulting from increased operating temperatures. The fatigue location on the flight nozzle is aligned with a persistent hot streak identified during the investigation.
The MIT determined that design changes made to the engine’s boundary layer cooling system accounted for an increase in nozzle heating and explained the hot streaks present. Blue Origin is implementing corrective actions, including design changes to the combustion chamber and operating parameters, which have reduced engine nozzle bulk and hot-streak temperatures. Additional design changes to the nozzle have improved structural performance under thermal and dynamic loads.
In other words, the company had made some design changes to the engine prior to launch, and these caused the hot spots that destroyed the nozzle.
The company’s email says it is fixing this issue and plans to launch “soon”, but issued no date.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
I wonder how the average customer would have handled the 13Gs of the escape system? Given the mortgage-sized cost of a ticket, one would have to assume an average age on the high side of “29”, leading to an answer of “not that well”.
Having regularly pulled 4Gs in aerobatics, I sure wouldn’t want to try more than 3X that at my current “29 +++” age!
13Gs! I didn’t know it was so high. I assume it’s peak Gs – for a very short time.
Got me wondering about how many Gs an average person (not Col. Stapp) could safely withstand. Didn’t know where to look so I turned to some AI:
“how many g’s can an average human safely withstand? For example during a rocket abort”
ChatGPT:
“The maximum amount of acceleration, or g-forces, that an average human can safely withstand depends on various factors such as the duration of the acceleration, the direction of the acceleration, the individual’s age, health, and physical condition.
However, as a general rule, the human body can typically withstand a maximum of around 5 g’s for a brief period (less than a minute) without sustaining permanent damage. Some highly trained individuals, such as pilots or astronauts, may be able to tolerate higher g-forces for short periods due to their training and physical conditioning.
During a rocket abort, the acceleration can be very high and can vary depending on the specific abort scenario. For example, a typical maximum acceleration during a Soyuz spacecraft abort can reach up to 17 g’s for a short period, while the maximum acceleration during a Space Shuttle abort was around 3 g’s.
It’s important to note that even if an individual can tolerate high g-forces for a brief period, sustained exposure to high g-forces can lead to serious health problems such as vision impairment, loss of consciousness, and damage to internal organs. Therefore, it’s critical to design safety systems and procedures that minimize exposure to high g-forces during rocket launches and abort scenarios.”
Bing chat:
“The maximum g-force that a human can withstand depends on many factors such as age, gender, physical condition, and duration of exposure. In general, an individual can withstand anywhere between 2 to 5 Gs and be relatively unaffected (apart from an exciting rush of adrenaline, that is!) 1. However, when undergoing an acceleration of 9 G’s, your body feels nine times heavier than usual, blood rushes to the feet, and the heart can’t pump hard enough to bring this heavier blood to the brain. This can only be sustained for a few seconds 2. Most of us can withstand up to 4-6G 23. It’s difficult to calculate the exact level of G-force that would kill a human because the duration of exposure is such an important factor. There are isolated incidents of humans surviving abnormally high G-forces, most notably the Air Force officer John Stapp, who demonstrated a human can withstand 46.2 G’s 4”
They made changes to the engine boundary layer cooling system and didn’t test before launch?
That seems foolish, perhaps too much reliance on unvalidated computer modeling?
If they get this fixed & re-launched before the last quarter of 2025, I will eat my hat! Blue Origin should change their name to “Delay Origin”!
Tolerable G forces depend on your orientation. Seated, upright, without a G-suit 4G is tolerable by most people for maybe tens of seconds. Front to back G lying on your back is much more tolerable as the blood doesn’t rush out of your head.
Personal experience was 5.5G caused a grey out even with G-suit. After learning to push the suit full inflation button, better and didn’t grey out.
Due to fortunate work circumstances and times that weren’t so anxious about risk and liability, I managed to score quite a few hours in the back seat of the Macchi MB-326 jet trainer of the Royal Australian Air Force.